Trevor Ariza -- the 2d time around

[payitforward]

Trevor Ariza has been with the Wizards now for 7 games. Fans have been happy. Commentators point out how much he brings to the team. Scott Brooks has played him nearly 40 minutes a game.

It's a feel good story, as they say -- & God knows Ted & Ernie needed one!

But... how is he doing so far. I mean really. When history & hype are put aside. & how are we doing with him?

Well, we were 12-18 pre Trevor, & we are 2-5 in his 7 games with us. So, we're not playing better, we're playing worse. Oh, & 1 of those 2 wins was by 3 points in 3 overtimes against the worst team in the league.

In those 7 games, we are 55 points down vs. our opponents: almost 8 points per game. Prior to Trevor's arrival, we were down 4.1 points a game to our opponents.

So far not so good.

Of course, Trevor still might be playing well! But, unfortunately, he's not.

Trevor is at 44.7% on 2 point shots & 32.2% on 3 point shots: i.e. his effective FG% overall is 46.9%. He is killing it from the line, however, which helps -- but his total scoring percentage is still a very bad 50.4% An average wing is at 53.9% this year -- & Trevor's usage as a Wizard has been just slightly lower than an average wing.

Still... there's more to the game than scoring, & Trevor is a little above average for a wing on the rest of the stuff he does on the court.

Overall, however, as a Wizard this time through, Trevor Ariza has neither played well nor helped the team play better in any way. Not surprisingly, he's playing about the same way he did for Phoenix this year before the trade.

None of the above should be taken as criticism of Trevor Ariza. He's been a really good NBA player. But, he's in his 15th year; he's played over 30,000 minutes & almost 1000 NBA games. It's no surprise that we're not seeing him at or anywhere near his career average (let alone his career best)!

It's not Trevor's name that helps win games -- only his numbers can do that. & it seems unlikely that his numbers will change much as the season progresses.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

After this stretch, Trevor will be traded and the tank will be official

[dorianwrite]

Based on the thread title, now I have Shalamar stuck in my head. Thanks, thanks a lot.

[trast66]

I like to watch the games and only look at the numbers periodically to see if confirms or denies what I’m seeing. What I see is that he’s not really playing well. The one thing I have noticed that a peek at his numbers seems to confirm is he is shooting too much. Especially at this stage of his career he should not be getting up 14 shots per game, he’s not that type of player. He’s still OK defensively, again not what he was, but that could be that our entire team seems to not know what’s its doing on defense.

Every second he’s on the court increases the chance he gets hurt and we get nothing, not even cap relief. It was silly to trade for him in first place, and even sillier now to hold on to him.

[BigA]

Based on the thread title, now I have Shalamar stuck in my head. Thanks, thanks a lot.

HA! You're not alone!

[Ruzious]

Gotta factor in that he's brand new to the team, and they've been playing without Otto and only partially with Wall. I think he's played well under the circumstances, but at what end - what purpose? I'd say he's a tradable asset, but my understanding is he won't be eligible to be traded before the trade deadline. Otoh, maybe his presence allows them to trade Green - who could be useful as part of a package?

[pcbothwel]

Gotta factor in that he's brand new to the team, and they've been playing without Otto and only partially with Wall. I think he's played well under the circumstances, but at what end - what purpose? I'd say he's a tradable asset, but my understanding is he won't be eligible to be traded before the trade deadline. Otoh, maybe his presence allows them to trade Green - who could be useful as part of a package?

1) He can be traded, but he cannot be sent along with any other Wizards players. Very easy to accommodate.
2) His defense, rebounding, passing, steals, fouling, interior scoring etc. is all in-line with his last 5 years of production. So really, he is simply a nice hot 3pt shooting streak from being a much better asset.

He shouldnt of been traded for, but I will withhold judgement until the deadline. Oubre certainly did us no favors by regressing. He has become a tunnel vision chucker with low IQ on both ends of the court.

BTW, for those acting as if Oubre will now "Break out" with the Suns... he is even worse for them so far. He cost himself a TON of money. Just slight improvement over last year would of netted him a solid 3/45M deal...Easy. Now he is looking at accepting his QO.

[Ruzious]

Gotta factor in that he's brand new to the team, and they've been playing without Otto and only partially with Wall. I think he's played well under the circumstances, but at what end - what purpose? I'd say he's a tradable asset, but my understanding is he won't be eligible to be traded before the trade deadline. Otoh, maybe his presence allows them to trade Green - who could be useful as part of a package?

1) He can be traded, but he cannot be sent along with any other Wizards players. Very easy to accommodate.
2) His defense, rebounding, passing, steals, fouling, interior scoring etc. is all in-line with his last 5 years of production. So really, he is simply a nice hot 3pt shooting streak from being a much better asset.

He shouldnt of been traded for, but I will withhold judgement until the deadline. Oubre certainly did us no favors by regressing. He has become a tunnel vision chucker with low IQ on both ends of the court.

BTW, for those acting as if Oubre will now "Break out" with the Suns... he is even worse for them so far. He cost himself a TON of money. Just slight improvement over last year would of netted him a solid 3/45M deal...Easy. Now he is looking at accepting his QO.

Realistically, what are they going to get for Ariza on a straight up deal - considering Sacramento is the only team with real cap room?

[Kanyewest]

Wizards without Otto Porter are now 5-13 in the last 2= seasons including the playoffs. The Wizards without Otto Porter but with Trevor Ariza are now 2-5 (but 2-1 without John Wall and Otto Porter). The Suns are 2-5 with Kelly Oubre. And the Rockets are now 4-0 with Austin Rivers (although some of that may have to do with a certain player scoring at least 41 points a game in that span).

[nate33]

Realistically, what are they going to get for Ariza on a straight up deal - considering Sacramento is the only team with real cap room?

The Wizards only need to take back $10M in return and it will work with any non luxtax team.

So they could trade him for, say, Rondo, a vet minimum salary, and a 2nd (saves $4.5M). Or Koufos and a 2nd (saves $5.5M). Or to New Orleans for Johnson + Payton + Jackson and a 2nd (saves $4.5M and as much as $6M if we dump our non guaranteed contracts afterwards). Or to Philly for Chandler (saves only $2.2M, would want good picks).

[pcbothwel]

Gotta factor in that he's brand new to the team, and they've been playing without Otto and only partially with Wall. I think he's played well under the circumstances, but at what end - what purpose? I'd say he's a tradable asset, but my understanding is he won't be eligible to be traded before the trade deadline. Otoh, maybe his presence allows them to trade Green - who could be useful as part of a package?

1) He can be traded, but he cannot be sent along with any other Wizards players. Very easy to accommodate.
2) His defense, rebounding, passing, steals, fouling, interior scoring etc. is all in-line with his last 5 years of production. So really, he is simply a nice hot 3pt shooting streak from being a much better asset.

He shouldnt of been traded for, but I will withhold judgement until the deadline. Oubre certainly did us no favors by regressing. He has become a tunnel vision chucker with low IQ on both ends of the court.

BTW, for those acting as if Oubre will now "Break out" with the Suns... he is even worse for them so far. He cost himself a TON of money. Just slight improvement over last year would of netted him a solid 3/45M deal...Easy. Now he is looking at accepting his QO.

Realistically, what are they going to get for Ariza on a straight up deal - considering Sacramento is the only team with real cap room?

There are many iterations of an Ariza trade that accomplish our objective. Obviously, the Kings are the easiest fit, but there a number of non taxpaying teams that could give us 10M in expiring contracts.
I think a Great trade would be Ariza to the Pacers for Tyreke. They need wing defenders and are deep at Guard with Dipo, Collison, Cory Joseph, and Holiday.
Tyreke makes 12M and Ariza makes 15M
Ariza to the Pacers, and Tyreke to a 3rd team with the third team sending expirings seems obvious.

Ariza immediately becomes your super sub wing behind Bogey and Young... while opening up more minutes for Holiday now with Dipo back.
Thoughts?

[Ruzious]

Oubre averaged 0.7 assists in his 26 minutes per game with the Wiz this season. That's hard to do for a player with as much usage as he'd get. He should get 1 per game just by accident. It's a good indicator of his BBIQ and lack of court awareness. Ariza - never known as a great assist guy - has averaged 4.1 albeit in a crazy high 39.3 minutes per game with the Wiz.

I do enjoy watching the front court of Ariza, Green, and Bryant, but Bryant's the only one who's got a good chance of being part of the Wiz future.

[trast66]

Gotta factor in that he's brand new to the team, and they've been playing without Otto and only partially with Wall. I think he's played well under the circumstances, but at what end - what purpose? I'd say he's a tradable asset, but my understanding is he won't be eligible to be traded before the trade deadline. Otoh, maybe his presence allows them to trade Green - who could be useful as part of a package?

1) He can be traded, but he cannot be sent along with any other Wizards players. Very easy to accommodate.
2) His defense, rebounding, passing, steals, fouling, interior scoring etc. is all in-line with his last 5 years of production. So really, he is simply a nice hot 3pt shooting streak from being a much better asset.

He shouldnt of been traded for, but I will withhold judgement until the deadline. Oubre certainly did us no favors by regressing. He has become a tunnel vision chucker with low IQ on both ends of the court.

BTW, for those acting as if Oubre will now "Break out" with the Suns... he is even worse for them so far. He cost himself a TON of money. Just slight improvement over last year would of netted him a solid 3/45M deal...Easy. Now he is looking at accepting his QO.

Huge mystery to me what Kelly is up to. I was sure (and so was he apparently) he would get at least 3/45, likely more. I'm not sure I have ever been more wrong about a guy's contract worth. He seems to be in the doghouse already in PHX. I would have for sure offered him what Justice Winslow got and made it work by stretching Mahinmi if had to. Will PHX even extend the QO?

[leswizards]

The trade was another awful move by eg. Ariza appears to be done, and he is the new “rivers” (ie, brooks play him way too many minutes).

[payitforward]

Ariza has been terrible. Worse than Oubre was. But the main problem with the move is the usual Ernie problem -- this was another "jolt" trade, & it was predicated on his hope that we could sneak into the playoffs, a fool idea to begin with & not helpful even if we did or do sneak in.

This team needs forward-looking assets. Oubre for a R2 pick would have been far better. But, of course Ernie would never make that trade. He chose Oubre w/ the #15 pick in the draft -- giving up the #19 & two Round 2 picks for the privilege.

If you think he would take back a single R2 pick for a guy he obviously thought so well of, then you don't know Ernie! Never.

[Meliorus]

Massive ballhog who doesn't try to hide it. Man is pining for a new contract

[nate33]

Ariza is averaging 5.6 assists per game over the last 9 games (and 4.5 assists per game in his 15 games as a Wizard). That's honestly a ridiculous amount of assists for a guy who doesn't handle the ball at all. Ariza's contribution to the team's ball movement is an underrated key to their recent good play.

[payitforward]

Fair enough... but he's playing 38+ minutes a game, nate.

[gambitx777]

Ariza has been terrible. Worse than Oubre was. But the main problem with the move is the usual Ernie problem -- this was another "jolt" trade, & it was predicated on his hope that we could sneak into the playoffs, a fool idea to begin with & not helpful even if we did or do sneak in.

This team needs forward-looking assets. Oubre for a R2 pick would have been far better. But, of course Ernie would never make that trade. He chose Oubre w/ the #15 pick in the draft -- giving up the #19 & two Round 2 picks for the privilege.

If you think he would take back a single R2 pick for a guy he obviously thought so well of, then you don't know Ernie! Never.

In EG logic he probably values ariza as a high quality vet worth a mid first. So when he go Kelley and Austin rivers dumped for ariza. He saw that as a bargin. Considering he wasn't sold on either being on the team next year. I don't like this logic but I think that's how it went.

[youngWizzy]

These are the stats to this day between Ariza and Oubre



The image is small but in summary (right click on the image and open in new tab to see it larger),

While Ariza's has shot the ball a lot more on the Wiz his percentages are still poor at 39% from the field and 31% from 3. His rebounding has been virtually the same as was in Phoenix. His assists have not really increased "dramatically" at all. He has went from 3.3 in Phoenix to 4.2 now. Steals, blocks, TO's virtually the same. 15.2 ppg with the Wiz to 9.9 ppg with the Suns.

Oubre is averaging only 1 more minute per game playing on the Suns than playing on the Wiz so far. He is taking 12.1 shots per game on the Suns compared to 10.5 shots per game on the Wiz. His percentages are still the same for the most part. 43% from the field in both teams 34% from three in Phoenix vs 31% from three on the Wiz. His assists are up again, barely 1.5 vs 0.7. Steals up 1.1 to 0.7. Scoring up from 12.9 here with the Wiz to 14.8 in Phoenix (on nearly 2 more shots per game).

Oubre is actually having a great year in Phoenix compared to what Ariza is doing in Washington. Putting up similar production aside from assists in 10 less minutes per game.