2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[gh123]

Yeah, you switch Luka with Ingles or Covington and we still get to keep our top5 pick next summer, no doubt about that.

[Bob8]

And what’s impact of ingles in his club. Has Utah really that much worse roster than Dallas?

It's different. Ingles has elite complementary skills. Which means put him on a good team, and he elevates them. But his limitations means he doesn't do as much for bad teams. Luka on the other hand is a primary option kind of guy. So he can lift bad teams more than Ingles is likely to. But put Luka on a contender right now and he'd not being playing starter's minutes. He'd likely not be closing games. Because those teams have better options than Luka.

Their impact is different because their games and roles are so different. But Ingles is able to have more positive impact overall in his role than Luka is in his right now. If Luka becomes what we all think he will, he will be having far more impact than Ingles. He's just not there yet.

Yup. If you ask Covington to be the #1 guy on a team its not going to be pretty. But you ask him to be the ultimate 3&D wing, the dude has a massive impact on the game. What Chuck and I are talking about are the impacts these players are having on their teams this year. Doncic is the better individual talent for sure, give him a year or 2 and he will be making more of an impact than these players as well. But there is a reason why vets like Covington and Ingles are so valued in the league, its because of the impact they can have on a team, even if it doesnt show up on raw stats.

How valuable exactly is Ingles? What will you get for him tomorrow? It looks to me that even today, value of Luka is incomparable with Ingles or Covington. Philadelphia wants to be contender and they trade Covington and Saric, sure for a star, but it looks he wasn’t that valuable for them. On the other hand RPM says Covington is much better than Butler.

[Texas Chuck]

If I remember right, bench was pretty good last year too.

They were good. The 2nd most-used lineup was Dirk/Barea/Powell/Yogi/Devin and it was plus 20 per 100. But the starters were an almost unfathomable -18 and of course they played more minutes than the bench.

The starters this year still aren't winning their match-ups, but they are managing since that awful start not to dig too big a hole for the bench to carry them through.

My point is that bench plays more or less the same and Mavs are 7 wins up. Meaning Luka and Jordan made the difference, big difference. On the other hand we have Utah, who is much worse than last year, meaning great Ingles cannot help much. I know that basketball is not math, but forgetting all numerical stats and believe only in RPM is somewhat funny too. Who in starting 5 would made 18 points more, if there was no Luka? Who would made clutch shots in which Luka was first before last game? Where in Rpm you can see this clutch shots?

Oh no question Luka has helped and I get what you are saying about the improvement of the starters being a big difference and you aren't wrong. But those starters still are getting outscored and the bench is still crushing. Seems wrong to give the bulk of the credit to Doncic and DJ to me.

But Luka is way ahead of where he has any right to be. He should be a major negative with his usage and minutes playing primarily against first units and always being on the court down the stretch. Remember how last year, heck even some this year, Rick benched DSJ late for JJ in an effort to get a win because the offense was so much better? Well one of the reasons he's done that far less is because he can trust Luka.

I'm not trying to knock Luka. I love Luka. I love Luka.

[Texas Chuck]

How valuable exactly is Ingles? What will you get for him tomorrow? It looks to me that even today, value of Luka is incomparable with Ingles or Covington. Philadelphia wants to be contender and they trade Covington and Saric, sure for a star, but it looks he wasn’t that valuable for them. On the other hand RPM says Covington is much better than Butler.

Trade value Luka has way more than Ingles or Covington. But that's a very different question than who is having more positive impact right now.

Also remember RPM and RAPM aren't supposed to tell you who the best player is. They are supposed to tell you about the impact they are having in their specific circumstances. For instance Dwight Powell measures out very good by those stats, but nobody thinks he has more trade value than Ayton or Bagley players who don't match his current impact but who have far more potential.

[Duke4life831]

If I remember right, bench was pretty good last year too.

They were good. The 2nd most-used lineup was Dirk/Barea/Powell/Yogi/Devin and it was plus 20 per 100. But the starters were an almost unfathomable -18 and of course they played more minutes than the bench.

The starters this year still aren't winning their match-ups, but they are managing since that awful start not to dig too big a hole for the bench to carry them through.

My point is that bench plays more or less the same and Mavs are 7 wins up. Meaning Luka and Jordan made the difference, big difference. On the other hand we have Utah, who is much worse than last year, meaning great Ingles cannot help much. I know that basketball is not math, but forgetting all numerical stats and believe only in RPM is somewhat funny too. Who in starting 5 would made 18 points more, if there was no Luka? Who would made clutch shots in which Luka was first before last game? Where in Rpm you can see this clutch shots?

I dont think anyone here is stating RPM as gospel. In my previous post I talked about how I dont view RPM as gospel. But these metrics that try to show impact, arent all wrong though. Again no one is talking individual talent or trade value or anything like that. No one is also saying that Luka hasnt had his moments. What we are talking about is overall impact on the game this year so far.

Ingles has a higher BPM/VORP/WS/48. When Ingles is on the court, Utah is a +14 pts per 100 possessions. All of those numbers are metrics trying to show impact a player has on a team. Again its not on Ingles that the rest of the team have played subpar this year. Same goes for Covington with all of those stats. Marcus Smart is another example of a player like this. You look at Marcus Smart's raw stats and they're bad. You watch a Boston game and you come away thinking, ya those advanced stats are right, that dude has a major impact for Boston, even with the poor raw stats.

What we(or at least myself) is trying to say is Doncic seems to have all the makings of a guy that is going to be that #1 dude that puts up great raw stats and has a huge impact on the game. He is not there yet though, the flashes smack you across the face, but he still has plenty of the rookie mistakes, he doesnt do all the small things like the Covington/Ingles/Smarts bring to the game yet. He shouldnt be expected to either becaue he is a 19 year old rookie. If you are a 19 year old rookie and youre above average for your position compared to the other NBA starters, that is a tremendous sign. Also no one is saying he is bad or hasnt helped Dallas get to where theyre at.

[Bob8]

They were good. The 2nd most-used lineup was Dirk/Barea/Powell/Yogi/Devin and it was plus 20 per 100. But the starters were an almost unfathomable -18 and of course they played more minutes than the bench.

The starters this year still aren't winning their match-ups, but they are managing since that awful start not to dig too big a hole for the bench to carry them through.

My point is that bench plays more or less the same and Mavs are 7 wins up. Meaning Luka and Jordan made the difference, big difference. On the other hand we have Utah, who is much worse than last year, meaning great Ingles cannot help much. I know that basketball is not math, but forgetting all numerical stats and believe only in RPM is somewhat funny too. Who in starting 5 would made 18 points more, if there was no Luka? Who would made clutch shots in which Luka was first before last game? Where in Rpm you can see this clutch shots?

Oh no question Luka has helped and I get what you are saying about the improvement of the starters being a big difference and you aren't wrong. But those starters still are getting outscored and the bench is still crushing. Seems wrong to give the bulk of the credit to Doncic and DJ to me.

But Luka is way ahead of where he has any right to be. He should be a major negative with his usage and minutes playing primarily against first units and always being on the court down the stretch. Remember how last year, heck even some this year, Rick benched DSJ late for JJ in an effort to get a win because the offense was so much better? Well one of the reasons he's done that far less is because he can trust Luka.

I'm not trying to knock Luka. I love Luka. I love Luka.

I understand what you’re saying, but discarding raw stats, team record, team improvement, eye test and belief only in RPM looks wrong.

[Duke4life831]

My point is that bench plays more or less the same and Mavs are 7 wins up. Meaning Luka and Jordan made the difference, big difference. On the other hand we have Utah, who is much worse than last year, meaning great Ingles cannot help much. I know that basketball is not math, but forgetting all numerical stats and believe only in RPM is somewhat funny too. Who in starting 5 would made 18 points more, if there was no Luka? Who would made clutch shots in which Luka was first before last game? Where in Rpm you can see this clutch shots?

Oh no question Luka has helped and I get what you are saying about the improvement of the starters being a big difference and you aren't wrong. But those starters still are getting outscored and the bench is still crushing. Seems wrong to give the bulk of the credit to Doncic and DJ to me.

But Luka is way ahead of where he has any right to be. He should be a major negative with his usage and minutes playing primarily against first units and always being on the court down the stretch. Remember how last year, heck even some this year, Rick benched DSJ late for JJ in an effort to get a win because the offense was so much better? Well one of the reasons he's done that far less is because he can trust Luka.

I'm not trying to knock Luka. I love Luka. I love Luka.

I understand what you’re saying, but discarding raw stats, team record, team improvement, eye test and belief only in RPM looks wrong.

Who is doing this though? Covington has made a huge impact on team improvement. The impact he has made defensively is huge and Minny are 8-4 in the games he has played for them. Eye test also backs this up, its hard to watch a Minny game and not be blown away at the impact Covington makes especially defensively. Same goes for a guy like Smart. Same goes for a guy like Ingles. Its not just RPM and thats it. Its all of the advanced metrics plus eye test and every other thing available.

[Texas Chuck]

I understand what you’re saying, but discarding raw stats, team record, team improvement, eye test and belief only in RPM looks wrong.

You and I are in total agreement here. I believe we should take all available information into account and never rely on any one measure when evaluating players and teams.

[Bob8]

Oh no question Luka has helped and I get what you are saying about the improvement of the starters being a big difference and you aren't wrong. But those starters still are getting outscored and the bench is still crushing. Seems wrong to give the bulk of the credit to Doncic and DJ to me.

But Luka is way ahead of where he has any right to be. He should be a major negative with his usage and minutes playing primarily against first units and always being on the court down the stretch. Remember how last year, heck even some this year, Rick benched DSJ late for JJ in an effort to get a win because the offense was so much better? Well one of the reasons he's done that far less is because he can trust Luka.

I'm not trying to knock Luka. I love Luka. I love Luka.

I understand what you’re saying, but discarding raw stats, team record, team improvement, eye test and belief only in RPM looks wrong.

Who is doing this though? Covington has made a huge impact on team improvement. The impact he has made defensively is huge and Minny are 8-4 in the games he has played for them. Eye test also backs this up, its hard to watch a Minny game and not be blown away at the impact Covington makes especially defensively. Same goes for a guy like Smart. Same goes for a guy like Ingles. Its not just RPM and thats it. Its all of the advanced metrics plus eye test and every other thing available.

and somehow you’re forgetting that Dallas made the biggest improvement of all teams in Nba.

[Duke4life831]

I understand what you’re saying, but discarding raw stats, team record, team improvement, eye test and belief only in RPM looks wrong.

Who is doing this though? Covington has made a huge impact on team improvement. The impact he has made defensively is huge and Minny are 8-4 in the games he has played for them. Eye test also backs this up, its hard to watch a Minny game and not be blown away at the impact Covington makes especially defensively. Same goes for a guy like Smart. Same goes for a guy like Ingles. Its not just RPM and thats it. Its all of the advanced metrics plus eye test and every other thing available.

and somehow you’re forgetting that Dallas made the biggest improvement of all teams in Nba.

Im not forgetting Dallas improvement. But like with any other team, the majority of time their improvement/regression isnt usually all on one player. Going back to the Minny being 8-4 example, another big reason Minny is 8-4 in the games Covington has played, is KAT and Wiggins playing much better since Butler left. Its not just Doncic that has made Dallas better. Finney-Smith is playing far better than he did last year, DSJ has played better than he did last year, Barnes has hit the 3 at a higher rate than he did last year, Matthews is scoring at a much more efficient rate than last year, you guys added DJ. There are a lot of reasons and Doncic is one of those reasons for sure, he is a big reason, no one is denying that.

[Bob8]

Who is doing this though? Covington has made a huge impact on team improvement. The impact he has made defensively is huge and Minny are 8-4 in the games he has played for them. Eye test also backs this up, its hard to watch a Minny game and not be blown away at the impact Covington makes especially defensively. Same goes for a guy like Smart. Same goes for a guy like Ingles. Its not just RPM and thats it. Its all of the advanced metrics plus eye test and every other thing available.

and somehow you’re forgetting that Dallas made the biggest improvement of all teams in Nba.

Im not forgetting Dallas improvement. But like with any other team, the majority of time their improvement/regression isnt usually all on one player. Going back to the Minny being 8-4 example, another big reason Minny is 8-4 in the games Covington has played, is KAT and Wiggins playing much better since Butler left. Its not just Doncic that has made Dallas better. Finney-Smith is playing far better than he did last year, DSJ has played better than he did last year, Barnes has hit the 3 at a higher rate than he did last year, Matthews is scoring at a much more efficient rate than last year, you guys added DJ. There are a lot of reasons and Doncic is one of those reasons for sure, he is a big reason, no one is denying that.

Let’s make Luka/Ingles comparison

Raw stats, Luka
Team improvement, Luka
Clutch shooting, Luka
Eye test, offense Luka, defense Ingles
RPM Ingles
Your conclusion, Ingles better player.

It’s obvious, at least for me, that RPM has far the biggest weight in your decision making. It’s your right of course, but I strongly disagree with that kind of evaluation.

[Johnny Firpo]

When you use the actual numbers of 17/6/4/1, there are 9. I'm a fan of Doncic, and think he should have gone first in the draft, but he's not a real MVP candidate this year. Not when there is someone is putting up 28/7/7/1.

Can we stop derailing the thread? No one thinks he should get MVP consideration, not even the poster above, who admitted it was a joke.

[Duke4life831]

and somehow you’re forgetting that Dallas made the biggest improvement of all teams in Nba.

Im not forgetting Dallas improvement. But like with any other team, the majority of time their improvement/regression isnt usually all on one player. Going back to the Minny being 8-4 example, another big reason Minny is 8-4 in the games Covington has played, is KAT and Wiggins playing much better since Butler left. Its not just Doncic that has made Dallas better. Finney-Smith is playing far better than he did last year, DSJ has played better than he did last year, Barnes has hit the 3 at a higher rate than he did last year, Matthews is scoring at a much more efficient rate than last year, you guys added DJ. There are a lot of reasons and Doncic is one of those reasons for sure, he is a big reason, no one is denying that.

Let’s make Luka/Ingles comparison

Raw stats, Luka
Team improvement, Luka
Clutch shooting, Luka
Eye test, offense Luka, defense Ingles
RPM Ingles
Your conclusion, Ingles better player.

It’s obvious, at least for me, that RPM has far the biggest weight in your decision making. It’s your right of course, but I strongly disagree with that kind of evaluation.

Again the team improvement to Luka is a weird thing when that is a team thing, but whatever.

Also no I wont say eye test offense for Luka. Ingles has 20 more assists while turning it over 20 less times, Ingles is the more efficient scorer as well. And since you said "clutch shooting as one of your categories (dont know why those 5 things are the base for comparison). How about

Defensive versatility - Ingles
TS% - Ingles
OWS - Ingles
DWS - Ingles
WS - Ingles
DBPM - Ingles
OBPM - Ingles
BPM - Ingles
VORP - Ingles
On/Off - Ingles (with a 21 point difference between the two).

I can break things down too to give Ingles more categories. This is just becoming a pointless conversation and Ive said my peace and Im done completely side tracking this thread and Im bowing out.

[HotelVitale]

How many players are 18/7/4/1 right now this season?

Spoiler:

7. 9 without the steals.

His turnovers are 2.3/g last 5 games, and 2.8/g last 10 games. Assists are climbing towards 5.0.
Mavs had anything but a hot start of the season.
His defense is actually solid.
He's not MVP (of the NBA), that is true, but saying he's just an average starter is a bad take.

I feel like duke4life and Chuck explained the rest of my thought well: being a solid starter is great for a rookie--there are 30 teams in the league starting 5 players, so being average within that means you're still about the 70-80th best player in the league and that seems like a very fair place to put Doncic based on his overall play. Rookies usually don't get that high right away, and Doncic will almost definitely climb those rankings as he adjusts more. But you'd have to do a lot of gymnastics to make a good argument for him being better than that overall so far this year.

I also wanted to give some advice avoiding those stupid groupings like 'only 5 players ever to average...' They're totally arbitrary and seem to say a lot more than they do: for instance, you could adjust the pts down and the assists up (say 12pts/7assists) and get a totally different group of apparently unique players that doesn't include Doncic. And Doncic would be on none of the 'only 5 players ever...' lists for anything involving blocked shots or low TOs. So they're a weak thing to bring out in an argument, and there are much better ways to talk about a player's overall impact. (Also, as someone who sat through the entire 76ers Process, I saw so many of these that they all seem like jokes now--Tony Wroten was one of 5 players ever to post 15/6/6/2, for example, and J Okafor was one of three centers under 20 to average 20pts on 60%+ TS, etc (both of those are real examples)).

[Bob8]

Im not forgetting Dallas improvement. But like with any other team, the majority of time their improvement/regression isnt usually all on one player. Going back to the Minny being 8-4 example, another big reason Minny is 8-4 in the games Covington has played, is KAT and Wiggins playing much better since Butler left. Its not just Doncic that has made Dallas better. Finney-Smith is playing far better than he did last year, DSJ has played better than he did last year, Barnes has hit the 3 at a higher rate than he did last year, Matthews is scoring at a much more efficient rate than last year, you guys added DJ. There are a lot of reasons and Doncic is one of those reasons for sure, he is a big reason, no one is denying that.

Let’s make Luka/Ingles comparison

Raw stats, Luka
Team improvement, Luka
Clutch shooting, Luka
Eye test, offense Luka, defense Ingles
RPM Ingles
Your conclusion, Ingles better player.

It’s obvious, at least for me, that RPM has far the biggest weight in your decision making. It’s your right of course, but I strongly disagree with that kind of evaluation.

Again the team improvement to Luka is a weird thing when that is a team thing, but whatever.

Also no I wont say eye test offense for Luka. Ingles has 20 more assists while turning it over 20 less times, Ingles is the more efficient scorer as well. And since you said "clutch shooting as one of your categories (dont know why those 5 things are the base for comparison). How about

Defensive versatility - Ingles
TS% - Ingles
OWS - Ingles
DWS - Ingles
WS - Ingles
DBPM - Ingles
OBPM - Ingles
BPM - Ingles
VORP - Ingles
On/Off - Ingles (with a 21 point difference between the two).

I can break things down too to give Ingles more categories. This is just becoming a pointless conversation and Ive said my peace and Im done completely side tracking this thread and Im bowing out.

20 assists more? maybe you should look how many games they played.

Man, Ingles is superstar based only on advanced stats. almost KD rang. Marjanovic is much better than Embiid, Covington better than Butler. But I highly doubt the teams are evaluating them like that.

[Bob8]

How many players are 18/7/4/1 right now this season?

Spoiler:

7. 9 without the steals.

His turnovers are 2.3/g last 5 games, and 2.8/g last 10 games. Assists are climbing towards 5.0.
Mavs had anything but a hot start of the season.
His defense is actually solid.
He's not MVP (of the NBA), that is true, but saying he's just an average starter is a bad take.

I feel like duke4life and Chuck explained the rest of my thought well: being a solid starter is great for a rookie--there are 30 teams in the league starting 5 players, so being average within that means you're still about the 70-80th best player in the league and that seems like a very fair place to put Doncic based on his overall play. Rookies usually don't get that high right away, and Doncic will almost definitely climb those rankings as he adjusts more. But you'd have to do a lot of gymnastics to make a good argument for him being better than that overall so far this year.

I also wanted to give some advice avoiding those stupid groupings like 'only 5 players ever to average...' They're totally arbitrary and seem to say a lot more than they do: for instance, you could adjust the pts down and the assists up (say 12pts/7assists) and get a totally different group of apparently unique players that doesn't include Doncic. And Doncic would be on none of the 'only 5 players ever...' lists for anything involving blocked shots or low TOs. So they're a weak thing to bring out in an argument, and there are much better ways to talk about a player's overall impact. (Also, as someone who sat through the entire 76ers Process, I saw so many of these that ended up really really badly that they all seem like jokes now--Tony Wroten was one of 5 rookies ever to post 15/6/6, for example, and J Okafor was one of three centers under 20 to average 20pts on 60%+ TS, etc.)

Can we agree that Luka is probably the best player of Dallas? If we can, you’re saying that the best player of 14-11 team is 70-80 best player in the league?

[HotelVitale]

Not really. He has A) .6 DBPM and B) 55.2 TS%.

A) all defensive stats are shaky but DBPM is especially so, and he doesn't look good in most d stats. In RPM he's at -0.63, which ranks him somewhere in the 300s out of rotation guys in the league this year. Also I've only watched like 4 games but he's looked pretty obviously not a killer on defense yet; that doesn't mean he sucks or is incompetent or gets pushed around all game, it just means that relative to all the other huge, fast, strong NBA players he's not that great.

B) 55.2% TS is a little below recent average (which iirc is usually about 56%).

[magnumt]

Watch on YouTube

Confidence rising

Whoa! I wish he didn't get injured. Knicks fans seen to love him. I need to watch more games

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Helluva an outing by Knox!

--Mags

[Mr B]

While we are all amazed by Doncic (ok, I'm not so much because I'm following him for three years already ), I think other Dallas rookie deserve mention in this topic - Jalen Brunson.

With DSJ missing because of injury, Brunson started last few matches and he also played huge part in last win against Houston and in todays easy win against Orlando.

It looks like Doncic and Brunson fit perfectly on court...

Exactly my thoughts, I was trying to think of a max. ceiling for him, do you have any comp? Maybe Avery Johnson? Or could he be better?

Last night Derek Harper was comparing him to Derek Fisher. Both have/had an old school type of game.

[Mr B]

MVP? LOL. People need to calm down.

By people I hope you mean a single poster. Anyway, Luka had a terrible shooting but a great playmaking night, showing a glimpse of what he could become one day on a nightly basis, when he puts it all together. Good stuff.

DJ freaking missed 3 easy dunks/layups from his passes. How the hell can he be this clumsy lol... And Luka needs his confidence back in his shots. He could have had a triple double in 23 mins of playing.. 3pts and 1 assist short. Incredible stuff.

And yes Brunson deserves a starting spot if you ask me, he is showing incredibly good IQ already and is a perfect match to play along Luka, even more than DSJ.

And also, Ayton finally brought some energy and played great. Hopefully he wont disappear again for the next 10 games.. Should be a fun game, him vs Luka in couple of days.

I really think Brunson’s eventual role in the Mavs will be as the starting PG playing next to Luka. DSJ will eventually fall in to the role of running the second team and being instant offense off the bench. Similar to the way the used Jason Terry. Either that or DSJ will be used in a trade that will bring a player in that’s a better fit with Luka and Brunson.