GT #30: LA Lakers @ Wizards 6 PM (NBCSW/1500 AM)

[payitforward]

John Wall's first half yesterday was the best I've ever seen by any point guard. Period.

Combine that with making LeBron look like a marginal rotation player, & that game was...

F ! U ! N !

[payitforward]

In his interview, Dekker said he doesn’t know any of Brook’s plays. Perhaps that’s why he did so well.

This may be a HOF post!

Gets my vote!!!!!!

[nate33]

I think some of the things OKC is doing for Westbrook can be a blueprint for how to manage Wall. Over the course of an 82 game season players like John Wall, Westbrook etc are best used in shifts not heavy minutes. In Wall's All-NBA 16-17 season he played a career high 36.4 mpg. Meanwhile Russell Westbrook in his MVP season only played 34 mpg (which I believe was one of the lowest mpg ever for an MVP winner).

Other stars can average 36 minutes without standing around half the game. I can live with Wall taking a few plays off from time to time. But that's not what's happening. Wall literally is the slowest player in the league in terms of average speed. He covers less ground than everyone else.

[Illmatic12]

I think some of the things OKC is doing for Westbrook can be a blueprint for how to manage Wall. Over the course of an 82 game season players like John Wall, Westbrook etc are best used in shifts not heavy minutes. In Wall's All-NBA 16-17 season he played a career high 36.4 mpg. Meanwhile Russell Westbrook in his MVP season only played 34 mpg (which I believe was one of the lowest mpg ever for an MVP winner).

Other stars can average 36 minutes without standing around half the game. I can live with Wall taking a few plays off from time to time. But that's not what's happening. Wall literally is the slowest player in the league in terms of average speed. He covers less ground than everyone else.

Source?

[nate33]

I think some of the things OKC is doing for Westbrook can be a blueprint for how to manage Wall. Over the course of an 82 game season players like John Wall, Westbrook etc are best used in shifts not heavy minutes. In Wall's All-NBA 16-17 season he played a career high 36.4 mpg. Meanwhile Russell Westbrook in his MVP season only played 34 mpg (which I believe was one of the lowest mpg ever for an MVP winner).

Other stars can average 36 minutes without standing around half the game. I can live with Wall taking a few plays off from time to time. But that's not what's happening. Wall literally is the slowest player in the league in terms of average speed. He covers less ground than everyone else.

Source?

Sorry. He was fourth slowest last year, but 2nd worst in time spent stationary.

This was from last season:

As I first noted in January, Wall spent more than 76 percent of his time on the floor either standing still or walking -- the highest share in the league at that time. One guy fell behind him by the end: Dirk Nowitzki. Wall's average speed clocked in at 3.83 miles per hour, the fourth-lowest figure in the league, per Second Spectrum. Yeah, Wall's top speed is elite. But there is no universe in which his average -- mean, median, mode -- should be almost dead freaking last. Hopefully his knees are right.

He's 3rd slowest this year according to nba.com

[Illmatic12]

Other stars can average 36 minutes without standing around half the game. I can live with Wall taking a few plays off from time to time. But that's not what's happening. Wall literally is the slowest player in the league in terms of average speed. He covers less ground than everyone else.

Source?

Sorry. He was fourth slowest last year, but 2nd worst in time spent stationary.

This was from last season:

As I first noted in January, Wall spent more than 76 percent of his time on the floor either standing still or walking -- the highest share in the league at that time. One guy fell behind him by the end: Dirk Nowitzki. Wall's average speed clocked in at 3.83 miles per hour, the fourth-lowest figure in the league, per Second Spectrum. Yeah, Wall's top speed is elite. But there is no universe in which his average -- mean, median, mode -- should be almost dead freaking last. Hopefully his knees are right.

He's 3rd slowest this year according to nba.com

See, there's a reason why I wanted you to pull the source -- because it provides context.
High usage creators from that link who are very slow movers relative to the rest of the league (4mph is considered average walking speed, so I'll use that as the upper limit):

James Harden
John Wall
Jeff Teague
Chris Paul
Lebron James
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Lou Williams

So how do we use this information? If the bottom of the avg speed rankings was all slow big men and then Wall was the only guard down with them, I'd more readily use the list to draw a conclusion. But the fact that several other high usage athletic guards/wings are also averaging a sub-walking speed, makes me wonder if there's more insight to tease out here and if it's deeper than just saying "he takes plays off".. I'm not saying Wall doesn't take plays off more than he should, but I think there's some deeper cause-effect here that's worthy of further discussion. It could be more about the style of play in which Wall is utilized, and less about his individual capabilities as a player.

[Ruzious]

Dekkers cuts and movement make Otto look like he's moving in mud by comparison.

And he's a very quick leaper - which hides his ordinary length (6'10 wingspan). Ultimately, he's got to show he can hit the 3 consistently, but the tools are there. He made 10 of 15 shots yesterday, and that's great but no 3's and no FT's.

I like Dekker.

Of course, if a guy comes in & goes 10-15 in the most fun Wizards game in who knows how long... of course I'm going to like him!!

As to the 3, so far he's shown that he cannot hit it consistently. 28.5% in his career on @4.2 attempts per 40 minutes.

Well, he maybe someowhat comparable to Trevor A3za in regards to 3 point shooting. Ariza hardly even tried them in his first 4 seasons. Then in year 5, he made 32%, and year 6 - 33%, year 7 - 30%.

[nate33]

Source?

Sorry. He was fourth slowest last year, but 2nd worst in time spent stationary.

This was from last season:

As I first noted in January, Wall spent more than 76 percent of his time on the floor either standing still or walking -- the highest share in the league at that time. One guy fell behind him by the end: Dirk Nowitzki. Wall's average speed clocked in at 3.83 miles per hour, the fourth-lowest figure in the league, per Second Spectrum. Yeah, Wall's top speed is elite. But there is no universe in which his average -- mean, median, mode -- should be almost dead freaking last. Hopefully his knees are right.

He's 3rd slowest this year according to nba.com

See, there's a reason why I wanted you to pull the source -- because it provides context.
High usage creators from that link who are very slow movers relative to the rest of the league (4mph is considered average walking speed, so I'll use that as the upper limit):

James Harden
John Wall
Jeff Teague
Chris Paul
Lebron James
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Lou Williams

So how do we use this information? If the bottom of the avg speed rankings was all slow big men and then Wall was the only guard down with them, I'd more readily use the list to draw a conclusion. But the fact that several other high usage athletic guards/wings are also averaging a sub-walking speed, makes me wonder if there's more insight to tease out here and if it's deeper than just saying "he takes plays off".. I'm not saying Wall doesn't take plays off more than he should, but I think there's some deeper cause-effect here that's worthy of further discussion. It could be more about the style of play in which Wall is utilized, and less about his individual capabilities as a player.

I disagree with this analysis.

The reason why some of those PG's you mention rank high on the list is because they are guarding other point guards. And since point guards play foul line to foul line (rather than baseline to baseline) and aren't running around screens all the time, they end up running less on defense.

If you look at only the offensive numbers, you will see only Teague and Houston's guards having numbers anywhere near as slow as Wall's. (Houston is a special case because they have that boring stand-around offensive that relies on everybody standing at the 3-point line while watching Harden go one-on-one. Teague apparently has the same problem as Wall, which is presumably why nobody really wants him despite him being an excellent penetrator.) Every other slow offensive player on the list is a big man or a 3&D 4th/5th option wing. Guys like Lillard, Westbrook and Williams have an average offensive speed at least 15% faster than Wall. You won't find them on the first page.

[truwizfan4evr]

John Wall's first half yesterday was the best I've ever seen by any point guard. Period.

Combine that with making LeBron look like a marginal rotation player, & that game was...

F ! U ! N !

best you seen this season or of all time?

[Illmatic12]

Sorry. He was fourth slowest last year, but 2nd worst in time spent stationary.

This was from last season:



He's 3rd slowest this year according to nba.com

See, there's a reason why I wanted you to pull the source -- because it provides context.
High usage creators from that link who are very slow movers relative to the rest of the league (4mph is considered average walking speed, so I'll use that as the upper limit):

James Harden
John Wall
Jeff Teague
Chris Paul
Lebron James
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Lou Williams

So how do we use this information? If the bottom of the avg speed rankings was all slow big men and then Wall was the only guard down with them, I'd more readily use the list to draw a conclusion. But the fact that several other high usage athletic guards/wings are also averaging a sub-walking speed, makes me wonder if there's more insight to tease out here and if it's deeper than just saying "he takes plays off".. I'm not saying Wall doesn't take plays off more than he should, but I think there's some deeper cause-effect here that's worthy of further discussion. It could be more about the style of play in which Wall is utilized, and less about his individual capabilities as a player.

I disagree with this analysis.

The reason why some of those PG's you mention rank high on the list is because they are guarding other point guards. And since point guards play foul line to foul line (rather than baseline to baseline) and aren't running around screens all the time, they end up running less on defense.

If you look at only the offensive numbers, you will see only Teague and Houston's guards having numbers anywhere near as slow as Wall's. (Houston is a special case because they have that boring stand-around offensive that relies on everybody standing at the 3-point line while watching Harden go one-on-one. Teague apparently has the same problem as Wall, which is presumably why nobody really wants him despite him being an excellent penetrator.) Every other slow offensive player on the list is a big man or a 3&D 4th/5th option wing. Guys like Lillard, Westbrook and Williams have an average offensive speed at least 15% faster than Wall. You won't find them on the first page.

I'm still not convinced that the stat is really all that instructive .. it doesn't tell us what specifically is happening when Wall is on the floor .. in the context of himself, the type of players in the lineup with him, and the offensive scheme. There are apparently good players with low average speed, and bad players with high average speed - therefore there is no "optimal" average speed. So looking at a measure of avg speed isn't really a sensible starting point in discussing ways to improve Wall's offensive output from where it is now.

For instance, let's say when Wall doesn't have the ball he is assigned to be on the perimeter spotting up for threes. If he starts hitting those spot up threes at ~38% instead of ~30%, he automatically becomes more valuable on offense even though his "average speed" hasn't changed. So could improving his spot up shooting be a more important factor than the speed with which he runs? If your point is that Wall doesn't create a whole lot of value off the ball I'd tend to agree , but one would have to look at a more detailed breakdown of why that's happening.

For example, here's a BBall_Index breakdown of Wall's production that provides more context

Read on Twitter

Synergy breakdown:

[Dark Faze]

Are they counting primary defender as the closest defender next to the shooter when the field goal attempt goes up?

[Dat2U]

Sorry. He was fourth slowest last year, but 2nd worst in time spent stationary.

This was from last season:



He's 3rd slowest this year according to nba.com

See, there's a reason why I wanted you to pull the source -- because it provides context.
High usage creators from that link who are very slow movers relative to the rest of the league (4mph is considered average walking speed, so I'll use that as the upper limit):

James Harden
John Wall
Jeff Teague
Chris Paul
Lebron James
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Lou Williams

So how do we use this information? If the bottom of the avg speed rankings was all slow big men and then Wall was the only guard down with them, I'd more readily use the list to draw a conclusion. But the fact that several other high usage athletic guards/wings are also averaging a sub-walking speed, makes me wonder if there's more insight to tease out here and if it's deeper than just saying "he takes plays off".. I'm not saying Wall doesn't take plays off more than he should, but I think there's some deeper cause-effect here that's worthy of further discussion. It could be more about the style of play in which Wall is utilized, and less about his individual capabilities as a player.

I disagree with this analysis.

The reason why some of those PG's you mention rank high on the list is because they are guarding other point guards. And since point guards play foul line to foul line (rather than baseline to baseline) and aren't running around screens all the time, they end up running less on defense.

If you look at only the offensive numbers, you will see only Teague and Houston's guards having numbers anywhere near as slow as Wall's. (Houston is a special case because they have that boring stand-around offensive that relies on everybody standing at the 3-point line while watching Harden go one-on-one. Teague apparently has the same problem as Wall, which is presumably why nobody really wants him despite him being an excellent penetrator.) Every other slow offensive player on the list is a big man or a 3&D 4th/5th option wing. Guys like Lillard, Westbrook and Williams have an average offensive speed at least 15% faster than Wall. You won't find them on the first page.

I think it's mainly the switching D which allows guys to switch off on basically everything and stay in one spot. Wall & Kieff are good for lazily switching so they can cover minimal ground.

Wall has also developed the bad habit of watching or walking when a shot goes up on the defensive end.

The stuff is really coachable. He definitely seems to limit this in games that matter to him. Also to be honest, I've noticed it, but less of it since he's come back from injury which may be a sign he feels physically better.

[Dat2U]

Your REALLY bullish on Beal I've noticed (and clearly not a fan of John Wall). I know you've convinced yourself that Beal is better than Wall, but I think a lot of people would take Wall over Beal if they were of equal contracts and age.

Nobody is dissing Bradley Beal, I think what everyone is alluding to is that overall John produces higher highs when he's on his A-game.

Remember when John averaged 30/10 in a playoff series against Atlanta on 59% TS? Or in last years playoffs when John averaged 26/11? Who has a short memory?

But Beal is absolutely a more consistent player and as you said fits into an offense better.

To be honest... I am coming more and more to the realization that moving Beal is the best option (Aside from a full blow up of trading everyone).
We really dont have big FA aspirations, so the additional cost of Wall over Beal isnt as pronounced as it would be for a team needing cap space.

Look how well high IQ players play with John. Otto, Sato, Brown, Dekker, Bryant, Green, etc.
He is like a poor mans Lebron. You have to play a certain way with him, but if you find your role, you can make a killing on open 3's and cutting to the basket.
Walls worst instincts occur when he plays with low IQ chuckers, because thats what he falls into. But when he plays with smart, ball movement oriented, team defenders... he seems to take on that energy as well

Beal is the only one that could get us an elite level prospect/pick.

I've been saying this for a while.. glad to see some others are opening their eyes.
Beal is easier to build around over the course of a regular season, but against elite competition he simply does not have the same talent or "take over" ability as John Wall. We've seen this time and time again, Brad is a better shooter but he's not as physically dominant and doesn't have the potential to make spontaneous plays like Wall against elite defenders. Brad is skilled as hell don't get me wrong, but he often has to think out all of his moves in a mechanical fashion, rather than being able to just act instinctively.



Furthermore, there is a perception that if we traded Wall, Beal would happily want to stay here as a centerpiece. That is a VERY dubious proposition.. imo Beal will not re-sign here past his next contract regardless of what happens (especially if Ernie remains in power), so we should NOT be putting our eggs in the Beal basket.


The Wizards best way out of their current predicament is to move Beal for a high upside , athletic forward (my dream is Aaron Gordon) + combo guard who can handle/score/defend (thinking someone like a Josh Richardson .. but maybe Troy Brown becomes that player) . And if we get an additional asset out of the deal, you use that to target a young rim running PnR big along the lines of Montrez Harrell.

Wall/Sato
Richardson/Brown
Porter/Ariza
Gordon/Dekker
Harrell/Bryant

^Something like that is a far better lineup to build around Wall with. The key is that we need to pair John with bigger, more athletic players at different positions. Your point guard should not be the most physical/athletic player in your lineup.

Hopefully more of you guys start to wake up and realize that trading Beal is the answer.

I was with you up until you said Aaron Gordon, who is playing pretty well I might add but maybe it's the draft geek in me that wants to trade Beal for the highest draft pick possible. Id prefer to just wait till after the lottery and shop Beal. To be honest, i believed we could have dealt Otto for Parsons and the 4th pick this past offseason. Obviously Otto doesnt have that value now but I think Beal could certainly fetch a top 5 pick to a team looking for an immediate all-star contributor.

[trast66]

See, there's a reason why I wanted you to pull the source -- because it provides context.
High usage creators from that link who are very slow movers relative to the rest of the league (4mph is considered average walking speed, so I'll use that as the upper limit):

James Harden
John Wall
Jeff Teague
Chris Paul
Lebron James
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Lou Williams

So how do we use this information? If the bottom of the avg speed rankings was all slow big men and then Wall was the only guard down with them, I'd more readily use the list to draw a conclusion. But the fact that several other high usage athletic guards/wings are also averaging a sub-walking speed, makes me wonder if there's more insight to tease out here and if it's deeper than just saying "he takes plays off".. I'm not saying Wall doesn't take plays off more than he should, but I think there's some deeper cause-effect here that's worthy of further discussion. It could be more about the style of play in which Wall is utilized, and less about his individual capabilities as a player.

I disagree with this analysis.

The reason why some of those PG's you mention rank high on the list is because they are guarding other point guards. And since point guards play foul line to foul line (rather than baseline to baseline) and aren't running around screens all the time, they end up running less on defense.

If you look at only the offensive numbers, you will see only Teague and Houston's guards having numbers anywhere near as slow as Wall's. (Houston is a special case because they have that boring stand-around offensive that relies on everybody standing at the 3-point line while watching Harden go one-on-one. Teague apparently has the same problem as Wall, which is presumably why nobody really wants him despite him being an excellent penetrator.) Every other slow offensive player on the list is a big man or a 3&D 4th/5th option wing. Guys like Lillard, Westbrook and Williams have an average offensive speed at least 15% faster than Wall. You won't find them on the first page.

I'm still not convinced that the stat is really all that instructive .. it doesn't tell us what specifically is happening when Wall is on the floor .. in the context of himself, the type of players in the lineup with him, and the offensive scheme. There are apparently good players with low average speed, and bad players with high average speed - therefore there is no "optimal" average speed. So looking at a measure of avg speed isn't really a sensible starting point in discussing ways to improve Wall's offensive output from where it is now.

For instance, let's say when Wall doesn't have the ball he is assigned to be on the perimeter spotting up for threes. If he starts hitting those spot up threes at ~38% instead of ~30%, he automatically becomes more valuable on offense even though his "average speed" hasn't changed. So could improving his spot up shooting be a more important factor than the speed with which he runs? If your point is that Wall doesn't create a whole lot of value off the ball I'd tend to agree , but one would have to look at a more detailed breakdown of why that's happening.

For example, here's a BBall_Index breakdown of Wall's production that provides more context

Read on Twitter

Synergy breakdown:

Very interesting discussion!
What am I missing that this is John’s best defensive season? I think it’s his worst since rookie probably, but I guess (at least those) numbers don’t support me.

[Shanghai Kid]

Very interesting this idea that Wall might lowkey be on the verge of having his best season.

He def seems a lot quicker lately. Think he's lost some weight in the last month.

My thing is, John could be one of the elite players in the league if he just played with the same energy he did in the Lakers game every night. It baffles me that he either doesn't realize it or doesn't care to do it. His talent level is enormous, but some nights he doesn't seem to play hard.

[ozthegap]

Didn't he say he had bone spurs taken out of his foot. that could be why hes suddenly playing better the last 2 games. No?

[Kanyewest]

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