Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[trast66]

PIF, seemingly there are no series of events, including gun play in the locker room, that would move Ted to put EG out to pasture. As you say, it would have to be business reasons. A level of performance that leads to unacceptable attendance and tv ratings perhaps. Pressures from his business partners. A loss of influence or respect amongst the NBA ownership group.

[Eli Babak]

Two Wall-trades by ESPN "experts":

2. John Wall for Pau Gasol, Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV
3. John Wall and Troy Brown Jr. for Enes Kanter

Let's hope Buford & Pop go nuts. I'd do Wall+Oubre (no Brown) for Kanter very likely (add a 2nd or two from the Knicks).

[Ruzious]

Two Wall-trades by ESPN "experts":

2. John Wall for Pau Gasol, Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV
3. John Wall and Troy Brown Jr. for Enes Kanter

Let's hope Buford & Pop go nuts. I'd do Wall+Oubre (no Brown) for Kanter very likely (add a 2nd or two from the Knicks).

Why would the Wiz want Kanter?

[FAH1223]

Thing with trading Wall for cap space is...

What use is it if Ernie is still around? Ernie had $30m OF ROOM IN 2016 AND WASTED IT ON ABSOLUTE SHID!

[Eli Babak]

I always assume if one of Wall/Beal/Porter is traded Ernie's gone before the draft (because we are trash anyway). That's silly I know but that hope is keeping me alive.

Let's say we trade Wall+Oubre for Kanter+2022 2nd (they've traded a lot of picks too...). Next summer we'd have

Porter $27,250,576
Beal $27,093,019
Mahinmi $15,450,051
Howard $5,603,850 (I think he opts in because of injuries, difficult personality/drama and he simply isn't that great anymore)
Brown $3,219,480
= $78,616,976
+ cap holds of Satoransky and Bryant, maybe Dekker
+ 2019 1st round pick (hopefully in top 10)

That's 8/9 players already and nowhere near the tax... I think it's possible to rebuild on the fly but it requires things that will not likely happen.

[nate33]

Thing with trading Wall for cap space is...

What use is it if Ernie is still around? Ernie had $30m OF ROOM IN 2016 AND WASTED IT ON ABSOLUTE SHID!

We wouldn't actually get much cap space anyhow. We would merely have luxtax room. That's useful to retain players like Sato, Oubre, Bryant and Green. It would also free up the use of the MLE if we wanted it. It would also give us the room to absorb excess salary in trades in exchange for 2nd round picks. We'll have Jason Smith's rather large $5.4M exception until next December.

[nate33]

I always assume if one of Wall/Beal/Porter is traded Ernie's gone before the draft (because we are trash anyway). That's silly I know but that hope is keeping me alive.

Let's say we trade Wall+Oubre for Kanter+2022 2nd (they've traded a lot of picks too...). Next summer we'd have

Porter $27,250,576
Beal $27,093,019
Mahinmi $15,450,051
Howard $5,603,850 (I think he opts in because of injuries, difficult personality/drama and he simply isn't that great anymore)
Brown $3,219,480
= $78,616,976
+ cap holds of Satoransky and Bryant, maybe Dekker
+ 2019 1st round pick (hopefully in top 10)

That's 8/9 players already and nowhere near the tax... I think it's possible to rebuild on the fly but it requires things that will not likely happen.

So, $78.6M under contract
Sato's cap hold will be $6M.
Oubre's will be $9.6M
Bryant's will be $1.8M
Dekker's $3.9M
Green $1.6M
Figure $4M for our 1st round pick

The cap is $109M.

Renounce Oubre and Dekker. Keep Sato (needed at PG), Bryant, and Green (both barely more expensive than a minimum salary cap hold) and that leaves us with a payroll of $92M and $17M in cap room to add to our 9-man roster (counting our pick). It's actually about $14M after factoring minimum salary cap holds.

I don't know who we'll get for $14M. We'd probably be better off retaining Oubre's cap hold and then shopping for a free agent with the MLE. Whatever the case, it sure looks much more interesting than when $38M is going to John Wall.

[pcbothwel]

Nate,
1) We could easily have 30M in cap space by having Dwight opt out and stretch Mahinmi. I actually think if Howard comes back healthy for 15-20 games and shows to be a slightly better version of what he showed early in the year, he could easily get a 1/5M deal from a better team.

2) TBH, my goal would be to aim for 2020 FA.
- Trade Oubre + expirings (Rivers/Morris) to get under tax and small asset (Future late 1st or 2nd). Kings & NOP seem right
- Move Wall to team with expirings + asset (Detroit for Jackson, Leuer + pick, Nets for Crabbe, Magic for Augustin, etc.)
- Bring back Sato & Bryant to 2-3 year deals for about 10-12M per year. Dekker on 1 year deal and give him minutes

2019/20 w/ Pistons trade:
Jackson
Beal
Sato
Otto
Bryant
Bench: Brown, Dekker, Mahinmi, Detroit pick, 2019 1st

Summer of 2020:
- You have Beal, Sato, Otto, Bryant, Brown, Both 2019 picks, Our 2020 1st, and about 28-30M in cap room.

[nate33]

Nate,
1) We could easily have 30M in cap space by having Dwight opt out and stretch Mahinmi. I actually think if Howard comes back healthy for 15-20 games and shows to be a slightly better version of what he showed early in the year, he could easily get a 1/5M deal from a better team.

2) TBH, my goal would be to aim for 2020 FA.
- Trade Oubre + expirings (Rivers/Morris) to get under tax and small asset (Future late 1st or 2nd). Kings & NOP seem right
- Move Wall to team with expirings + asset (Detroit for Jackson, Leuer + pick, Nets for Crabbe, Magic for Augustin, etc.)
- Bring back Sato & Bryant to 2-3 year deals for about 10-12M per year. Dekker on 1 year deal and give him minutes

2019/20 w/ Pistons trade:
Jackson
Beal
Sato
Otto
Bryant
Bench: Brown, Dekker, Mahinmi, Detroit pick, 2019 1st

Summer of 2020:
- You have Beal, Sato, Otto, Bryant, Brown, Both 2019 picks, Our 2020 1st, and about 28-30M in cap room.

Bryant won't cost much. Probably less than $4M. I don't think Sato will get more than MLE offers either. Or maybe your $10-12M figure was for both combined, which seems about right.

Overall, I love the idea. Trade Wall, Morris and Oubre for whatever we can get as long as it results in some modest luxtax savings this year and we get back contracts that expire by 2020.

That said, in general, I'm against the whole idea of clearing the decks for free agency. Free agency is only a bargain if you are getting a superstar who is underpaid at a max salary. Those guys don't want to come here. Chance are, we'd be the team that lands a Khris Middleton/Nikola Vucevic type (2nd tier star) but ends up paying them 30% of our cap. I'd rather use the cap room to bail out other teams in exchange for picks, prospects and cost effective contracts. I want a slow build Boston Celtics/Toronto Raptors strategy where we draft shrewdly and try to "win" every trade, even if by a little. The goal is to build up a reservoir of assets in the hopes of someday trading for a star.

[pcbothwel]

Nate. I actually agree and was simply showing a path to a max spot.
My path would be simple and we would never actually "Tank" or get into FA:

1) Wall & Morris to Detroit for Jackson, Leuer, Khyri Thomas, 2019 1st
- Detoit stays under tax this year and dumping Leuer allows them to probably stay under next year too

2) Beal to Hornets for Zeller, Lamb, Bridges, 2020 1st
- Hornets go all in to get Beal and keep Walker

3) Rivers & Oubre to Kings for Ben McLemore and 2019 2nd
- Get out from tax and get asset for Oubre

You can bring back Lamb (3/45M), Sato (3/22M), and Bryant (2/6M) this offseason and have 1.5 years of:

Jackson / Thomas
Lamb / Brown
Sato / Bridges
Otto / Green
Zeller / Bryant

- You have 2 2019 1st, and a top 45 2nd... along with 2 2020 1st to keep adding talent... We'd also have the Full MLE
- Jackson is the only "Weak" link, but he's a fine patch PG while we groom one our 2019 picks to take over in 20/21
- This team my have a lower "Ceiling", but they would have a much higher floor and play winning/fun basketball.

The upside comes from Brown, Bridges, and/or our 4 1st round picks being able to break through to lead Sato, Otto, Lamb, and Zeller/Bryant

[jangles86]

Jabari Parker, Kris Dunn/Holiday protected future 1st
For
Otto porter, Troy Brown/Sato

[payitforward]

PIF, seemingly there are no series of events, including gun play in the locker room, that would move Ted to put EG out to pasture. As you say, it would have to be business reasons. A level of performance that leads to unacceptable attendance and tv ratings perhaps. Pressures from his business partners. A loss of influence or respect amongst the NBA ownership group.

Well done -- those sound to me like exactly the kinds of things that might finally cause him to change horses in mid-desert(!).

He once remarked that he couldn't fire Ernie, because "he was following the strategy," which to me implied that Ted thought of himself as capable of laying down a "strategy" that would make a difference, i.e. that he knew what that should be. That seemed ridiculous to me, & of course it would prevent a person from seeing what a bad job Ernie has done & continues to do.

So, it's just the kind of external influences you mention that might finally get him to cut the cord: shame among peers and/or the need to seem to make a really bbbiiiggg change.

[Dat2U]

Jabari Parker, Kris Dunn/Holiday protected future 1st
For
Otto porter, Troy Brown/Sato

God no. Why we would do this?

[Dat2U]

Nate,
1) We could easily have 30M in cap space by having Dwight opt out and stretch Mahinmi. I actually think if Howard comes back healthy for 15-20 games and shows to be a slightly better version of what he showed early in the year, he could easily get a 1/5M deal from a better team.

2) TBH, my goal would be to aim for 2020 FA.
- Trade Oubre + expirings (Rivers/Morris) to get under tax and small asset (Future late 1st or 2nd). Kings & NOP seem right
- Move Wall to team with expirings + asset (Detroit for Jackson, Leuer + pick, Nets for Crabbe, Magic for Augustin, etc.)
- Bring back Sato & Bryant to 2-3 year deals for about 10-12M per year. Dekker on 1 year deal and give him minutes

2019/20 w/ Pistons trade:
Jackson
Beal
Sato
Otto
Bryant
Bench: Brown, Dekker, Mahinmi, Detroit pick, 2019 1st

Summer of 2020:
- You have Beal, Sato, Otto, Bryant, Brown, Both 2019 picks, Our 2020 1st, and about 28-30M in cap room.

I rather go full rebuild. Best way to add elite talent is to lose and draft one. Free agency is dud for the majority of teams, we've proven no different. Just like when we shot for Durant and ended up Al Horford's 3rd choice. To me free agency is more about adding those under the radar players and that doesnt necessarily require max cap room. Guys like Harrell or Bjelica.

Also another HUGE thing to consider is Beal will play good soldier but he has absolutely no intention of resigning in DC when he's a FA. I say it's time we actually sell high for once.

[payitforward]

1) Wall & Morris to Detroit for Jackson, Leuer, Khyri Thomas, 2019 1st
- Detoit stays under tax this year and dumping Leuer allows them to probably stay under next year too...

This puts them at $127m next year with 7 guys & no incoming R1 pick. It would be a good trick staying under the tax. I don't think they are going to trade themselves into the tax next year.

2) Beal to Hornets for Zeller, Lamb, Bridges, 2020 1st
- Hornets go all in to get Beal and keep Walker

Who is having a better season this year -- Bradley Beal or Jeremy Lamb? & all you want them to do in order to swap those two is to give us their lottery pick from this year, who is looking very good in heavy minutes, a R1 pick in '20, & Cody Zeller? Do I have that right?

Would we be willing to sign a contract not to laugh at them if they do that trade?

3) Rivers & Oubre to Kings for Ben McLemore and 2019 2nd
- Get out from tax and get asset for Oubre

We traded a #19 pick & 2 R2 picks for Oubre whom Ernie will now trade for a single mid-R2 pick.

We traded Marcin Gortat for Austin Rivers, & 5 months later Ernie will swap Rivers for Ben McLemore. So that's, essentially, Gortat for McLemore.

I mean... sure! We can always dream -- go ahead & make those trades happen!

[payitforward]

...Best way to add elite talent is to lose and draft one. Free agency is dud for the majority of teams....

What my man Dat just said. In a sport with a salary cap, you can only be good if you have a number of players who are significantly underpaid.

There are only 2 kinds of bargain contracts in the NBA.

1. Contracts for the most elite superstars (Durant, Steph, LeBron). Those are bargains, b/c salaries are capped, but talent is not capped.

2. Rookie contracts. Those are bargains, b/c they are controlled by a scale that's built into the CBA (the CBA is negotiated by veterans!).

Beyond the very top handful of superstars what you get in free agency is someone who is paid at a market rate. He's paid what he's worth. (If you're lucky) You can't become good that way.

Beal will play good soldier but he has absolutely no intention of resigning in DC when he's a FA. I say it's time we actually sell high for once.

Sell high is the key phrase -- if you can believe the scuttlebutt, it seems that GMs view Brad as an elite player. I think that's far from true. If he can be traded on that basis, now is the time!

Wall should be traded as well. For whatever we can get that doesn't tie up $$ long term.

All you have to do is look at the fact that he's guaranteed $47.3m in 2022-23 to understand what a colossal boat anchor he is. Not about him. About his contract.

[Dark Faze]

Brad will be 28 years old and looking at something in the Paul George range of salary at that time: 4 years at an average of like 34 million a season, assuming he gets a max. Unless he just explodes in terms of production, I don't see an extension for him being in our best interest.

And here's the kicker--after this season that's only two years away. And his value will decline significantly if he remains in the ball park of the player he is now. A large chunk of his value is in the controlled years at the moment.

I can't say I'm excited at all at the prospect of a full tear down, but our salary situation and the terrible play of the team is kind of forcing the matter. Yes, we can move Wall maybe for a salary dump, but we'd at best hover at the 8 seed unless we landed a stud in the draft. Free agency is in a bad place at the moment with multiple stars locked up for several years. Nobody really available, and not really sure who'd be interested in joining the Washington Beal's anyway.

[youngWizzy]

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[80sballboy]

I give up. They are buyers, not sellers. I'm sure Ariza is the difference between the 7th seed and the second.

[80sballboy]

My guess is Oubre but that wouldn't make sense for Suns unless a third contending team wants him. Hey, Rivers played decently tonight and got a his first dunk. Maybe somebody wants him.