2019 NBA Draft Prep

[King Ken]

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I really like this class but its reminds me of the Prince class. Where there is going to a lot of wait and see going on. Glad we had three 1sts in 2018

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[CP War Hawks]

Culver actually reminds me alot of Josh Howard who I liked and wanted over Diaw

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[Jamaaliver]

A project player to consider for the Mavs selection:

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[Jamaaliver]

After seeing top recruits overshadowed at Duke by other, higher profile freshman players, I wonder if players will begin bypassing playing for the Blue Devils?

Cam Reddish Is Duke’s (and the Draft’s) Biggest Enigma

It’s been a brutal adjustment period for the Blue Devils’ third star freshman, but come June, it might not matter. He is still a model of what lies ahead for the 3-and-D swingman archetype



Not much has gone right for Cam Reddish in his first few months at Duke. He has struggled to adjust to a smaller role behind fellow freshmen R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson, averaging 13.5 points on 37.0 percent shooting, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game, which has heightened the concerns NBA scouts already had about his motor and tendency to disappear in games. However, for all his flaws, he may still end up being a top-five pick. NBA teams used to reach for athletic big men at the top of the draft. Now they reach for wings with size and shooting ability. Body of work matters, but not as much as having the ideal skill set for the NBA’s most important position.

Reddish is still figuring out how to play off the ball. There’s a big adjustment process for a player who has spent his entire life with the ball in his hands. It’s easy to get out of rhythm when you aren’t involved in the offense for huge stretches of the game. Reddish alternates between doing too much, forcing the action and driving into traffic without a plan, and too little, becoming a passive observer who swings the ball around the perimeter without looking to create. He seems to lose confidence when his shot isn’t falling, and it’s not falling that often. He’s shooting 35.6 percent from 3 and 39.2 percent from 2.

His lack of efficiency is a bigger red flag than his limited production.

The most encouraging part of his performance is his outside shooting. He’s probably a better 3-point shooter than his average percentage (35.6) indicates.

Few players at the next level, regardless of experience, possess his two-way potential. There are only four players 6-foot-8 or taller this season shooting at least 35 percent from 3 on more than five attempts per game with a steal rate higher than 2 percent: Paul George, Joe Ingles, Trevor Ariza, and Robert Covington. Reddish fits the profile of the type of player who could be better in the NBA than he was in college.

Players with his skill set will only become more valuable. The number of 3s that NBA teams take per game has skyrocketed, and it doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Your best scorers need to be volume 3-point shooters for that to work. Reddish could be the rare volume 3-point shooter who doubles as an elite defender, and there is only a handful of those players in the world. It’s hard to pass up on them in the draft, no matter how much they struggle in college.

The Ringer

[King Ken]

If we can't land Zion, I would love Reddish and Culver with our pick and Dallas.

Reddish has the length, size and ability to play the 3 as effective as the 2. We need another 3 and D wing to go with Kevin. Considering Trae should improve his playmaking next year, I can see him being an excellent fit next year. We need as many true 3&D players as possible.

5) Stats Mirror 4: Cam Reddish and Klay Thompson.



It’s strange that people have come around on Reddish’s total lack of burst athleticism and yet still claim he’s not assertive enough. He’s shooting 22 true shooting attempts per 40, an insanely high number for any player, let alone a freshman. How much more assertive do you want him to be?

In other words, and as I’ve said before, he doesn’t attack the basket more aggressively and more effectively because he simply isn’t blessed with the athleticism to do so. What he is blessed with is a jumper, the ability to find shots from distance and incredible length. Indeed, the only two major college players to get 3s off like Cam are Marshall Henderson and Trae Young, and I believe the only guy to get 12+ 3-point attempts per 40 with 3 steals per 40 is Stephen Curry.

And it’s not just context that allows him to do so. Or if it is, you’d figure there’d be another 6-foot-4 + shooter to have done so in the past, since plenty have been on loaded teams as 2nd or 3rd options and with the green light to shoot whenever open to include Kyle Korver, Doug McDermott, JJ Redick, Shane Battier, Shan Foster, Buddy Hield, Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton (he shot threes in college),Paul Pierce, Vince Carter and Klay Thompson, or whoever you want to name. None of them did this. So the ability to get shots up, even if it doesn’t seem like Reddish is doing anything all that special likely does have quite a bit to do with Reddish’s abilities, as most of these other players max out around 9-10 3-point attempts per 40.

All this is to say, Reddish’s avenue to being a high value player is as a 3&D player who breaks the mold, since it’s possible he’ll add volume shooting (ala Klay) to the defensive package. And his defensive skills are potentially much better than pretty much any player considered an elite 3-point threat in the NBA. That’s not just in the NBA now. That’s in NBA history, including Klay, since Reddish has much better defensive size, defensive athleticism (sliding athleticism on D is more than sufficient) and length.

Now consider I’m talking about potential, which is quite a bit different than actuality (i.e. Klay is currently a much better defender than Reddish and Reddish would have to improve a lot to overtake him) and also only talking about the elite or potentially elite shooters. So Kawhi, who was the best 3&D player ever before stepping up to offensive focal point, isn’t involved in the conversation because his 3-point jumper is somewhat less than elite. I’m not talking about the best player of this type, but the best defender who also happens to potentially be an elite 3-point shooter. Reddish could be that.

If you want some sense as to how much that could be worth, watch either the 2016 Golden State-Portland playoff series when Steph was hurt and the Warriors redesigned its offense on the fly around Klay’s jump shot while Klay also disrupted Lillard in multiple games, or the 2013 Finals between Miami and San Antonio in which Danny Green went crazy and Miami simply couldn’t defend him and had to pray for him to miss shots, which he eventually did, in order to win the series.

There’s a lot of potential value in this type of player if the coach understands who he is and puts him in the right scheme. The problem, for a player like Reddish, is that people may expect him to be something he’s not and fail to put him into that context.

Other statistical contenders: Marshall Henderson, Steph Curry, Ray Allen, Danny Green, Shane Battier, Kyle Korver.

Culver:

7) Stats Mirror 6: Jarrett Culver and Steve Smith/Grant Hill



I recently wrote about Culver https://www.thestepien.com/2018/12/03/draft-notes-thing-jarrett-culver/. His current numbers are fairly unique so there’s no perfect mirror for him. Smith and Hill are the two closest, though Culver doesn’t seem in the same ballpark as Hill as a prospect unless he truly is growing. Hassell is probably the closest guy numbers wise besides these two. If you look at the comparables below, it becomes apparent how important that jump shot is for success in translation, with Hassell and Turner never being able to recreate their college success. And Culver’s jumper is definitely still a question to some extent.

[atlantabbq99]

^With the new rules, the Hawks just need to get into the top 4 in the lottery.

I have the ranking as...

1. Cam
2. Bol
3. Zion

but the gap between the three is not that much.

I'm not a fan of Barrett and think he is a future bust, but he still has a lot of hype on him and could be good trade bait if the Hawks end up with him with the 4th pick.

[macd-gm]

^With the new rules, the Hawks just need to get into the top 4 in the lottery.

I have the ranking as...

1. Cam
2. Bol
3. Zion

but the gap between the three is not that much.

I'm not a fan of Barrett and think he is a future bust, but he still has a lot of hype on him and could be good trade bait if the Hawks end up with him with the 4th pick.

I don't know anything but is it worth using a #2 pick on a guy like Bol? I always want a dynamic scorer playmaker in the top5.

[tbhawksfan1]

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I really like this class but its reminds me of the Prince class. Where there is going to a lot of wait and see going on. Glad we had three 1sts in 2018

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We actually had 4 picks. 2018 was a very nice draft. Too bad that TS didn't think so

[Jamaaliver]

We actually had 4 picks. 2018 was a very nice draft. Too bad that TS didn't think so

He did think so. That's why we kept all 3 1st round draft picks.

He likely realized that any 2nd rounder this year would be at a disadvantage when it comes to PT and development. With 4 recent first round picks plus (at the time) a possible 3 first round draft picks in 2019 + Taurean and Bembry still on rookie scale contracts, it would have been very unlikely a 2nd round draftee this season would have played...at all.

(Just look at how sparingly Ty Dorsey has played this year.)

So he turned that 1 selection into multiple selections that he can use in future trade.


It's...kinda brilliant.

[atlantabbq99]

^With the new rules, the Hawks just need to get into the top 4 in the lottery.

I have the ranking as...

1. Cam
2. Bol
3. Zion

but the gap between the three is not that much.

I'm not a fan of Barrett and think he is a future bust, but he still has a lot of hype on him and could be good trade bait if the Hawks end up with him with the 4th pick.

I don't know anything but is it worth using a #2 pick on a guy like Bol? I always want a dynamic scorer playmaker in the top5.

I like Bol, I think he is a unicorn, up their with Gasol, Porziņģis, or Jaren Jackson last year.

[tbhawksfan1]

Jamaal, he traded out of a strong draft. He didn't keep all 3 because he traded the best one. He traded a high SRP for two very likely mid SRP in the future.

You don't think that we could have kept the more valuable SRP and taken M Robinson? I woulda and he woulda got minutes on this team.

Doncic / Heurter / Okobo / Robinson is a very nice draft

TS is not brilliant. If you can't see it yet, you will.

[Jamaaliver]

Doncic / Heurter / Okobo / Robinson is a very nice draft

that WOULD HAVE BEEN A NICE COLLECTION OF TALENT. but IT'S NOT THE DIRECTION WE'RE BUILDING towards.

We're focused on shooting and spacing and offensive efficiency.



Disliking a decision is very different than a decision outright being bad.

I know it's difficult to distinguish between the two.

But if we end up with 2 top-10 selections next summer...that's a solid consolation.

[tbhawksfan1]

Doncic / Heurter / Okobo / Robinson is a very nice draft

that WOULD HAVE BEEN A NICE COLLECTION OF TALENT. but IT'S NOT THE DIRECTION WE'RE BUILDING towards.

Right, I forgot Atlanta State Warriors. Already got Curry and Klay

We're focused on shooting and spacing and offensive efficiency.



Disliking a decision is very different than a decision outright being bad.

Good and bad are both subjective. time will tell as it has been since the start of the season

I know it's difficult to distinguish between the two.

But if we end up with 2 top-10 selections next summer...that's a solid consolation.

You seem a bit opptimistic about that DAL pick. Crystal ball? Long way from where the pick is now to top 10. Hope so

[Jamaaliver]

You seem a bit opptimistic about that DAL pick. Crystal ball? Long way from where the pick is now to top 10. Hope so

Long way? If Dallas loses tonight that pick will be slotted at #10 by tomorrow morning.

[tbhawksfan1]

You seem a bit opptimistic about that DAL pick. Crystal ball? Long way from where the pick is now to top 10. Hope so

Long way? If Dallas loses tonight that pick will be slotted at #10 by tomorrow morning.

Yeah, looking much better. I forgot to account for the two EC teams with worse record but PO seed.

Don't take me wrong, Hawks fan from way back and only Hawksfan. I'm tired of bad GM's giving me constant regrets for so long and if I think the present one is messing up, I'll let ya'll know. Unless you have a true super star, GM is the most important player on the team. Owner gets more important when you need to go into the lux tax. We'll see

[King Ken]

What do you guys think about Naz Little and his fit in our system fellas?

[King Ken]

I know I keep saying this, but I really really want Cam Reddish. His potential fit at SF and can switch on either wing spots and his shooting ability is so damn appealing to me considering Trae is an elite playmaker.

Trae
Kevin
Reddish
Collins
???

That's a damn good future! I would really like to add a center who can create and score back to the basket. I am considering Bassey but I want to see how he screens. Can Porter set quality screens? I really want that type of center since Collins really isn't much of a low post creator. I would like another playmaker and passer to go with Trae and Kevin. Cam is a willing passing abit not a good one. Collins tries but he's more of a poacher/finisher. We need a center who has all around skills and they can protect the paint.

[King Ken]

Odds:

That's crazy logic, though.

The 6th seed has a 37.2% chance of getting a top-4 pick. (No chance at the #5).
The 7th seed has a 31.9% chance of getting a top-4 pick. (No chance at the #5 or #6).

The #1, #2 and #3 seeds have a 52.1% chance of getting a top-4 pick.

Additionally, #1 cannot fall lower than fifth.
#2 cannot fall lower than sixth.
#3 cannot fall lower than seventh.

It is critical we stay between 1-6. Anything higher is trouble.

[LunchBox21]

I strongly dislike this freshman class outside of Zion. Reddish has been a huge letdown so far. Hope he has a strong conference play, otherwise I'd look at some of the upperclassmen like Culver.

[Nathan2331]

I'd be ecstatic if we got Reddish or Little with the Mavs pick, but as things stand I wouldn't take either with a top 3 pick. Little to me has a lot of work ahead of him, I'd prefer a prospect with a higher floor if our pick ends up in the top 3 or 4.

Reddish would come down to his predraft workouts if he doesn't start showing more this season. Cam hasn't produced enough for me to rate him as highly as Zion or RJ. I think he's better than his numbers have shown, but currently in his role at Duke, I don't think it's much better than what we get from Prince when he isn't trying to play like a #1 option.