Game 25: Miami Heat (10-14) @ Los Angeles Clippers (16-8) - 7:30 PM PT

[og15]

I do not understand some of the rotations. I really hate when he takes Gallo out after only 6-7 minutes. Then the guy sits like 20 minutes (real time not game time). Its hard to stay in the flow that way. Gallo was 2-3 then sits then goes 1-7 the rest of the way.

Team got killed on the boards again and they can't plan to win games giving up 120 points so often.

This can be one of those situations. Let’s say a lineup goes in and is working very well, as a coach, when do you decide to keep that lineup as long as you can, or not overdo it and go back with your regular guys? Just because a lineup is working for 3-5 minutes doesn’t mean it will continue to work for the next 3-5 minutes, but it also doesn’t mean it won’t. It’s a lose-lose situation for a coach if things don’t work out whichever way you go. If they take out that lineup, as fans we say “it was working, why did you take them out”. If they leave the lineup on, we say “of course they couldn’t keep that up forever, you had to bring back the starters quicker after that unit made a good run”. But then just like you said, a coach has to factor in how long a guy is out too, because your starters / main guys might need to keep in rhythm, so it’s not always just as easy as we make it seem.

I just don't like him taking Gallo out so early to start games. Sometimes he only has 1-3 FGA and has hardly broken a sweat when taken out then he sits for 20 real time minutes. I could be wrong but it seems like a strange way to get a starter in to the flow of some games.

Gallo is averaging a career 2nd best ppg (ties best per points per 100 possessions and is career high per 36), third best FG% and best 3PT%. So for the games he comes back in cold, his seasons stats suggest there are more that he is coming back in shooting well and best than he's ever done in his career.

If he was playing poorly overall, there would be a point, but he's been excellent, better than the rest of his career. He would still have poor shooting games if he was staying longer as we've seen through his career.

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[Galloisdaman]

This can be one of those situations. Let’s say a lineup goes in and is working very well, as a coach, when do you decide to keep that lineup as long as you can, or not overdo it and go back with your regular guys? Just because a lineup is working for 3-5 minutes doesn’t mean it will continue to work for the next 3-5 minutes, but it also doesn’t mean it won’t. It’s a lose-lose situation for a coach if things don’t work out whichever way you go. If they take out that lineup, as fans we say “it was working, why did you take them out”. If they leave the lineup on, we say “of course they couldn’t keep that up forever, you had to bring back the starters quicker after that unit made a good run”. But then just like you said, a coach has to factor in how long a guy is out too, because your starters / main guys might need to keep in rhythm, so it’s not always just as easy as we make it seem.

I just don't like him taking Gallo out so early to start games. Sometimes he only has 1-3 FGA and has hardly broken a sweat when taken out then he sits for 20 real time minutes. I could be wrong but it seems like a strange way to get a starter in to the flow of some games.

Gallo is averaging a career 2nd best ppg (ties best per points per 100 possessions and is career high per 36), third best FG% and best 3PT%. So for the games he comes back in cold, his seasons stats suggest there are more that he is coming back in shooting well and best than he's ever done in his career.

If he was playing poorly overall, there would be a point, but he's been excellent, better than the rest of his career. He would still have poor shooting games if he was staying longer as we've seen through his career.

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Its possible he would shoot worse or possible he would shoot better. We can not say for sure. As investments say past results are not predictors of future results. I personally think its strange way to get in a flow by playing for 6-7 minutes then sit for 20 (real time).

[og15]

I just don't like him taking Gallo out so early to start games. Sometimes he only has 1-3 FGA and has hardly broken a sweat when taken out then he sits for 20 real time minutes. I could be wrong but it seems like a strange way to get a starter in to the flow of some games.

Gallo is averaging a career 2nd best ppg (ties best per points per 100 possessions and is career high per 36), third best FG% and best 3PT%. So for the games he comes back in cold, his seasons stats suggest there are more that he is coming back in shooting well and best than he's ever done in his career.

If he was playing poorly overall, there would be a point, but he's been excellent, better than the rest of his career. He would still have poor shooting games if he was staying longer as we've seen through his career.

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Its possible he would shoot worse or possible he would shoot better. We can not say for sure. As investments say past results are not predictors of future results. I personally think its strange way to get in a flow by playing for 6-7 minutes then sit for 20 (real time).

Yea, but seems like it is working for Gallo based on the outcomes.

Also investments differ because variables can change drastically. In sports, generally without any confounding factors (age, injury, young player improving, drastic role change), past results are the best predictor of future outcomes.

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[Galloisdaman]

Gallo is averaging a career 2nd best ppg (ties best per points per 100 possessions and is career high per 36), third best FG% and best 3PT%. So for the games he comes back in cold, his seasons stats suggest there are more that he is coming back in shooting well and best than he's ever done in his career.

If he was playing poorly overall, there would be a point, but he's been excellent, better than the rest of his career. He would still have poor shooting games if he was staying longer as we've seen through his career.

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Its possible he would shoot worse or possible he would shoot better. We can not say for sure. As investments say past results are not predictors of future results. I personally think its strange way to get in a flow by playing for 6-7 minutes then sit for 20 (real time).

Yea, but seems like it is working for Gallo based on the outcomes

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That is possible. I'm not bashing Doc. I think Doc does a good job. I just disagree with that early a sub out just to sit and sit. It doesn't seem as blatant in the second half.

[Max Headrom]

Bad bad bad loss tonight.. but these types of games will happen for us simply because we have a lot of guys that literally can't shoot the ball. And sadly Lou is becoming one of those guys

I wonder if they're just tired because they got all the shots they wanted and was even missing layups which is crazy. First home game after road trips are always super iffy and this had trap game written all over it.

But even some poster's savior Bud and his team lost to the Suns at home.

Yea, in reality, coaches make decisions based on the data they have from watching the flow of the game, what their assistants tell them and stats. There’s a lot of trial and error in coaching because something that’s working for 5 minutes might collapse if you keep it going for 5 more minutes. Something that works against the exact same opponent lineup one time might not work another time.

The Bucks have lost to the Knicks, Hornets and Suns within their last 10 games. The Spurs are like 29th or 30th in Drtg this season. We have a better record than the Celtics who are playing in the East and coached by Stevens. Now, someone might say “well the Celtics are adjusting to all their new players, etc”. Mmmm...have you looked at the Clippers roster? Which guys played multiple games together last season?

The team is winning, exceeding what was expected. Whatever good decisions the coaching staff makes just tend to get brushed off as “well that’s what they should do”, but far be it for them to try out anything that doesn’t end up working. Every coaching staff does this. There are some coaches that make some blatant errors that everyone can see and are aware of, but minor rotation decisions are not cut and dry things, there’s a lot that a coach is trying to balance when it comes to that.

Yeah, it's amazing that all the Doc naysayers think it's a simple thing to coach and make it seem like they or any other coach besides Doc would be doing better with this team as constructed. Like Doc said, they're gonna be in every game because the team is tough and they have. Even games they end up losing by double digits, they've been in position to win and with this team, that's all you can really ask for.

Coaches can't make players miss open shots or layups like last night. This is a long season and EVERY team has games where they lose games they theoretically have no business losing, that's sports. And like I said, trap games are usually set up just like this. Clippers coming home from a tough road trip, playing a team that's like a wounded dear, they're tired and boom, they get beat by an inferior team. As long as we stay in the mix for the playoffs, I'm fine. People are acting like the team is competing for a title this year. This year is a great audition for stars that are free agents coming up and so far, so good.

[Galloisdaman]

I remember decades ago when the Bulls who struggled to win 13-20 games all season would surprise a good team with an upset. Even great teams throw in some clunkers. Right now defense and rebounding have to be the biggest concerns.

[esqtvd]

Its possible he would shoot worse or possible he would shoot better. We can not say for sure. As investments say past results are not predictors of future results. I personally think its strange way to get in a flow by playing for 6-7 minutes then sit for 20 (real time).

Yea, but seems like it is working for Gallo based on the outcomes

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That is possible. I'm not bashing Doc. I think Doc does a good job. I just disagree with that early a sub out just to sit and sit. It doesn't seem as blatant in the second half.

If memory serves, Gallo has been a slow starter this year and has done most of his damage in the 2nd half.

Doc overplayed his core in the CP/BG era. I didn't like it, but I understood because playoff seeding was the entire strategic purpose and we had the worst bench in the league. As it turned out, that was probably a mistake, perhaps a fatal mistake. Perhaps THE fatal mistake, considering how injuries became the defining feature of that era.

Anyway, I like how Doc's spacing out the minutes with this year's team. It's a looong year and giving people extended minutes often reduces their efficiency. Sometimes by a lot. We have no stars but we do have a lot of OK players. More minutes for Gallo [and Trezz and Lou and most importantly Shai] might well be a net negative.

Indeed, Tobias--our star and future max contract [?]--has been coming up really small in the 4th quarter. [LeBron scored like 20 points in the 4th quarter the other day.] Doc has been keeping us in every game through 3 quarters. The stretch run is up to the horses, not the jockeys.

[Ranma]

I don't think we can consistently defend enough, just based on personell to be able to easily push past the Nuggets or Thunder.

I have to concedingly agree as I've noted elsewhere that our biggest weakness right now is a reliably consistent big-man presence who provides rim protection and rebounding with length and athleticism.

My concern is not losing but with the manner by which we're losing. These are not habits that should be readily dismissed. Even if I were a Suns fan during a season of tanking, I'd be just as outraged over the way my team lost if they've been similar to the way we've lost to the Wizards and Heat.

I'm going to frame my assessment based on not only what we have right now, but what I anticipate we'll need in the near future after free agency this off-season. The short answer is I think we need the rim protection and rebounding normally provided from the starting center spot in this era of positionless basketball. Such a player would hopefully come in the form of a long, athletic and energetic big man.

[Ranma]

The players and I know how big a deal that lackluster effort was last night, but some of us continue to look for excuses not to be concerned when there's not even justification for it. Like I've said before, it's that type of attitude that keeps good teams from being great, but sure, let's continue stagnating and hoping for free agency to solve everything.

The whole point, from a big picture perspective, is that the organization made it a mission to try to build something special here. Accepting such mediocrity in whatever form defeats that very purpose. It's one thing if it's just an anomaly but it's another when it becomes a pattern.

The team has already shown what it's capable of, but to comfortably rest on such laurels is dangerously risking reverting to an inferior state.

You can't just want excellence to happen. You have to demand it.

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[Ranma]

While he might not be perfect since he's been a coach with the short-term in mind, there's a reason why Erik Spoelstra is highly coveted by NBA executives. Then again, coaches are supposed to worry about what's put immediately in front of them. The dude doesn't make excuses and finds ways to win with whatever he has at his disposal. He's obviously been overmatched by Pat Riley's short-sighted focus as the Heat's front-office leader, but Riles has stuck with Spo because he's been the perfect soldier for him as coach.

It's debatable whether Spoelstra is actually an elite coach, but I'm of the opinion that he's on the cusp of that level. He's still better than what we've been used to and he seems to fit in with what our current front office is building. It's doubtful that Riley would ever let him go but if, for some reason, Spoelstra becomes available within the next couple of seasons, we should be first in line for his services unless Brad Stevens or the like were also available.

Spo is all about not making excuses and finding ways to win even against all odds while Doc constantly makes excuses as he continues to ride his overrated reputation for winning a single title with a stacked team and Tom Thibodeau serving as his defensive coordinator.

Chris Mannix, Sports Illustrated (12/14/18)

First, some context. The Heat are banged up. Goran Dragic has been hurt. James Johnson, too. Dion Waiters has yet to play this season. Hassan Whiteside missed the last four games for the birth of his child. Miami was so depleted against the Clippers last weekend that Spoelstra ordered his team into a zone defense for extended stretches for the first time this season. It surprised everyone—Clips coach Doc Rivers included.

Miami? Under Pat Riley, a Heat coach or executive since 1995, the team has relentlessly pursued winning. Under Spoelstra, the Heat head coach since 2008, the team has never tanked.

“This is what pro sports is supposed to be about,” Spoelstra told The Crossover. “Competing every night. To try to win. Not the opposite. Obviously not every year you are going to have a realistic chance to compete for a title. Since I have been here, working for Pat, from day 1, that has always been the directive. For me, that brings great clarity. Keep the main thing the main thing. And everything else is just b ---- t.”

“Do the history on it,” Spoelstra said. “What franchises have had the most enduring sustainable success over the last 24 years? We’re up there with the top three or four. The teams that constantly tank, I don’t know where they are. It would make for a pretty good discussion. But if you are hardwired to find a way to get it done without any excuses, you will find different pathways. There’s no one way to do it.”

The Riley Way: The Heat Have No Interest in Tanking