2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

the biggest problem with mahimni is that he's on the books next year. if mahimni is the cost of acquiring beal for adams (and, i still don't think washington would be on board), you're looking at 100 mil tax payment next year or just short of that. to say nothing of the payment this year. it doesn't seem realistic.

mahimni's pretty bad now. he's come down a long way after his injuries. he hasn't been a regular starter since 2016. one of his biggest problems is fouling. mahimni is career 8.0+ PF / 100 which is high. adams is really great at playing defense without fouling, his per possession rate is less than half that this season. and this is why context is so important when looking at metrics like bpm or rpm or whatever. comparing adams and mahimni drpm or dbpm apples for apples is a non-starter. mahimni cannot play regular minutes fouling at the rate he does. he'd foul out of half his games playing adams' minutes. the creators of these metrics are very open about the ratings being context sensitive when it comes to role and position.

incidentally, mahimni and noel have this same issue.

i also think, getrichordie, you are ignoring some compelling precedent that wings sharing the ball with westbrook don't limit his usage all that much. there's only one ball to go around. some of beal's skillset would be lost in translation coming here to fit into our roster with westbrook, schroder, and george. and like has been mentioned umpteen times, adams (while overpaid) has his value extracted 100%. you keep saying 'trust presti' or 'trust westbrook' but i don't think there's any precedent for this.

[Pillendreher]

I think I made a mistake last night when looking up that lineup data via cleaningtheglass. I didn't get the data for those lineups, but for all lineups that featured at least one of the players I listed. This should be correct though:



Still not bad at all.

[getrichordie]

the biggest problem with mahimni is that he's on the books next year. if mahimni is the cost of acquiring beal for adams (and, i still don't think washington would be on board), you're looking at 100 mil tax payment next year or just short of that. to say nothing of the payment this year. it doesn't seem realistic.

mahimni's pretty bad now. he's come down a long way after his injuries. he hasn't been a regular starter since 2016. one of his biggest problems is fouling. mahimni is career 8.0+ PF / 100 which is high. adams is really great at playing defense without fouling, his per possession rate is less than half that this season. and this is why context is so important when looking at metrics like bpm or rpm or whatever. comparing adams and mahimni drpm or dbpm apples for apples is a non-starter. mahimni cannot play regular minutes fouling at the rate he does. he'd foul out of half his games playing adams' minutes. the creators of these metrics are very open about the ratings being context sensitive when it comes to role and position.

incidentally, mahimni and noel have this same issue.

i also think, getrichordie, you are ignoring some compelling precedent that wings sharing the ball with westbrook don't limit his usage all that much. there's only one ball to go around. some of beal's skillset would be lost in translation coming here to fit into our roster with westbrook, schroder, and george. and like has been mentioned umpteen times, adams (while overpaid) has his value extracted 100%. you keep saying 'trust presti' or 'trust westbrook' but i don't think there's any precedent for this.

OKC would need to get off some money somewhere, sure. But it would be of great tax relief to get that last year of Adams and Roberson’s contract off the books. I have no doubt ownership is playing close attention to this.

I don’t think ownership signed off going this far into the tax without understanding that it’s hard to get out of, because leverage is a thing. I think they understand that they don’t want to increase their tax bill, but they are okay with paying next year so as long as the tax bill doesn’t increase beyond what it already is for this year and next.

Also, I believe in Westbrook’s ability to adapt. I think Presti sees it and I think Russ’ knows that he is slowing down. I’m sure he’s already had the minutes talk with Westbrook. This is why we are seeing Westbrook start to change his game. He, along with management know that this year and next year could very well be the rest of prime Russ.

Presti will make a move that looks to get younger and more sustainable as well as getting us help now and decreasing the tax bill during and after next season.

As far as Mahinmi goes, I’m just going to simply disagree. My explanations are never good enough for anyone it seems.

Bobby Marks (ESPN) on what sort of moves the Thunder can make: “What to watch: The $10.7 million trade exception.Not only did the Thunder acquire a strong backup in Dennis Schroder through the Carmelo Anthony trade, but they also created a $10.7 million trade exception. Although the Thunder have an open roster spot, using the exception comes at a cost because of the repeater tax. Adding salary would cost the team between $4.75 and $5.25 for every $1 spent. Oklahoma City has a league-high $73.8 million tax penalty, but ownership has shown that money will be spent if it can be justified.”

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[getrichordie]

If you had a gun to your head and you had to pick Tristan Thompson or Ian Mahinmi to replace Adams for the rest of this year and next, $ not a factor, who do you pick?


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[Dn4sty]

If you had a gun to your head and you had to pick Tristan Thompson or Ian Mahinmi to replace Adams for the rest of this year and next, $ not a factor, who do you pick?


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This is reaching a point where I (and pretty much everyone else) have no idea what is going on.

Please stop what you are doing. I obviously can’t make you do it though. I don’t want you to leave to board or stop interacting but this past few weeks (maybe a month) has worn us all out. No one wants to respond or interact with you anymore.

[getrichordie]

If you had a gun to your head and you had to pick Tristan Thompson or Ian Mahinmi to replace Adams for the rest of this year and next, $ not a factor, who do you pick?


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This is reaching a point where I (and pretty much everyone else) have no idea what is going on.

Please stop what you are doing. I obviously can’t make you do it though. I don’t want you to leave to board or stop interacting but this past few weeks (maybe a month) has worn us all out. No one wants to respond or interact with you anymore.

I’m not going to apologize for sharing my thoughts. Ignore me if you don’t enjoy what I post.


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[Dn4sty]

If you had a gun to your head and you had to pick Tristan Thompson or Ian Mahinmi to replace Adams for the rest of this year and next, $ not a factor, who do you pick?


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This is reaching a point where I (and pretty much everyone else) have no idea what is going on.

Please stop what you are doing. I obviously can’t make you do it though. I don’t want you to leave to board or stop interacting but this past few weeks (maybe a month) has worn us all out. No one wants to respond or interact with you anymore.

I’m not going to apologize for sharing my thoughts. Ignore me if you don’t enjoy what I post.


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This is not the response that I intended to get from you.

You went off the deep end a couple of weeks ago with all the trade stuff. People have been incredibly patient and have interacted, discussed, etc.... but you’ve worn us out.

Can you at least see this side of things and where we are coming from

[spearsy23]

Anyone notice caris levert had a convenient “injury” and hasn’t been playing? Dudes on his way out. Get him Presti!

Andre Roberson has been sitting out for almost a year. Presti playing 4d chess.

[ThunderBolt]

If you had a gun to your head and you had to pick Tristan Thompson or Ian Mahinmi to replace Adams for the rest of this year and next, $ not a factor, who do you pick?


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This is reaching a point where I (and pretty much everyone else) have no idea what is going on.

Please stop what you are doing. I obviously can’t make you do it though. I don’t want you to leave to board or stop interacting but this past few weeks (maybe a month) has worn us all out. No one wants to respond or interact with you anymore.

I’m not going to apologize for sharing my thoughts. Ignore me if you don’t enjoy what I post.


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Put it in the trade forum please. Beal and Mahinmi aren’t on this team and there is no credible reporting to suggest anything is happening. This thread isn’t for trades and for discussing the current team. I’m not trying to be a mod but that’s why people are getting frustrated.

[spearsy23]

If you had a gun to your head and you had to pick Tristan Thompson or Ian Mahinmi to replace Adams for the rest of this year and next, $ not a factor, who do you pick?


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This is reaching a point where I (and pretty much everyone else) have no idea what is going on.

Schizophrenia usually presents in males in the late teens or early twenties.

[getrichordie]

This is reaching a point where I (and pretty much everyone else) have no idea what is going on.

Please stop what you are doing. I obviously can’t make you do it though. I don’t want you to leave to board or stop interacting but this past few weeks (maybe a month) has worn us all out. No one wants to respond or interact with you anymore.

I’m not going to apologize for sharing my thoughts. Ignore me if you don’t enjoy what I post.


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This is not the response that I intended to get from you.

You went off the deep end a couple of weeks ago with all the trade stuff. People have been incredibly patient and have interacted, discussed, etc.... but you’ve worn us out.

Can you at least see this side of things and where we are coming from

I definitely get the concern some of you have pointed out with my takes and I’ve had rebuttals for all. At the end of the day, I think a lot of the takes on here are very short-sighted. Of course everyone wants to err on the side of caution with their viewpoints, but I think I just see the league from a different perspective. No. I don’t think that my perspective is better; I simply argue my points and everyone else argues their own which is fine.

What’s not fine is people not taking my points into consideration and just brushing them off like I’m stupid because it doesn’t fit their perspective of things.

But I digress. We will see what happens with this team and we can discuss the moves then if that makes everyone happy. I was just hoping to discuss the future.

And I apologize for posting trades on here, I just thought’d I’d share some thoughts that I think are important as it pertains to our team and it’s future.


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[bondom34]

Anyone notice caris levert had a convenient “injury” and hasn’t been playing? Dudes on his way out. Get him Presti!

Andre Roberson has been sitting out for almost a year. Presti playing 4d chess.

I keep saying the Nuggets are blowing it up. They're all hurt.

But seriously this has gone from talking about trades to some weird conspiracy stuff.

[Bergmaniac]

Mahinmi is really bad and already 32, he has one of the worst contracts in the league. He is barely getting any minutes even with Dwight Howard out, when Dwight was healthy he was getting DNP-CDs. Hell, he was getting DNP-CDs even in some games when Dwight was out earlier and the coach played a sophomore second round pick and Jason freaking Smith instead.

[slick_watts]

OKC would need to get off some money somewhere, sure. But it would be of great tax relief to get that last year of Adams and Roberson’s contract off the books. I have no doubt ownership is playing close attention to this.

is andre roberson going to washington in your proposal? i don't understand how they are getting out of his salary, and even if they do, they're replacing it with mahimni who makes 50% more!

I don’t think ownership signed off going this far into the tax without understanding that it’s hard to get out of, because leverage is a thing. I think they understand that they don’t want to increase their tax bill, but they are okay with paying next year so as long as the tax bill doesn’t increase beyond what it already is for this year and next.

so we're back to square one where you are proposing a trade where the thunder get beal while also lowering their tax etc. etc.

Also, I believe in Westbrook’s ability to adapt. I think Presti sees it and I think Russ’ knows that he is slowing down. I’m sure he’s already had the minutes talk with Westbrook. This is why we are seeing Westbrook start to change his game. He, along with management know that this year and next year could very well be the rest of prime Russ.

it's great you believe in something but i'd like to see evidence. westbrook is still a super high usage scorer, and there's no evidence to suggest he'll stop being one if the thunder got beal.

Presti will make a move that looks to get younger and more sustainable as well as getting us help now and decreasing the tax bill during and after next season.

you do realize that other teams have to agree to trades, right?

As far as Mahinmi goes, I’m just going to simply disagree. My explanations are never good enough for anyone it seems.

what are you disagreeing with? his foul rate? the fact he hasn't started since 2016? that rpm and bpm should be considered contextually? these aren't opinions they are factual.

[ThunderBolt]

These look good...

https://newsok.com/article/5617533/thunder-gives-sneak-peek-at-new-sunset-uniforms

[JustOneFix]

I would not trade Adams for Beal straight up, let alone taking another terrible contract in the package.

[Patches Perry]

What's the consensus here on Roberson coming back? OKC's defense is elite this season without him, so will his return be redundant or will throwing him out there take them to another level? Obviously all of this assumes he can return to form, which I understand is a grand assumption.

[ThunderBolt]

What's the consensus here on Roberson coming back? OKC's defense is elite this season without him, so will his return be redundant or will throwing him out there take them to another level? Obviously all of this assumes he can return to form, which I understand is a grand assumption.

My thoughts are just keep him out until next season and have him healthy. If he can’t come back then he’s an expiring and maybe get some value for him.

[Pillendreher]

What's the consensus here on Roberson coming back? OKC's defense is elite this season without him, so will his return be redundant or will throwing him out there take them to another level? Obviously all of this assumes he can return to form, which I understand is a grand assumption.

Well on one hand it's not like there's a cap on defense - if he can give you another 2pp100p defensively, that's helping you win games. But on the other hand, it's fair to question how good teams can actually be defensively in this era of the NBA. What if the focus on offensive efficiency actually does impose a certain "cap" indirectly on defense?

[spearsy23]

I don't think it matters because he'll likely end up with another injury before ever getting fully healthy.