OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto

[HaroldinGMinor]

Interesting theory that some money managers/funds will want to lock in any gains they might already have in order to window dress their performance for 12/31 year end reporting. The idea being that you'll see less new cash deployed here these last four trading days of the year, meaning prices won't recover just yet.

If you subscribe to this theory, you'd want to buy into the market before 12/31 with a belief that a lot of pent up cash will roar back in on January 2nd.

Completely plausible theory. It's why individual investing philosophies shouldnt follow the institutional ones.

[M-C-G]

What makes you guys think we have hit bottom? Rumors the FED is planning on raising interest rates in March 2019 again, it makes no sense but it doesn’t look good if they do.

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Don't care about rock bottom at all (MD is right, impossible to predict). For us, it's just a good time to buy.

Yeah, fair enough, I just suspect we have another dip ahead of us, but only if those rumors about another FED hike are true, which I have no clue about.

Anyways, if it does dip some more, a lot of wealth to be made in the future for a lot of folks.

[Iheartfootball]

Fundamentals are good. Emotions strong right now.

[BuckHole]

11/20/18 Gold spot price at $1221 oz. Remind me in a year if this was a good time to buy.

Gold at $1279/oz on 12/26/18. Let’s watch how high it’ll get.
If you want to hear a financial guy talk negative about our current economy and its forcast, listen to Peter Schiff’s podcast. I’m not looking for an argument, just sharing an educated expert’s forecast; time will tell.

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[paulpressey25]

Schiff has been predicting doom and gloom for decades now. He’s correct in that the Fiat money system of the US has to collapse at some point but when is the answer. Could be another 20-30 years.

[M-C-G]

Schiff has been predicting doom and gloom for decades now. He’s correct in that the Fiat money system of the US has to collapse at some point but when is the answer. Could be another 20-30 years.

I feel like where there is smoke there is fire and the FED is smoking right now with Trump at the helm. I’m not a doomsday advocate but I moved a number of investments around to metals just to wait out the next 6 months and see what is what. I can live with lost gains while in stable metals to avoid the risks for now. Will re-evaluate every 12 weeks or so.


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[paulpressey25]

I feel like where there is smoke there is fire and the FED is smoking right now with Trump at the helm.

Trump isn't at the helm here and that's why he's smoldering. This is all Jerome Powell deciding to bring interest rates and the Fed balance sheet back to normal post 2008. A job that Yellen should have done gradually in the 2012-2016 period but didn't.

All that said, I'd concur with having some small percentage in physical gold (which can be held via certain funds and ETF's) as a hedge against all of it. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is stock/entity that actually holds the gold physically in vaults in Canada.

[MickeyDavis]

Agreed. A small percentage in metals is always a good idea. In my case about 8% currently. I'm tempted to up it to 10-12%

[BucksFanSD]

The past three months I have been in mostly all in cash, 401k in the G fund, and trading/investing only some in gold mining companies. I put my 401k to work in high risk funds however on Christmas Eve. I will be in a short time however as the main reason I did so was because I thought the market was oversold and still looking strong despite what was some speculation. In general however, I am looking to be in CDs starting next year (and continue to invest a little in any gold pullbacks) as interest rates rise a little further and a potential recession looming as a small but real possibility (the market reacts/predicts what will happen six months from now).

It was a really good ride the last nine years. If I miss out on further gains I am perfectly fine with that as I prefer to play more conservative now at this stage in the business cycle. Although, as always, I re-access every so often on current conditions as things change.

[M-C-G]

I feel like where there is smoke there is fire and the FED is smoking right now with Trump at the helm.

Trump isn't at the helm here and that's why he's smoldering. This is all Jerome Powell deciding to bring interest rates and the Fed balance sheet back to normal post 2008. A job that Yellen should have done gradually in the 2012-2016 period but didn't.

All that said, I'd concur with having some small percentage in physical gold (which can be held via certain funds and ETF's) as a hedge against all of it. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is stock/entity that actually holds the gold physically in vaults in Canada.

I'm trying to digest all the content in this article and am somewhat failing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-28/arrival-credit-crisis

[paulpressey25]

I'm trying to digest all the content in this article and am somewhat failing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-28/arrival-credit-crisis

The guy at ZeroHedge writes some interesting stuff which is important to be aware of. That said, he's always coming at things from a very significant doom and gloom perspective. The TL:DR of that page is that the US economic expansion is built on easy credit and their might be a correction in that area due to defaults on corporate loans and bonds thus bringing about a slowdown.

For an opposite view give a read to some things that Brian Wesbury writes - > https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx

He's a strong optimist on the US economy and stocks and has been for a few years now.

[paulpressey25]

Bitcoin at $3,900 +/-.

[REDDzone]

You guys who sell everything and sit in cash boggle my mind. Not saying you're wrong or right, just way different than my strategy. I've been buying three times a month, as per usual, and will be buying more over the next month or two as I max out our IRAs for the year. I've also still been investing in crypto (a couple bucks here and there into BTC, still less than 5% of my portfolio). I'm ~30 years away from retirement, pretty sure the market will be up by the time that happens, unless it goes to zero in which case it's irrelevant if I bought at the exact bottom and sold at the exact top anyway.

[MickeyDavis]

You guys who sell everything and sit in cash boggle my mind. Not saying you're wrong or right, just way different than my strategy. I've been buying three times a month, as per usual, and will be buying more over the next month or two as I max out our IRAs for the year. I've also still been investing in crypto (a couple bucks here and there into BTC, still less than 5% of my portfolio). I'm ~30 years away from retirement, pretty sure the market will be up by the time that happens, unless it goes to zero in which case it's irrelevant if I bought at the exact bottom and sold at the exact top anyway.

It all depends on your timeline. The younger you are the more aggressive you can/should be. Especially with retirement money. Those who are sitting on a large chunk of cash have their reasons. Risk tolerance is huge. Some don't have it and that's fine. Some are cautious with their cash. I get it. You have to sleep well. I have a balanced portfolio in and out of retirement money and I rebalance periodically. And I have a bit of gambling money in crypto.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

RIP Jack Bogle. If you want to invest properly, watch an interview of this man for twenty minutes.

Quick anecdote: Was watching an interview with him yesterday where he was talking about how he shifted to bonds before the crash. He had the fact pattern to be able to brag that he was a genius and knew it was coming. Instead, he made it very clear it was dumb luck because he was having heart issue and didn’t think he was going to live long, so he allocated to bonds in the short-term. Believed in what he preached and transferred wealth to hundred of thousands of Americans through his business.

[BuckHole]

11/20/18 Gold spot price at $1221 oz. Remind me in a year if this was a good time to buy.

1/29/19 Gold spot at $1310/oz.

[M-C-G]

11/20/18 Gold spot price at $1221 oz. Remind me in a year if this was a good time to buy.

1/29/19 Gold spot at $1310/oz.

My gold investments are up about 9% and silver 12% just over the last couple of months.

It will be interesting to see if these hold or grow with all the geopolitical stuff going on right now. I suspect they will.

[bizarro]

Gold is actually valuable in its physical form. Not the numismatic junk. Actual hold. If you want it as part of your investment strategy my best recommendation is hold it. But, really, its been silver time for the past several years. We’ll see if the ratio improves.

BTC is most likely not done bottoming. My TA says $2850 is the retest of the last bottom - within 5% (touched $32–‘s in the past month or so). If it breaks that resistance the next level is $1950. I have a VERY hard time imagining the manipulators that be (erego the Tether scammers) will let it go beyond that. Anyhow: it’s Alt season anyway. If you are looking at BTC as a long-term investment that window is approaching. Should enter that 5% relatively soon. If you are buying the $2850/1950 window the as a position trade, the first sell point according to my TA is the fib around $6300. Buy back in on the retrace or redistribute to Alts.

Speaking of Alts. Here’s free prospecting based in TA: alta with really good set-ups for 2019

Iota
Factotum
Qtum
Ada
Zilliqa
Ark

Best of luck, gents!

[M-C-G]

Gold is actually valuable in its physical form. Not the numismatic junk. Actual hold. If you want it as part of your investment strategy my best recommendation is hold it. But, really, its been silver time for the past several years. We’ll see if the ratio improves.

!

I think I found something in between physically holding gold and silver and investing, but was thinking of making the move to physical. Assuming their model is legit, PHYS and PSLV, physically hold on your behalf and you are suppose to be able to come in and collect your physical if you ever desire.

Now, if apocalypse hits, I am ****, but otherwise I think it is a pretty elegant solution.

[MickeyDavis]

I wish there were good investments to be made on coins. And I'm sure there are, I just don't have the time to sift through it all and do the proper research. I think proof sets are sweet but I know there's not much to be made on them. Individual coins would be the way to go. Maybe someday I'll do a deep dive.