Taking the 5th (Pick)

[Hazer]

It's still early, but now we're past the halfway mark I've been thinking about the 5th place thing and something dawned on me: fairly comfortable cushion over/under where Hawks currently sit at 5. That position being unique in that the Mavs' pick is top 5 protected. If their season turns south and Cuban decides to pull the plug and head for bottom 5 to keep the pick, Hawks are sitting right there at 5th as gatekeepers of that draft pick. Setting a hard screen. At 3rd they can't keep the Mav's out of top 5, at 5th they essentially can. Unless Cleveland, Phoenix, Chicago, and NY get stupid. I can't be the only one contemplating this. Don't think it happens? See Ressler cussing out Bud last year. Odds of getting the top pick (and top 3) at 5th have increased, odds of getting the Mavs' pick is 100% staying put at 5th and blocking them from it (Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, I'm watching you, DON'T do it). Very interesting angle, anybody else buying it?

[Spud2nique]

I’m hoping the Hawks are going to stay at 3-5 specially after the trade deadline and you would think the Suns and Knicks..the zinger back will win a few more. But I feel you, set that screen hard.

Also, I have the Mavs winning around 34 games putting them in the 8th or 9th slot most likely.

[Spud2nique]

It's still early, but now we're past the halfway mark I've been thinking about the 5th place thing and something dawned on me: fairly comfortable cushion over/under where Hawks currently sit at 5. That position being unique in that the Mavs' pick is top 5 protected. If their season turns south and Cuban decides to pull the plug and head for bottom 5 to keep the pick, Hawks are sitting right there at 5th as gatekeepers of that draft pick. Setting a hard screen. At 3rd they can't keep the Mav's out of top 5, at 5th they essentially can. Unless Cleveland, Phoenix, Chicago, and NY get stupid. I can't be the only one contemplating this. Don't think it happens? See Ressler cussing out Bud last year. Odds of getting the top pick (and top 3) at 5th have increased, odds of getting the Mavs' pick is 100% staying put at 5th and blocking them from it (Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, I'm watching you, DON'T do it). Very interesting angle, anybody else buying it?

BTW..I love ur brain and how it works...a beautiful mind!

[personanongrata]

It's still early, but now we're past the halfway mark I've been thinking about the 5th place thing and something dawned on me: fairly comfortable cushion over/under where Hawks currently sit at 5. That position being unique in that the Mavs' pick is top 5 protected. If their season turns south and Cuban decides to pull the plug and head for bottom 5 to keep the pick, Hawks are sitting right there at 5th as gatekeepers of that draft pick. Setting a hard screen. At 3rd they can't keep the Mav's out of top 5, at 5th they essentially can. Unless Cleveland, Phoenix, Chicago, and NY get stupid. I can't be the only one contemplating this. Don't think it happens? See Ressler cussing out Bud last year. Odds of getting the top pick (and top 3) at 5th have increased, odds of getting the Mavs' pick is 100% staying put at 5th and blocking them from it (Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, I'm watching you, DON'T do it). Very interesting angle, anybody else buying it?

No not really. Everything is determined by the lottery. Do you ten different simulations on tankathon, and you will get 10 different results. It's a complete crapshoot, with incremental differences in odds based on record. The main thing that will determine what picks we get is complete utter luck. Dallas already has 20 wins, they probably end up with 30 something wins, and I doubt they will out lose Memphis, who is in complete free fall.

[Buzzard]

It's still early, but now we're past the halfway mark I've been thinking about the 5th place thing and something dawned on me: fairly comfortable cushion over/under where Hawks currently sit at 5. That position being unique in that the Mavs' pick is top 5 protected. If their season turns south and Cuban decides to pull the plug and head for bottom 5 to keep the pick, Hawks are sitting right there at 5th as gatekeepers of that draft pick. Setting a hard screen. At 3rd they can't keep the Mav's out of top 5, at 5th they essentially can. Unless Cleveland, Phoenix, Chicago, and NY get stupid. I can't be the only one contemplating this. Don't think it happens? See Ressler cussing out Bud last year. Odds of getting the top pick (and top 3) at 5th have increased, odds of getting the Mavs' pick is 100% staying put at 5th and blocking them from it (Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, I'm watching you, DON'T do it). Very interesting angle, anybody else buying it?

I don't think so. We are playing hard and trying to win. So is Dallas. If we end up 5th, it is because that is all we could win. Bazemore being out so much is a downer. He was helping his trade value out a lot before the injury.

Cuban will not tank until he gives up on the playoffs. It may be to late by then; as Spud says 30 wins or so.

[Hazer]

I think some of y’all are kidding yourselves. It’s not just a coincidence, GMs put a lot of thought into these things. Yes, 30 wins or so for Mavs, not many ahead of the Hawks.

[Buzzard]

I think some of y’all are kidding yourselves. It’s not just a coincidence, GMs put a lot of thought into these things. Yes, 30 wins or so for Mavs, not many ahead of the Hawks.

I think you are strategizing to much. We are trying to win games; Boston, OKC, and Philly are obvious recent examples of games we could have easily tanked. Management is clearly letting Pierce coach these guys up every minute. I think Schlenk believes he can find talent anywhere in the lottery; so us ending up with the 6th or 7th pick is no big deal to him.

I would not be surprised if we did not trade down a few spots with one of our picks; similar to last year. Maybe trade down and take one of those centers is what I am thinking.

[Hazer]

It's still early, but now we're past the halfway mark I've been thinking about the 5th place thing and something dawned on me: fairly comfortable cushion over/under where Hawks currently sit at 5. That position being unique in that the Mavs' pick is top 5 protected. If their season turns south and Cuban decides to pull the plug and head for bottom 5 to keep the pick, Hawks are sitting right there at 5th as gatekeepers of that draft pick. Setting a hard screen. At 3rd they can't keep the Mav's out of top 5, at 5th they essentially can. Unless Cleveland, Phoenix, Chicago, and NY get stupid. I can't be the only one contemplating this. Don't think it happens? See Ressler cussing out Bud last year. Odds of getting the top pick (and top 3) at 5th have increased, odds of getting the Mavs' pick is 100% staying put at 5th and blocking them from it (Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, I'm watching you, DON'T do it). Very interesting angle, anybody else buying it?

Cuban will not tank until he gives up on the playoffs. It may be to late by then; as Spud says 30 wins or so.

Agreed, this is what I was referring to in my post.

[Hazer]

I think some of y’all are kidding yourselves. It’s not just a coincidence, GMs put a lot of thought into these things. Yes, 30 wins or so for Mavs, not many ahead of the Hawks.

I think you are strategizing to much. We are trying to win games; Boston, OKC, and Philly are obvious recent examples of games we could have easily tanked. Management is clearly letting Pierce coach these guys up every minute. I think Schlenk believes he can find talent anywhere in the lottery; so us ending up with the 6th or 7th pick is no big deal to him.

I would not be surprised if we did not trade down a few spots with one of our picks; similar to last year. Maybe trade down and take one of those centers is what I am thinking.

You’re missing my point. I didn’t say we weren’t trying to win or tanking, I’m saying we’re positioning ourselves comfortably in the 5th position for a reason. Of course those are games we could’ve easil lost, we tried to win them because we’d be evening up with Knicks/Bulls/Cavs/Suns had we not. Jeopardizing 5th while we’re at it. Look at the cushion between us and 4th, is and 6th. We’re not trying to lose, we’re on a very specific competi-tank.

[High 5]

I don’t understand how our position affects whether or not the Mavs pass one of the other bottom teams.

[Hazer]

It's still early, but now we're past the halfway mark I've been thinking about the 5th place thing and something dawned on me: fairly comfortable cushion over/under where Hawks currently sit at 5. That position being unique in that the Mavs' pick is top 5 protected. If their season turns south and Cuban decides to pull the plug and head for bottom 5 to keep the pick, Hawks are sitting right there at 5th as gatekeepers of that draft pick. Setting a hard screen. At 3rd they can't keep the Mav's out of top 5, at 5th they essentially can. Unless Cleveland, Phoenix, Chicago, and NY get stupid. I can't be the only one contemplating this. Don't think it happens? See Ressler cussing out Bud last year. Odds of getting the top pick (and top 3) at 5th have increased, odds of getting the Mavs' pick is 100% staying put at 5th and blocking them from it (Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, I'm watching you, DON'T do it). Very interesting angle, anybody else buying it?

No not really. Everything is determined by the lottery. Do you ten different simulations on tankathon, and you will get 10 different results. It's a complete crapshoot, with incremental differences in odds based on record. The main thing that will determine what picks we get is complete utter luck. Dallas already has 20 wins, they probably end up with 30 something wins, and I doubt they will out lose Memphis, who is in complete free fall.

I’m aware of how the lottery works, and the new odds structure. The ODDS of Hawks getting that Mavs’ pick are better with Mavs at 6 than at 5.

[King Ken]

Not my favorite pick. I would honestly look at moving down. Reddish if he is at #5 or move down for Hunter. I am hoping for a great lottery ball win. #5 is not my favorite pick in this draft.

[Hazer]

I think some of y’all are kidding yourselves. It’s not just a coincidence, GMs put a lot of thought into these things. Yes, 30 wins or so for Mavs, not many ahead of the Hawks.

I think you are strategizing to much. We are trying to win games; Boston, OKC, and Philly are obvious recent examples of games we could have easily tanked. Management is clearly letting Pierce coach these guys up every minute. I think Schlenk believes he can find talent anywhere in the lottery; so us ending up with the 6th or 7th pick is no big deal to him.

I would not be surprised if we did not trade down a few spots with one of our picks; similar to last year. Maybe trade down and take one of those centers is what I am thinking.

You’re missing my point. I didn’t say we weren’t trying to win those games, I’m saying we’re positioning ourselves comfortably in the 5th position for a reason. Of course those are games we could’ve easily lost, we tried to win them because we’d be evening up with Knicks/Bulls/Cavs/Suns had we not. Jeopardizing 5th while we’re at it. Look at the cushion between us and 4th, us and 6th. We’re not trying to lose, we’re on a very specific competi-tank.

[personanongrata]

What if Ja is clearly the best player on the board when we pick? Do we still take him even though we just drafted Trae?

[Hazer]

I don’t understand how our position affects whether or not the Mavs pass one of the other bottom teams.

It doesn’t, this theory assumes those teams continue on their current crappy tragectory and stay beneath the Hawks. Which is highly likely.

[Buzzard]

I think some of y’all are kidding yourselves. It’s not just a coincidence, GMs put a lot of thought into these things. Yes, 30 wins or so for Mavs, not many ahead of the Hawks.

I think you are strategizing to much. We are trying to win games; Boston, OKC, and Philly are obvious recent examples of games we could have easily tanked. Management is clearly letting Pierce coach these guys up every minute. I think Schlenk believes he can find talent anywhere in the lottery; so us ending up with the 6th or 7th pick is no big deal to him.

I would not be surprised if we did not trade down a few spots with one of our picks; similar to last year. Maybe trade down and take one of those centers is what I am thinking.

You’re missing my point. I didn’t say we weren’t trying to win or tanking, I’m saying we’re positioning ourselves comfortably in the 5th position for a reason. Of course those are games we could’ve easil lost, we tried to win them because we’d be evening up with Knicks/Bulls/Cavs/Suns had we not. Jeopardizing 5th while we’re at it. Look at the cushion between us and 4th, is and 6th. We’re not trying to lose, we’re on a very specific competi-tank.

If we are tanking for 5th or 3rd does not control what the other teams are doing, including Dallas. The real logic is this: if Cuban wants to tank, it does not matter who is in 5th. He can pull Doncic and lose 10-15 games in a row. You act like we can keep Cuban from tanking to 4th by being in 5th.

But I get Cuban. He is more about free agency than a lot of owners and will spend the money by over paying. Us being in 5th and Dallas being in 10th right now is pure chance. Schlenk was counting on Cuban not tanking though; and it was a good guess.

My logic for us is this:
Schlenk was a big part of the team that drafted Curry 7th, Klay 11th, and Draymond 35th. I don't think he is worried that much about where we fall in the lottery; which is why we are pushing our young players hard to win every game.

[Hazer]

I think you are strategizing to much. We are trying to win games; Boston, OKC, and Philly are obvious recent examples of games we could have easily tanked. Management is clearly letting Pierce coach these guys up every minute. I think Schlenk believes he can find talent anywhere in the lottery; so us ending up with the 6th or 7th pick is no big deal to him.

I would not be surprised if we did not trade down a few spots with one of our picks; similar to last year. Maybe trade down and take one of those centers is what I am thinking.

You’re missing my point. I didn’t say we weren’t trying to win or tanking, I’m saying we’re positioning ourselves comfortably in the 5th position for a reason. Of course those are games we could’ve easil lost, we tried to win them because we’d be evening up with Knicks/Bulls/Cavs/Suns had we not. Jeopardizing 5th while we’re at it. Look at the cushion between us and 4th, is and 6th. We’re not trying to lose, we’re on a very specific competi-tank.

If we are tanking for 5th or 3rd does not control what the other teams are doing, including Dallas. The real logic is this: if Cuban wants to tank, it does not matter who is in 5th. He can pull Doncic and lose 10-15 games in a row. You act like we can keep Cuban from tanking to 4th by being in 5th.

But I get Cuban. He is more about free agency than a lot of owners and will spend the money by over paying. Us being in 5th and Dallas being in 10th right now is pure chance. Schlenk was counting on Cuban not tanking though; and it was a good guess.

My logic for us is this:
Schlenk was a big part of the team that drafted Curry 7th, Klay 11th, and Draymond 35th. I don't think he is worried that much about where we fall in the lottery; which is why we are pushing our young players hard to win every game.

I agree with most of that. My specific logic being it would be too late for Cuban by the time he decided to head south in the standings to out tank NY/Chicago/Phoenix/Cleveland.

[High 5]

I don’t understand how our position affects whether or not the Mavs pass one of the other bottom teams.

It doesn’t, this theory assumes those teams continue on their current crappy tragectory and stay beneath the Hawks. Which is highly likely.

All we can do is be worse than the Mavs. At 1st, 3rd, or 5th it doesn't matter. No team is going to decide to be better than the Mavs because we took their position. So I don't understand what you're getting at.

[Hazer]

What if Ja is clearly the best player on the board when we pick? Do we still take him even though we just drafted Trae?

Probably. Schlenk already reiterated “BPA”. Imagine them with 24 mins each and what a trade piece the other one would eventually be. We’d be set at the 1/2/4 and could fill the 3/5 with trade/FAs. Especially with $80+mill in cap space in ‘20.

[King Ken]

What if Ja is clearly the best player on the board when we pick? Do we still take him even though we just drafted Trae?

That would be perfect. Trade value of the pick goes up exponentially. Flip it. See who has interest in the pick. I would offer Orlando the pick for Bamba