The Harper and Machado Thread

Black Watch · Post #1 » by **Black Watch** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:34 am

Just for the next couple of weeks (or until they sign), let's conduct a poll for the world not as it is but as it should be.

We all know Harper will be paid more, but shouldn't Machado be paid more?

Roughly the same career WAR between the two players and yet they couldn't be more different. I say Machado is the better player and should be paid more, on paper (I say 'on paper' because he gets himself in a lot of trouble).

Who would you rather sign if you ran a club?

vaff87 · Post #2 » by **vaff87** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:22 pm

Machado is slightly better. Neither guy is very likeable.

Fairview4Life · Post #3 » by **Fairview4Life** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:27 pm

Machado due to position probably.

phillipmike · Post #4 » by **phillipmike** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:18 pm

For any team the answer should be Machado on paper as he plays a harder position.

Regardless, i take Harper. With Machado's character concerns this isnt a player i want to build around and commit 300M+ and 10 years on.

Position has a lot to do with WAR (and Harper has a slightly higher WAR than Machado: 30.7 vs 30.2) and if Machado's defense is declining (cant play SS and his defense as 3B was declining before the move, got much better in LA) then i compare the bats;

Career Numbers:
Harper: 140 wRC+, .233 ISO, .382 wOBA, 0.70 BB/K
Machado: 120 wRC+, .204 ISO, .349 wOBA 0.44 BB/K

For the Jays i take Harper too. Have incredible depth on the infield in Vladdy, Bichette, Gurriel, Groshans, Biggio, Hiraldo, Martinez, Smith, Warmoth etc. and not so much in the OF. A lefty power bat playing the OF in front of Vladdy would be perfect.

So for me if i were building a team from scratch, had control of any team or had control of the Jays im taking Harper over Machado.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:39 pm

Machado. I don't love either's chances of aging gracefully, but suspect that Harper carries the greater risk of becoming an utter boat anchor at 31.

SharoneWright · Post #6 » by **SharoneWright** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:51 pm

I don't want to watch either of them not run out ground balls.

Skin Blues · Post #7 » by **Skin Blues** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:38 pm

SharoneWright wrote:I don't want to watch either of them not run out ground balls.

Harper didn't run 100% on a pop-up in a meaningless game. Every single superstar jogs on popups, as they should, to prevent injury. The only reason we ever heard about Harper doing it is because Papelbon choked him out in the dugout after Harper told him to f*** off. Machado jogged on a GIDP groundball in the World Series and admitted he doesn't want to hustle. Little bit of a false equivalence, there.

That said, Machado's superior defense makes me prefer him. Defensive metrics aren't perfect, but Harper was so bad in the OF last year that he may even be more valuable as a DH rather than letting him play the field. While Machado may not be a SS, he's a damn good third baseman. He's also more consistent than Harper. In 6 full seasons, Machado has been <5 fWAR only twice, and one of those he missed half the season with an injury. In 7 full seasons, Harper has put up <5 fWAR 6 times, and his only season >5 fWAR was 4 years ago.

manjusaka · Post #8 » by **manjusaka** » Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:20 pm

Probably Machado. But I’ll take 26 years old Tulo over 26 years old Machado. So the contract that Machado is demanding presents considerable risks for the interested teams.

Black Watch · Post #9 » by **Black Watch** » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:33 am

Skin Blues wrote:
SharoneWright wrote:I don't want to watch either of them not run out ground balls.

Harper didn't run 100% on a pop-up in a meaningless game. Every single superstar jogs on popups, as they should, to prevent injury. The only reason we ever heard about Harper doing it is because Papelbon choked him out in the dugout after Harper told him to f*** off. Machado jogged on a GIDP groundball in the World Series and admitted he doesn't want to hustle. Little bit of a false equivalence, there.

Not to mention that during the World Series Manny hit a fly ball off the wall but ended up at first base for a single--he admired his swing so much that he forgot to hustle down the line--can't see Harper doing that.

That said, Manny is clearly the better player, but his behaviour is unattractive. Check out this list of all his transgressions: https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/10/17/brief-history-of-manny-machado-acting-like-malcontent/

Skin Blues wrote:That said, Machado's superior defense makes me prefer him. Defensive metrics aren't perfect, but Harper was so bad in the OF last year that he may even be more valuable as a DH rather than letting him play the field. While Machado may not be a SS, he's a damn good third baseman. He's also more consistent than Harper. In 6 full seasons, Machado has been <5 fWAR only twice, and one of those he missed half the season with an injury. In 7 full seasons, Harper has put up <5 fWAR 6 times, and his only season >5 fWAR was 4 years ago.

Harper last year was one of the worst outfielders in baseball. If you go by OAA (Outs Above Average), he was -12, the fifth worst; DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), he was -26, the 2nd worst; UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), he was -14.4, the absolute worst.

There are two caveats, though. One, he didn't get slower. Harper is still in the same sixtieth to seventieth percentile sprint speed he's been in for the last few years (even post-knee surgery). Two, he did start positioning himself a lot deeper over the last couple years--12 more feet toward the wall. This points to the theory that he didn't want to get himself hurt in his contract year.

It's possible that his defense will rebound back to being average to below-average, which is not bad if he manages to hit the way he's capable of hitting.

No need to DH him just yet.

The_Hater · Post #10 » by **The_Hater** » Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:08 pm

Machado. Based on both his consistency and his defensive value.

Harper’s contract is going to be one of the worst ever signed. I don’t get why any team would want to meet anything close to Boras’ demands.

Black Watch · Post #11 » by **Black Watch** » Tue Jan 8, 2019 6:23 pm

Ben Lindbergh on Harper and Machado:

Watch on YouTube

Skin Blues · Post #12 » by **Skin Blues** » Wed Jan 9, 2019 2:41 pm

Seeing Ben Lindbergh talk normally like this on TV, makes me wonder why he is so intent on talking like a robot on his podcast. Makes it unlistenable.

As for Harper's defense... would be interesting if it was just an effort thing. Instead of injuring himself by diving and sliding, he shot himself in the foot by providing terrible defense. I suppose he could indicate to teams that he can be the defender he used to be. But he was just so bad.

Black Watch · Post #13 » by **Black Watch** » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:39 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Seeing Ben Lindbergh talk normally like this on TV, makes me wonder why he is so intent on talking like a robot on his podcast. Makes it unlistenable.

As for Harper's defense... would be interesting if it was just an effort thing. Instead of injuring himself by diving and sliding, he shot himself in the foot by providing terrible defense. I suppose he could indicate to teams that he can be the defender he used to be. But he was just so bad.

I still find Lindbergh robotic on television (he doubtless has Asperger's), but you're right that he's even worse on the podcast (that's why I never listen to it). You know who I think is the worst on television (and probably not much better on radio)... Bill James! He looks and talks like he has IBS. Must have been what James Thurber had in mind when he first wrote of Walter Mitty.

Yah, Harper last year was one of the worst outfielders in baseball (OAA -12, fifth worst; DRS -26, 2nd worst; UZR -14.4, the worst).

But, he didn't get any slower, still in the same sixtieth to seventieth percentile sprint speed he's been in for the last few years (even post-knee surgery). And he did start positioning himself a lot deeper over the last couple years--around 12 feet more toward the wall. This, as well as the fewer dives and slides in 2018, all point to the theory that he didn't want to get himself hurt in his contract year.

It's still very possible that his defense will rebound back to being average to below-average, which changes everything if he manages to hit the way he's capable of hitting.

Ado05 · Post #14 » by **Ado05** » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:31 am

Read on Twitter

It definitely does make sense, but Im gonna guess theres still no chance.

phillipmike · Post #15 » by **phillipmike** » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:18 am

It’s intriguing but likely won’t happen.

Harper gets to play in a hitter friendly division in between potentially a stud in Vlad and a star in Bichette. Put opt outs after year 4 or 5 and it could be a win-win for both sides. But big risk if Harper declines.

The_Hater · Post #16 » by **The_Hater** » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:35 pm

So Harper turned down $300/10 from the Nationals during the season, what does he end up sigining for?

polo007 · Post #17 » by **polo007** » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:56 pm

Read on Twitter

Ado05 · Post #18 » by **Ado05** » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:05 pm

Shocked that wasnt an offer that was instantly beat by someone else.

Natural11 · Post #19 » by **Natural11** » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:23 am

Adrian_05 wrote:Shocked that wasnt an offer that was instantly beat by someone else.

There are so many truly awful contracts in MLB that I think a lot of teams would rather just take their chances elsewhere than offer a 7 year mega deal. It seems like for every contract that's kinda worth it, there are four that become true boat anchors near the end.

SharoneWright · Post #20 » by **SharoneWright** » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:17 am

I'm sorry. I don't care who I might be. I'd never let a 175MILLION dollar offer sit for 2 weeks, while not get any other offer, and not jump on it! I don't care if I had to play in Chattanooga... I am contracted to receive 175MILLION dollars! My legs could get run over by a bus tomorrow. Lock it in.

Who is better: Harper or Machado?