2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[SecondTake]

five games ago the thunder defense was -7.2 pp100 relative to league average, which was 9th best all-time. after the last five games, that's gone up to -5.3 pp100 relative to league average, barely in the top 50 all-time.

being historically great is a difficult thing to maintain. the thunder are still an elite defense. but not being one of the best ever will make the problems on offense stand out a whole lot more.

They're not 'still' elite. Maybe if you're looking at the full season numbers, but the past few weeks have bee anything but elite. And this seems to be the new trend now.

[SecondTake]

last five games:



not only have the thunder starters been elite over this 1-4 stretch, they've been better than usual, and better than usual on defense. you can't ask for more from that unit.

but look at the four next most used lineups. they are getting stomped. these units all share a common thread: dennis schroder.

you can't blame 20+pp100 difference on one guy. but this has been a pattern all year long. the starters defense alone falls 13.4pp100 just swapping ferguson for schroder on the year. that is a kanter-esque defensive lineup split. during this 1-4 stretch, the thunder are +11.8pp100 with schroder off the court, and -22.8pp100 when he is on the court. yes, the bench sucks, especially without noel, but even the schroder + starters lineup is losing by double digits and there's just not much explanation for that.

he's not as bad as these numbers say, but i think schroder is developing into a lineup cancer nonetheless.

Interesting numbers... Surprised our starting 5 is that good considering how badly Adams keeps getting destroyed in the P&R.

Schroder has been bad on defense, but raises our offense substantially. Problem is more that the entire bench is pretty bad defensively and so you're trading Schroders offensive production for even worse team defense. Nader and Diallo are even worse than Schroder defensively. Pat isn't much better. Schroder is worth it for his offensive production, but you need some defenders around him. you can't surround him with guys that play no defense and no offense either. Once Noel is back that bench defense should improve.

[slick_watts]

Interesting numbers... Surprised our starting 5 is that good considering how badly Adams keeps getting destroyed in the P&R.

you don't know what you're talking about. our pnr defense with the starters is excellent and has been mostly excellent this 1-4 stretch. when you pick out the plays where the other teams score and make a blanket statement of course it's surprising.

Schroder has been bad on defense, but raises our offense substantially

no he doesn't. the starters with schroder instead of ferguson are only marginally superior.

Problem is more that the entire bench is pretty bad defensively and so you're trading Schroders offensive production for even worse team defense. Nader and Diallo are even worse than Schroder defensively. Pat isn't much better. Schroder is worth it for his offensive production, but you need some defenders around him. you can't surround him with guys that play no defense and no offense either. Once Noel is back that bench defense should improve.

the bench defense sucks with noel, and the bench offense sucks too with schroder leading it. in minutes schroder has played without westbrook in games he comes off the bench, the thunder offense is WORSE than last year when felton has played under the same conditions. our bench offense is worse than last year.

[Pillendreher]

last five games:



not only have the thunder starters been elite over this 1-4 stretch, they've been better than usual, and better than usual on defense. you can't ask for more from that unit.

but look at the four next most used lineups. they are getting stomped. these units all share a common thread: dennis schroder.

you can't blame 20+pp100 difference on one guy. but this has been a pattern all year long. the starters defense alone falls 13.4pp100 just swapping ferguson for schroder on the year. that is a kanter-esque defensive lineup split. during this 1-4 stretch, the thunder are +11.8pp100 with schroder off the court, and -22.8pp100 when he is on the court. yes, the bench sucks, especially without noel, but even the schroder + starters lineup is losing by double digits and there's just not much explanation for that.

he's not as bad as these numbers say, but i think schroder is developing into a lineup cancer nonetheless.

This is very problematic. Westbrook-George-Adams without Schröder has been responsible for ~37 % of our defensive possessions and has allowed 93.3 points per 100 possessions. For the other 63 % of our defensive possessions, opposing teams have scored 139.1 points per 100 possessions.

[SecondTake]

Interesting numbers... Surprised our starting 5 is that good considering how badly Adams keeps getting destroyed in the P&R.

you don't know what you're talking about. our pnr defense with the starters is excellent and has been mostly excellent this 1-4 stretch. when you pick out the plays where the other teams score and make a blanket statement of course it's surprising.

Schroder has been bad on defense, but raises our offense substantially

no he doesn't. the starters with schroder instead of ferguson are only marginally superior.

Problem is more that the entire bench is pretty bad defensively and so you're trading Schroders offensive production for even worse team defense. Nader and Diallo are even worse than Schroder defensively. Pat isn't much better. Schroder is worth it for his offensive production, but you need some defenders around him. you can't surround him with guys that play no defense and no offense either. Once Noel is back that bench defense should improve.

the bench defense sucks with noel, and the bench offense sucks too with schroder leading it. in minutes schroder has played without westbrook in games he comes off the bench, the thunder offense is WORSE than last year when felton has played under the same conditions. our bench offense is worse than last year.

How does the bench defense suck with Noel? Last time I checked he improved it quite a bit when on court. What's the overall numbers now?

7 pp100 isn't really just "marginally" better, 117 would make us the best offense in the league for a season instead of #12 with TFergs numbers of that stretch you mentioned extended through the season. Schroder elevates the offense substantially over that stretch. Obviously the defense is horrendous, which is another matter.

Last night he seemed to be trying on defense, fighting through screens and sticking to his man and it still wasn't enough. The entire team seemed to mail it in yesterday on the defensive end. Schroder has been playing the same number of minutes since the start of the season, but our defense really only started taking a dive the past few weeks so I can't really subscribe to Schroder being fully incapable.

[Pillendreher]

7 pp100 isn't really just "marginally" better, 117 would make us the best offense in the league for a season instead of #12 with TFergs numbers of that stretch you mentioned extended through the season. Schroder elevates the offense substantially over that stretch. Obviously the defense is horrendous, which is another matter.

The diference is +1.8 pp100p.

[Kizz Fastfists]

The diference is +1.8 pp100p.

Stop this nonsense right now! We do not let facts get in the way of stupidity on this board. Schroder is the best player on the team and no statistical "evidence" will change my mind! We all know you can twist stats to say whatever you want. Just like last year the NBA twisted them to say OKC lost to Utah, but we all know OKC really won. The NBA just cheated OKC out of their championship, again!

[SecondTake]

7 pp100 isn't really just "marginally" better, 117 would make us the best offense in the league for a season instead of #12 with TFergs numbers of that stretch you mentioned extended through the season. Schroder elevates the offense substantially over that stretch. Obviously the defense is horrendous, which is another matter.

The diference is +1.8 pp100p.

I'm only referring to that strecch he posted the image of below

[hardenASG13]

last five games:



not only have the thunder starters been elite over this 1-4 stretch, they've been better than usual, and better than usual on defense. you can't ask for more from that unit.

but look at the four next most used lineups. they are getting stomped. these units all share a common thread: dennis schroder.

you can't blame 20+pp100 difference on one guy. but this has been a pattern all year long. the starters defense alone falls 13.4pp100 just swapping ferguson for schroder on the year. that is a kanter-esque defensive lineup split. during this 1-4 stretch, the thunder are +11.8pp100 with schroder off the court, and -22.8pp100 when he is on the court. yes, the bench sucks, especially without noel, but even the schroder + starters lineup is losing by double digits and there's just not much explanation for that.

he's not as bad as these numbers say, but i think schroder is developing into a lineup cancer nonetheless.

You are misleadingly ignoring alot with these stats, particularly minutes used per game, . The starters play a third of the game together , all 5 games, while the other 4 lineups play 9.5, 6, 4.7, and 5.5 mpg. Most of them only appear in 2 or 3 of the listed games. Is it a surprise the most consistently used lineup is the most cohesive?

Those other lineups are extremely insignificant statistical samples to draw much from. A team getting hot for an 8 minute stretch, or an 8 minute cold stretch by okc in any of those lineups would shift the numbers you post dramatically.

Okc must have other positive lineups on the season as they are a winning team. I'm sure Schroeder is in some of them. He's an important part of the team. To call him a lineup cancer based on these 'most used lineups ' (that in actuality are rarely used, if at all), is nonsense.

[spearsy23]

Is it too late to fire Presti for the harden trade?

[spearsy23]

Russ is scoring 25 on 45/18/70 over the last 6 games. It's not exactly thrilling, but it's a step.

[ThunderBolt]

Is it too late to fire Presti for the harden trade?

I’m good with it. I’m getting frustrated with his inability to make timely adjustments to flawed rosters and commitment to keeping a trash contract no matter what.

[Osirus89]

Is it too late to fire Presti for the harden trade?

I’m good with it. I’m getting frustrated with his inability to make timely adjustments to flawed rosters and commitment to keeping a trash contract no matter what.

Keeps Kyle singler for almost the entirety of his contract. Stretches him at the end.

[ThunderBolt]

I’ve just had a bad feeling about this team since the Christmas game against Houston. I like this team more than last year but last years team broke my enthusiasm. I’ll always watch and keep up with the thunder but something changed a few weeks ago. I just feel very indifferent to this team.

[alessandrux]

Unfortunately I was not able to watch the last few games, but it looks like we were playing as always and George wasn't as hot as before, Donovan seems to still like playing horrible lineups and we were having a bit of bad luck.

I hope that changes, we play Schröder fewer minutes (and more Ferguson) and we get a bit lucky again.
We can't lose many more (winnable) games, because right now we look like the weakest team in the top 8 and some teams push from behind (Lakers, Kings, Pelicans, Wolves).


I still have hope that some team decides to trade for Schröder (and gives us some decent player(s) back).

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

PRAISE THE LORD

[SecondTake]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

PRAISE THE LORD

I think we win this game now.

[SecondTake]

Unfortunately I was not able to watch the last few games, but it looks like we were playing as always and George wasn't as hot as before, Donovan seems to still like playing horrible lineups and we were having a bit of bad luck.

I hope that changes, we play Schröder fewer minutes (and more Ferguson) and we get a bit lucky again.
We can't lose many more (winnable) games, because right now we look like the weakest team in the top 8 and some teams push from behind (Lakers, Kings, Pelicans, Wolves).


I still have hope that some team decides to trade for Schröder (and gives us some decent player(s) back).

We have an agreement with Schroder that his minutes wouldn't decline despite coming off the bench. If we cut his minutes he's going to become a locker room cancer and will mostly chuck even more to get his 16-17 points in the time he has.

I still don't think Schroder is the real problem, although he's been pretty bad since December. I think the overall bench is bad. It doesn't have the same defensive identity that our starting unit have and is a lot worse offensively. It's just a bunch of random guys with Noel being the best fit defensively.

[wco81]

Russ is scoring 25 on 45/18/70 over the last 6 games. It's not exactly thrilling, but it's a step.

He hesitated at least 3 times on a catch outside the arc. He made only one of those, a left corner 3, in the fourth quarter or OT.

Seems like the Lakers weren't closing aggressively on him and he was either hesitant because he was struggling or he was surprised they were giving him room.

Lebron struggled a few seasons ago on any shot outside the paint. People wondered whether his legs were going.

But he's really worked on his 3-point shot, starting when he was around 31 years old.

His MVP season, he shot a career best 34.3 on 7.2 attempts per game. The shooting percentage declined in the 2017-18 season and even more this season. His attempts also declined from that season, to 4.1 and 4.6.

If he gets an open look off a catch, he's got to shoot it without hesitation. He's got no choice but to take that shot if the team generates an open look for him. Odds are that he's going to revert towards his career average of 30.6 instead of being stuck at 22.8%.

[getrichordie]

Been away for a while. Just wow.

7 for 30.

I stand by my belief that a Russ-centric team cannot be considered a true contender. Russ’ only real skill is his athleticism and passing and he’s picked it up on defense this year. He sucks at almost everything else.

Just tired of watching Russ make mistake after mistake and bad decision after bad decision. He’s not Kobe. He doesn’t deserve the “leeway” that he’s been getting within our offense. Not anymore, anyway.

Out with old and in with the new. Trade Russ if you can. I’ll take Schroder as my starter for the future over Russ.

Let’s just pray that Presti isn’t married to Russ.


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