2018-19 Offseason Thread

[Skin Blues]

Richard is kinda interesting. He has a good sinker/slider and if he leans on those even more, especially against RHH, he could be a decent starter. He's stopped throwing his garbage 4-seam and curve/cutter which is a start. Upside is limited since he's at best gonna fetch a small return at the trade deadline, but for what it costs, it works. Not like we're overflowing with starting depth.

[BigLeagueChew]

“We’ll continue to consider any opportunities to move players potentially off of our roster. It’s not something we are proactively looking to do, but we do have a great number of players that other teams are interested in,” Atkins said. He also specifically noted that catcher Russell Martin is “interesting to a lot of teams.”

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Atkins said the two veteran hurlers will likely be used in the rotation if physically able, though he stopped short of fully confirming that usage, noting that “both guys have the potential to start,” and “I do think there could be a scenario where either one of them or potentially both could be used in a (different) role.”

talking about Shoemaker and Richard

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-still-seeking-pitching-defence-off-season-unfolds/

[Hoopstarr]

Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard!! So pumped.

[Schad]

I'm just happy that we're embracing the awful this season rather than making another silly attempt to keep our attendances up. Much rather Shoemaker and Richard than throwing significant money at an older starter.

[So_Fresh]

I'm happy too! I get to save some money. Not going to any of their games in 2019.

[Mohanad]

What the hell are the Jays doing, exactly?

[Schad]

What the hell are the Jays doing, exactly?

Rebuilding. We had an extremely old squad, with a bunch of our in-prime players approaching free agency. We threw all of our resources at a period of competitiveness, and that period has been over for a couple years. Now we have a generation of really good young players on the way, but it'll be a couple years before most are capable major leaguers. This ought to have been done at least a year earlier, but we had to put on a show of trying to be good even if the odds were stacked against it, because attendance had been solid.

Players like Shoemaker and Richard are cheap stop-gaps that occupy rotation spots for a year or two, allowing us to eat some innings, potentially recoup a (tiny) amount of prospect capital if they succeed, and most importantly won't be eating payroll when we're ready to compete again.

The only disappointment with the current tack is that we have not yet been able to cash in on any of our mid-career players yet.

[wamco]

I expected a lot more trades

[dagger]

I expected a lot more trades

I suspect we're not done. The free agency market is largely frozen pending decisions by the big names, and when it unthaws, you will find some teams will explore trades to fill gaps when confronted with the cost of veteran free agents or lack of decent choice at a position of need. For some organizations, it's a lot cheaper to deal for a controllable asset using prospect capital rather than paying millions on a free agent gamble.

[polo007]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25653903/why-baseball-world-waiting-manny-bryce

6. Marcus Stroman illustrates, the trade market isn't exactly bustling right now. Multiple sources said the prospects of the Toronto Blue Jays moving Stroman have decreased in recent weeks. Interested teams simply aren't offering packages commensurate with what the Blue Jays believe Stroman's value to be, basing it off the expectation that he'll return to 2017 form after a disastrous 2018. While his peripherals were far better than his 5.54 ERA -- Stroman, a ground ball artist, played in front of one of the worst defensive infields in baseball -- the step back left him in a place no team wants when taking offers on a player: near his nadir in value.

[Tanner]

The rebuild isn’t even going to last beyond this season. Rogers is impatient and all the team’s best prospects in the upper minors are coming up this year or maybe April of 2020 (Bo) and we have like zero money committed in 2020 depending on how Rogers is counting Tulo’s money on their books.

If we don’t spend money on real improvements next winter I’d be pretty disappointed.

[Schad]

The rebuild isn’t even going to last beyond this season. Rogers is impatient and all the team’s best prospects in the upper minors are coming up this year or maybe April of 2020 (Bo) and we have like zero money committed in 2020 depending on how Rogers is counting Tulo’s money on their books.

If we don’t spend money on real improvements next winter I’d be pretty disappointed.

I won't be. Having zero money committed comes with the downside that, beyond our prospects, we have pretty much zero talent committed to 2020 and beyond. I mean it: the most productive Jays in 2018 who are under team control beyond 2020 are, in order, Danny Jansen, Sam Gavilgio, Lourdes Gurriel and Ryan Tepera. We literally do not have an established core.

Sure, we'll probably start adding players back. But we aren't going to turn into a competitive team by throwing money at free agents. This is going to be an extended process.

[BigLeagueChew]

if i've learned anything from Schad about building teams rushing a rebuild or accelerating it is probably a bad idea, I am so down for an extended process rather than just making the playoffs and going through the downfall afterwards that we're going through now.

[wamco]

Atkins doesn’t blow me away as overly creative so far in his regime. Risk adverse, high floor boring moves.

[dagger]

Atkins doesn’t blow me away as overly creative so far in his regime. Risk adverse, high floor boring moves.

What kind of high risk moves would impress you. Signing a 35 year old? Trading Guerrero Jr for a 32 year old vet? There is a time in the cycle when patience is the greatest virtue - along with good talent analysis and development. Creative risk taking is best saved for when the team is close to real contention, and needs to max out its assets more quickly to keep the momentum going. That's when it might make sense to make a bold signing or trade.

[wamco]

Neither of the above

[Schad]

I share that critique as it pertains to acquiring prospects. We've focused too heavily on guys who are close to the majors, at the expense of chasing riskier but higher-upside talent. If one believes (as I do) that we're two years away from being two years away, getting a guy in A-ball is not a problem; they'll arrive after the first wave, if they arrive, but that has benefits (namely, they'll still be pre-arb and cheap when the first waves starts to get expensive).

[wamco]

I don’t have faith in any of the high minor arms traded for . Or srf or panonne for that matter

[Tanner]

The roster by the end of 2019/start of 2020 will be very different. I don’t know how you can say this is a “two years away from being two years away” situation. This team without any major Fa adds is probably a .500 team by 2020. With some additions (and luck) they could be better than that.

Atkins focusing on near term guys because players on the fringes of another team’s 40 man are going to be easier to get for less but also because the rebuild won’t be lasting long. Generational talent in Vlad, another 60 FV in Bo, and a bunch of others coming up around the same time. This ain’t a Bruno rebuild.

[Schad]

The roster by the end of 2019/start of 2020 will be very different. I don’t know how you can say this is a “two years away from being two years away” situation. This team without any major Fa adds is probably a .500 team by 2020. With some additions (and luck) they could be better than that.

You're seriously overestimating how much of a difference a couple elite prospects and some average ones will make. Our farm system is very good; no farm system is going to suddenly spit out a .500 team within two seasons. Being .500 takes somewhere in the range of 35 fWAR, more in the AL East. No matter how good Vlad and Bo are, they plus a handful on non-major FAs aren't going to be the difference between where we are now and that, especially as we'll be losing relatively productive players along the way.

Getting to .500 is actually pretty tough. It's not just something that happens because you have a couple really good players, especially with our competition. Surely after two seasons where we've been toooooootally sure we were at least a .500 team only to finish 10 and 16 games below would hammer that home (and in both years, our expected record was actually quite a bit worse).