Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XX: Year of the Vuc

[NotACat]

I have been pleasantly surprised by how well DJ has played for us so far, but we desperately need another point guard to replace Jerian. I don't think we'll be able to get a superstar like Kemba, but I think we might be in the market for someone like Darren Collison. I realize he's 31 and we want our PG of the future asap, but Darren is a starting point guard on a really good playoff team. He could push DJ back to the bench and help us space the floor for 48 minutes and play some solid defense.

There are a lot of this mid-tier of average to slightly above average PGs available next year. I rate them in these tiers and underlined the ones I'd go after. I would be shocked next year if we don't walk away with a better PG core than we have this year.

All NBA level / All-Star (20M/yr)
Kemba Walker

Above Average / Potential All-Star (14M/yr)
De'Angelo Russel

Good Starter (9M/yr)
Terry Rozier
Ricky Rubio
Tomas Satoransky
Malcolm Brogdon

Strong Backup (6M/yr)
Jeremy Lin
Daren Collison
Rajon Rondo
Cory Joseph

Decent Backup (4M/yr)
TJ McConnell
Milos Teodosic
Trey Burke
Delon Wright
Patrick Beverly

I personally hope if we strike out Kemba we just go for Tomas Satoransky, Rubio, or Lin. Those would be my top 3. Although he is an RFA, I I think we could get Satoransky for 3yr 21M deal since WAS is strapped for cash.

Don't forget Eric Bledsoe, I'd consider him to be a good starter.

[Skybox]

I have been pleasantly surprised by how well DJ has played for us so far, but we desperately need another point guard to replace Jerian. I don't think we'll be able to get a superstar like Kemba, but I think we might be in the market for someone like Darren Collison. I realize he's 31 and we want our PG of the future asap, but Darren is a starting point guard on a really good playoff team. He could push DJ back to the bench and help us space the floor for 48 minutes and play some solid defense.

There are a lot of this mid-tier of average to slightly above average PGs available next year. I rate them in these tiers and underlined the ones I'd go after. I would be shocked next year if we don't walk away with a better PG core than we have this year.

All NBA level / All-Star (20M/yr)
Kemba Walker

Above Average / Potential All-Star (14M/yr)
De'Angelo Russel

Good Starter (9M/yr)
Terry Rozier
Ricky Rubio
Tomas Satoransky
Malcolm Brogdon

Strong Backup (6M/yr)
Jeremy Lin
Daren Collison
Rajon Rondo
Cory Joseph

Decent Backup (4M/yr)
TJ McConnell
Milos Teodosic
Trey Burke
Delon Wright
Patrick Beverly

I personally hope if we strike out Kemba we just go for Tomas Satoransky, Rubio, or Lin. Those would be my top 3. Although he is an RFA, I I think we could get Satoransky for 3yr 21M deal since WAS is strapped for cash.

Good list...not a FA but definitely on the radar is Dennis Smith, Jr. as a potential target. I think you've got some of these guys undervalued (salary-wise) like Brogdon and Rozier will get more a lot more than 9m offers and Russell will get more than 14m.

I like a few of these options (Kemba, DSJ, Rozier, DLo, Brogdon, Satoransky-in order)(maybe PatBev or Rubio) but the rest don't do anything for me. I don't think they push DJ to the bench role, so why bother...just my opinion. I hope we're after bigger game!!

[VFX]

Going back to rebuilding means being a bottom 3-5 team for another 3-4 years. That would make a decade at the bottom and if they don't WIN a superstar in the lottery, would be in the same position we are in now.

No matter how much people cry "need to tank", it ain't gonna happen no matter how loud they scream. Deal with the current team and other ways the Magic can improve.

Other teams been rebuilt in far less time and managed to be fun to watch. Orlando won’t need to tank if they can swing good deals for some of these players that have lead this organization nowhere.

So, if it happened before, it is guaranteed to happen again? Historically, most tank rebuilds fail. I don't get where people think it is ok to tank for a decade when the best teams are built and developed, not won in the lottery.

The point of my original post wasn’t to promote tanking. It was about trading players to make a roster capable of doing more long term, instead of sticking with the same guys year after year with negative results. If Orlando is bad enough to earn a top pick, that wouldn’t necessarily be a terrible thing to happen if we are still seeking talent in the process.

[pepe1991]

Adding young talents is way easier to say than done.
Nobody sells young talents if they are actually - talents.
Most of young players that are on trade blacks flat out suck and that's why they are on trade blocks.

In general to buy young player you have to pay 1,25 for 1$ for no good reason but fact that kid is young.
In most cases, most young players just fizzle out.


There is also excellent but bit older study of how nba teams get dumber by falling in love with "new thrends" of drafting

http://www.tothemean.com/2014/07/06/predicting-future-market-inefficiencies-in-the-nba.html

Conclusions
As I expected, in the charts above you can clearly see some visible changes in trends over the years. In the interesting charts I analyzed I saw three clear themes:

Overreacting to hot new trends (hand size, vertical, sprint, wingspan, age)
Less focus on more fundamental attributes as new data is introduced (OWS, WS)
Historically overlooked stats (AST, STL)
Based on this, unless you are able to consistently see the hot new trends before/as they are happening I would urge teams to not lose sight of the basics and to be careful to not overvalue what is trending and instead take advantage of the market inefficiency that other teams are introducing.

There is even paragraph about wingspan .

[Cosmic_Backlash]

Good list...not a FA but definitely on the radar is Dennis Smith, Jr. as a potential target. I think you've got some of these guys undervalued (salary-wise) like Brogdon and Rozier will get more a lot more than 9m offers and Russell will get more than 14m.

I like a few of these options (Kemba, DSJ, Rozier, DLo, Brogdon, Satoransky-in order)(maybe PatBev or Rubio) but the rest don't do anything for me. I don't think they push DJ to the bench role, so why bother...just my opinion. I hope we're after bigger game!!

Some of these guys will definitely get way more than what tiers I put them in, I just personally wouldn't give them much more. We saw GMs significantly wise up the last 2 years. No more Mozgov, Biyombo, Mahinmi contracts. We just saw Dinwiddie sign for 11M a year. Gordon signed a declining contract last year, Randle signed for 9M a year, Smart 13M a year, etc.

I don't think anyone I put in that 9M a year tier is going to get more than 13M. Rozier will probably get the most, and be the most regretted. Brogdon will probably end up around 11M. Those are partly the reason I didn't underline them - not worth pursuing IMO. I would much rather get Rubio or Sato on a reasonable deal. We also stand a chance to get reasonable 1-2 year deals if the market runs dry quick. As soon as the stars sign and Rozier & Brogdon take their earnings, prices will start dropping - nobody else will have the same cap space or need.

I also did forget Bledsoe! He'll probably get around the 12-13M a year mark as well... and more deserving than someone like Rozier.

[BadHombre]

Watch on YouTube

Posting some Bamba highlights from his young and early career.

He's far from being a finished product, but he's showing some nice things to build off.

- Shot blocking: We knew he could block shots, and he's done well already. Once he gets better at his positioning and better timed rotations, he'll be a real difference maker.
- Shooting: His 3pt shot looks good. It's not a high % shot yet, and he leans on it too much at times, but it's nice that he has this in his arsenal already at age 20. C's who are presently in the league and have 3pt shots mostly developed those later in their careers as the pace and space era moved in.
- Rim Running: His potential to be a great PnR/garbage point threat can clearly be seen in this video. He's able to tower above other players for lobs and rebounds. Can't wait to see what he does with a PG who can run the PnR well.
- Handles: He's shown flashes of handles on only a few plays, including a crossover on Rudy Gobert, but it's exciting to think he could build off this.

Overall, we're all well versed in what he needs to improve - strength and awareness. But his offensive potential looks like it could be a dark-horse strength for him. We've got a solid prospect on our hands here, and we should enjoy the process of watching him grow and improve over the next few years.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

Bamba needs to stop chucking 3s and start being around the rim. We saw OKC do this this Domantas - had him shoot a bunch of 3s, and then Indiana moved him closer and he turned into an ultra productive bench player. He's in love with the 3 even though it's hurting him as a player. He's not in position to get o-rebounds, be a cutter, etc.

[pepe1991]

I will not put too much hope in FA especially because it's naive to think players this year , especially PG won't get overpayed.

So many bad teams without PG have lot of many and no PG .

And given how FA in nba works ( players flat out re-sign within first hour before ever hitting market ) , free agency will turn into bidding war of lot of teams for few good players.

[tiderulz]

I will not put too much hope in FA especially because it's naive to think players this year , especially PG won't get overpayed.

So many bad teams without PG have lot of many and no PG .

And given how FA in nba works ( players flat out re-sign within first hour before ever hitting market ) , free agency will turn into bidding war of lot of teams for few good players.

are there really THAT many teams without a PG?

[j-ragg]

Bamba needs to stop chucking 3s and start being around the rim. We saw OKC do this this Domantas - had him shoot a bunch of 3s, and then Indiana moved him closer and he turned into an ultra productive bench player. He's in love with the 3 even though it's hurting him as a player. He's not in position to get o-rebounds, be a cutter, etc.

I agree in theory but Sabonis is one of the best back to the basket players in the league. Bamba hasn’t shown he can post really anyone up, he’s just way too frail. I don’t deny that he has the talent to be able to score, he’s just super weak.

[J the Drafter]

From the sound of it, Bamba also needs to gain stamina. I would expect that to cure his motor problems, but that could be a personality flaw for all I know. I just hope he can increase his stamina. If his body isn’t built to gain endurance than he won’t amount to much.

[pepe1991]

I will not put too much hope in FA especially because it's naive to think players this year , especially PG won't get overpayed.

So many bad teams without PG have lot of many and no PG .

And given how FA in nba works ( players flat out re-sign within first hour before ever hitting market ) , free agency will turn into bidding war of lot of teams for few good players.

are there really THAT many teams without a PG?

Magic, Suns, Minny, Detroit, Bulls, Bucks (Brogdon,Bledsoe FAs ), Hornets ( Kemba FA), Jazz ( unless they will start Exum and let Rubio go ).
There are teams like Spurs, Pelicans that might look to upgrade PG spot as well.

That's 1/3 of the league right there lol

[BadMofoPimp]

Good list...not a FA but definitely on the radar is Dennis Smith, Jr. as a potential target. I think you've got some of these guys undervalued (salary-wise) like Brogdon and Rozier will get more a lot more than 9m offers and Russell will get more than 14m.

I like a few of these options (Kemba, DSJ, Rozier, DLo, Brogdon, Satoransky-in order)(maybe PatBev or Rubio) but the rest don't do anything for me. I don't think they push DJ to the bench role, so why bother...just my opinion. I hope we're after bigger game!!

Some of these guys will definitely get way more than what tiers I put them in, I just personally wouldn't give them much more. We saw GMs significantly wise up the last 2 years. No more Mozgov, Biyombo, Mahinmi contracts. We just saw Dinwiddie sign for 11M a year. Gordon signed a declining contract last year, Randle signed for 9M a year, Smart 13M a year, etc.

I don't think anyone I put in that 9M a year tier is going to get more than 13M. Rozier will probably get the most, and be the most regretted. Brogdon will probably end up around 11M. Those are partly the reason I didn't underline them - not worth pursuing IMO. I would much rather get Rubio or Sato on a reasonable deal. We also stand a chance to get reasonable 1-2 year deals if the market runs dry quick. As soon as the stars sign and Rozier & Brogdon take their earnings, prices will start dropping - nobody else will have the same cap space or need.

I also did forget Bledsoe! He'll probably get around the 12-13M a year mark as well... and more deserving than someone like Rozier.

Don't want nothing to do with Bledsoe. DJ >>>> Bledsoe

[Bergmaniac]

Bledsoe is not leaving the Bucks for the Magic anyway.

Bamba can't score on post-ups against NBA defenders for now, too weak and his post moves are pretty basic. But we need to use his mobility and height a lot more in pick and rolls with him getting the ball on the move and finishing inside instead of always going for the pick and pop or just have him spot up in the corner. Unfortunately we really lack perimeter players who can run the pick and roll well, Grant might well be the worst PG in the league at this.

[drsd]

Bamba can't score on post-ups against NBA defenders for now, too weak and his post moves are pretty basic. But we need to use his mobility and height a lot more in pick and rolls with him getting the ball on the move and finishing inside instead of always going for the pick and pop or just have him spot up in the corner. Unfortunately we really lack perimeter players who can run the pick and roll well, Grant might well be the worst PG in the league at this.

This basically defines why Bamba is jacking up so many 3-balls; he has no post game.

..

[tiderulz]

I will not put too much hope in FA especially because it's naive to think players this year , especially PG won't get overpayed.

So many bad teams without PG have lot of many and no PG .

And given how FA in nba works ( players flat out re-sign within first hour before ever hitting market ) , free agency will turn into bidding war of lot of teams for few good players.

are there really THAT many teams without a PG?

Magic, Suns, Minny, Detroit, Bulls, Bucks (Brogdon,Bledsoe FAs ), Hornets ( Kemba FA), Jazz ( unless they will start Exum and let Rubio go ).
There are teams like Spurs, Pelicans that might look to upgrade PG spot as well.

That's 1/3 of the league right there lol

Minny has Teague and Jones. Detroit still has Jackson until they make a move. Bucks have 2 PG's. Charlotte looking to re-sign Kemba. Chicago is liking how Dunn is improving.

So really, Magic and Suns are only teams off your list that have to make a move on a PG.

[pepe1991]

are there really THAT many teams without a PG?

Magic, Suns, Minny, Detroit, Bulls, Bucks (Brogdon,Bledsoe FAs ), Hornets ( Kemba FA), Jazz ( unless they will start Exum and let Rubio go ).
There are teams like Spurs, Pelicans that might look to upgrade PG spot as well.

That's 1/3 of the league right there lol

Minny has Teague and Jones. Detroit still has Jackson until they make a move. Bucks have 2 PG's. Charlotte looking to re-sign Kemba. Chicago is liking how Dunn is improving.

So really, Magic and Suns are only teams off your list that have to make a move on a PG.

Suns are team in clear need to for PG, but Magic with DJ fall in same category with teams below:

Bucks ( Hill over a hill, other two guys FAs)
Pelicans ( starting Elfrid Payton ,who is FA anyway)
Jazz ( starting PG is UFA)
Minny ( Teague has player option, can become FA, Jones lowkey sucks)
Hornets ( starting PG is FA)
Detroit ( Jackson isn't great but they don't have money to do much )
Bulls ( lot of Bulls fans think he is backup, not starting level player )
Pacers ( Collison, Joseph UFA)

Will Knicks have interest in PGs? Maybe? They have Burke, Mudiay and Frank but all 3 of them blow. Burke is FA anyway.

[BadMofoPimp]

Magic should just sign Elf next summer now that he has cut his hair, all of a sudden he can score and play better defense.

[Catledge]

Bamba needs to stop chucking 3s and start being around the rim. We saw OKC do this this Domantas - had him shoot a bunch of 3s, and then Indiana moved him closer and he turned into an ultra productive bench player. He's in love with the 3 even though it's hurting him as a player. He's not in position to get o-rebounds, be a cutter, etc.

How exactly is not shooting threes going to make him better? A lot of people made the same argument for why Vooch shouldn't try to add a 3 to his game, and those people look a little silly now...

[J the Drafter]

Magic should just sign Elf next summer now that he has cut his hair, all of a sudden he can score and play better defense.

I was going to bring him up, though it seems clear to me that his defense and shooting were both improving before his knee started hurting. The Pelicans seem to be happy with him.