2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[getrichordie]

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Interesting. I never really thought about the gambling this season, but it does look like the steals are the result of sound defense and not just athleticism and luck.

Yeah, it seems to be the biggest change to Westbrook’s game from a defensive standpoint. Overall, it’s up there with the offensive change Russ has made (not driving wildly to the basket in transition.)


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[Mattv]

Presti just signed Donte Grantham to a Two-Way, boys. Thoughts?


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I think it a good pickup for Okc he can do alittle bit of everthing on the floor especially is his 3 keeps falling at 40%.

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[Dn4sty]

Presti just signed Donte Grantham to a Two-Way, boys. Thoughts?


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I think it a good pickup for Okc he can do alittle bit of everthing on the floor especially is his 3 keeps falling at 40%.

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I’d much rather take shots on wings/creators with 2 way contracts, as scrap heap bigs are readily available. At least give these guys a shot.

[getrichordie]

Presti just signed Donte Grantham to a Two-Way, boys. Thoughts?


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I think it a good pickup for Okc he can do alittle bit of everthing on the floor especially is his 3 keeps falling at 40%.

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I’d much rather take shots on wings/creators with 2 way contracts, as scrap heap bigs are readily available. At least give these guys a shot.

100% agreed. Competent wings are hard to come by. Why not take a flyer on Grantham and see what he can do?


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[CROklahoma]

Nader showed he is a reliable 3pt threat, and he showed glimpses of great defense on one of the toughest covers in the league.
Isnt that what we looked for whole the time ?
Stretch 3&D guy who can cover multiple positions.
We may be onto something here ...
Justin was right.

[Pillendreher]

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If this doesn't get them in, I don't know what will.

[Pillendreher]

Something I just stumbled upon (per pbpstats.com):

Westbrook-George-Adams: 115.7 ORtG
Westbrook-George-Adams AND Schröder: 120.0 ORtG
Westbrook-George-Adams WITHOUT Schröder: 112.9 ORtG

What gives? Schröder's individual offensive output is miniscule in that lineup: 17.2 points per 100 possessions (which accounts for 14 % of the lineup's points) and 5.2 assists per 100 possessions (which acounts for 21 % of the lineup's assists) on 52.6 TS%/15.4 TS%. And on a team level, the shooting stats are almost identical: 53.94 eFG% with him on, 53.79 eFG% with him off.

Moving on from the shooting, stats.nba.com says that the big difference is, well, basically everywhere:



Can somebody explain this to me? Why do Westbrook's/George's/Adam's FTA per 100 possessions suddenly double with Schröder on the floor? Why are Westbrook, George and Grant suddenly rebounding at a better rate offensively? Why are we turning the ball over less?

[RalphSampsonJr]

Something I just stumbled upon (per pbpstats.com):

Westbrook-George-Adams: 115.7 ORtG
Westbrook-George-Adams AND Schröder: 120.0 ORtG
Westbrook-George-Adams WITHOUT Schröder: 112.9 ORtG

What gives? Schröder's individual offensive output is miniscule in that lineup: 17.2 points per 100 possessions (which accounts for 14 % of the lineup's points) and 5.2 assists per 100 possessions (which acounts for 21 % of the lineup's assists) on 52.6 TS%/15.4 TS%. And on a team level, the shooting stats are almost identical: 53.94 eFG% with him on, 53.79 eFG% with him off.

Moving on from the shooting, stats.nba.com says that the big difference is, well, basically everywhere:



Can somebody explain this to me? Why do Westbrook's/George's/Adam's FTA per 100 possessions suddenly double with Schröder on the floor? Why are Westbrook, George and Grant suddenly rebounding at a better rate offensively? Why are we turning the ball over less?

Interesting.. maybe the defense is staying alot more honest with dennis on the floor compared to tferg? Leading to alot more dribble penetration hand offs leading to better looks/fouls?

I notice pg and russ seem alot more willing to look for the best shot when schroder is in. Like they know they have 4 other ayers that can do damage.
The offensive rebounding is weird.. maybe because dennis is in alot of closing lineups where others are trting harder to get extra possesions?

[getrichordie]

Something I just stumbled upon (per pbpstats.com):

Westbrook-George-Adams: 115.7 ORtG
Westbrook-George-Adams AND Schröder: 120.0 ORtG
Westbrook-George-Adams WITHOUT Schröder: 112.9 ORtG

What gives? Schröder's individual offensive output is miniscule in that lineup: 17.2 points per 100 possessions (which accounts for 14 % of the lineup's points) and 5.2 assists per 100 possessions (which acounts for 21 % of the lineup's assists) on 52.6 TS%/15.4 TS%. And on a team level, the shooting stats are almost identical: 53.94 eFG% with him on, 53.79 eFG% with him off.

Moving on from the shooting, stats.nba.com says that the big difference is, well, basically everywhere:



Can somebody explain this to me? Why do Westbrook's/George's/Adam's FTA per 100 possessions suddenly double with Schröder on the floor? Why are Westbrook, George and Grant suddenly rebounding at a better rate offensively? Why are we turning the ball over less?

Interesting.. maybe the defense is staying alot more honest with dennis on the floor compared to tferg? Leading to alot more dribble penetration hand offs leading to better looks/fouls?

I notice pg and russ seem alot more willing to look for the best shot when schroder is in. Like they know they have 4 other ayers that can do damage.
The offensive rebounding is weird.. maybe because dennis is in alot of closing lineups where others are trting harder to get extra possesions?

As weird as it sounds, Schroder provides more spacing than Ferguson does. Schroder is an actual threat because of how he can attack late or bad close outs and create his own shot or create for others. Ferguson? Not so much. Ferguson doesn’t have the skill set to do those things.

To put it more simply, since I suck with words:

Schroder keeps the defense more honest than Ferguson does.

What you are analyzing is the tip of the iceberg of what an elite 2-guard can do for our offense.

As much as you guys don’t like hearing it, if we have an elite 2-guard alongside a Russ and a George and a Grant, Adams’ strengths becomes a lot less relevant. I’m not sure why no one can seem to see that.

Furthermore, there’s a reason why the Beal talk is there. He would be perfect for this role. He can handle the ball quite well, create his own shot and play off ball. He can also run our 2U and be both our starter and our 6th man. He’s literally the perfect player to put next to Russ and George.

Just imagine giving the majority of Schroder’s and Ferguson’s minutes to Beal...

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[Pillendreher]

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I've been seeing this a lot lately. Teams are packing the paint like this constantly. Even when we have guys spotting up on the wing, most of the defenders have one foot inside the paint.

[getrichordie]

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I've been seeing this a lot lately. Teams are packing the paint like this constantly. Even when we have guys spotting up on the wing, most of the defenders have one foot inside the paint.

Is this really that shocking? They were doing the same thing to us last year except instead of sagging off Russ super hard when on the perimeter, they were sagging off of Roberson, Melo, and Russ and packing the paint.

This year it’s just new faces, same problem except it’s mainly teams sagging off of Russ, Ferguson and Grant to various degrees.

The offense is the problem even with George playing like the second coming of Durant. Westbrook deserves the most blame. Not Schroder, not the role players. Westbrook. He’s taking too many shots.

The obvious band-aid solution is to get Schroder the ball more and give the ball to Russ less as unpopular as that is to hear. Schroder makes better decisions and hits more of his shots, period.

Westbrook is much better when he is being much more judicious with his shot selection but he keeps trying to be more of a factor on offense than he really needs to be. As many strides Westbrook has made to adjust to what some think is decline, he keeps defaulting back to what he knows: a lot of shots, except he’s not been effective at getting to the rim in part because of decline and in part because of the opposing game plan. So what’s the adjustment? Take more mid-range shots.

So, I don’t care how it makes everyone else feel. Based on what we’ve seen this season, I’m officially advocating for a little less Russ and a little more everyone else. Let’s not let Russ turn into Melo.



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[getrichordie]

In games where Westbrook has attempted 17 shots or less, the Thunder are 10-2.

When Westbrook attempts 18 or more shots, the Thunder are 7-8.

I’d be willing to be that there is some kind of correlation between Westbrook having a lower USG% and the Thunder having a higher win %. Not sure how to calculate that or if there is a tool to do that.

Also, is there a stat that shows players AST per 100 numbers with an adjustment for USG%?

I imagine the calculation would be something like this:

AST (per 100) *divided by* USG%?

Maybe there’s some way to factor in AST/TO ratio. I’m sure there’s already a stat that calculates this, I just don’t know which one it is.

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[Pillendreher]

In games where Westbrook has attempted 17 shots or less, the Thunder are 10-2.

When Westbrook attempts 18 or more shots, the Thunder are 7-8.

I’d be willing to be that there is some kind of correlation between Westbrook having a lower USG% and the Thunder having a higher win %. Not sure how to calculate that or if there is a tool to do that.

There's nothing to take from that. Is it because Westbrook is taking fewer shots? Is it because his teammates are making shots? You simply can't tell.

Also, is there a stat that shows players AST per 100 numbers with an adjustment for USG%?

I imagine the calculation would be something like this:

AST (per 100) *divided by* USG%?

Maybe there’s some way to factor in AST/TO ratio. I’m sure there’s already a stat that calculates this, I just don’t know which one it is.

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I can give you this: It's Points created via assists divided by USG% compared to the team's overall ORtG. I'd be better with the team's ORtG with Westbrook on the floor, but this has to do either way because pbpstats.com doesn't offer that as a game log. Last night's game isn't included in the stats.



This is not telling me anything though. Hell, I don't even think that this "stat" makes much sense. You'd probably have to look at the number of possessions used as defined by USG% (ie shot attempts, free throw attempts, turnovers) compared to his potential assists each game.

[slick_watts]

his 3pt% and ft% are shocking. he's shooting more threes this year but they've come at the expense of long twos which should be a good thing. at 24.2% 3pt, obviously, it isn't. he's currently got the lowest 3pt% of any player in a season attempting more than four per game. not only is he shooting 60% from the line, he's getting there far less than he ever has before (.285 FTr). i wonder if he's avoiding getting to the line because of his struggles? that's a slippery slope.

he's turning it over 17.7% of the time he uses a possession which is the highest of his career. going for offensive rebounds less often.

we'rd almost in 2019 and nothing about this looks better than it did four or five weeks ago. i think it's time to take this seriously.

[ThunderBolt]

his 3pt% and ft% are shocking. he's shooting more threes this year but they've come at the expense of long twos which should be a good thing. at 24.2% 3pt, obviously, it isn't. he's currently got the lowest 3pt% of any player in a season attempting more than four per game. not only is he shooting 60% from the line, he's getting there far less than he ever has before (.285 FTr). i wonder if he's avoiding getting to the line because of his struggles? that's a slippery slope.

he's turning it over 17.7% of the time he uses a possession which is the highest of his career. going for offensive rebounds less often.

we'rd almost in 2019 and nothing about this looks better than it did four or five weeks ago. i think it's time to take this seriously.

Which means what? There's absolutely nothing we can do about it. It is what it is.

[slick_watts]

Which means what? There's absolutely nothing we can do about it. It is what it is.

wallow in misery.

[Pillendreher]

This includes the Detroit game at the beginning of December:



He's still shooting 61 % in the restricted area during that stretch btw. That would mark a career high if he managed to do that all season long. The issue has been shot selection and the inability to draw FTs and make FTs. Seven attempts in the restricted area vs nine pull up attempts (27 FG% on those) vs .244 FTr vs 56.9 FT%.

[ThunderBolt]

Russ is 382nd out of 453 in TS% at a blistering 47.8%.

[getrichordie]

In games where Westbrook has attempted 17 shots or less, the Thunder are 10-2.

When Westbrook attempts 18 or more shots, the Thunder are 7-8.

I’d be willing to be that there is some kind of correlation between Westbrook having a lower USG% and the Thunder having a higher win %. Not sure how to calculate that or if there is a tool to do that.

There's nothing to take from that. Is it because Westbrook is taking fewer shots? Is it because his teammates are making shots? You simply can't tell.

Also, is there a stat that shows players AST per 100 numbers with an adjustment for USG%?

I imagine the calculation would be something like this:

AST (per 100) *divided by* USG%?

Maybe there’s some way to factor in AST/TO ratio. I’m sure there’s already a stat that calculates this, I just don’t know which one it is.

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I can give you this: It's Points created via assists divided by USG% compared to the team's overall ORtG. I'd be better with the team's ORtG with Westbrook on the floor, but this has to do either way because pbpstats.com doesn't offer that as a game log. Last night's game isn't included in the stats.



This is not telling me anything though. Hell, I don't even think that this "stat" makes much sense. You'd probably have to look at the number of possessions used as defined by USG% (ie shot attempts, free throw attempts, turnovers) compared to his potential assists each game.

Eh... just kind of want a simple sample. Nothing to complex.

Potential assists per 100 *divided by* USG% would be awesome. Where can I get that data to do the math myself?


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[Pillendreher]

Potential assists per 100 *divided by* USG% would be awesome. Where can I get that data to do the math myself?

You'd have to do it that way: Find out the amount of possessions stats.nba.com used for each game Westbrook played in both overall and with him on the court. Then use that to apply the date filter for each and every single game here

https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/

in order to calculate the per 100 stats. After you've done that, you can gets his USG% for each game here:

https://stats.nba.com/player/201566/boxscores-advanced/

That way you should be able to calculate how many possessions he used to create shots for others, draw FTs, take a shot and turn the ball over.