2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[HotelVitale]

Saw the Hawks live yesterday. Trae Young's play recently has been great and yesterday's game was probably his most active defensively. Over the last 18 Hawks games Trae is averaging 17.1/3.7/7.3 on 56.9 TS% with a 107 ORTG in 30.4 MPG (20/4/9 per 36). Atlanta is also 8-10.

.[/quote]

This isn't knocking him, just re-framing: he's also averaging almost 5 TOs per game this month and his advanced #s are all pretty rough. Seems like he's been more 'not bad for a rookie!' than actual good player?

[E-Balla]

Saw the Hawks live yesterday. Trae Young's play recently has been great and yesterday's game was probably his most active defensively. Over the last 18 Hawks games Trae is averaging 17.1/3.7/7.3 on 56.9 TS% with a 107 ORTG in 30.4 MPG (20/4/9 per 36). Atlanta is also 8-10.

.

This isn't knocking him, just re-framing: he's also averaging almost 5 TOs per game this month and his advanced #s are all pretty rough. Seems like he's been more 'not bad for a rookie!' than actual good player?[/quote]
His advanced numbers aren't rough at all. He has a 16 PER over that stretch and he's averaging 4.4 TOs a game not 5 (4.4 doesn't round up). He's been good, not good for a rookie over this stretch. Active defensively, good scorer, great playmaker with a ton of questionable decisions, but not enough to make him bad.

[koyotee]

Well what happened to Trae today? 5 points on 1/12 shooting?

[Archx]

Well what happened to Trae today? 5 points on 1/12 shooting?

It isn't just Trae, looks like almost all rookies can't hit an ocean lately. Even Doncic has some problems with his shot. I guess we're closing in on that famous rookie wall

[Pumpkin17]

Trae's shooting is streaky and concerning but it can be normal for a rookie. What does really concern me is JJJ rebounding,too low numbers for a supposed generational big and it is becoming more and more a defined trend ...

[Bob8]

Trae's shooting is streaky and concerning but it can be normal for a rookie. What does really concern me is JJJ rebounding,too low numbers for a supposed generational big and it is becoming more and more a defined trend ...

JJJ is averaging 4.6 rebounds and Trae is shooting 28.5% for 3. I don’t know what’s worse? But I know that JJJ is full year younger and he physically looks like he should be good rebounder. Trae with his hight and low release just doesn’t look like good shooter.

[Golden Knight]

Trae's shooting is streaky and concerning but it can be normal for a rookie.

He really needs to stop hoisting those 30 footers. He's still shooting them like he's Steph Curry. He's not. He's shooting just .285 for the season.

[kg01]

Well what happened to Trae today? 5 points on 1/12 shooting?

Had a really bad game shooting. Contrary to what some folks said (who clearly didn't watch the game), he wasn't taking bad shots. Didn't take any 30-footers. Just had a tough night from the field.

I took some solace in the rest of his game. 7 rebounds, 12 assts (3 tov), ran the offense masterfully in a road win and actually is showing some growth on the defensive end.

Earlier in the season, a bad shooting night meant he was unplayable. That wasn't the case last night.

[Golden Knight]

Had a really bad game shooting. Contrary to what some folks said (who clearly didn't watch the game), he wasn't taking bad shots. Didn't take any 30-footers. Just had a tough night from the field.

I wasn't really talking about today's game.

Here's from last week's game:

at 1:09 in the video, 19 secs in the shot clock, takes a ridiculously long 3.

at 4:23, up 12 with 2:40 remaining in the game and still with 18 secs on the shot clock, takes a long semi-contested 3.

He made both shots but he could easily have made a better decision in those situations.

Watch on YouTube

[Tanks1]

Here is a list of every rookie in the history of the NBA who's made 90 3-pointers in his first 49 games,
while shooting at least 40% from 3.


Landry Shamet



10, 9, 8, 76ers !!!!

[kg01]

Had a really bad game shooting. Contrary to what some folks said (who clearly didn't watch the game), he wasn't taking bad shots. Didn't take any 30-footers. Just had a tough night from the field.

I wasn't really talking about today's game.

Here's from last week's game:

at 1:09 in the video, 19 secs in the shot clock, takes a ridiculously long 3.

at 4:23, up 12 with 2:40 remaining in the game and still with 18 secs on the shot clock, takes a long semi-contested 3.

He made both shots but he could easily have made a better decision in those situations.

Watch on YouTube

I wasn't really talking about you, although I do see that it seems that way. Sorry about that. There was a guy on our board who'd made some comments that raised my eyebrows.

I agree with you though, in general. Lately it seems the staff is reigning that in, which is a good thing.

[King Ken]

Well what happened to Trae today? 5 points on 1/12 shooting?

He actually had one of his best all around games of the season v. Chicago. Just couldn't score. Chicago deserves some props because their goal was to always have two players around or on Young but it didn't matter. He destroyed them anyway. His passing was elite but for the first game in a while, his decision making was elite. Outside of a two possession stretch where Kris Dunn made some amazing defensive reads, causing back to back turnovers, Trae control of the game was up there for this season and for any PG. He had a lot of hockey assists but his control of the game was his meal ticket.

Shooting wise, kg01 said it best. He had good looks, just was off target. He badly missed a wide open three. But Chicago deserves credit, they didn't let him go iso with the constant doubling.

[King Ken]

Had a really bad game shooting. Contrary to what some folks said (who clearly didn't watch the game), he wasn't taking bad shots. Didn't take any 30-footers. Just had a tough night from the field.

I wasn't really talking about today's game.

Here's from last week's game:

at 1:09 in the video, 19 secs in the shot clock, takes a ridiculously long 3.

at 4:23, up 12 with 2:40 remaining in the game and still with 18 secs on the shot clock, takes a long semi-contested 3.

He made both shots but he could easily have made a better decision in those situations.

Watch on YouTube

He made them besides, our coach encourages him and Kevin to shoot from deep distance. It helps spread out the defense when they start overplaying the PnR.

[Pumpkin17]

Trae's shooting is streaky and concerning but it can be normal for a rookie. What does really concern me is JJJ rebounding,too low numbers for a supposed generational big and it is becoming more and more a defined trend ...

JJJ is averaging 4.6 rebounds and Trae is shooting 28.5% for 3. I don’t know what’s worse? But I know that JJJ is full year younger and he physically looks like he should be good rebounder. Trae with his hight and low release just doesn’t look like good shooter.

Yeah I agree with you there, in my eyes Trae is a lower ceiling player so I guess with some more experience and better shot selection he can improve with respect to shooting % and be a useful piece on a team, even a contending one maybe even if not the alpha. JJJ is supposedly having as high a ceiling as anyone however,therefore his apparent weakness in that department is more concerning as far as his status goes...

[sfernald]

Here is a list of every rookie in the history of the NBA who's made 90 3-pointers in his first 49 games,
while shooting at least 40% from 3.


Landry Shamet



10, 9, 8, 76ers !!!!

If anyon is playing like Curry it’s this guy. A real steal of the draft.

[mg]

Well what happened to Trae today? 5 points on 1/12 shooting?

I give the one and done PG's a break when it comes to efficiency ratings their first season. Even Fox was bottom 5 last year.
PG is such a tough position to learn. These kids have raw talent but it takes a year or two for the majority of them to figure it out. I'd probably put someone like Sexton in the same category. You see the performance of Doncic but it's just not reasonable for most of these kids coming out of NCAA/AAU culture. It helps to have patience and nice to have a developmental coach like Atkinson too who has been working with Russell in Brooklyn.

[HotelVitale]

Saw the Hawks live yesterday. Trae Young's play recently has been great and yesterday's game was probably his most active defensively. Over the last 18 Hawks games Trae is averaging 17.1/3.7/7.3 on 56.9 TS% with a 107 ORTG in 30.4 MPG (20/4/9 per 36). Atlanta is also 8-10.

This isn't knocking him, just re-framing: he's also averaging almost 5 TOs per game this month and his advanced #s are all pretty rough. Seems like he's been more 'not bad for a rookie!' than actual good player?

His advanced numbers aren't rough at all. He has a 16 PER over that stretch and he's averaging 4.4 TOs a game not 5 (4.4 doesn't round up). He's been good, not good for a rookie over this stretch. Active defensively, good scorer, great playmaker with a ton of questionable decisions, but not enough to make him bad.

C'mon, man, you have over 27,000 posts on here--you know PER is a junk counting stat (not an advanced one) that no one here has used credibly since like 2009. The only reason you'd use that is to make Young look good. This month he's had a -12 net rating, and his BPM is terrible; I don't know how to search for RPM by month but on the season he's been one of the league's worst (#459 of the 477 qualifying players in the NBA this year).

The truth is probably better than that, but I honestly don't see the point of saying he's an overall plus NBA starter now.

[King Ken]

This isn't knocking him, just re-framing: he's also averaging almost 5 TOs per game this month and his advanced #s are all pretty rough. Seems like he's been more 'not bad for a rookie!' than actual good player?

His advanced numbers aren't rough at all. He has a 16 PER over that stretch and he's averaging 4.4 TOs a game not 5 (4.4 doesn't round up). He's been good, not good for a rookie over this stretch. Active defensively, good scorer, great playmaker with a ton of questionable decisions, but not enough to make him bad.

C'mon, man, you have over 27,000 posts on here--you know PER is a junk counting stat (not an advanced one) that no one here has used credibly since like 2009. The only reason you'd use that is to make Young look good. This month he's had a -12 net rating, and his BPM is terrible; I don't know how to search for RPM by month but on the season he's been one of the league's worst (#459 of the 477 qualifying players in the NBA this year).

The truth is probably better than that, but I honestly don't see the point of saying he's an overall plus NBA starter now.

This post above is the prime example why a lot of posters here are just horrendous in terms of Basketball knowledge. This poster posted a bunch of nothing like this shows his impact on the game currently. I really wish guys like you stopped posting nonsense. Watch the games.

I remember people saying Fox is a bust at the end of last year. I was like, not even close, he has tremendously improved in the 2nd half of the year and is inline for a major 2nd year jump. But horrendous posters like the one above who know nothing about the game will say, his BPM is XnX and his win shares are XnX. He is a bust man. The next bust.

Basketball know nothings have ruin honest Basketball chatter

[E-Balla]

This isn't knocking him, just re-framing: he's also averaging almost 5 TOs per game this month and his advanced #s are all pretty rough. Seems like he's been more 'not bad for a rookie!' than actual good player?

His advanced numbers aren't rough at all. He has a 16 PER over that stretch and he's averaging 4.4 TOs a game not 5 (4.4 doesn't round up). He's been good, not good for a rookie over this stretch. Active defensively, good scorer, great playmaker with a ton of questionable decisions, but not enough to make him bad.

C'mon, man, you have over 27,000 posts on here--you know PER is a junk counting stat (not an advanced one) that no one here has used credibly since like 2009. The only reason you'd use that is to make Young look good.

No I used it because I assumed it's what you were talking about. Now that I see you weren't I'm completely lost because during this stretch (which is now 19 games long) his other advanced stats are great.

This month he's had a -12 net rating,

Where the hell you see this at? Prior to last night he had a -8 net rating for the month, and after last night he has a -3.3 net rating this month. Last month he had a -2.2 net rating. In the first 2 months of the season he had a -15 net rating if you want to get an understanding of how much he's improved.

In the last 20 games (the stretch I'm talking about is since his horrible Boston game but we'll include it here to get a nice round number despite the fact he was -26 in 23 minutes that game tanking his average) he has a -2.2 net rating (remove Boston and by my calculations he's almost in the positive). You need to check your sources more thoroughly next time, you think if he had a -12 net rating playing 30 mpg they'd be 9-10 in their last 19? You should've immediately saw those numbers where ever you got them and knew they weren't right. Hell he only has a -10 net rating on the season overall right now.

and his BPM is terrible;

BPM is just as useless as PER if you wanna go there. Also I've literally never seen monthly BPM breakdowns so IDK what it possibly is.

I don't know how to search for RPM by month but on the season he's been one of the league's worst (#459 of the 477 qualifying players in the NBA this year).

So why mention it? His RPM was literally the last in the league in the first 2 months of the season. By a distance too. He went from being a -5.5 to being a -3.8 over the course of 2 months. That means he's probably been only a slight negative or neutral by RPM for the last 2 months.

The truth is probably better than that, but I honestly don't see the point of saying he's an overall plus NBA starter now.

Then you aren't paying attention. The Hawks actually look decent, and their turnaround is 100% on Trae going from being the possible worst player in the league to becoming a serviceable starting PG. Anyone actually watching the Hawks could see that and anyone actually using the real statistics would notice that too.

[Bob8]

Interesting conversation. Whole season stats are not that important, but last 18 are? Why not last 25 or January stats? RPM and BPM doesn’t count but PER counts? By the way, his PER(12.8) is as bad as all his stats, except numerical stats. He had solid shooting stats only in December, his January stats are much lower again. Selecting his best shooting night to start counting stats is just laughable.