The barea affect and ROY, who wins?

[SlovenianDragon]

Barea was having one of his best seasons ever in Dallas before he got injured. His per 36 this season was 20/10

To put that more into perspective he is tied for 2nd in assists only behind Westbrook in per 48.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avg48Assists

That means in his just 20 minutes he played on the court each night he made a HUGE impact.

Now with his loss...(sorry man u were killin it) where does that leave the suns and the mavs?

If post all start break we start streaking after one of the hardest schedules to start and the mavs start dropping games with the loss of Barea....HYPOTHETICALLY if we end with the better record and Ayton and Doncic both keep up their level of play who wins?

[suns12345]

You might be right about it affecting the ROY race and certainly the quality of your team and record helps your chances. However, in general we are getting way too caught up in this ROY discussion. It just doesn't matter IMO.

Looking at the last 14 drafts (since the Lebron draft), i'd say nearly half of the ROY winners weren't the best player in that draft, and a few have turned out to be busts. So lets not get caught up in thinking that if Doncic wins ROY we made the wrong pick, and equally lets not think that DOncic isn't going to be a great NBA player. (Also, Barea is a stud! dunno how has been so good for so long given his size and limitations)

2004–05 Emeka Okafor
2005–06 Chris Paul
2006–07 Brandon Roy
2007–08 Kevin Durant
2008–09 Derrick Rose
2009–10 Tyreke Evans
2010–11 Blake Griffin
2011–12 Kyrie Irving
2012–13 Damian Lillard
2013–14 Michael Carter-Williams
2014–15 Andrew Wiggins
2015–16 Karl-Anthony Towns
2016–17 Malcolm Brogdon
2017–18 Ben Simmons

[lilfishi22]

I always felt team role and individual production was more important in the ROY race than team wins. If you have a big role on the team and you put up numbers, that usually puts you in the conversation. Of course team wins is a factor too but most teams with a ROY level player is generally a bad one so team wins generally isn't a major factor.

I don't pay much attention to the ROY race though. It's not like winning it necessarily makes you a star. It just means, well done on transitioning to the NBA from wherever you came up from. Year 1 is to show that you belong but year 2 and 3 is where the real work comes in to prove that you can do more than just stick around if you're a projected star level player.

Not that it matters but I think it's Doncic's to lose. He has the highlights, the fan friendly style, the swag, the clutch plays and the bigger role to take it rather convincingly. If the records were switched, the odds might even out a bit more but imo Ayton has to do better than average 16/10 which just doesn't pop when looking at box score. I say this because I'd argue most voters (sportwriters/broadcasters) don't really look that deeply into impact and advance stats and judges based on production (raw production), highlight plays and the narrative. Based on that, Doncic has all 3. Ayton will have to put up some MONSTER numbers in the second half of the season, put a couple more people on posters and we'll have to go on a bit of a run in order for him to have a chance. I think that's gonna be tough unless we upgrade the PG position

[Texas Chuck]

As the board's only Barea stan I appreciate the shout out.

I think lilfishi nailed with Luka's style being so appealing that the perception will be he is having a clearly better year than Ayton when by the time the season is done I think they will have both had really impressive rookie years.

I think JJ getting hurt probably hurts rather than helps Ayton tho. Because Dallas had two players who could create offense and now they only have one. And so I think Dallas will struggle to score when Doncic sits leading people to credit Luka more. Especially if we are really going to deal DSJ. Plus Luka will have the ball now all the time when he's on the court instead of playing some off ball to accommodate Barea.

Also, stop beating us all the time. Thanks.

[Biff]

I'm sorry but Ayton doesn't have a chance. The Mavs have a much better record and Doncic is clearly their best player. Doncic is going to be a unanimous ROY selection. Any other year and Ayton would be in the running.

[Revived]

Doncic won this like weeks ago. He’s literally the talk of the NBA.

Everyone from Charles Barkley (ouch) to Shaq to Steve Nash to LeBron to Durant to Curry etc are all in his corner.

The better question is who comes in at #2 and there’s actually valid discussion to be had because of how well Ayton’s played lately and JJJr seems to have faltered some.

[bigfoot]

RIght now Doncic is just head and shoulders above Ayton on the offensive side of the ball. That's to be expected because they play a different role with Luka being a primary facilitator and Ayton facilitating by setting screens. It is unfortunate that the dirty work done by bigs for the benefit of ball handlers goes unrecognized in the box score and media. Historically Ayton is not alone in this situation when looking at past ROY winners ...

Lillard over Anthony Davis
Carter-Williams over Giannis/Gobert/Adams
Wiggins over Jokic/Nurkic
Tyreke Evans over Cousins

Bigs taking longer to develop is unfortunate for the ROY contest. It's about a 1:5 ration of big men to wings/pg in the winner of the ROY race.

No doubt, Ayton is going to be very good and probably the best Suns player ever. But, Doncic is clearly leading by a wide margin for ROY and I expect he will be an all-star / all-NBA player for a good chunk of his career.

[spanishninja]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

[bwgood77]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

I didn't watch, but I did see a twitter clip of him making an amazing shot off an inbounds with like a second on the clock or so I think.

And he ended up with 25/8/8. His numbers are probably overall better than LeBron's rookie season, so yeah, regardless, it's a very tall order for Ayton to have a chance.

But no real shame in that. He should almost certainly come in 2nd depending on voting criteria (JJJ having a great season depending on how you look at it...his defensive #s are impressive) but in many years Ayton would win it with ease...he's just up against a guy having a historic rookie year.

[lilfishi22]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

Team success has always been more of a multiplier rather than a key component in the ROY race imo ie winning isn't a pre-requisite for ROY but it helps your argument. If you have good stats on a winning team then team success multiplies the strength of that argument. Most rookies (even ROY candidates) don't end up making much of a difference on the team and if the team gets better, it's usually more the team collectively getting better (via roster upgrade or internal development) rather than them being the primary driver.

So I still don't see Mavs ending up with the same season record as us would change the odds much especially if Ayton keeps just kind of cruising (14/9 in Jan).

[lilfishi22]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

I didn't watch, but I did see a twitter clip of him making an amazing shot off an inbounds with like a second on the clock or so I think.

And he ended up with 25/8/8. His numbers are probably overall better than LeBron's rookie season, so yeah, regardless, it's a very tall order for Ayton to have a chance.

But no real shame in that. He should almost certainly come in 2nd depending on voting criteria (JJJ having a great season depending on how you look at it...his defensive #s are impressive) but in many years Ayton would win it with ease...he's just up against a guy having a historic rookie year.

Yeah kind of like John Wall's rookie season. In most seasons, 16/5/8 from a PG who only played one year of college ball should win it quite comfortably. He was super exciting as one of the fastest if the not the fastest player in the league and had a swag to him which fans were attracted to. It should have been his to lose. But it just so happens that Blake red-shirted his true rookie season and returned for his to post a historic 23/12/4 season average with the highlight reel and the comeback story. Same with Simmons and Mitchell. 20/4/4 should've given Mitchell the easy ROY win but Simmons happened to have a more historic 16/8/8 line and 12 triple doubles.

There's no shame in coming 2nd to those players

[spanishninja]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

Team success has always been more of a multiplier rather than a key component in the ROY race imo ie winning isn't a pre-requisite for ROY but it helps your argument. If you have good stats on a winning team then team success multiplies the strength of that argument. Most rookies (even ROY candidates) don't end up making much of a difference on the team and if the team gets better, it's usually more the team collectively getting better (via roster upgrade or internal development) rather than them being the primary driver.

So I still don't see Mavs ending up with the same season record as us would change the odds much especially if Ayton keeps just kind of cruising (14/9 in Jan).

yeah 14/9 wont get it done in any situation, but last month when Ayton was blowing it up they didnt give a **** about his stats at all, because Dallas was better at the time. it's honestly like WWE nowadays. the writers have a storyline to push and they will cite or ignore whatever stats they feel like to get their guy to the top.

i am just curious as to how bad Dallas would have to the press to fairly compare Doncic and Ayton.

[Revived]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

I don’t think the voters are gonna use Dec 13th as the cut off date to compare records for Ayton and Doncic. Yeah Doncic and the Mavs lost tonight by 4 to the Spurs while the Ayton and the Suns lost by 30 or 40 to the Pacers in their last game. Doncic had 25, 8 and 8 tonight while Ayton has 14 & 8 in his last one.

[Bob8]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

Team success has always been more of a multiplier rather than a key component in the ROY race imo ie winning isn't a pre-requisite for ROY but it helps your argument. If you have good stats on a winning team then team success multiplies the strength of that argument. Most rookies (even ROY candidates) don't end up making much of a difference on the team and if the team gets better, it's usually more the team collectively getting better (via roster upgrade or internal development) rather than them being the primary driver.

So I still don't see Mavs ending up with the same season record as us would change the odds much especially if Ayton keeps just kind of cruising (14/9 in Jan).

yeah 14/9 wont get it done in any situation, but last month when Ayton was blowing it up they didnt give a **** about his stats at all, because Dallas was better at the time. it's honestly like WWE nowadays. the writers have a storyline to push and they will cite or ignore whatever stats they feel like to get their guy to the top.

i am just curious as to how bad Dallas would have to the press to fairly compare Doncic and Ayton.

Yes Ayton had great December, but you’re forgetting that Luka had great December too.

Ayton, 17.6/11.8/1.8
Luka, 21.1/6.4/6.1

And in January we have,

Ayton, 14.3/9/1.4
Luka, 23.5/7.9/5.5; last 5 games, 27.4/7/6.4/1,6 stl

It looks to me the difference is not only in the writers heads. Luka is not playing only as clear ROY at the moment, but like All Star.

[SwingMan1938]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

On this subject wavelength, I'm *really* cringing watching Dirk Nowitzki play this year. The poor guy can barely even move. The head's still there, but the body is long gone.

In that sense, I'm glad this is his farewell tour.....

[Archx]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

Well they have a point lol. Watch last 5 mins of their last game vs SAS. He was literally playing alone. No one could make an open shot that he set them up for. I know it's not fair towards Ayton because he is also trying to do as much as he can, but you are wrong about the other guy ... He's starting to produce LBJ type numbers, it's insane what he is doing already. Listen to what Pop had to say about him as well.

[AtheJ415]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

Well they have a point lol. Watch last 5 mins of their last game vs SAS. He was literally playing alone. No one could make an open shot that he set them up for. I know it's not fair towards Ayton because he is also trying to do as much as he can, but you are wrong about the other guy ... He's starting to produce LBJ type numbers, it's insane what he is doing already. Listen to what Pop had to say about him as well.

This is true for Ayton and Book all year. Frankly it's a miracle Book has 7 assists per game. Our team has Warren shooting well from 3. The rest shoot a combined 32%. The only one with a history of shooting well is Bridges in college. Oubre is BEYOND overrated as a shooter right now, Jackson has always struggled from deep, Melton is working in a revamped shooting motion, Holmes doesn't shoot 3s, Crawford is too old to hit them regularly, Okobo shows promise but is not consistent from deep. We are the worst shooting team in basketball with only 3 bright spots, 2 of whom have been injured for huge periods of the year. The Suns suck because of everybody else. And Ayton's campaign would be a hell of a lot closer if people looked at the individuals outside of the team overall. Doncic has been better thus far, but they are close, and Ayton was playing better the first quarter of the year.

[Archx]

mavs lose again, and have a worse record than us since Dec 13. this keeps up and the team success argument will not be as strong anymore. instead, people will start saying "it's not Doncic's fault the team loses" while saying Ayton sucks because our team sucks.

they might actually have started doing this already.

Well they have a point lol. Watch last 5 mins of their last game vs SAS. He was literally playing alone. No one could make an open shot that he set them up for. I know it's not fair towards Ayton because he is also trying to do as much as he can, but you are wrong about the other guy ... He's starting to produce LBJ type numbers, it's insane what he is doing already. Listen to what Pop had to say about him as well.

This is true for Ayton and Book all year. Frankly it's a miracle Book has 7 assists per game. Our team has Warren shooting well from 3. The rest shoot a combined 32%. The only one with a history of shooting well is Bridges in college. Oubre is BEYOND overrated as a shooter right now, Jackson has always struggled from deep, Melton is working in a revamped shooting motion, Holmes doesn't shoot 3s, Crawford is too old to hit them regularly, Okobo shows promise but is not consistent from deep. We are the worst shooting team in basketball with only 3 bright spots, 2 of whom have been injured for huge periods of the year. The Suns suck because of everybody else. And Ayton's campaign would be a hell of a lot closer if people looked at the individuals outside of the team overall. Doncic has been better thus far, but they are close, and Ayton was playing better the first quarter of the year.

Excluding defense, Ayton played amazingly so far. He is incredibly efficient and you can rely on him to make an easy basket around the rim.
But even through all of that, the other guy still leap frogs him, which just tells you what kind of player LD is. He's literally carrying Mavs on his back while Ayton is unfortunately stuck with ISO Booker. Book is trying to be this all around guy but more often than not he actually hurts his team. And Ayton like i said, is caught up in all of this mess and a lot of times gets unfairly criticized.

And i like Oubre btw, without him Suns wouldn't have had so many wins. He energized otherwise very unefficient bench.

[spanishninja]

Well they have a point lol. Watch last 5 mins of their last game vs SAS. He was literally playing alone. No one could make an open shot that he set them up for. I know it's not fair towards Ayton because he is also trying to do as much as he can, but you are wrong about the other guy ... He's starting to produce LBJ type numbers, it's insane what he is doing already. Listen to what Pop had to say about him as well.

This is true for Ayton and Book all year. Frankly it's a miracle Book has 7 assists per game. Our team has Warren shooting well from 3. The rest shoot a combined 32%. The only one with a history of shooting well is Bridges in college. Oubre is BEYOND overrated as a shooter right now, Jackson has always struggled from deep, Melton is working in a revamped shooting motion, Holmes doesn't shoot 3s, Crawford is too old to hit them regularly, Okobo shows promise but is not consistent from deep. We are the worst shooting team in basketball with only 3 bright spots, 2 of whom have been injured for huge periods of the year. The Suns suck because of everybody else. And Ayton's campaign would be a hell of a lot closer if people looked at the individuals outside of the team overall. Doncic has been better thus far, but they are close, and Ayton was playing better the first quarter of the year.

Excluding defense, Ayton played amazingly so far. He is incredibly efficient and you can rely on him to make an easy basket around the rim.
But even through all of that, the other guy still leap frogs him, which just tells you what kind of player LD is. He's literally carrying Mavs on his back while Ayton is unfortunately stuck with ISO Booker. Book is trying to be this all around guy but more often than not he actually hurts his team. And Ayton like i said, is caught up in all of this mess and a lot of times gets unfairly criticized.

And i like Oubre btw, without him Suns wouldn't have had so many wins. He energized otherwise very unefficient bench.

eh, a lot of this is usage and the fact that Ayton's a big man, and big men don't initiate the offense in this league anymore. I don't know if under equal circumstances there would be a "leapfrog" situation.

[spanishninja]

Team success has always been more of a multiplier rather than a key component in the ROY race imo ie winning isn't a pre-requisite for ROY but it helps your argument. If you have good stats on a winning team then team success multiplies the strength of that argument. Most rookies (even ROY candidates) don't end up making much of a difference on the team and if the team gets better, it's usually more the team collectively getting better (via roster upgrade or internal development) rather than them being the primary driver.

So I still don't see Mavs ending up with the same season record as us would change the odds much especially if Ayton keeps just kind of cruising (14/9 in Jan).

yeah 14/9 wont get it done in any situation, but last month when Ayton was blowing it up they didnt give a **** about his stats at all, because Dallas was better at the time. it's honestly like WWE nowadays. the writers have a storyline to push and they will cite or ignore whatever stats they feel like to get their guy to the top.

i am just curious as to how bad Dallas would have to the press to fairly compare Doncic and Ayton.

Yes Ayton had great December, but you’re forgetting that Luka had great December too.

Ayton, 17.6/11.8/1.8
Luka, 21.1/6.4/6.1

And in January we have,

Ayton, 14.3/9/1.4
Luka, 23.5/7.9/5.5; last 5 games, 27.4/7/6.4/1,6 stl

It looks to me the difference is not only in the writers heads. Luka is not playing only as clear ROY at the moment, but like All Star.

I'd say that the december numbers are pretty damn comparable. But even then people were saying it wasn't even close. I'm ok with saying that Luka was clearly better, but not even close?