#10 Greatest Defensive PF of All-Time - Top 10 Defensively at each position project

[trex_8063]

Point Guards:

1. Jason Kidd
2. Walt Frazier
3. Gary Payton
4. Dennis Johnson
5. Jerry West
6. John Stockton
7. Chris Paul
8. Mookie Blaylock
9. Nate McMillan
10. Mo Cheeks

Shooting Guards:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Sidney Moncrief
3. Tony Allen
4. Michael Cooper
5. Alvin Robertson
6. Eddie Jones
7. Jerry Sloan
8. Joe Dumars
9. Danny Green
10. Don Chaney


Small Forwards:

1. Scottie Pippen
2. Ron Artest
3. Lebron James
4. Andre Iguodala
5. Shane Battier
6. John Havlicek
7. Bruce Bowen
8. Shawn Marion
9. Luol Deng
10. Kawhi Leonard


Power Forwards:

1. Tim Duncan
2. Kevin Garnett
3. Bobby Jones
4. Dennis Rodman
5. Elvin Hayes
6. Dave DeBusschere
7. Draymond Green
8. Kevin McHale
9. Rasheed Wallace

And this is where it started
Idea


THE CANDIDATES
Larry Nance
Bo Outlaw
Gus Johnson
Horace Grant
Paul Millsap
Anthony Mason
Buck Williams
Maurice Lucas
Karl Malone
Paul Silas
PJ Brown
Charles Oakley
Dan Roundfield
Jermaine O'Neal
Josh Smith
Serge Ibaka
Bob Love
AC Green
Maurice Stokes
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Lonnie Shelton
Clifford Robinson
Bill Bridges
Rudy LaRusso
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Hi guys

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[Jaivl]

I haven't looked at the threads (nor voted) in forever (busy with Master's) so I won't vote now, but my top candidates would prooobably be Outlaw, Grant and O'Neal. IDK about you guys.

[Dr Positivity]

Should Mason be in this conversation more?

[trex_8063]

I haven't looked at the threads (nor voted) in forever (busy with Master's) so I won't vote now, but my top candidates would prooobably be Outlaw, Grant and O'Neal. IDK about you guys.

Those are probably my top three candidates too (perhaps along with Paul Silas [uncertain due to limited eye-test] and Karl Malone [longevity pick] as a top five). And Oakley, Nance, and Buck Williams are not far behind imo. It's very jammed up at this point; I don't feel there is a definitive best pick.

[trex_8063]

Should Mason be in this conversation more?

Arguably so. Paul Millsap maybe deserves to be more in the convo too???
It's awfully close between several candidates.

[penbeast0]

Going Jermaine O'Neal because I am more certain of his impact but willing to switch back to Paul Silas who really impressed me with his impact on team culture (he and Ricky Mahorn but Silas was just a better player so he got a lot more minutes).

Interesting that after all the talk about how shotblocking help bigs who play like centers have more impact, half of the top 6 (and you could argue Draymond fits this mold more despite GS playing him so much at C) are combo forwards who played more SF than center.

[trex_8063]

Going Jermaine O'Neal because I am more certain of his impact but willing to switch back to Paul Silas who really impressed me with his impact on team culture (he and Ricky Mahorn but Silas was just a better player so he got a lot more minutes).

Interesting that after all the talk about how shotblocking help bigs who play like centers have more impact, half of the top 6 (and you could argue Draymond fits this mold more despite GS playing him so much at C) are combo forwards who played more SF than center.

Rick Mahorn.......there's another guy who possibly deserves a pinch of consideration (or at least that mention). Sheesh, so many....

[penbeast0]

Well, traditionally, PF was where you put the offensively challenged banger who rebounded and played defense.

[kendogg]

JO played more C than PF in his career. Did we really establish him as a PF? I don't remember him being on the original list. I'm probably sticking with my vote of Horace Grant.

[trex_8063]

JO played more C than PF in his career. Did we really establish him as a PF? I don't remember him being on the original list. I'm probably sticking with my vote of Horace Grant.

He was a late addition to the list (more like someone originally forgotten). Like Duncan, he's one that could be reasonably placed in either category. It was somewhat on the fly, but we opted to throw him in here with the PF's.

That he played more C than PF is potentially debatable. We do have bbref's play-by-play data for '01-'14 (though as has been discussed in context of evaluating Tim Duncan, their play-by-play isn't always 100% accurate), it lists him as 55% C for those years. But that omits '97-'00: in broad designations '00 (859 minutes) is listed as C as well; '97-'99 (1577 total minutes) are all listed as PF.

If we looked at his career minutes and attribute each season entirely to whichever position bbref has the season designated as, 51.7% of his career minutes were played as PF. And his best 5-year stretch ('02-'06) are all listed as PF (and play-by-play lists that period as 62% PF).

So.....it's debatable, but we've lumped him in with the PF's.

[kendogg]

OK well, JOs is possibly better peak than Horace but I think Horace was more consistent and was on the court more because he didn't have the stamina/injury issues that JO had. JO had a tendency to get in foul trouble because he was gassed and got beat.

So my vote is Horace Grant.

[SkyHookFTW]

Going with Horace Grant here (O'Neal should be a center). 4x All-NBA defense, averaged a shot blocked a game for his career, was a consistent rebounder off the defensive glass, even made an all-start team once. Grant was willing to do the dirty work when needed. He didn't peak as high as a few guys left but he was more consistent--no lows to go with those peaks. Grant was never a guy that hurt his team while on the floor, and he really only fell off a bit after 1999.

My vote goes to Horace Grant.

[HeartBreakKid]

I feel like O'Neal fit the mold more of a real anchor - he was in that power forward, but he kinda fits like a center spot that big Timmy and older Garnett fit. Jermaine was a fantastic athlete and could keep up with smaller players but was a stellar rim protector as well.

My vote goes to Jermaine O'Neal

[trex_8063]

I’m once again going to provide some categorical ranked comparisons of 20 different candidates (well, 20 including those who’ve already been voted in).

The DVOR (Defensive Value Over Replacement) cited below is NOT to be confused with DVORP (as in something derived from the VORP numbers on bbref). DVOR utilizes DRAPM and minutes played, and attempts to illuminate the defensive value above a replacement level player [set at -0.75 DRAPM] per season in best years, per game in best years, per career, as so forth as indicated in headers.
However, DRAPM only exists for ‘97 and after. I utilized rs APM [on/off stat] combined with shutupandjam’s Estimated Impact [a box-derived figure] defensive split to make an “educated estimate” for DRAPM for ‘94-’96. And then I just used straight Estimated Impact defensive split for years prior to ‘94. I know this isn’t ideal or true apples to apples, but I wanted a means to include older players in all these broad categories.
I’ve looked at a lot of these now, and fwiw I get the feeling the EI defensive split will UNDER-estimate more often than over-estimating. I get the feeling it rated Elvin Hayes pretty fairly, but for many of these players (like Dave DeBusschere, Gus Johnson, Dennis Rodman, or Buck Williams as examples), the splits just don’t look quite right. We even have some supportive evidence to suggest this is the case for player whose career span into the RAPM era [e.g. Buck Williams]. I think for several of these guys EI basically just “evens things out”--->marginally over-rating their offensive imprint while UNDER-rating them defensively. Bobby Jones likely underrated in general by the EI metric, at least based on the early 80's on/off numbers he had for Sixers.
Anyway, bear that grain of salt in mind with the following.
Also…..
*All box-derived metrics are excluding the current ‘19 season.
**ALL seasons have been pro-rated to full 82-game season (for both DVOR and DWS).

All-Defensive Honors “Points” (awarding 1.5 pts for each All-D 1st Team, 1.0 for All-D 2nd)
Tim Duncan - 19.0
Kevin Garnett - 16.5
Bobby Jones - 16.0
Dennis Rodman - 11.5
Dave DeBusschere - 9.0 (*not awarded his first six seasons)
Kevin McHale - 7.5
Paul Silas - 6.0
Karl Malone - 5.5
Draymond Green - 5.5
Buck Williams - 5.0
Horace Grant - 4.0
Larry Nance - 3.5
Gus Johnson - 3.0 (*not awarded his first five seasons)
PJ Brown - 3.0
Charles Oakley - 2.5
Elvin Hayes - 2.0
Paul Millsap - 1.0
Rasheed Wallace - 0
Bo Outlaw - 0
Jermaine O'Neal - 0

DPOY shares
Draymond Green - 2.047
Dennis Rodman - 2.038
Kevin Garnett - 1.638
Tim Duncan - 1.025
Bobby Jones - 0.146 (*only awarded his final four seasons)
Kevin McHale - 0.064
Bo Outlaw - 0.051
Buck Williams - 0.043 (*not awarded his rookie year)
Horace Grant - 0.037
Paul Millsap - 0.032
Charles Oakley - 0.030
Larry Nance - 0.026 (*not awarded his rookie year)
Rasheed Wallace - 0.022
Jermaine O'Neal - 0.017
Karl Malone - 0.010
PJ Brown - 0.002
***Not awarded during the careers of DeBusschere, Johnson, Silas, or any except the final two seasons of Hayes

DWS
Tim Duncan - 106.3
Karl Malone - 92.4
Kevin Garnett - 91.5
Elvin Hayes - 83.7
Charles Oakley - 63.3
Buck Williams - 61.8
Rasheed Wallace - 57.1
Dennis Rodman - 54.5
Paul Silas - 51.8
Horace Grant - 49.3
PJ Brown - 48.5
Dave DeBusschere - 48.0
Jermaine O'Neal - 46.1
Larry Nance - 44.6
Bobby Jones - 43.2
Paul Millsap - 39.4
Kevin McHale - 37.1
Bo Outlaw - 29.3
Gus Johnson - 25.4
Draymond Green - 24.5

Career rDRTG
Tim Duncan: -9.5
Dennis Rodman: -7.0
Draymond Green: -7.0
Kevin Garnett: -6.6
Bobby Jones: -5.8
Elvin Hayes: -5.5(*missing his first five seasons)
Jermaine O'Neal: -5.5
Karl Malone: -5.2
Dave DeBusschere: -4.7 (*only available for his final season, though in DD’s case, it’s likely a fairly accurate representation of his career mark)
Rasheed Wallace: -4.5
Charles Oakley: -4.4
Paul Millsap: -4.0
Paul Silas: -3.5 (*only available for his last seven seasons)
Larry Nance: -3.5
PJ Brown: -3.4
Bo Outlaw: -3.4
Buck Williams: -3.3
Horace Grant: -2.0
Kevin McHale: -1.4
**Not available for Gus Johnson’s career

Career DBPM
Tim Duncan: +4.0
Bo Outlaw: +4.0
Draymond Green: +3.8
Kevin Garnett: +3.3
Bobby Jones: +2.9
Dennis Rodman: +2.8
Charles Oakley: +2.3
Larry Nance: +2.3
PJ Brown: +2.3
Paul Millsap: +2.2
Jermaine O'Neal: +2.0
Karl Malone: +1.8
Horace Grant: +1.8
Dave DeBusschere: +1.6 (*only available for his final season, though in DD’s case, it’s likely a fairly accurate representation of his career mark)
Rasheed Wallace: +1.5
Elvin Hayes: +1.3 (*missing his first five seasons)
Paul Silas: +1.3 (*only available his last seven seasons)
Buck Williams: +1.3
Kevin McHale: +0.3
**Not available for Gus Johnson’s career

Career Cumulative DVOR
Kevin Garnett - 197,104.8
Tim Duncan - 179,675.5
Rasheed Wallace - 110,512.8
Elvin Hayes - 102,458.6
Horace Grant - 74,632.9
Jermaine O'Neal - 74,392.5
Bo Outlaw - 72,806.7
Karl Malone - 70,363.5
Charles Oakley - 67,043.8
Buck Williams - 63,293.4
Larry Nance - 56,202.55
PJ Brown - 55,021.8
Dennis Rodman - 50,665.3
Paul Millsap - 50,556.3
Draymond Green - 49,402.7
Bobby Jones - 48,353.1
Dave DeBusschere - 48,191.2
Paul Silas - 43,313.2
Kevin McHale - 28,238.4
Gus Johnson - 21,446.2

Avg DVOR per season (full career)
Tim Duncan - 9,456.6
Kevin Garnett - 9,385.9
Draymond Green - 8,233.8
Rasheed Wallace - 6,950.5
Elvin Hayes - 6,403.7
Bo Outlaw - 4,853.8 (NOTE: his avg is hurt by lingering multiple seasons while barely playing)
Horace Grant - 4,390.2
Larry Nance - 4,323.3
Paul Millsap - 4,213.0
Jermaine O'Neal - 4,132.9
Bobby Jones - 4,029.4
Dave DeBusschere - 4,015.9
PJ Brown - 3,821.0
Dennis Rodman - 3,808.7
Buck Williams - 3,723.1
Charles Oakley - 3,704.1
Karl Malone - 3,703.3
Paul Silas - 2,707.1
Kevin McHale - 2,172.2
Gus Johnson - 2,144.6

Avg DVOR per season in Best 5 Years
Kevin Garnett - 14,732.0
Tim Duncan - 12,925.1
Rasheed Wallace - 11,628.5
Bo Outlaw - 10,040.2
Draymond Green - 9,721.4
Elvin Hayes - 9,327.8
Jermaine O'Neal - 8,415.9
Horace Grant - 7,394.9
PJ Brown - 7,200.45
Paul Millsap - 6,396.0
Karl Malone - 6,376.6
Charles Oakley - 6,284.0
Larry Nance - 6,208.4
Dennis Rodman - 5,978.6
Dave DeBusschere - 5,755.6
Buck Williams - 5,612.8
Bobby Jones - 5,347.15
Paul Silas - 4,603.9
Gus Johnson - 3,575.95
Kevin McHale - 3,562.7

Avg DVOR per game in Best 5 years (this category neutralizes any “bias” based on missed games)
Kevin Garnett - 190.3
Tim Duncan - 170.5
Rasheed Wallace - 151.6
Bo Outlaw - 132.5
Draymond Green - 125.3
Jermaine O'Neal - 123.8
Elvin Hayes - 114.6
PJ Brown - 98.9
Horace Grant - 97.3
Paul Millsap - 84.2
Dennis Rodman - 81.0
Larry Nance - 78.6
Karl Malone - 78.1
Charles Oakley - 77.4
Dave DeBusschere - 74.2
Buck Williams - 68.8
Bobby Jones - 67.5
Paul Silas - 57.0
Gus Johnson - 53.7
Kevin McHale - 45.6

Peak season DVOR
Tim Duncan - 16,346.1
Kevin Garnett - 15,993.45
Draymond Green - 15,022.8
Rasheed Wallace - 14,623.3
Bo Outlaw - 13,095.4
Elvin Hayes - 11,954.25
Jermaine O'Neal - 10,176.2
PJ Brown - 9,771.8
Horace Grant - 9,670.35
Karl Malone - 8,488.95
Larry Nance - 8,304.9
Dennis Rodman - 7,757.35
Paul Millsap - 7,684.75
Bobby Jones - 7,619.85
Charles Oakley - 6,882.5
Dave DeBusschere - 6,436.15
Buck Williams - 6,366.15
Paul Silas - 5,890.5
Gus Johnson - 5,108.25
Kevin McHale - 4,081.0

[trex_8063]

I was watching some of the games SinceGatlingWasARookie posted in the last thread to review Horace Grant, Larry Nance, and Buck Williams (noting the one game was actually prior to Grant's prime). I still come away most impressed with Horace Grant on that end. He's so active, timely and aggressive on his rotations (showing a high defensive IQ in what is only his 2nd season in that clip).

He ranks competitively in the aggregates I presently in my last post. If you want to look at DRAPM, we're missing most of his prime; yet he is still pretty impressive considering it's largely late-prime or post-prime years we're looking at (and while playing big minutes many of those years--->he's got nearly 39k total rs minutes): +2.52, +2.7, +2.2, +1.19, +0.3, +1.0, +1.1, -0.1.....those are his DRAPM splits for '97-'04.

He ranked 20th in the league in rs APM in '94, 11th in the league in '95, 10th in the league in '96......unless we assume he's a MUCH better offensive player than he's ever given credit for, it's safe to assume some pretty strong defensive splits in those years, too.

It's all very very close, but I've made my decision: voting for Horace Grant.

[penbeast0]

I was watching some of the games SinceGatlingWasARookie posted in the last thread to review Horace Grant, Larry Nance, and Buck Williams (noting the one game was actually prior to Grant's prime). I still come away most impressed with Horace Grant on that end. He's so active, timely and aggressive on his rotations (showing a high defensive IQ in what is only his 2nd season in that clip).

He ranks competitively in the aggregates I presently in my last post. If you want to look at DRAPM, we're missing most of his prime; yet he is still pretty impressive considering it's largely late-prime or post-prime years we're looking at (and while playing big minutes many of those years--->he's got nearly 39k total rs minutes): +2.52, +2.7, +2.2, +1.19, +0.3, +1.0, +1.1, -0.1.....those are his DRAPM splits for '97-'04.

He ranked 20th in the league in rs APM in '94, 11th in the league in '95, 10th in the league in '96......unless we assume he's a MUCH better offensive player than he's ever given credit for, it's safe to assume some pretty strong defensive splits in those years, too.

It's all very very close, but I've made my decision: voting for Horace Grant.

To be fair, he's a much better offensive player than most give him credit for. His scoring volume isn't high but he's extremely efficient and tends to have a very good A/T ratio, both things that correlate well with offensive play for a 3rd-5th option player. To be fair, though neither are as good at passing, Nance's ability to finish in traffic and to a lesser extent Buck's post game make them very solid offensive players too.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

JO played more C than PF in his career. Did we really establish him as a PF? I don't remember him being on the original list. I'm probably sticking with my vote of Horace Grant.

At Jermaine O'Neal's peak he started at power forward but he played half of his minutes at center. In the playoffs he played more center. Brad Miller, Scott Pollard, Jeff Foster, and David Harrison left a lot of center minutes for JO. Post peak JO played even more Center. JO is like a more extreme version of the Duncan situation.

My problem with Grant is he never really popped out at me. He was better than the rest of the crowd but he still seemed like part of the crowd.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Vote Nance
In a JO vs Grant runoff vote Is for Grant
JO played too much center. Nance may have played too much small forward.

Caldwell Jones was very very good.
Buck Williams might have been a reasonable choice.
Outlaw might be a reasonable choice. Outlaw missed a lot of games to injury.

I feel comfortable putting Grant above AC Green. Young Grant is similar enough to Green to make the comparison easy.
I feel comfortable putting Grant above Silas, and Mason.

Oakley and Mahorn brought nasty toughness. Oakley was a great rebounder. I respected Mahorn. I don't their their defense was good enough for the 10th spot n this list.

Caldwell Jones is more like JO.
Nance is different. Nance has reach and speed. I am not sure that Nances efffort was consistent but I love his athleticism.

Gus Johnson is a legend but I never saw him. I am not being fair to him.
Actually I must have seen Gus Johnson vs Oscar and Kareem in the 1971 finals. I guess I forgot him.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Gus Johnson's 1971 NBA finals. Gus has 2 bad knees so this still is not fair. I'ts all the game film I can find.

Watch on YouTube

[Dr Positivity]

Vote Jermaine O'Neal. He has the best DRAPM data supporting him of these options, good mix of shot blocking and perimeter athleticism, and had steam results

For PF vs C, he is listed at 9 seasons for each on basketball reference, plus his two lowest GP seasons (24/25 games in Boston) are at C. If it's that close I would rather go with where his prime seasons were which is PF.