Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[BigA]

i have a question for everyone what was Ernie worst move as a wizards gm?

You could do a poll I guess. Vesely/2011 draft, trading the 5th pick for Miller/Foye in 2009, and the Mahinmi signing are my top 3 right now.

[pcbothwel]

i have a question for everyone what was Ernie worst move as a wizards gm?

Hmmm... Interesting question. I think the Arenas extension is overblown. Yes, it was AWFUL. But you need to look at how it impacted the franchise.
We ended up getting the 1st pick/Wall, end then eventually revived Ariza... So while the transaction itself was awful, what came from it wasnt as bad.

I think the obvious answer is Summer 2016.
If we simply hired a better coach and then used the cap space to sign Porter we could be in a very different place.
After Horford turned us down, we should of used the cap space to sign Porter. We could of signed him to a 4/90-100M extension, and moved 10-15M of it into 16/17.
So instead of him making 5.8M / 24M / 26M / 27M / 28M
He would of made 15M / 17M / 18M / 19M / 20M

Fill out the roster with 1 year deals and go back into FA in 2017 where we could of signed Mirotic or Olynyk...

We have to look at the outcome of bad decisions and not just the decision itself.
Another example: The Wall DPE looks TERRIBLE right now. But lets say we move him by the deadline for expirings and a pick... do we really think we would of gotten more for an expiring Wall?

[nate33]

i have a question for everyone what was Ernie worst move as a wizards gm?

Hmmm... Interesting question. I think the Arenas extension is overblown. Yes, it was AWFUL. But you need to look at how it impacted the franchise.
We ended up getting the 1st pick/Wall, end then eventually revived Ariza... So while the transaction itself was awful, what came from it wasnt as bad.

I think the obvious answer is Summer 2016.
If we simply hired a better coach and then used the cap space to sign Porter we could be in a very different place.
After Horford turned us down, we should of used the cap space to sign Porter. We could of signed him to a 4/90-100M extension, and moved 10-15M of it into 16/17.
So instead of him making 5.8M / 24M / 26M / 27M / 28M
He would of made 15M / 17M / 18M / 19M / 20M

Fill out the roster with 1 year deals and go back into FA in 2017 where we could of signed Mirotic or Olynyk...

We have to look at the outcome of bad decisions and not just the decision itself.
Another example: The Wall DPE looks TERRIBLE right now. But lets say we move him by the deadline for expirings and a pick... do we really think we would of gotten more for an expiring Wall?

I agree that Summer 2016 was awful, but I still rank it second behind the incomprehensible Miller/Foye trade.

In both cases though, the move in question was so obviously bad at the moment it was made. At least with the Arenas extension, the Wall extension, even the Vesely pick, there was at least some justification at the time. You could at least envision a scenario where the move paid off.

[payitforward]

i have a question for everyone what was Ernie worst move as a wizards gm?

Hmmm... Interesting question. I think the Arenas extension is overblown. Yes, it was AWFUL. But you need to look at how it impacted the franchise.
We ended up getting the 1st pick/Wall, end then eventually revived Ariza... So while the transaction itself was awful, what came from it wasnt as bad....

We have to look at the outcome of bad decisions and not just the decision itself....

Absolutely not! What an idea!!

If I get drunk, drive on the wrong side of the highway, total my car & am taken to the hospital -- where a nurse & I fall in love, then get married later & live happily ever after, have kids, etc. -- that doesn't make my decision to drive drunk on the wrong side of the highway one bit better.

Not even if I happen to find a diamond ring on the tarmac while I'm lying in the wreckage & later give it to my nurse/wife.

Plus, we got the #1 pick from the ping pong balls not from re-signing Arenas. If you want to praise Ernie, praise him for one of the few excellent moves he's made: e.g. trading Arenas for Rashard Lewis.

Of course he proceeded to piss in his own soup by using Lewis to acquire Ariza & Okafor -- whatever would make you think that was a good trade? What benefit did we get? Okafor was injured & became worthless after 1 year (his injury was no surprise), & Ariza left as a FA.

Another example: The Wall DPE looks TERRIBLE right now. But lets say we move him by the deadline for expirings and a pick... do we really think we would of gotten more for an expiring Wall?

Another ridiculous example! Just for starters, we haven't moved him for expirings & a pick, have we?

Nor was trading him on his own the only alternative to giving him a Supermax. Man.... back to logic class, dude. If that's too far away, try the real world. Make a bad decision & you cause yourself trouble.

What if he leaves his millions for cancer research & they turn out to cure cancer? That'd be great huh?

I think the obvious answer is Summer 2016....

That was terrible to be sure. But the die was cast long before that. Just look at the 2011 draft. Or pissing away a lottery pick on Kieff. Or pissing away a R1 pick to jettison Nicholson (admittedly connected to the awful Summer 2016). Or getting the absolute minimum out of what continues to look like it was a great draft in '18. Or the many other wasted draft picks -- I provided the long list.

Signing Maynor. Signing Harrington.

The last actually good stretch of GM-ing Ernie did (aside from the Arenas trade) was in the Spring of 2010 when he took advantage of teams that wanted to jump into the UFA frenzy -- he turned nothing into an extra R1 pick (Seraphin), turned nothing into a trade up to get Booker, & turned nothing into an extra R1 pick in '11.

Of course, he then turned all those 3 good things into nothing all on his own. But, that's our Ernie.

[pcbothwel]

Dude...PIF, you need to chill
What Im saying is EG has a NUMBER of bad moves. But to really find the worst, we need to look at all the consequences.
Again, It could be argured at this moment that the Wall extension turns out to be the worst move... what if he blows his knee out. You dont think that matters that we gave him the extension early?

[payitforward]

Dude...PIF, you need to chill
What Im saying is EG has a NUMBER of bad moves. But to really find the worst, we need to look at all the consequences.
Again, It could be argured at this moment that the Wall extension turns out to be the worst move... what if he blows his knee out. You dont think that matters that we gave him the extension early?

Dude, I am chill.

No, I really don't. To take a relatively non-controversial instance that might explain what I mean: Kevin Seraphin turned out to be quite a bad NBA player. But, I don't think that means it was a bad decision to draft him #17 in 2010. The opposite in fact -- I think it was a reasonable decision.

I think that about trading up from 19 to 15 to get Oubre as well. Even though, in retrospect, if we'd stayed at 19 there were a ton of players we'd have been better off to draft. Hell, we might have been able to trade *down* & get Memphis's #31 & #36 for our #19 & taken Montrezl Harrell & Pat Connaughton or Josh Richardson.

But, that doesn't make the decision to trade up a bad decision.

[bondom34]

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[payitforward]

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Yep. Hruby is using my list.

It is now 3 years, 5 months & @3 weeks since the night of the 2015 draft. In that time, Ernie has turned our...

2015 R1 pick
2016 R1 pick (a lottery pick)
2017 R1 pick
2015 R2 pick
2017 R2 pick
3 more future R2 picks

...into NOTHING -- i.e. expiring salaries for 2 journeymen at the end of their careers.

In some ways, the most egregiously bad work was the truly hard to imagine trick of turning a trivial FA signing of a $3m/year back up guard (Meeks) into giving away a R2 pick!

[payitforward]

Oh, I forgot -- in order to have the assets he needed to accomplish that list of horrible moves, Ernie first had to trade away our 2014 R1.
Edit: trade that R1 pick for an expiring salary!

Yes, that's right. From the beginning of R2 in 2013 through the end of R2 in 2017 (that's 4.5 drafts), we owned a total of 11 draft picks. Ernie turned those 11 picks into literally nothing -- but to do so, he had to throw in another 3 picks (our next 3 R2 picks).

IOW, in less than 3.5 years, Ernie has discarded 14 draft picks. Come the end of this season, we will have literally nothing -- ZERO! -- for all those picks.

Someone tell me how this guy has a job.

[Ruzious]

Oh, I forgot -- in order to have the assets he needed to accomplish that list of horrible moves, Ernie first had to trade away our 2014 R1.

Yes, that's right. From the beginning of R2 in 2013 through the end of R2 in 2017 (that's 4.5 drafts), we owned a total of 11 draft picks. Ernie turned those 11 picks into literally nothing -- but to do so, he had to throw in another 3 picks (our next 3 R2 picks).

IOW, in less than 3.5 years, Ernie has discarded 14 draft picks. Come the end of this season, we will have literally nothing -- ZERO! -- for all those picks.

Someone tell me how this guy has a job.

It's gotta have something to do with incriminating pictures of Ted and Keebler elves. No other explanation fits.

[payitforward]

Has Ernie made other bad moves in the time period I'm discussing?

No point in mentioning his signing Nicholson -- that's subsumed in his having p(ssed away the 2017 R1 pick. Or trading for Burke -- that's covered as one of the p(ssed away R2 picks.

But he did give Mahinmi $65m. That's at least as bad as all the other stuff I've mentioned.

Then again, has Ernie made even one good move in the time period I'm discussing?

Well, he gave max salaries to Beal & Porter & a super-max to Wall. You can make up your own mind which if any of those moves was good. & he signed Jeff Green as a 1-year rent-a-player at vet. minimum: that's turned out better than I expected.

He also picked Troy Brown #15 in the recent draft. Brown looks like a very promising prospect, & -- although Ernie got the absolute minimum possible out of a truly exceptionally deep draft -- it's at least good that he didn't pick a bust.

But his best move, without a doubt, was signing Thomas Bryant off of waivers -- he's going to be good, & it cost us nothing to acquire him.

I'd love to give Ernie a lot of credit for this, but I'm sure this is how it went down:

Rob Pelinka knew that Bryant had a lot of promise, but he also knew that he couldn't keep him given what the Lakers had in mind to do for this season. So he called Ernie & told him Bryant would be available & strongly recommended picking him up.

Why call Ernie? B/c Pelinka didn't want to see Bryant on a team in the WC -- where the decision to let him go might come back to haunt him. Much better that he play as far away as possible. Especially that he play for a run of the mill team like the Wizards.

I'd be willing to bet $100 that's more or less how it went down.

Still... Ernie should get some credit, shouldn't he? He might have said no.

[payitforward]

One more good move: the trade for Sam Dekker might turn out ok.

Sam's a tweener; if he can be effective at the 3, he can help us. If he can only play the 4, not so much....

[nuposse04]

I still find it hilarious that nba writers on twitter give grunfeld credit for drafting Wall, Beal and Porter. Low expectations for some folks.

[nate33]

One more good move: the trade for Sam Dekker might turn out ok.

Sam's a tweener; if he can be effective at the 3, he can help us. If he can only play the 4, not so much....

I'm actually hoping he gains a bit more weight and ends up moving to PF full time (assuming we keep him beyond this year). Next year, Morris will be gone and retaining Green seems doubtful. We're going to need some bodies to back up Porter at PF, and that assumes Brown is ready to start at SF. We may have Porter start at SF and we'll have nobody at all to play PF.

Also, in general, I think it's easier for tweeners to move to the bigger position rather than the smaller position. It's easier to bulk up as you age than it is to get quicker. Finally, his 3-point shot may never be good enough for a SF, but PF's typically get a bit more time to get their shot off and you'll live with 33% shooting from your PF while you want 37%+ from your wings.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

I opened this thread hoping to find his skills....nope, non-existent.

[pcbothwel]

One more good move: the trade for Sam Dekker might turn out ok.

Sam's a tweener; if he can be effective at the 3, he can help us. If he can only play the 4, not so much....

Again... I dont get this. Thaddeus Young, Kelly Olynyk, Kieff, Otto, Jeff Green, Gallo, Siakim... All play the 4/5 and rebound as well as Dekker.

[Jamaaliver]

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[FAH1223]

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[FAH1223]

So... Brendan Haywood saw I mentioned him on my Instagram story. It was an NBATV clip where he said he doesn’t understand trading young for old and not getting assets.

He messaged me and said Ernie is the worst GM in the league.

I’m gonna post a screen shot.

[queridiculo]

It goes without saying that Grunfeld will be back next season. How else do you explain Leonsis green lighting this awful Ariza trade?