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Bradley Beal - Part III

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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#861 » by DCZards » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:26 pm

Ruzious wrote:I'll be honest - that's the way I look at it. He's doing great, but... I wouldn't miss the glum face when he's on the bench, the me first attitude when he got frustrated by Kemba Walker that earned him a technical foul - and refusing to listen to Ariza's lecture, the falling on his arse so often that the refs ignore it, and missing so many open 3's. He will likely never have more trade value than he has now.


Stupid tech by Beal. Love his passion though. I guess you didn't see Ariza and Beal kiss and make up while Kemba was shooting the technical.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#862 » by payitforward » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:07 pm

Beal brought it on both ends of the court last year & the year before. He's a good player. But, this business of pointing to the things that improve (3pt% has gone up recently) as if they mean he's improving as a player is silly. Guess what, his 2pt.% has gone down recently. Nobody mentions that....

Brad is playing at almost exactly the same level he did last year. Stack up the numbers for the 2 years, they're at almost exactly the same height. & neither is as good as 2016-7.

When he has another year as good as 2016-17 again, then we can say that he's at a higher level than he is now.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#863 » by DCZards » Tue Jan 1, 2019 6:33 am

payitforward wrote:Beal brought it on both ends of the court last year & the year before. He's a good player. But, this business of pointing to the things that improve (3pt% has gone up recently) as if they mean he's improving as a player is silly. Guess what, his 2pt.% has gone down recently. Nobody mentions that....

Brad is playing at almost exactly the same level he did last year. Stack up the numbers for the 2 years, they're at almost exactly the same height. & neither is as good as 2016-7.

When he has another year as good as 2016-17 again, then we can say that he's at a higher level than he is now.


When I look at Beal's per 36 #s this year and compare them to 2016-17, I see a lower FG% (primarily because of his poor 3pt % shooting because his 2pt % is higher than in 2016-17)) and a lower FT%. But I also see a significant improvement in assists and rebounds. And, on the court, I see a player who has continued to improve his ability to get to the rim and score through contact.

Put those things together and I'd argue that Beal is a better basketball player this season than he was in 2016-17...despite the lower #s in some areas.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#864 » by payitforward » Tue Jan 1, 2019 11:07 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Beal brought it on both ends of the court last year & the year before. He's a good player. But, this business of pointing to the things that improve (3pt% has gone up recently) as if they mean he's improving as a player is silly. Guess what, his 2pt.% has gone down recently. Nobody mentions that....

Brad is playing at almost exactly the same level he did last year. Stack up the numbers for the 2 years, they're at almost exactly the same height. & neither is as good as 2016-7.

When he has another year as good as 2016-17 again, then we can say that he's at a higher level than he is now.


When I look at Beal's per 36 #s this year and compare them to 2016-17, I see a lower FG% (primarily because of his poor 3pt % shooting because his 2pt % is higher than in 2016-17)) and a lower FT%. But I also see a significant improvement in assists and rebounds. And, on the court, I see a player who has continued to improve his ability to get to the rim and score through contact.

Put those things together and I'd argue that Beal is a better basketball player this season than he was in 2016-17...despite the lower #s in some areas.

Just as Brad's rebounds & assists are up -- & so are his blocks; steals are slightly up as well -- it is also true that his turnovers are up & so are his fouls. If the things that are better work as indications that he's "a better basketball player," then the things that aren't as good as they were have to also be counted as indications in the opposite directions. That said, except for scoring, Bradley Beal is certainly putting up a little better numbers overall this year than he was in 2016-17.

That was true last year as well. In fact, overall in everything but scoring he's the same this year as last year, & both years are better in all that stuff than his overall best year of 2016-17.

But, his scoring efficiency is down. &, again, if you think what's gotten better should be taken into account, then what's gotten less good also has to be taken into account. Overall, 2016-17 remains Brad's best year as a pro. &, because it's a single year, it's an outlier. When he does it again, we can judge him to have become, overall, a better player.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#865 » by Wizardspride » Wed Jan 2, 2019 12:27 am

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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#866 » by nate33 » Sat Jan 5, 2019 3:19 pm

What are the chances that Bradley Beal makes the All Star Game?

Usually, really bad teams don't send players to the ASG unless it's a very hyped superstar like Kobe or Melo. But the East is really kinda weird this year. It has 4 actively tanking teams. It has 2 more egalitarian teams with no stars (Brooklyn and Miami). And one of the top teams (Boston) has just one guy producing star numbers. So effectively, the other 11 All Stars are being picked from just 8 teams.

Thinking it through, I've come up with this:

DEFINITELY IN: These guys are putting up great numbers on playoff caliber teams
Giannis
Kawhi
Kyrie
Embiid
Simmons
Oladipo (he missed 11 games but I can't see him being omitted)
Kemba
Griffin

DEBATABLE:
Butler (does Philly get 3 guys? Butler's numbers haven't been THAT good)
Drummond (does Detroit get 2 guys?)
Beal (does Washington deserve to send anyone?)
Middleton (18/6/4 with a TS% of .575, pretty solid but doesn't blow you away)
Lowry (missed 9 games. Averaging just 14 points)
Vucevic (20 and 12, but plays no D and Orlando is bad)
Bledsoe (15/5/5 with a TS% of .584, is that an All Star?)
Turner (effective player on a top team, but lackluster stats)
Siakam (effective player on a top team, but lackluster stats)

Am I missing anyone? Tatum is averaging 16/6 with a TS% of 55. Statistically, the 2nd best guy on Boston is Marcus Morris who is averaging 15/6 with a TS% of 63. I can't see him making it. D'Angelo Russell is putting up 18 and 6, but at a TS% of .510.

If we assume Butler and Drummond are in, then we have:
Guards: Kyrie, Oladipo, Kemba, Simmons
Forwards: Giannis, Kawhi, Griffin, Butler
Centers: Embiid, Drummond

That leaves 2 openings. I think Beal will make it. The man is averaging 24/5/5 on a TS% of .567 and hasn't missed a game. It's hard to see a guy like Bledsoe or Lowry jumping in front of him while averaging just 14-15 points, even if they're playing on a much better team.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#867 » by Halcyon » Sat Jan 5, 2019 7:06 pm

I feel like Lowry makes it, since he's playing for a top team and is averaging almost 10 assists a game.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#868 » by nate33 » Sat Jan 5, 2019 9:08 pm

Halcyon wrote:I feel like Lowry makes it, since he's playing for a top team and is averaging almost 10 assists a game.

He's missed 10 games though, and Toronto is 6-4 without him.

I think if the decision was made today, you'd have to take Beal over him. Lowry has missed 25% of his team's games.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#869 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:39 pm

Beal is currently leading the league in total minutes. He's 3rd in minutes per game behind Davis and Harden, but both guys have missed 5 games. Very impressive for a guy that had trouble staying healthy in his first four years.

Brooks is going to have to find a way to get him some rest.

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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#870 » by DCZards » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:40 pm

I noticed these minute #s a few days ago. Beal is playing way too many minutes, and, while he’s been durable, I fear a potential physical breakdown.

Without Wall, Bradley is essentially the only Zard who is truly capable of putting pressure on opposing defenses off the dribble and creating shots for himself and teammates.

What the Wizards need is another guard with playmaking abilities and the ability to get to the rim for easy shots. Kinda like what Dennis Schroeder has brought to OKC’s bench.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#871 » by 80sballboy » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:30 pm

I think he's worth the max now
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#872 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:13 am

80sballboy wrote:
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It's pretty insane that 40 year old Jordan had that many 40 point games.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#873 » by queridiculo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:35 pm

If you ever get bored, the NBA stats page has some pretty comprehensive shot tracking, including videos of just about everybody miss and make by a player.

Here's Bradley Beal for the 2018/19 season so far.

https://stats.nba.com/events/?flag=3&CFID=&CFPARAMS=&PlayerID=203078&TeamID=1610612764&Season=2018-19&sct=plot
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#874 » by 80sballboy » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:51 pm

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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#875 » by Dat2U » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:59 pm

nate33 wrote:What are the chances that Bradley Beal makes the All Star Game?

Usually, really bad teams don't send players to the ASG unless it's a very hyped superstar like Kobe or Melo. But the East is really kinda weird this year. It has 4 actively tanking teams. It has 2 more egalitarian teams with no stars (Brooklyn and Miami). And one of the top teams (Boston) has just one guy producing star numbers. So effectively, the other 11 All Stars are being picked from just 8 teams.

Thinking it through, I've come up with this:

DEFINITELY IN: These guys are putting up great numbers on playoff caliber teams
Giannis
Kawhi
Kyrie
Embiid
Simmons
Oladipo (he missed 11 games but I can't see him being omitted)
Kemba
Griffin

DEBATABLE:
Butler (does Philly get 3 guys? Butler's numbers haven't been THAT good)
Drummond (does Detroit get 2 guys?)
Beal (does Washington deserve to send anyone?)
Middleton (18/6/4 with a TS% of .575, pretty solid but doesn't blow you away)
Lowry (missed 9 games. Averaging just 14 points)
Vucevic (20 and 12, but plays no D and Orlando is bad)
Bledsoe (15/5/5 with a TS% of .584, is that an All Star?)
Turner (effective player on a top team, but lackluster stats)
Siakam (effective player on a top team, but lackluster stats)

Am I missing anyone? Tatum is averaging 16/6 with a TS% of 55. Statistically, the 2nd best guy on Boston is Marcus Morris who is averaging 15/6 with a TS% of 63. I can't see him making it. D'Angelo Russell is putting up 18 and 6, but at a TS% of .510.

If we assume Butler and Drummond are in, then we have:
Guards: Kyrie, Oladipo, Kemba, Simmons
Forwards: Giannis, Kawhi, Griffin, Butler
Centers: Embiid, Drummond

That leaves 2 openings. I think Beal will make it. The man is averaging 24/5/5 on a TS% of .567 and hasn't missed a game. It's hard to see a guy like Bledsoe or Lowry jumping in front of him while averaging just 14-15 points, even if they're playing on a much better team.


Well the mother stat of all stats, Wins Produced per 48 says no. Here's a list of guards in the East outperforming Beal right now according to WP48

Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Malcolm Brogdon
Eric Bledsoe
Darren Collison
Marcus Smart
T.J. McConnell
D.J. Augustin
TOMAS SATORANSKY
Sterling Brown
Delon Wright
Jeremy Lin
Ryan Arcidiacono
Joe Harris
Cory Joseph
Jeremy Lamb
Danny Green
Tony Snell
Victor Oladipo
Kemba Walker
Fred VanVleet

Beal is the 24th best guard in the East. A nice player. Nothing close to an all-star. Not even the best guard on the Wizards. Maybe if he rebounded better and wasted less possessions. :D
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#876 » by 80sballboy » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:21 pm

Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:What are the chances that Bradley Beal makes the All Star Game?

Usually, really bad teams don't send players to the ASG unless it's a very hyped superstar like Kobe or Melo. But the East is really kinda weird this year. It has 4 actively tanking teams. It has 2 more egalitarian teams with no stars (Brooklyn and Miami). And one of the top teams (Boston) has just one guy producing star numbers. So effectively, the other 11 All Stars are being picked from just 8 teams.

Thinking it through, I've come up with this:

DEFINITELY IN: These guys are putting up great numbers on playoff caliber teams
Giannis
Kawhi
Kyrie
Embiid
Simmons
Oladipo (he missed 11 games but I can't see him being omitted)
Kemba
Griffin

DEBATABLE:
Butler (does Philly get 3 guys? Butler's numbers haven't been THAT good)
Drummond (does Detroit get 2 guys?)
Beal (does Washington deserve to send anyone?)
Middleton (18/6/4 with a TS% of .575, pretty solid but doesn't blow you away)
Lowry (missed 9 games. Averaging just 14 points)
Vucevic (20 and 12, but plays no D and Orlando is bad)
Bledsoe (15/5/5 with a TS% of .584, is that an All Star?)
Turner (effective player on a top team, but lackluster stats)
Siakam (effective player on a top team, but lackluster stats)

Am I missing anyone? Tatum is averaging 16/6 with a TS% of 55. Statistically, the 2nd best guy on Boston is Marcus Morris who is averaging 15/6 with a TS% of 63. I can't see him making it. D'Angelo Russell is putting up 18 and 6, but at a TS% of .510.

If we assume Butler and Drummond are in, then we have:
Guards: Kyrie, Oladipo, Kemba, Simmons
Forwards: Giannis, Kawhi, Griffin, Butler
Centers: Embiid, Drummond

That leaves 2 openings. I think Beal will make it. The man is averaging 24/5/5 on a TS% of .567 and hasn't missed a game. It's hard to see a guy like Bledsoe or Lowry jumping in front of him while averaging just 14-15 points, even if they're playing on a much better team.


Well the mother stat of all stats, Wins Produced per 48 says no. Here's a list of guards in the East outperforming Beal right now according to WP48

Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Malcolm Brogdon
Eric Bledsoe
Darren Collison
Marcus Smart
T.J. McConnell
D.J. Augustin
TOMAS SATORANSKY
Sterling Brown
Delon Wright
Jeremy Lin
Ryan Arcidiacono
Joe Harris
Cory Joseph
Jeremy Lamb
Danny Green
Tony Snell
Victor Oladipo
Kemba Walker
Fred VanVleet

Beal is the 24th best guard in the East. A nice player. Nothing close to an all-star. Not even the best guard on the Wizards. Maybe if he rebounded better and wasted less possessions. :D


:D Didn’t realize you hated Beal that much. I’m sure I would take Danny Green and Joe Harris over Beal. How about those stats in the last month?
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#877 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:30 pm

Here's a list of Washington Wizards/Bullets players who have averaged 25 points, 5 assists and 5 boards in a single season:

Spoiler:
There aren't any


So far, Beal is averaging 24.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists. I think it's a good bet that Beal will finish with 25+ points and 5+ assists now that Wall is out for the remainder of the season. It's the rebounding that might be close.
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#878 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:31 pm

Dat2U wrote:Well the mother stat of all stats, Wins Produced per 48 says no. Here's a list of guards in the East outperforming Beal right now according to WP48

Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Malcolm Brogdon
Eric Bledsoe
Darren Collison
Marcus Smart
T.J. McConnell
D.J. Augustin
TOMAS SATORANSKY
Sterling Brown
Delon Wright
Jeremy Lin
Ryan Arcidiacono
Joe Harris
Cory Joseph
Jeremy Lamb
Danny Green
Tony Snell
Victor Oladipo
Kemba Walker
Fred VanVleet

Beal is the 24th best guard in the East. A nice player. Nothing close to an all-star. Not even the best guard on the Wizards. Maybe if he rebounded better and wasted less possessions. :D

I can't believe I didn't factor Ryan Arcidiacono in my analysis! What was I thinking?
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#879 » by JWizmentality » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:46 pm

nate33 wrote:
80sballboy wrote:
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It's pretty insane that 40 year old Jordan had that many 40 point games.



Arenas. :cry:
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Re: Bradley Beal - Part III 

Post#880 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:50 pm

JWizmentality wrote:
nate33 wrote:
80sballboy wrote:
Read on Twitter

It's pretty insane that 40 year old Jordan had that many 40 point games.



Arenas. :cry:

Imagine an Arenas/Beal backcourt! :o

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