2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[polo007]

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He knew he was frustrated with the way his season had unfolded both on and off of the field, but he wasn’t sure what to expect when he met Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins for lunch in September.

They spoke for a while on a wide range of topics: Pompey’s 2018 performance, his goals for 2019 and his standing in the organization. Eventually, the conversation shifted and Atkins suggested that Pompey could benefit from talking to someone he trusts on a more personal level about his successes and struggles.

"Because it’s a lot," Pompey said. "Being a professional athlete is a lot."

Months later, Pompey’s talking to a life coach every two weeks– "she’s basically like my therapist"– and those conversations have improved his state of mind. As he heads into a make-or-break year with the Blue Jays, the 26-year-old outfielder says he’s better equipped to handle baseball’s inevitable failure, and hopeful some new ways of thinking will help him deliver on the field in 2019.

"This is a big year for me to try to keep my mind right," Pompey said. "She really helps me. She always tells me: she’s not my friend, she’s there to let me know her opinion and then be real with me. I feel like I’m in a better frame of mind–the best frame of mind I’ve been in since I can remember."

A friend recommended the life coach to Pompey, who connects with her on FaceTime. Already, their conversations have prompted Pompey to reflect and learn from events that held him back in the past.

"Whether it’s interactions with some people, things that happened on the field," Pompey said. "Maybe a couple of failures that I had–just getting over them, because I could never get over them. Looking back, I wish I could have, but I just didn’t know how to. She gave me the tools to do that."

[polo007]

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There's a good amount of turnover on this year's Top 10 Catching Prospects list compared to the 2018 version. That starts at the top, with a member of the 2018 Draft Class, Joey Bart, leading the way.

Francisco Mejia, now with the Padres, continues to be a mainstay, sitting in the top two for the third straight season. Keibert Ruiz of the Dodgers, the A's Sean Murphy and Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays are the other holdovers from last year's Top 10. Graduation caused some serious turnover, with Carson Kelly, now with the D-backs, Jorge Alfaro (Phillies), Chance Sisco (Orioles) and Victor Caratini (Cubs) all moving on to larger big league contributions.

The Top 10 (ETA)

1. Joey Bart, Giants (2021)
2. Francisco Mejia, Padres (2019)
3. Keibert Ruiz, Dodgers (2020)
4. Sean Murphy, A's (2019)
5. Danny Jansen, Blue Jays (2019)
6. Ronaldo Hernandez, Rays (2021)
7. Miguel Amaya, Cubs (2021)
8. Daulton Varsho, D-backs (2020)
9. M.J. Melendez, Royals (2021)
10. Andrew Knizner, Cardinals (2019)

[phillipmike]

BA's 2019 Top 100 MLB Prospects:
1. Vladimir Guerreo Jr.
8. Bo Bichette
42. Danny Jansen
70. Nate Pearson
84. Eric Pardinho
89. Jordan Groshans
91. Kevin Smith

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-top-100-prospects/

BP's 2019 Top 100 MLB Prospects:
1. Vladimir Guerreo Jr.
12. Bo Bichette
54. Nate Pearson
89. Danny Jansen

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46653/2019-prospects-the-top-101/

MLB's 2019 Position Ranking:
RHP - No Jays - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=rhp
LHP - No Jays - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=lhp
Catcher - 5. Danny Jansen - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=c
1B - No Jays - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=1b
2B - 8. Cavan Biggio - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=2b
3B - 1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=3b
SS - 4. Bo Bichette - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=ss
OF - Coming out tomorrow - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=of
MLB's Top 100 - Coming out on Saturday

[polo007]

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[polo007]

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Another positive is the majority of that high-end talent is also fairly close to the majors, led by a player most consider to be generational.

Quantity, quality, proximity.

While prospect stock is fickle and opinions vary, it doesn’t get much better than that.

If there’s a weak point, it’s on the starting pitching side, a need Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has pointed to throughout the organization numerous times this off-season.

Here’s a breakdown of the top 50 by position:

Catchers: 8
Corner infielders: 5
Middle infielders: 9
Outfielders: 11
Pitchers: 17

It’s also a mixed bag when it comes to how this system was built.

A good chunk of talent is left over from the Alex Anthopoulos era – 11 were brought into the organization prior to 2016 – while a number of names, especially in the 11 through 31 range, have been added recently via trade.

[phillipmike]

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Mayo: 80 hit tool, power legitimate to all fields, never seen a prospect like this, hit 29 balls in AA 100mph or harder, kept getting thrown out at 2B because he was hitting the ball too hard off the Lf wall, ready to be in the big leagues, will be in the big leagues for a long time, future all star, future hall of famer. Best top 3 (Vlad, Tatis and Eloy) in the last 15 years.
Callis: as good as any hitting prospect in the last 25-30 years, Griffey and A Rod were better prospect because of the position they played. But pure bat he is as good as anyone. He is better than his dad.
Reynolds: I’m not saying he is good as his dad yet. Says watching Vlad hitting a ball over the wall on a tee is the most amazing thing he has ever seen especially going oppo. Only seen Cal Ripkin do that. Questions whether Vlad can play a position and keep his weight in check. If he can then he might be a hall of famer.

11. Bo Bichette
Michael Amsinger “if I have a prospect crush, it’s Bo Bichette. The guy has done nothing wrong, he is the perfect minor league prospect”
Harold Reynolds chimes in, talks about how the Jays holds back prospects because “it’s all about service time.” Said nothing about Bichette, just trashing the Jays.

65. Danny Jansen
76. Nate Pearson
98. Eric Pardinho

For those of you keeping track

[JaysRule25]

Damn, Alford not on the Top 100? Looks they finally had enough of his "potential" lol.

[vaff87]

Looking forward to Keith Law ranking Guerrero 4th or something.

[vaff87]

Steamer projections have Vladdy with the 13th highest WAR among position players.

11. Harper
12. Arenado
13. Vladdy
14. Judge
15. Altuve

And they have Vladdy playing 15+ less games than all of them .

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

[dagger]

Steamer projections have Vladdy with the 13th highest WAR among position players.

11. Harper
12. Arenado
13. Vladdy
14. Judge
15. Altuve

And they have Vladdy playing 15+ less games than all of them .

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

Nobody on this board has more Vladdiy love than you, he's going to be a generational superstar, but it's going to take a lot more than him to turn around this team, and the fun in prospect watching will be when someone other than Vlad or Bo turn into a can't miss prospect who will look at home on a contender. Right now, the Yankees and Red Sox are miles ahead of Toronto, and the Rays have a deeper pool of above average prospects. I'm going to enjoy the kid, but keep hunting through the system for the next can't miss kid to emerge, because that will begin to tell me that we are turning a corner.

[polo007]

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[JaysRule25]

Keith Law ranked Tatis above Vladdy as his No. 1 prospect. Regarding Vladdy, Law said this

For pure bat, Vlad Jr. is the best prospect in the minors. If you could put an 80 on any prospect's hit tool, it would be his, and he has plus-plus power to go with it. Vlad's hands are electric, and he has shown an advanced feel for the strike zone since his pro debut at age 17, with just three more strikeouts than unintentional walks in his pro career. He overmatched Double-A pitching, then mashed in a month in Triple-A before coasting through a needless Arizona Fall League assignment in which he hit .351/.409/.442 while barely breaking a sweat (and looking like he knew he didn't belong there).

The knock on Baby Vlad is that he's probably a DH in the long run. He's enormous, and though he's a good athlete for his size, he has gotten so big so quickly that it's hard to imagine him at any position, let alone third base, where he isn't quick enough on his feet to play now and brings only a plus arm to the table. If he looks like this at 19, he's not going to be svelte at 23. Fortunately for him and the Blue Jays, he looks like a perennial .400 OBP guy who will hit 25-plus homers year in and year out, like a David Ortiz from the right side. Vlad Jr. was ready for the majors last June, but the Jays have manipulated his service time to try to gain an extra year of control in (checks notes) 2025. He's just as ready now and would be the heavy favorite for AL Rookie of the Year if the Jays just let the kid play.

He's still so salty about that service clock thing

I'm surprised that a guy who used to work in a front office doesn't understand the value of that extra year.

[JaysRule25]

Also, Bo was 13th on Law's list.

Bichette was the youngest player to spend a full season in the Double-A Eastern League -- his younger teammate, Vlad Jr., rocketed to Triple-A midyear -- and was still an above-average hitter across the board while continuing to play shortstop nearly full-time. Bichette continues to show outstanding hand-eye coordination at the plate, which allows him to overcome some defects in his swing, including a bat wrap and generally busy hands, so his contact rate remains high. He led the league in at-bats but was just 26th in strikeouts, for a seasonal rate (K/PA) of just 17 percent. He's an above-average runner with good instincts, and he tends to run the bases like something large is chasing him.

There's always the chance that his unconventional approach and swing will catch up to him, but his hand-eye is so exceptional that I'd bet on him continuing to hit for average with a lot of doubles and triples. He's a shortstop now, but his footwork is too erratic for the position, and he'd likely be a plus defender at second base. He's going to hit -- probably a lot, enough to make him an above-average regular somewhere -- and he'll be a fan favorite as well for his over-the-top energy and confident style of play.

[vaff87]

Law is an ***hole.

[dagger]

Chavez Young - the prospect no one is talking about - is profiled again. Seriously, this dude should at least be making the bottom of our top 30 prospects. He could certainly stall out in Dunedin, but on his peripherals at Lansing alone should be at least as good a candidate as some of the marginals holding down the last few spots in our prospect lists. And if he does become a major league regular, it's not going to speak well of the rating sites, since he did some electric things in full-season A at the right age.

https://community.fangraphs.com/the-2018-prospect-breakout-nobody-is-talking-about/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-blue-jays-prospect-chavez-young-is-a-bahamian-on-the-rise/

[Skin Blues]

Looking forward to Keith Law ranking Guerrero 4th or something.

LOL. What a joke.

[SharoneWright]

Blue Jays prospect Kacy Clemens beaten in ugly bar brawl in Houston, lawsuit claims baseball career in jeopardy

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/mlb/blue-jays-prospect-kacy-clemens-beaten-in-ugly-bar-brawl-in-houston-lawsuit-claims-baseball-career-in-jeopardy/ar-BBT0pm1?ocid=spartandhp

[BigLeagueChew]

Blue Jays: Kevin Smith, SS/3B
The 2017 fourth-rounder tweaked his swing and approach after his pro debut and put up huge numbers in his first full season, hitting .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs and 31 doubles in 129 games between two levels. He also swiped 29 bases, earning him distinction as one of six 20-20 players in the Minors, and impressed defensively on the left side of the infield. The Blue Jays love everything about Smith's game and rave about his capacity for making adjustments, viewing the 22-year-old as a future impact player for the organization.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/30-prospects-that-just-missed-the-top-100/c-303363480

Callis has Kevin Smith just outside the top 100.

[vaff87]

Blue Jays: Kevin Smith, SS/3B
The 2017 fourth-rounder tweaked his swing and approach after his pro debut and put up huge numbers in his first full season, hitting .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs and 31 doubles in 129 games between two levels. He also swiped 29 bases, earning him distinction as one of six 20-20 players in the Minors, and impressed defensively on the left side of the infield. The Blue Jays love everything about Smith's game and rave about his capacity for making adjustments, viewing the 22-year-old as a future impact player for the organization.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/30-prospects-that-just-missed-the-top-100/c-303363480

Callis has Kevin Smith just outside the top 100.

I think Smith might get overlooked a little bit because of his boring name.

[BigLeagueChew]

Blue Jays: Kevin Smith, SS/3B
The 2017 fourth-rounder tweaked his swing and approach after his pro debut and put up huge numbers in his first full season, hitting .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs and 31 doubles in 129 games between two levels. He also swiped 29 bases, earning him distinction as one of six 20-20 players in the Minors, and impressed defensively on the left side of the infield. The Blue Jays love everything about Smith's game and rave about his capacity for making adjustments, viewing the 22-year-old as a future impact player for the organization.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/30-prospects-that-just-missed-the-top-100/c-303363480

Callis has Kevin Smith just outside the top 100.

I think Smith might get overlooked a little bit because of his boring name.

He needs the top 100.

Is 23 in July hopefully gets a look at AA and maybe AAA this year.