mojo13 wrote:Wiggington has some serious work to do to get back in the conversation as a 1st rounder. I'm far from sold that he will get there.
At this point in the season I'm only convinced on three prospects as 1st rounders this year.
Barrett - although I am still very skeptical about his ceiling and think he will end up a slight disappointment (only because the expectations are so high). I think he is showing signs that he will be a high volume but inefficient scorer in the NBA. If he is a #1 option in the NBA my guess is that he will not on many winning teams.
Clarke - I am mesmerized with his high efficiency on both offense and defense and am very certain his floor is an important role player on winning team. He is putting up the best PER and BPM season in a decade after Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson. If the shooting touch is there (signs say it could be but no sure thing) he could have a better career than Barrett but it may take some time to get there (I might get killed her for that, but I am willing to go out on a limb).
NAW - playing great on both ends right now and shooting really well. The efficiency he is showing is very alluring even though he seems fairly slight and not overly athletic. He seems to have starter potential, or at least a 6-8th man.
Brazdeikis - is winning me over the more I see of him. I no longer think he will be a deficient defender at the the NBA level and it looks like he will be a capable player on offense and defense. He has great understanding of the game and I think has a great shot as a highly efficient 3&D wing.
Dort and $hittu - I am starting to seriously question both as first rounders this year. Both look like they may need another year to work on some obvious weaknesses (outside shooting for $hittu and decision/play making for Dort). Maybe Dort is in a lull right now and picks it up through conference play.
As mentioned, Wigginton needs more time, but it will be a uphill battle. It seems Haliburton has supplanted him as the prime NBA prospect at ISU.
I don't see Nembhard coming out this year. Brissett - I don't see as a draftable player right now.
But if I had to put money down right now as 2019 1st Round draft selections - it is going on Barrett, Clark and NAW. With Iggy rising and Dort, $hittu falling. The rest I think are low probabilities. Not to say many of the others don't eventually get there. And I do find this a weird year. Almost an embarrassment of riches. It seems in a normal year we'd be talking a heck of allot more about guys like Mariol Shayok, Kyle Anderson, Brissett and others with second round potential.
A good analysis Mojo. A couple of comments:
For RJ -- I think people were too high on him given the holes in his game, some of which are not likely to ever disappear (mediocre shooting and free throw, tendency to drive into walls, and just an okay feel on defense). But I also think the scouts (and you) are too low now. I think he'll become a better decision maker with the years and that fire he has in him will drive him to improve with the years. I can definitely see him as potentially a slightly better version of DeRozan (who took a couple of years to really make the step forward in the NBA), and while some people might find this kind of prediction disappointing, I don't think it should be.
For Clarke -- I'm also quite sold on him and agree that he has a high floor as a very contributing player. I love how he plays -- very intelligent and efficient. Wouldn't be surprised to see him as a lottery by July.
Brazdeikis -- Always loved his game. A much better defender than what people thought (could see that already in high school) and a very decent underrated athlete (probably because he's white...). I think he can be more than just a 3&D at the next level with his smart play and knack for scoring.
Dort -- I watched the last couple of games and that's really a slump. But I don't think it's primarily playmaking there. He actually looked somewhat better on this front (not as many turnovers) and in any case, he's not and never has been a PG. The thing is that he just couldn't buy a basket at the rim. Both against Kansas and vs. Princeton he still got to the rim with ease and just missed everything. We're talking easy layups here. I can't see him continuing to miss in this way. Some of it is just bad luck. And yes, he doesn't have the best finishing touch, but it has to come up at some point.
Simi -- as I wrote a while ago, my main concern with him is actually the defense. In his last game he actually looked better and more engaged. Almost as if he made some kind of a switch. Still not perfect, but at least he didn't give up on plays. When fully locked, he can be a good defender, and as such a contributing small-ball 5 with his handle and passing. The outside shooting needs work and confidence, but I don't think it's a lost cause.
Shayok -- I think he actually leads the Big 12 in scoring. But at the next level he'll need to be a real 3&D. And as such he's not shooting well enough (only 33%) and though he's fairly strong and long, I don't think he's quick enough to be an actual stopper at the next level. Still, I think he could certainly end up as a second rounder, but maybe it's even better if he's not and gets to choose the team he wants to try out for. He'll also be 24 when the draft is here, so not that much room for improvement. Still, he's giving a hell of a season, much better than anyone expected and he's definitely a fringe NBA guy.