2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[VCfor3]

and somehow you’re forgetting that Dallas made the biggest improvement of all teams in Nba.

Though it is due to injuries more than anything, Memphis had a worse record last year and is currently ahead of Dallas this year so wouldn't that make them the most improved thus far?

I agree with Chuck and Duke though. Doncic is more valuable than almost any other player in the NBA (the Trade Board ranked him as the 7th most valuable player) but on pure production/current on court value he is an average to above average starter. That for a 19y.o rookie is absolutely insane and makes you wonder how good he'll be in his prime but doesn't negate the fact that if you had to win a game tomorrow, there are other players who could contribute more (in various ways) than Luka could. That is in no way meant as a slight against Luka who I think is clearly in the lead for ROY and has the potential to be a generational talent. He is still developing and isn't quite on that level yet is all.

[Bob8]

and somehow you’re forgetting that Dallas made the biggest improvement of all teams in Nba.

Though it is due to injuries more than anything, Memphis had a worse record last year and is currently ahead of Dallas this year so wouldn't that make them the most improved thus far?

I agree with Chuck and Duke though. Doncic is more valuable than almost any other player in the NBA (the Trade Board ranked him as the 7th most valuable player) but on pure production/current on court value he is an average to above average starter. That for a 19y.o rookie is absolutely insane and makes you wonder how good he'll be in his prime but doesn't negate the fact that if you had to win a game tomorrow, there are other players who could contribute more (in various ways) than Luka could. That is in no way meant as a slight against Luka who I think is clearly in the lead for ROY and has the potential to be a generational talent. He is still developing and isn't quite on that level yet is all.

I have forgotten them, they had 1 win more than Dallas in the start of last year, so we can say they both made the biggest improvement.
I’m not saying that Luka is top 30 player in Nba, but to say he has smaller impact that Ingles, who is making almost 6 points less per game, playing for a club with better roster, but having worse record, is very doubtful for me. Like that raw production means nothing. Isn’t making point ultimate goal of basketball? Who’s winning games points or looking good in RPM? Look at RPM list and you will see many anomalies. Is Ingles and Covington really in the class of superstars, like RPM implies? Would Dallas be better, if Ingles played for them and not Luka?
And then that average starter story. How can probably the best player of a winning team is an average starter? No way you’re average, if you’re the best player of your team and your team is winning. Is Embiid average starter? RPM implies he is.

[e_l_f_o]

This is better said than anyway I coudlve said it. This is exactly what I mean. Ingles and Covington just know the game, theyre vets, they rarely make dumb mistakes and they make those crafty little plays all the time that dont really show up on the box sheet, but help impact games. We are talking about 2 guys that would start on any team in the NBA.

And yup this is not me talking ceiling or trade value or anything like that. Im talking strictly level of impact this year. Doncic has shown great flashes, but his impact isnt on those two guys level yet.

And what’s impact of ingles in his club. Has Utah really that much worse roster than Dallas?

I think Utah's roster is better but not playing up to their standard. I dont think its on Ingles that Mitchell is in a bad Soph slump, or Rubio is playing worse, or Crowder and Exum couldnt throw the ball into the ocean if they tried. I dont think that is on Ingles, but that doesnt takeaway from the impact Ingles is having. Again its a noisy stat, but its not a shock Ingles has the best On/Off on his team by almost double.

I think Dallas as a team is playing really good solid basketball. Same goes for Sac. You can look at Fox in a similar way. I can think of 10 PGs that are having a higher impact than Fox this year. Fox has some good raw stats, Sac has a good record, but that doesnt make Fox a top 10 PG yet. He still makes a lot of young mistakes throughout the game.

Come on ... You cant be seriously saying Ingles is playing better than Doncic this year That means you havent watched too much of Utah, or Mavs.. I get your pointwith RoCo and his D but Ingles has been way worst this year being very reluctant to shoot which is killing his team

[burek3]

How many players are 18/7/4/1 right now this season?

Spoiler:

7. 9 without the steals.

His turnovers are 2.3/g last 5 games, and 2.8/g last 10 games. Assists are climbing towards 5.0.
Mavs had anything but a hot start of the season.
His defense is actually solid.
He's not MVP (of the NBA), that is true, but saying he's just an average starter is a bad take.

I feel like duke4life and Chuck explained the rest of my thought well: being a solid starter is great for a rookie--there are 30 teams in the league starting 5 players, so being average within that means you're still about the 70-80th best player in the league and that seems like a very fair place to put Doncic based on his overall play. Rookies usually don't get that high right away, and Doncic will almost definitely climb those rankings as he adjusts more. But you'd have to do a lot of gymnastics to make a good argument for him being better than that overall so far this year.

I also wanted to give some advice avoiding those stupid groupings like 'only 5 players ever to average...' They're totally arbitrary and seem to say a lot more than they do: for instance, you could adjust the pts down and the assists up (say 12pts/7assists) and get a totally different group of apparently unique players that doesn't include Doncic. And Doncic would be on none of the 'only 5 players ever...' lists for anything involving blocked shots or low TOs. So they're a weak thing to bring out in an argument, and there are much better ways to talk about a player's overall impact. (Also, as someone who sat through the entire 76ers Process, I saw so many of these that they all seem like jokes now--Tony Wroten was one of 5 players ever to post 15/6/6/2, for example, and J Okafor was one of three centers under 20 to average 20pts on 60%+ TS, etc (both of those are real examples)).

Sure, I get what you are saying. I was also being facetious to a degree, so leave the stats aside.

You know how the trend seems down the stretch of a game on the line and Doncic the Rookie has the ball in his hands and the opposing fans groan a collective "aw fu.., here it comes"? And "it" doesn't necessarily mean him hitting a (series of) stepback three(s).

To me, that's quite above average. (even if his raw statistical what-evers are rather closer to the median of starters than not)

It's not just eh, he gets 18 points, or eh, he just gets 7 rebounds. He controls the game. Rare starters do that.

[tria]

One thing to add about Doncic from last year in Euroleague. He always played better against stronger teams than vs weak.

[KokoKaizer]

One thing to add about Doncic from last year in Euroleague. He always played better against stronger teams than vs weak.

You clearly don't know the General Board.

A majority here thinks that NCAA is superior to Euroleague

[3toheadmelo]

he still has a lot of work to do but this is very encouraging

Read on Twitter

[DaGawd]

Watch on YouTube

It was actually 19 points but another solid showing

[Mr B]

One thing to add about Doncic from last year in Euroleague. He always played better against stronger teams than vs weak.

You clearly don't know the General Board.

A majority here thinks that NCAA is superior to Euroleague

That’s just crazy talk. About 80% of the players in the NCAA wouldn’t even make a team in the Euroleague. Only a small number of guys who were stars in the NCAA make it to the NBA. Those that can’t hack it in the NBA usually end up in the G League or the Euroleague. The Euroleague has also had NBA coaching. There is no way in hell the NCAA is better than the Euroleague.

[VCfor3]

One of the Memphis writers pointed it out the other day, but JJJ is slowly getting a reputation and opposing players are starting to try to avoid him. There were a few different plays I noticed where a player had decent position and normally would take the shot but JJJ was in the area so passed it out instead. I think that is part of the reason JJJ's blocks have been down lately (though he had 3 tonight).

[King Ken]

The thing I like about Luka the most is his consistency possession after possession. You don't see NCAA Seniors with this type of consistency and Doncic has it at #19. He is a great skill player. Tremendous consistency. Struggles a bit with his tools and stamina but he is advanced as a NBA player and to say that for a rookie at #19 is unheard of. Tremendous player.

[Pachinko_]

The thing I like about Luka the most is his consistency possession after possession. You don't see NCAA Seniors with this type of consistency and Doncic has it at #19. He is a great skill player. Tremendous consistency. Struggles a bit with his tools and stamina but he is advanced as a NBA player and to say that for a rookie at #19 is unheard of. Tremendous player.

All that stuff he does now, Luka has been doing them for a while, for a team that was really not much worse than these Mavs. Pretty much the best team in the world outside the NBA. I don't know if anyone ever had a role so similar before the NBA as he had in the NBA.
Living away from home? Done it.
Playing a million games a year? Done it.
Leading a team of talented men that defer to him when things get tough? Done it.
Playing under pressure? Done it.
This year is pretty much just another day in the office for him.

And again, we did try to explain it all summer because it was so - fkn - obvious, but very few people actually listen on this board, we just talk over each other.

[Bob8]

The thing I like about Luka the most is his consistency possession after possession. You don't see NCAA Seniors with this type of consistency and Doncic has it at #19. He is a great skill player. Tremendous consistency. Struggles a bit with his tools and stamina but he is advanced as a NBA player and to say that for a rookie at #19 is unheard of. Tremendous player.

I was impressed by Trae yesterday. He had great game.

[koyotee]

The thing I like about Luka the most is his consistency possession after possession. You don't see NCAA Seniors with this type of consistency and Doncic has it at #19. He is a great skill player. Tremendous consistency. Struggles a bit with his tools and stamina but he is advanced as a NBA player and to say that for a rookie at #19 is unheard of. Tremendous player.

I was impressed by Trae yesterday. He had great game.

Happens once in a blue moon

[Johnny Firpo]

Trae was great, he clearly was there mentally, and playing against Luka motivated him. He has a chance to be special, but I don't think he is ever going to make those insanely idiotic shots at that volume. There is a reason why no one takes as many of those as Curry, who is likely the biggest anomaly in the history of the sport. Young needs to dial back, not necessarily this year, but as his career progresses. Anyway, the Hawks are in excellent position to draft one of the premier prospects next summer, even if their own pick is only 4th-5th-6th, they can package it with ours to move ahead a little. Good situation to be in.

[NYKHardKnock]

Knox is really coming along. His jumper is deadly, and he’s beginning look good bringing the ball to the hole. Looks much more comfortable and fluid out there. His off the dribble and pull up is amazing. Once he adds muscle, when he drives he’ll get fouled a lot. In a few years when he develops an all around offensive game he’ll be an allstar. He really looks like a 6’9” Klay.

He’s only 19. I can’t wait to see KK/KP together.

[UcanUwill]

One thing to add about Doncic from last year in Euroleague. He always played better against stronger teams than vs weak.

You clearly don't know the General Board.

A majority here thinks that NCAA is superior to Euroleague

I doubt that. Do not let few vocal jackasses paint opinion of the whole forum mob.

[Duke4life831]

What an athlete.

Watch on YouTube

17/10 on 4-5 shooting last night.

15/7/1 with 1 block on 58/22/75 shooting (26 mpg) since November 17th. The dude has quietly been damn good this last month.

[Texas Chuck]

I really think Brunson’s eventual role in the Mavs will be as the starting PG playing next to Luka. DSJ will eventually fall in to the role of running the second team and being instant offense off the bench. Similar to the way the used Jason Terry. Either that or DSJ will be used in a trade that will bring a player in that’s a better fit with Luka and Brunson.

I think if Brunson can steal the starting job, DSJ is probably a trade chip rather than a 6th man. I could be wrong, but with Barea still going so strong I'd expect the team to bring him back on a 2 year deal and I don't think he and Smith are a good fit.

Brunson is such a cool character tho. He will never be a star but he's going to be in the league a long time.

[Texas Chuck]

One of the Memphis writers pointed it out the other day, but JJJ is slowly getting a reputation and opposing players are starting to try to avoid him. There were a few different plays I noticed where a player had decent position and normally would take the shot but JJJ was in the area so passed it out instead. I think that is part of the reason JJJ's blocks have been down lately (though he had 3 tonight).

I love JJJ so much. And I'm thrilled that Memphis has both a guy who can really help right now plus the first real bridge to the post-Gasol/Conley era.