2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1861 » by Pillendreher » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:55 pm

slick_watts wrote:i think it's interesting that all of a sudden apm metrics aren't being considered.


Food for thought: He's climbing on RPM and he's 12th now in single year PIPM. I don't have any RAPM stats though.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1862 » by slick_watts » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:59 pm

Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i think it's interesting that all of a sudden apm metrics aren't being considered.


Food for thought: He's climbing on RPM and he's 12th now in single year PIPM. I don't have any RAPM stats though.


he won't stay in the 40's or where ever he's ranked i'm just saying. i don't think there's a lot of evidence that westbrook has demonstrated these qualities people are talking about to the degree they are talking about. what do you think?
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1863 » by bondom34 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:06 am

Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i think it's interesting that all of a sudden apm metrics aren't being considered.


Food for thought: He's climbing on RPM and he's 12th now in single year PIPM. I don't have any RAPM stats though.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

Climbing as well.

Note: Harden's been a fiend on offense . But his defense has been yikes.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1864 » by spearsy23 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:20 am

All slick wants is Russ to be there best player ever, is that really too much to ask?
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1865 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:36 am

slick_watts wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i think it's interesting that all of a sudden apm metrics aren't being considered.


Food for thought: He's climbing on RPM and he's 12th now in single year PIPM. I don't have any RAPM stats though.


he won't stay in the 40's or where ever he's ranked i'm just saying. i don't think there's a lot of evidence that westbrook has demonstrated these qualities people are talking about to the degree they are talking about. what do you think?


I think this is a "prisoner of the moment"-thing. When Russ was not willing to defend even a little bit and we lost games because of it, nobody was talking about it. Now he gives good effort defensively a couple of games in a row, he gets all this praise. Let him do it for a couple of months because you start hyping him.

And regarding the offensive stuff: He needs to get going scoring wise. A lot of his struggles have been overshadowed by George playing this well.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1866 » by getrichordie » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:37 am

I think an underrated factor when discussing Russ’ performance is that we’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league so far and have one of the most difficult remaining schedules. I would take the ORtg numbers with a grain of salt for this reason.

It’s good that we are beating lesser teams and that’s a good sign, but I would withhold judgement on Westbrook’s performance and re-evaluate his game at all-star break when we have faced some tougher competition.

Westbrook is definitely changing his game, though, and the reason he is changing his game is up for debate, but I suspect it’s because he’s feeling those minutes and knows his body isn’t going to hold up to the old Westbrook ways.

Old Westbrook ways would have meant higher-usage, not getting teammates as involved as he is now, more drives to the hole. More “I can do it myself” ball.

New Westbrook (I feel like I’m talking about Testaments now) is playing smarter overall, but shooting %s are down. We are seeing better defense (although still inconsistent at times) and smarter use of offensive possessions from Westbrook even though his shooting is down.

I’m all for the new and improved Westbrook as this is the way I’ve wanted to see him play for years, but he has to start shooting the ball a bit better.

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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1867 » by getrichordie » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:43 am

Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:
Food for thought: He's climbing on RPM and he's 12th now in single year PIPM. I don't have any RAPM stats though.


he won't stay in the 40's or where ever he's ranked i'm just saying. i don't think there's a lot of evidence that westbrook has demonstrated these qualities people are talking about to the degree they are talking about. what do you think?


I think this is a "prisoner of the moment"-thing. When Russ was not willing to defend even a little bit and we lost games because of it, nobody was talking about it. Now he gives good effort defensively a couple of games in a row, he gets all this praise. Let him do it for a couple of months because you start hyping him.

And regarding the offensive stuff: He needs to get going scoring wise. A lot of his struggles have been overshadowed by George playing this well.


This. Westbrook has certainly looked better on defense at times this year and you would love to see him be more consistent and I think we will. I now have faith in Westbrook from the changes I’ve seen in his game this year. He’s not forcing the issue as much which I think is yielding better overall results for his lineups.

He has to be a more efficient scorer, no doubt, but I would also add that he needs to recognize when his shot is not on and start feeding others the ball and try to get his teammates going and he has been doing that and I give him credit for that. Westbrook is starting to realize that he doesn’t have to shoot the ball every goddamn time to be effective.




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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1868 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:27 am

Per basketball-reference.com, Westbrook-George this season is currently on pace to be the best Westbrook Two-Man-Lineup with at least 600 mp in Thunder history. If you disregard Westbrook-Collison from 2011/2012 since Collison was obviously coming off the bench, the next best one is Westbrook-Durant in 2015/2016 at +12.8. Westbrook-George has been a full 2 points per 100 possessions better than that at +14.8.

This year's Westbrook-George lineup is also on pace to have the best ORtG for any Westbrook two-man-lineup ever (121.9; Westbrook-Durant in 2015/2016 was at 117.3) Defensively, the lineup would rank 38th among Westbrook two-man-lineups with at least 600 mp.

Relative to league average, Westbrook-George is currently +12.1 offensively and -2.7 defensively. For comparison: Westbrook-Durant in 2015/2016 was +10.9 offensively and -1.9 defensively.
Looking at all the qualifying lineups from 2010/2011 on (50 total) relative to league average, this season's Westbrook-George would rank 4th offensively (1st if you discount the lineups with bench players ahead of it with Westbrook-Collison in 2011/2012, Westrook-Kanter in 2015/2016 and Westbrook-Harden in 2011/2012) and 16th defensively (the best on in that regard is still Westbrook-Roberson which was almost 9pp100p better defensively than the rest of the league; just goes to show how much our bench matters to our overall defense this season).

Edit:


Image

Image

Image

Offensively, this is just very impressive considering that Westbrook's at 46.9 eFG%/49.2 TS%/29.7 USG% in the Westbrook-George lineup this season.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1869 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:44 am

Since this was talked about after the recent losses: I looked at our opponents and how they've fared against us offensively compared to their regular season average ORtG. All teams before the first orange bar belong to the bottom 3rd in ORtG, all teams between the first and second orange bar belong to the 33rd to 66th percentile, and all teams after the 2nd orange bar belong to the upper 3rd in ORtG.

Image

I think this shows that they've been able to keep teams below their average offensive performance quite regularly, regardless of their offensive level. Even the best offensive teams have been between ~5 and 10 pp100p worse offensively against us than compared to their season average.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1870 » by slick_watts » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:58 pm

Pillendreher wrote:Since this was talked about after the recent losses: I looked at our opponents and how they've fared against us offensively compared to their regular season average ORtG. All teams before the first orange bar belong to the bottom 3rd in ORtG, all teams between the first and second orange bar belong to the 33rd to 66th percentile, and all teams after the 2nd orange bar belong to the upper 3rd in ORtG.

Image

I think this shows that they've been able to keep teams below their average offensive performance quite regularly, regardless of their offensive level. Even the best offensive teams have been between ~5 and 10 pp100p worse offensively against us than compared to their season average.


bbr's srs-like adjustment to drtg tells similar story, that the thunder's defense as it is and when adjusted for opponent strength are similar. it's the other side of the ball that's concerning since we drop a point and a half on pp100 when you account for opponent defenses. it's by far the largest drop off in the league. pacers #2 at -0.78pp100 when adjusted for opponent defense.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1871 » by RunOKC » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:24 pm

Pillendreher wrote:Since this was talked about after the recent losses: I looked at our opponents and how they've fared against us offensively compared to their regular season average ORtG. All teams before the first orange bar belong to the bottom 3rd in ORtG, all teams between the first and second orange bar belong to the 33rd to 66th percentile, and all teams after the 2nd orange bar belong to the upper 3rd in ORtG.

Image

I think this shows that they've been able to keep teams below their average offensive performance quite regularly, regardless of their offensive level. Even the best offensive teams have been between ~5 and 10 pp100p worse offensively against us than compared to their season average.

This is excellent, good work :D
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1872 » by getrichordie » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:28 pm

RunOKC wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:Since this was talked about after the recent losses: I looked at our opponents and how they've fared against us offensively compared to their regular season average ORtG. All teams before the first orange bar belong to the bottom 3rd in ORtG, all teams between the first and second orange bar belong to the 33rd to 66th percentile, and all teams after the 2nd orange bar belong to the upper 3rd in ORtG.

Image

I think this shows that they've been able to keep teams below their average offensive performance quite regularly, regardless of their offensive level. Even the best offensive teams have been between ~5 and 10 pp100p worse offensively against us than compared to their season average.

This is excellent, good work :D


Agreed. Good job, OP. Would be interested to see what this looks like if the Westbrook-less games were indicated somehow.


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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1873 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:30 pm

getrichordie wrote:
RunOKC wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:Since this was talked about after the recent losses: I looked at our opponents and how they've fared against us offensively compared to their regular season average ORtG. All teams before the first orange bar belong to the bottom 3rd in ORtG, all teams between the first and second orange bar belong to the 33rd to 66th percentile, and all teams after the 2nd orange bar belong to the upper 3rd in ORtG.

Image

I think this shows that they've been able to keep teams below their average offensive performance quite regularly, regardless of their offensive level. Even the best offensive teams have been between ~5 and 10 pp100p worse offensively against us than compared to their season average.

This is excellent, good work :D


Agreed. Good job, OP. Would be interested to see what this looks like if the Westbrook-less games were indicated somehow.


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God damn you! I knew I should have saved the Excel file :lol:
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1874 » by getrichordie » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:40 pm

Pillendreher wrote:
getrichordie wrote:
RunOKC wrote:This is excellent, good work :D


Agreed. Good job, OP. Would be interested to see what this looks like if the Westbrook-less games were indicated somehow.


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God damn you! I knew I should have saved the Excel file :lol:


Haha! Are you using some type of tool to pull the data from CTG? Or are you inputting the data manually?


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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1875 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:54 pm

getrichordie wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:
getrichordie wrote:
Agreed. Good job, OP. Would be interested to see what this looks like if the Westbrook-less games were indicated somehow.


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God damn you! I knew I should have saved the Excel file :lol:


Haha! Are you using some type of tool to pull the data from CTG? Or are you inputting the data manually?


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I'm just cross-referencing these two sites:

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612760/boxscores-advanced/?sort=gdate&dir=-1
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1876 » by SecondTake » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:48 pm

Honestly I prefer a Westbrook scoring 20 a night and playing elite defense than a WB scoring 28 with mediocre defense.

The past 5-6 games WB is playing elite defense - I mean he's seriously dominating that side of the court. His scoring is down, but he's making much better decisions, he's more patient, he's not using the clock up as much and playing excellent defense. To me he's having more impact now than he did when he was putting up 28/10/10.

Obviously this only work if Paul George keeps playing like Miami Lebron. If George slumps like he did late last season (which seems to have been due to fluid in his elbow) then WB gonna have to start scoring more and his D will drop.

But if PG keeps scoring 26+ a game with good play making then I'm happy to see WB scoring 20 with elite D.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1877 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:59 pm

SecondTake wrote:I mean he's seriously dominating that side of the court.


No, he isn't. Being active defensively for once does not mean he is "dominating". He's far from that.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1878 » by SecondTake » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:02 pm

Pillendreher wrote:
SecondTake wrote:I mean he's seriously dominating that side of the court.


No, he isn't. Being active defensively for once does not mean he is "dominating". He's far from that.


The past 5 games?
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1879 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:45 pm

Single season RAPM

http://nbashotcharts.com/fourfactors?id=-1106328546


Non luck adjusted

Adams 7th overall
George 12th overall
Grant 23rd overall
Westbrook 26th overall
Schröder 35th overall
Ferguson 93rd overall
Burton 122nd overall
Abrines 202nd overall
Patterson 344th overall
Diallo 346th overall
Felton 388th overall
TLC 397th overall
Noel 418th overall
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1880 » by Pillendreher » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:50 pm

Read on Twitter


Not a single Thunder player in the Top 10.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said

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