Hall Of Fame Misses

[Marcus]

I think we have a good level of knowledgeable folks around here that have a solid eye for prospects BUT nobody is perfect and we all have had our complete prospect misses. This is the thread where you can post up some of the major misses on prospect predictions. Find some of your favorite misses or post your own.

Find the quote, post the quote, but it needs to be something substantial, I will reserve the right to delete whatever doesn't make the cut.

[GimmeDat]

I think every year I've learnt the nuances of prospect analysis more and more, and it's always a case of adapting to league trends and what's successful as well.

I only really got in to the NBA draft stuff around the 2014 draft when I was still in school. I think in that class, I don't think I had any major misses, but there were a couple i miscalcuated.

2014

Nick Stauskas -

Spoiler:

He's having a good season so maybe he ends up being the player that I and many others thought he could be, but I thought he was a knock-down shooter with handles and some secondary playmaker abilities, and not a bad athlete either. Obviously, at least the first number of seasons in the league, he hasn't been close to efficient and his secondary abilities didn't translate.

Adreian Payne -

Spoiler:

This was just a case of surface level talent evaluation. Didn't watch many if any Mich. State games, was enamoured with the athleticism and tools, and didn't take much regard for the knocks on him, and especially at his age, some of the issues he had were pretty red-flag-ish in hindsight. I don't think I had a board that year but I think I had him around 20~, to guess.

All in all, I don't really look at these misses with much disdain, was my first real year getting in to it and I definitely learnt a lot from it.

2015

Devin Booker -

Spoiler:

I doubt many predicted that Book would become the player he is now, but I just didn't think heaps of him. I just saw a guy that could shoot and maybe had more well-rounded scoring ability than he was able to display in college, but I didn't think he'd be more than a 15ppg guy in the league, nor did I think he'd be able to initiate and pass anywhere near the level he is now, so for a guy that I thought was pretty meh athletically and wasn't going to play defense, I wasn't that in to him. I think again, this was a case of just watching clips, him not really passing my eye test, not really going in to further depth both in watching more footage and looking in to the stats more to have a greater appreciation for his abilities. I think I also overrated athleticism, in particular the explosive/highlight athletic qualities, and thus underappreciated someone like Booker's skill level and savvy as a scorer and how far that could get him.

I don't think anyone else really stands out in this class that I stuffed up on. I thought Stanley Johnson would be a bit better than he is. I think I was pretty high on Porzingis from memory, I remember being a massive fan when he I saw him brought up as a possible sleeper for the 2014 draft, so I think I avoided that miss a bit.

2016

Timothe Luwawu -

Spoiler:

I was pretty hyped on Luwawu, he was my #1 sleeper guy and I banged on about him a lot. I had him at #11 in June. While I didn't go as far as comparing them, I likened Luwawu to a Paul George archetype guy iirc. I think a number of factors played in to my misjudgement of TLC;

- Always been biased towards Euro/international prospects. Dunno, I think it's just the intrigue/uniqueness factor. And as I said before, I was a bit partial to Mega Leks and what I perceived was a good track record there.

- Lack of experience adjusting assessment of tools and production compared to the level of competition. I still feel a bit confused as to why he's had such little impact as an athlete in the NBA, he had some massive dunks overseas, but I think I didn't appreciate the difference in athlete quality between his league and the NBA, and I thought he was this super athlete that was going to be driving and dunking on people in the league. And maybe he does have the ability for that in space, but I also think I underappreciated the different elements that comprise our concept of 'athleticism' (first step, lateral movement, etc.) and looked soley at his dunks instead of considering other facets where he may not have been that athletic.

- Overrating jack of all trade, master of none type guys, especially at lower levels of competition, and forecasting unrealistic levels of development in slightly older prospects that have yet to really build on their 'tools'. I looked at Luwawu and said 'imagine if his handling improved' or 'imagine if his shooting improved' etc... when in reality there's nothing he really does at an elite level. Also overvaluing 'passing flashes' even if the A/TO ratio demonstrates they're really not an efficient or effective passer in the capacity they're trying to do so.

- Under-appreciating shot versatility. Looking only at overall 3pt% does not make guys equal - the ability to shoot in various actions and movements is a skill in itself, and Luwawu has/had a very set shot that meant he was only ever going to be a spot up guy, really.

Dragan Bender -

Spoiler:

I missed on this guy like most did. I thought he wasn't going to be nearly the same offensive player as Porzingis, but I thought he'd be a more well rounded defender, he'd eventually become a plus shooter, and he'd at least be able to make some athletic plays at the rim. Woops. Had him 3rd.

Skal Labissiere -

Spoiler:

I think I overvalued his pedigree leading in to college, looked at his tools, possible mis-utilization, and I thought he was a risk/reward worth taking in the lottery. I haven't really been following him, there was a point I thought he was looking like he was breaking out in to at least a good bench big, but obviously the Kings big glut is so heavy that he's not even getting a look in now. Wherever he's at in his development, I think it's fair to say that he's not hit his theoretical upside and likely never will.

Ivica Zubac -

Spoiler:

I think this was a case, especially being so new in to the whole draft process, that I didn't appreciate that little things that seperate a good big from a bad one, and what makes a big successful at the next level. I think I also didn't fully understand the direction the C position was heading. I thought here's a guy that is really big, been successful in international competition including against the USA, I thought he'd be good on the interior in both ends (boards, rim protection, scoring inside, etc.), seemed like not a liability from the line, and I liked the pedigree of Mega Leks building up prospects. In hindsight, it feels like a pretty uninformed take. To be fair, he was pretty productive for a 2nd round pick in his rookie season, and really he was a fine pick in that range, but from memory I had him at 21 in June from what I can find, which would've been a major bust of a pick. Just the result of really archaic concepts of what to value in a C and didn't have the experience to contextualize some of performances and analyze them properly.

Demetrius Jackson -

Spoiler:

I thought he was going to be at least a good backup, just liked the eye-test, athleticism, jumper, didn't really appreciate how his size would limit him in the league, his lack of quality 'PG' play, thought he could shoot at a high level based on his first 2 college seasons, etc.

There's so many others in this draft it's not worth going in depth with them.. it was just a crap-shoot of a draft and I think everyone struggled a bit evaluating this one. Deyonta Davis, Marqueese Chriss were risk/reward guys I justified taking in the lottery due to sheer raw upside (actually Davis was at 15 for me).

2017

I feel pretty good about my assessment of this class at this stage. Obviously helps that it was such a strong class and it's easier to identify the guys you loved that disappointed than the guys you hated that broke out.

Obviously Fultz is struggling, but I still maintain that if his jumper was at the level as it was in college, he'd be a stud and worthy of the #1 pick right now. The rest of his game has translated, sans that the jumper helped further open up his other tools as a player. Makes a massive difference.

Bam Adebayo -

Spoiler:

Now this was a guy I was wrong about. I thought yeah, strong, nice up/down athleticism, high motor, this guy will be a quality garbage man at worst and good 2 way interior C at best, but I didn't buy the other skill-set stuff that was being sold as 'hidden' due to his college situation and flashed during workouts. Turns out he's so much more fluid of an athlete than I realized, and is a lot more skilled athletically than I realized. Also thought he'd be a little bit more undersized than he appears to be in the league. Bam was as high as late lottery for me in stages but I moved him down to 27 in my last mock before the draft. Ugh.

Kyle Kuzma -

Spoiler:

I thought he was bit of a reach at 27, I had him in the 30's. Just thought stuck between SF and PF, no defense, 3 years of college and didn't shoot well from 3 or the line in any of those seasons. Meh. Honestly, I think that's a fair evaluation based on what we saw of him in college, I remember him balling out in the combine and thought it was a flash in the pan of unsustainable shooting, then he did it again in SL and I thought damn, we might be on to something here, and look where he is now, stud scorer. The only thing I think I learnt from Kuzma is he is yet another example of how the PF spot is changing and what sort of player can be successful there.

Few other guys I was bit off with.. J.Collins I thought had an impressive ceiling, and to be fair I did end up having him at 14 which I think is pretty fair, but I thought he played no D and I wasn't really buying the shot potential, so I thought he had a lot of developing to become a plus player - turns out both those facets are probably better than it appeared in college.

I didn't have the balls to put Mitchell above any of the established top freshman, but I was super high on him, and did have him above guys like Markkanen even, so I won't count that as a miss.

-

All in all, I think I've had a pretty good track record, but it's really great practice to consider the guys you missed and more importantly, why you were wrong. I think every year we're sharpening our evaluations, and it's a constant process so long as the NBA keeps evolving.

[Ruzious]

I'm not motivated to find the post, but I do recall using the term "perfect 3rd guard" to describe Seth Curry when he was at Davidson.

[clyde21]

I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.

I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts

[Marcus]

I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.

I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts

It's good you got in front of it like this though. I may be forced to do the same here soon if Josh Jackson don't get his shtuff together.

[Domejandro]

No quote since it was pre-RealGM for me, but I commented that Damian Lillard was the "next Jarrett Jack", defending it by saying "I mean, I really like Jarrett Jack". I thought Damian Lillard would cap as a fringe-starter, but quality back-up Point-Guard type player.

[UcanUwill]

I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.

I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts

Thats just insane.

[clyde21]

I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.

I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts

Thats just insane.

yeah it's terrible. I'm pretty bad with international prospects honestly...and don't really understand the levels of competition there.

I still believe in Bonga/Musa though, but Doncic is making me look like an idiot.

[UcanUwill]

I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.

I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts

Thats just insane.

yeah it's terrible. I'm pretty bad with international prospects honestly...and don't really understand the levels of competition there.

I still believe in Bonga/Musa though, but Doncic is making me look like an idiot.

yeah, I like Musa quite a bit, I am very surprised Kuruks playing over him, kuruks wasn't anywhere on my radar. Anyway, Musa was basically poor mans version of Doncic in Europe, he was playing on much worse team in a far worse league.

[clyde21]

Thats just insane.

yeah it's terrible. I'm pretty bad with international prospects honestly...and don't really understand the levels of competition there.

I still believe in Bonga/Musa though, but Doncic is making me look like an idiot.

yeah, I like Musa quite a bit, I am very surprised Kuruks playing over him, kuruks wasn't anywhere on my radar. Anyway, Musa was basically poor mans version of Doncic in Europe, he was playing on much worse team in a far worse league.

yup, that's what I didn't really understand.

but I did have Sexton and SGA above Young last year too, so I'm hoping that balances things out a bit.

[PerkinsFor3]

Was a big fan of Ben Mclemore, Jason Thompson and Ed Davis and even though the last two have had decent careers, I expected more.

[HeatBeast]

Jahlil Okafor was my biggest miss by far. I thought he was going to be the next Tim Duncan. And by the looks of just his rookie season alone, I had a feeling that such a comparison would come into fruition.

But unfortunately, that went haywire real quick. By this point of Duncan's career, 4th season, Duncan had already established himself as one of the best players in the world, won a championship with a Finals MVP nod, and was a bonafide regular season MVP candidate. Topped off by being an all-star/NBA/defense team member consistently.

Meanwhile, Okafor has yet to even sniff a single all-star game, let alone cement himself as an NBA starting bigman.

[bondom34]

Derrick Williams was mine. Thought after the tourney he was for sure a star. Also liked Justin Anderson and Kennard a lot more recently. Historically the Thunder's 2008 draft was panned by some here.

[The-Power]

I was very wrong about how Ntilikina's offense would translate. Thought he'd be a good, versatile offensive player and now you have to hope that his offense becomes at least good enough to justify minutes for his defense.

I totally get why scouts and executives are more wary of international prospects, simply because we have less and sometimes no solid points of reference. Doncic was different because he was doing his things against competition we know was a step above college – but the national leagues, youth leagues and youth tournaments are often really tough to gauge properly.

NCAA is just much more familiar and players are much easier to compare (to peers as well as historical examples).

[The-Power]

In hindsight, this thread is funny to read:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036

It is about AD's scoring potential.

edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.

[Marcus]

In hindsight, this thread is funny to read:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036

It is about AD's scoring potential.

edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.

Its good.

[King Ken]

In hindsight, this thread is funny to read:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036

It is about AD's scoring potential.

edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.

Development matters so much on these things.

[eminence]

Wasn't really doing too much of this at the time, but Denzel Valentine as a top 5 guy probably wouldn't look great.

[SlowPaced]

I tend to remember my misses more clearly than my hits, so there are quite a few of these. Not sure how many of them are on the forum though.

Derrick Williams - I thought he'd be Michael Beasley with his head on straight.
Chris Singleton - Thought he'd be a lockdown defender and a great 3&D player.
Jimmy Butler - Like many, I thought he'd be a role player.
Perry Jones - Knew he had motor issues, but thought his combo of athleticism and size was too great to pass up. Clearly not.
Ben McLemore - Had him as the best prospect in '13, touted him as the new Ray Allen. 42% 3PT, 87% FT and super explosive.
Andrew Wiggins - Thought he'd be an All-Defensive caliber defender and a perennial All-Star.
Mario Hezonja - Touted him as the new Klay Thompson.
Emmanuel Mudiay - Thought he had more potential than anyone not named Towns.
Markelle Fultz - Had him as the best prospect in '17. I do feel cheated on this one though, the Fultz at UW was a different player.
Josh Jackson - Comparing him to Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard clearly was a terrible idea.
De'Aaron Fox - Not in the sense that I was low on him, but I definitely wasn't high on him enough. Had Fultz, Lonzo and DSJ ahead.
Frank Ntilikina - Definitely did not expect him to be this bad offensively. Thought he'd at least be able to shoot 3s consistently.
John Collins - Thought his skillset didn't fit the current NBA and he'd be out of the league quickly.

However, my most embarrassing draft moment is harshly criticising the Warriors for picking Klay Thompson in '11. I wasn't low on him as a prospect, but I thought the fit was bad. Thought a backcourt with Steph and Klay would be disastruous defensively. Klay turning out to be far better on defense than I expected changed everything.

To give myself some sort of credit, Kawhi Leonard was the player I thought the Warriors should've gone with. Still, inexcusable reasoning.

[bondom34]

Just a thought that ran through my head but any comparisons of Doncic and Hedo.

http://bkref.com/tiny/7bALj

Doncic has similar to better numbers at 19 than peak Hedo.