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Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#521 » by dckingsfan » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:47 pm

LedZepp007 wrote:I would do Middleton, Thon, etc., for Wall, etc.

Could be a possibility since we "should" be out of the playoff picture soon. And Wall always seems to play better during the playoffs.

Wall for Middleton and Maker works. Especially with your first (top 20 protected).

We could then package Ariza and or Morris for further cap reduction.

For us, it would mean building around Porter/Beal/Brown. With the notion of some of Bryant, Dekker, Sato coming back. And the notion of moving Mahinmi next season and not stretching him. Plus having 3 picks in the next two seasons.

Hopefully this would coincide with Ted acknowledging that the EG/Brooks time needs to come to an end.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#522 » by nate33 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:54 pm

Eli Babak wrote:I want to trade Wall for a bag of chips and build around Beal/Porter but I tried something different for fun... :D

Wall + Howard
for
Anderson + Bender + MIL 1st (very likely 2020)

Wall/Melton/Okobo
Booker/Crawford/Daniels
Bridges/Oubre
Warren/Jackson
Ayton/Holmes/Howard

---

Morris + Green for Muscala + Korkmaz

Simmons/McConnell/Fultz
Redick/Shamet/Smith
Butler/Green
Chandler/Morris/Bolden
Embiid/Johnson/Patton

---

Ariza + Dekker for Hill + Johnson + top-3 protected 2019 1st
(separate trades but Wiz have a TPE to make Dekker for Johnson work, right?)

Payton/Frazier/Jackson
Holiday/Moore/Clark
Ariza/Miller
Mirotic/Dekker/Diallo
Davis/Randle/Okafor

---

Porter for Randolph + McLemore + Labissiere + 2019 2nd (best they have)/2020 2nd (best of DET/MIA/SAC)/2021 2nd (best of MIA/MEM/SAC)

Fox/Mason/Ferrell
Hield/Bogdanovic
Porter/Shumpert/Jackson
Bjelica/Bagley
WCS/Koufos/Giles

---

Beal for KCP + Ball + Beasley + 2019 1st + 2022 2nd

Rondo/Bonga
Beal/Hart/Mykhailiuk
Ingram/Stephenson
LeBron/Kuzma/Wagner
McGee/Chandler/Zubac

---

Ball/Satoransky/Randle
KCP/Korkmaz/Baker
Hill/Brown/Johnson
Anderson/Labissiere/Bender
Bryant/Muscala/Mahinmi

Randolph bought out
Beasley bought out
McLemore bought out

Total salary
115 070 156 + Randle + Baker

---

Picks we'd have
2019: WAS 1st, LAL 1st, NOP 1st, 1 2nd
2020: WAS 1st, MIL 1st, 1 2nd
2021: WAS 1st, 1 2nd
2022: WAS 1st, 1 2nd
And in 2023 we'd finally have our own 1st & 2nd round picks :noway:

---

Summer of 2019:
Ball

Brown/Hill
Anderson/Labissiere
Mahinmi
+ re-sign Satoransky (3y/27M, 10-9-8M) and Bryant (3y/10M with team options, 2.5-3.5-4M)
= 71 086 479
+ WAS 1st, LAL 1st, NOP 1st, 1 2nd
= 12 players (unless "draft and stash")
+ maybe some of KCP, Korkmaz, Bender, Muscala?

Fire Brooks and hire some (young) new face in the NBA. Tank hard for another year and have crazy amount of cap space in 2020 with great young players (Ball/Brown/Bryant/drafted players + Sato + Labissiere? Bender? Korkmaz?).

Then trade a 2nd round pick for a bust, sign 3 UDFAs and 3 bigs...

Edit: Please don't take this too seriously but I guess anything would be better than what Ernie & Ted are doing right now.

The Wall trade is good.

I'd prefer the Morris to Philly trade to exclude Green and Korkmaz. Green seems like a good dude and a rebuilding team needs some vets to keep it real. I don't see a need to unload him unless we get a 2nd round pick in return. I'd like to keep him next year if it could be done relatively cheaply.

The Porter to SAC for cap relief and 2nd rounders seems fair. I'm not dying to do it because, with Wall gone, we're already out of any luxtax worries. I don't see what is gained by dumping a good player like Porter for more cap relief. It's not like we'll get a better guy with that cap money since nobody wants to play here. I'd hold out for a 1st round pick in any Porter trade. If nobody bites, so be it. I'll happily keep Porter.

I like the Ariza to New Orleans idea, but the return is terrible. We are absorbing a whopping $13M in salary next year, plus we're taking back more than we're giving in the trade this year. And Ariza is way better than Chandler. All that salary and talent differential is worth way more than a late 1st round pick. Also, we don't have a TPE large enough to absorb Chandler so the trade doesn't work. You can't package a TPE with another player and have the salaries be cumulative.

The Beal trade is horrible. You are dumping him for Ball, who has been pretty bad so far in his career and a very late 1st round pick that is probably less attractive that a high 2nd round pick due to the salary obligations. Somebody will pay more than that for Beal.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#523 » by Eli Babak » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:04 pm

nate33 wrote:The Beal trade is horrible. You are dumping him for Ball, who has been pretty bad so far in his career and a very late 1st round pick that is probably less attractive that a high 2nd round pick due to the salary obligations. Somebody will pay more than that for Beal.


I agree, we should absolutely get Hart or Ingram and probably another 1st (I'm probably overvaluing their youngsters, Beal is legit allstar and team's MVP after all). At that point I wasn't thinking clearly. :P

Oh well. It really is going to be interesting what happens in these next ~40 days.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#524 » by nate33 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:22 pm

Piggybacking off of Eli Babak's Ariza to New Orleans idea, how about this:

Washington trades: Trevor Ariza, Ian Mahinmi*
New Orleans trades: Elfrid Payton, Wesley Johnson, Frank Jackson, Solomon Hill

The trade saves us $8.2M this year, and with the extra bodies we add, we can cut Baker and Randle and save another $1.8M. It also turns Mahinmi's $15.4M salary next year into Hill's $13.2M salary, giving us a bit more breathing room to retain Sato and others.

* Technically, the Mahinmi for Hill deal is a separate trade to circumvent the restriction on packaging Ariza with other players.

All of our luxtax problems are solved. We take a flyer on Payton (once he recovers from his hand injury), and we shed some salary next year as well. New Orleans gets the small forward they need without giving up a core player or a pick. They have just enough luxtax room to pull it off without dipping into luxtax territory.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#525 » by payitforward » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:29 am

"...I guess anything would be better than what Ernie & Ted are doing right now." That's the high order bit.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#526 » by gambitx777 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:47 am

Look there are two things we need to do dog out of this while. Which I see as moving wall, mahinmi or both. And then decide if we wanna start a rebuild which would include trading Beal, and Otto. Or giving the keys to Beal and trying to rebuild this team in hopes that what ever you get from wall and mahinmi and a new plan can get you further than wall Beal otto did. Eg can be here for the first part itS litterally something we need to do regardless. I don't think he should be allowed to make move any further than that . Kelley was gonna get over paid so I'm cool with loosing him. But once wall gets moved eg needa gone. Unless he gets gone before. He should not helm another free agency or draft .
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#527 » by payitforward » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:01 am

Eli Babak wrote:
nate33 wrote:The Beal trade is horrible. You are dumping him for Ball, who has been pretty bad so far in his career and a very late 1st round pick that is probably less attractive that a high 2nd round pick due to the salary obligations. Somebody will pay more than that for Beal.

I agree, we should absolutely get Hart or Ingram and probably another 1st (I'm probably overvaluing their youngsters, Beal is legit allstar and team's MVP after all). At that point I wasn't thinking clearly. :P...

Well, I've been vocal in liking Hart, but I don't agree that Ball "has been pretty bad so far." In fact, I'd say he's been pretty good so far. :) Not great to be sure -- but good.

It would make more sense for him to be traded for Wall than Beal, of course. @, he's having a better season than John Wall, plus he was better than John last year as well. Certainly he was better than Wall's first 2 seasons. John scores more & at a higher TS%. Plus he gets more assists as well. But, Ball gets his team @5.6 extra possessions per 40 minutes compared to Wall (b/c of the rebounding, steals & turnover totals of the 2 players). & he uses 10+ fewer possessions as well. I'd much rather have the almost 16 extra possessions on offense than the 12 extra points Wall contributes in their place.

That said, I'd still prefer Hart. As a #2 pick, Ball makes big $$ towards the end of his rookie contract. He might be worth it, but Josh Hart is unquestionably a bargain at his rookie contract numbers, & to build a good team you have to have players who are more productive than their salaries.

&, of course, getting a good young 2 back as part of a Beal trade helps w/ the next step as well.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#528 » by Induveca » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:20 pm

Hart reminds me of a smaller Otto Porter when I watch him play. He can be a middling shooter/glue guy but the effort/energy/consistency just isn’t there to become more.

But at his salary sure no complaints. He won’t make you cringe unlike Porter who has become a major financial burden.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#529 » by Ruzious » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Induveca wrote:Hart reminds me of a smaller Otto Porter when I watch him play. He can be a middling shooter/glue guy but the effort/energy/consistency just isn’t there to become more.

But at his salary sure no complaints. He won’t make you cringe unlike Porter who has become a major financial burden.

You're both wrong. :D Actually, Indy's conclusion is reasonable, but Hart is a player who doesn't lack any intangibles - his effort/energy/consistency is/are perfectly fine - as they were when he led Villanova to a National Championship - and he was easily the best player on that team. What he lacks is great athleticism and the ability to create his own shot and shots for others. I would have loved to get him, but PIF keeps lauding him likes he's a developing superstar, and he simply doesn't have that kind of ability. And he'll be 24 in March, so he's not a kid. He's less than 2 years younger than Otto. Ball is obviously (imo) a better talent than Hart.

Otto is a bit over-paid, but a healthy Otto is a very valuable player. Brooklyn signed him to the contract that the Wiz matched, so it's not like Otto wasn't very highly thought of around the NBA. I think the Wiz made the right decision in matching. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Now, if the Wiz medical reports showed these health issues, that's another story - and there was a report about a chronic hip issues, so I don't know.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#530 » by dckingsfan » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:57 pm

Induveca wrote:Hart reminds me of a smaller Otto Porter when I watch him play. He can be a middling shooter/glue guy but the effort/energy/consistency just isn’t there to become more.

But at his salary sure no complaints. He won’t make you cringe unlike Porter who has become a major financial burden.

I like Otto, especially his cringe :D
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#531 » by payitforward » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:55 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Induveca wrote:Hart reminds me of a smaller Otto Porter when I watch him play. He can be a middling shooter/glue guy but the effort/energy/consistency just isn’t there to become more.

But at his salary sure no complaints. He won’t make you cringe unlike Porter who has become a major financial burden.

You're both wrong. :D Actually, Indy's conclusion is reasonable, but Hart is a player who doesn't lack any intangibles - his effort/energy/consistency is/are perfectly fine - as they were when he led Villanova to a National Championship - and he was easily the best player on that team. What he lacks is great athleticism and the ability to create his own shot and shots for others. I would have loved to get him, but PIF keeps lauding him likes he's a developing superstar, and he simply doesn't have that kind of ability. And he'll be 24 in March, so he's not a kid. He's less than 2 years younger than Otto. Ball is obviously (imo) a better talent than Hart.

Otto is a bit over-paid, but a healthy Otto is a very valuable player. Brooklyn signed him to the contract that the Wiz matched, so it's not like Otto wasn't very highly thought of around the NBA. I think the Wiz made the right decision in matching. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Now, if the Wiz medical reports showed these health issues, that's another story - and there was a report about a chronic hip issues, so I don't know.

Since I agree point by point with what you write here, Ruz, I'm not sure what I'm "wrong" about. But if I am, I won't have any trouble admitting it. :)

You are right: Hart is certainly not "a developing superstar." If something I said seemed to indicate I thought he was, then I expressed myself badly. Sorry.

What he is, however, is a solid NBA guard whose overall production is already well above average in only his second year. Because he is under contract through 21-22 at a total cost of $12.4m, he is an incredible bargain -- esp. given his current level of production in only his 2d year. & I hope you'll agree that Josh Hart does have some upside, room for more development.

Now, Lonzo Ball is also under contract through '21-22 -- but the total cost of his contract is $41.5m, & it rises in a hurry (last two years are over $25m vs. @$8m in Hart's case). As I said, he's been pretty good (& right on cue, he blew up last night vs. Sac'to). You are certainly correct that he has much more upside than Hart -- but he's not the bargain Hart is, obviously.

Especially not, btw, if you consider their costs compared to absolute minimum. You have to field 14 guys, & $1.5m @ the minimum for a body on your roster in your uniform. Thus, over 4 years Hart costs $6.5m over the minimum you'd have to spend. Whereas Ball costs @ $35m over that minimum.

Hart is especially valuable, because (as I wrote in a previous post) for your team to be really good in a sport with a salary cap, you must have players whose production is a bargain for how much they're paid. Hart is that in spades. Ball is a bigger talent with a bigger potential upside. But, he's also a bigger risk.

Make sense?

Of course I'd love to have them both!
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#532 » by Dark Faze » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:13 am

Bos in: Bradley Beal
Bos out: Hayward, highest two first rounders they own in 19.

Why for Boston: Boston replaces the question mark of Hayward with Beal who provides a better fit and they don't have to worry about being a 30 million a year anchor on the books for the next three seasons. Boston still has picks to play around with in trades or to infuse young talent.

Utah in: Hayward
Utah out: Favors, Rubio, Jazz 2019 first (top 2 protection).

Why for Utah: Two guys easily replaced for a guy who's likely to get right eventually in Hayward and has already flourished in the system. Protection on this pick is incredibly tricky, but most forecasts don't put the jazz as being bad enough to have a realistic shot at jumping into the top 3, either through lottery odds at staying at 9 or through ELO/Carmelo as putting them outside the lottery entirely.

Wiz in: Rubio, Favors, Jazz 19 (top 2 protected), highest two owned Celtics picks.
Wiz out: Beal.

Reason for the wiz is obvious--escape the tax and get started on the rebuild. In regards to the quality of the haul--really depends on the luck of the draw. Right now Elo predicts the haul would be us getting #13, 15, and 17 first rounders in the upcoming draft. I don't know if I'd call it an underpay or an overpay. I'd say its fair value. With Brad gone, this team would have a great chance at improving the lottery odds for our own pick.

From there, maybe something like Porter for Batum and Charlotte's first (predicted pick #14).

End up with picks 13, 14, 15, and 17, and our own pick (top 6).

Can't imagine Wall's reaction, but unless he wants to live in basketball hell to end his career, he should be highly motivated to play well enough to be traded, and he can get all the possessions and shots he wants to achieve this.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#533 » by Eli Babak » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:26 am

I don't think Utah wants anything to do with Hayward again and he's negative value right now. If they were trading their 1st they'd be looking at upgrading PG position.

But getting 3 picks, a good big and a playmaker for Beal? Not bad as long as we nail the draft (imagine Ernie with all those picks :lol:). I would not trade Porter for Batum+1st unless that pick somehow helped us getting a terrific player.

We could probably trade #17 + Mahinmi for a late 2nd/cap space (if luxtax becomes issue) and build around

Wall/Rubio
x
Satoransky/Brown
Porter
Bryant/Favors
+ #13, #15 + our pick
- assuming retaining Rubio/Sato/Bryant/Favors (not paying him 16.9M) don't cost too much and Howard leaves
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#534 » by dckingsfan » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:15 pm

So, given that we are almost toast for the season. I would think that any of the following would be available for lesser expiring contracts and/or assets?

Code: Select all

Trevor Ariza      $15,000,000
Markieff Morris    $8,600,000
Tomas Satoransky   $3,129,187
Sam Dekker         $2,760,095
Jeff Green         $2,393,887
                  $31,883,169


The question is which contenders would want those players and would be willing to give up lesser contracts or assets?

I like Dark Faze's approach as well. I think Beal is the only one you can trade right now (given the Porter/Wall injuries).

Lakers; Ariza, Morris, Dekker or Green?
Sacramento; Ariza or Dekker?
San Antonio; Satoransky
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#535 » by DCZards » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:15 pm

dckingsfan wrote:So, given that we are almost toast for the season. I would think that any of the following would be available for lesser expiring contracts and/or assets?

Code: Select all

Trevor Ariza      $15,000,000
Markieff Morris    $8,600,000
Tomas Satoransky   $3,129,187
Sam Dekker         $2,760,095
Jeff Green         $2,393,887
                  $31,883,169


The question is which contenders would want those players and would be willing to give up lesser contracts or assets?

I like Dark Faze's approach as well. I think Beal is the only one you can trade right now (given the Porter/Wall injuries).

Lakers; Ariza, Morris, Dekker or Green?
Sacramento; Ariza or Dekker?
San Antonio; Satoransky


If I thought I could resign them at (or near) what they're making this year, I'd keep Dekker and Green around as role players off the bench. Dekker is young guy with good size and length who plays hard and smart...and has some upside. Green is a solid vet having a very good season. Jeff also has some of the leadership qualities that the Zards desperately need both on and off the court.

Maybe most importantly, both Dekker and Green would both be reasonable contracts for a franchise trying to get under the lux tax.

Of course, I'd also like to keep Sato around as a bench player and occasional starter when necessary. While you're probably looking at a salary increase for Tomas, I wouldn't expect him to cost more than $6-$8 mil a year. Sato is a good all-around player but I think we're seeing that he's not a starting quality PG or SG. Too many limitations on the offensive end.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#536 » by Pillendreher » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:18 pm

Give Sam Presti a call. I'm sure we can work out something concerning Porter. ;)
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#537 » by payitforward » Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:06 pm

DCZards wrote:If I thought I could resign them at (or near) what they're making this year, I'd keep Dekker and Green around.... Of course, I'd also like to keep Sato around.... I wouldn't expect him to cost more than $6-$8 mil a year.

Absolutely! & we will be able to sign the first two to those "at (or near)" contracts. Jeff has been a pleasant surprise, though his numbers are starting to go down. Even so, he's well worth a veteran minimum deal, & if he's comfortable being here then for sure let's sign him to another one next year. I don't think Dekker will attract a big offer. He's only played 2600 minutes in his 4 seasons -- about half what Oubre has played, for example.

I'd be surprised if the 3 together were to cost more than $15m. They are good value at that much $$.

Of course, we should sew up Thomas Bryant -- should be working on that right now. If he gets @ what Troy will get next year, that puts us at almost $130m for 9 guys. If we have the #5 pick in the draft, our R1 pick will cost @$6.5m.

It's going to be almost impossible to stay under the luxury tax next year w/o trading one of Wall/Beal/Porter....
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#538 » by queridiculo » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:03 am

payitforward wrote:It's going to be almost impossible to stay under the luxury tax next year w/o trading one of Wall/Beal/Porter....


Stretching Mahinmi lops $10 million of the cap instantly, and while it pushes dead money into the future, it'll give the team some flexibility going forward.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#539 » by payitforward » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:57 am

queridiculo wrote:
payitforward wrote:It's going to be almost impossible to stay under the luxury tax next year w/o trading one of Wall/Beal/Porter....

Stretching Mahinmi lops $10 million of the cap instantly, and while it pushes dead money into the future, it'll give the team some flexibility going forward.

If we did so, then based on my assumptions above we would be at $126m for 9 guys. I believe the tax line is projected to be @ $133m.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#540 » by dangermouse » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:45 am

We're boned now that Wall is out. Gone from a 2% chance of working out a trade to a 0% chance.

We'd be mad to trade Beal. He is becoming one of the best guards in the L. The only way we can move mahinmi is attaching a first. Theres no way I give up this years. A future first could be risky, but we need to re-sign Bryant unless we luck out in the draft and get Bol Bol or get Zion?

Our options moving forward to field a winning team next year seem to be slipping away further every week.
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NatP4 wrote:but why would the pacers want Mahinmi's contract


Well, in fairness, we took Mike Pence off their hands. Taking back Mahinmi is the least they can do.

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