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2018-19 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#501 » by dagger » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:43 am

Tanner wrote:I have no idea what they want, but I'm sure they'd prefer any American city over Canada.


I don't know about that, but it's unlikely they would sign with a bad team. How many times in any sport have top tier free agents signed with a bad team with no short term hope for improvement. The one exception is probably LeBron moving to the Lakers, but at least in the NBA you just need one more star to lift a team from the lottery to at least nominal contention, and the Lakers already had a few good young players to leverage, which they are trying to do now with AD. Do you think Tavares would have run to the Leafs if he didn't think there were getting close to being a serious Cup challenger? I think the Jays would have to overpay to land a player like that, but there is no amount of money that will bring a top tier FA to a team just embarking on a proper rebuild.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#502 » by SharoneWright » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:58 am

Tanner wrote:An eight year deal for Harper or Machado will cover ages 26-33. They will certainly decline by the end of it, but I don't think either one is that big of a risk to fall of a cliff at that age. Even if you think it will be 3 more years of rebuilding before the Jays are good (I think they can be good a lot sooner but let's say 3 years), then Harper/Machado would be 29 year's old surrounded by a bunch of 20-somethings in Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc. This is a rare instance where the timeline for a long term free agent actually fits a rebuilding team.

I agree that Harper/Machado actually wanting to sign with the Jays is the main hurdle. I have no idea what they want, but I'm sure they'd prefer any American city over Canada. Regardless if no one else is willing to spend big money anymore, then the Jays might be able to get the highest bid without spending the 10/350 that people expected those guys to get. Would they take 8/260? Maybe, depends on what other offers they are getting.

If the rest of the league were spending money like crazy and trying to compete, then I'd say the Jays are absolutely doing the right thing. But the rest of the league is sitting on their wallets clutching on to their top prospects with a vice grip, all while not caring if they lose 100 games while the 5 or so great teams remain great. If there was any time to make a big splash in free agency it is now because it's probably easier to sign Harper than it is to squeeze a top prospect from another team in a trade. Can't be a slave to the market.


This is exactly like how we decided to buy/retain Josh Donaldson on a huge salary last year (JD is a great player!!) when many of us were ahead of the curve. Even if he/Machado is a great player, the TEAM is going nowhere. To build a winning TEAM you need a confluence of players. And a confluence of players you can afford. Even if we could afford Machado for the next 4 years,,, he will be declining just as the reinforcements begin to really produce. And then we have a harder time affording the emergents...

We won't win when Machado is good, and we will struggle to win (or have salary flexibility) when Machado is not very good on the back end of his contract. (Plus, what's the clubhouse dynamic? A King amongst a bunch of serfs? Let the bourgeoisie grow up together...) Much better to harmonize things so your best prospects all begin to peak together, and then you can think about supplementing on the FA marrket.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#503 » by Schad » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:16 am

Tanner wrote:An eight year deal for Harper or Machado will cover ages 26-33. They will certainly decline by the end of it, but I don't think either one is that big of a risk to fall of a cliff at that age. Even if you think it will be 3 more years of rebuilding before the Jays are good (I think they can be good a lot sooner but let's say 3 years), then Harper/Machado would be 29 year's old surrounded by a bunch of 20-somethings in Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc. This is a rare instance where the timeline for a long term free agent actually fits a rebuilding team.


They don't need to fall off a cliff in order to fail to be good value. Harper, in particular, hasn't even been full value for $250m/8 over the past three seasons. Machado is the better bet there, but both still come with far more risk than reward if you're effectively throwing away the first two seasons...and trust me, even with Harper or Machado, there's no way to suddenly just to competitiveness because we have neither the talent nor the available money to do so. Adding one of them would already take us into the range of last year's payroll, something that isn't happening anyway.

I agree that Harper/Machado actually wanting to sign with the Jays is the main hurdle. I have no idea what they want, but I'm sure they'd prefer any American city over Canada. Regardless if no one else is willing to spend big money anymore, then the Jays might be able to get the highest bid without spending the 10/350 that people expected those guys to get. Would they take 8/260? Maybe, depends on what other offers they are getting.


8 years, $260m would need to be the best offer by a solid margin to get them to sign with a team that is rebuilding. It won't be the best offer by a solid margin; it probably won't be the best offer, period.

If the rest of the league were spending money like crazy and trying to compete, then I'd say the Jays are absolutely doing the right thing. But the rest of the league is sitting on their wallets and clutching on to their top prospects with a vice grip. If there was any time to make a big splash in free agency it is now because it's probably easier to sign Harper than it is to squeeze a top prospect from another team in a trade. Can't be a slave to the market.


Teams are sitting on their wallets because making big splashes in free agency has proven to be an objectively bad idea. We shouldn't zag by undertaking objectively bad ideas simply because other teams have wised up. Yeah, there's an inflection point where it stops being such a bad idea, but spending a quarter billion as a value bet when rebuilding isn't that point.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#504 » by Skin Blues » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:15 pm

SharoneWright wrote:We won't win when Machado is good, and we will struggle to win (or have salary flexibility) when Machado is not very good on the back end of his contract.

He's 26. Calling him "not very good" during his age 28/29 seasons is more than a little hyperbolic. Those are prime years. Decline doesn't really happen until age 29 and even then it's very slight. A superstar doesn't instantly become not very good. He'll still be a superstar, in all likelihood, 4 or 5 years into this deal.

I get that teams smartening up and not spending too much in free agency, but I think the needle has swung so far in the opposite direction, that these deals are no longer that bad, or bad at all. Of course, since the entire market is depressed, the cost of a win in free agency needs to be re-assessed and is not the $10M most expected. But even if it's only $7M per win, I think Machado at 8/$260M is a good deal for whoever signs him. He'd need to put up 4.6 WAR per season to earn that which is almost certainly above the mean expected performance. He's probably a 5+ WAR player and is not likely to dip below that over the next 5 years so you don't have to squint to see a ton of potential for surplus value, there. He's averaged >5.5 WAR the past 4 years regardless which variation you look at. Might not be the best option for a team with Vlad and Bo waiting in the wings, and 2019 will still be a lost season. But it would definitely be exciting. Almost 0% of it happening though because I think 8/$260M gets outbid by other competing teams, but we can dream.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#505 » by dagger » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:30 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
SharoneWright wrote:We won't win when Machado is good, and we will struggle to win (or have salary flexibility) when Machado is not very good on the back end of his contract.

He's 26. Calling him "not very good" during his age 28/29 seasons is more than a little hyperbolic. Those are prime years. Decline doesn't really happen until age 29 and even then it's very slight. A superstar doesn't instantly become not very good. He'll still be a superstar, in all likelihood, 4 or 5 years into this deal.

I get that teams smartening up and not spending too much in free agency, but I think the needle has swung so far in the opposite direction, that these deals are no longer that bad, or bad at all. Of course, since the entire market is depressed, the cost of a win in free agency needs to be re-assessed and is not the $10M most expected. But even if it's only $7M per win, I think Machado at 8/$260M is a good deal for whoever signs him. He'd need to put up 4.6 WAR per season to earn that which is almost certainly above the mean expected performance. He's probably a 5+ WAR player and is not likely to dip below that over the next 5 years so you don't have to squint to see a ton of potential for surplus value, there. He's averaged >5.5 WAR the past 4 years regardless which variation you look at. Might not be the best option for a team with Vlad and Bo waiting in the wings, and 2019 will still be a lost season. But it would definitely be exciting. Almost 0% of it happening though because I think 8/$260M gets outbid by other competing teams, but we can dream.


It doesn't make any sense to me to sign either, but at least Harper is an outfielder, an area of weakness for our farm system (although some of our excess in middle infielders could be converted into corner outfielders to be sure). Then again, I'd say of the two, Harper would be less likely than Machado to even consider Toronto. Of course, if we were even flirting with the idea via the rumour mill, it might drive up Harper's price and earn some cred with his agent.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#506 » by SharoneWright » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:31 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
SharoneWright wrote:We won't win when Machado is good, and we will struggle to win (or have salary flexibility) when Machado is not very good on the back end of his contract.

He's 26. Calling him "not very good" during his age 28/29 seasons is more than a little hyperbolic. Those are prime years. Decline doesn't really happen until age 29 and even then it's very slight. A superstar doesn't instantly become not very good. He'll still be a superstar, in all likelihood, 4 or 5 years into this deal.

I get that teams smartening up and not spending too much in free agency, but I think the needle has swung so far in the opposite direction, that these deals are no longer that bad, or bad at all. Of course, since the entire market is depressed, the cost of a win in free agency needs to be re-assessed and is not the $10M most expected. But even if it's only $7M per win, I think Machado at 8/$260M is a good deal for whoever signs him. He'd need to put up 4.6 WAR per season to earn that which is almost certainly above the mean expected performance. He's probably a 5+ WAR player and is not likely to dip below that over the next 5 years so you don't have to squint to see a ton of potential for surplus value, there. He's averaged >5.5 WAR the past 4 years regardless which variation you look at. Might not be the best option for a team with Vlad and Bo waiting in the wings, and 2019 will still be a lost season. But it would definitely be exciting. Almost 0% of it happening though because I think 8/$260M gets outbid by other competing teams, but we can dream.


Fine. He might still be very good, but yes, declining on the back half of his deal. That's the time the Jays will need to have the most financial flexibility if their prospects begin to pan out. I'd always be leary of hamstringing ourselves 4 years, 5 years, 6 years out, no matter who the player is, but especially considering who else we may have to pay or want to pay. There are always new FA options coming round the mountain every year.

And Manny is 27 this summer. So in years 5-8 of any deal, he'll be 31, 32, 33, and 34.

Not disagreeing with you though. The guy is a very good player. And it's not my money. But even if they get Manny on a "value contract" I'm not convinced it's the most effective path to winning a championship.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#507 » by Skin Blues » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:43 pm

SharoneWright wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
SharoneWright wrote:We won't win when Machado is good, and we will struggle to win (or have salary flexibility) when Machado is not very good on the back end of his contract.

He's 26. Calling him "not very good" during his age 28/29 seasons is more than a little hyperbolic. Those are prime years. Decline doesn't really happen until age 29 and even then it's very slight. A superstar doesn't instantly become not very good. He'll still be a superstar, in all likelihood, 4 or 5 years into this deal.

I get that teams smartening up and not spending too much in free agency, but I think the needle has swung so far in the opposite direction, that these deals are no longer that bad, or bad at all. Of course, since the entire market is depressed, the cost of a win in free agency needs to be re-assessed and is not the $10M most expected. But even if it's only $7M per win, I think Machado at 8/$260M is a good deal for whoever signs him. He'd need to put up 4.6 WAR per season to earn that which is almost certainly above the mean expected performance. He's probably a 5+ WAR player and is not likely to dip below that over the next 5 years so you don't have to squint to see a ton of potential for surplus value, there. He's averaged >5.5 WAR the past 4 years regardless which variation you look at. Might not be the best option for a team with Vlad and Bo waiting in the wings, and 2019 will still be a lost season. But it would definitely be exciting. Almost 0% of it happening though because I think 8/$260M gets outbid by other competing teams, but we can dream.


Fine. He might still be very good, but yes, declining on the back half of his deal. That's the time the Jays will need to have the most financial flexibility if their prospects begin to pan out. I'd always be leary of hamstringing ourselves 4 years, 5 years, 6 years out, no matter who the player is, but especially considering who else we may have to pay or want to pay. There are always new FA options coming round the mountain every year.

And Manny is 27 this summer. So in years 5-8 of any deal, he'll be 31, 32, 33, and 34.

It's not ideal, but that's assuming the climate around free agents doesn't change. I believe it will. Teams will adjust to the new market. These are big ships that don't make nimble turns. If the Yankees/Dodgers are out of the big Free Agent game, other teams will fill that void once they see how much cheaper it is and get ownership approval. At $400M it made no sense for them to sign Machado. At less than $300M, it probably does. There's so much surplus value potential in an 8 year $260M deal for Machado that the fact his best year occurs during a lost season is not a huge deal. I'm not advocating for it, but it's not as crazy an idea as it seemed like it would have been entering the offseason.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#508 » by Tanner » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:27 pm

Schad wrote:Teams are sitting on their wallets because making big splashes in free agency has proven to be an objectively bad idea. We shouldn't zag by undertaking objectively bad ideas simply because other teams have wised up. Yeah, there's an inflection point where it stops being such a bad idea, but spending a quarter billion as a value bet when rebuilding isn't that point.


But if teams are smartening up about free agency then it should lower the cost of free agents, making it more reasonable to sign them. Going after free agents when the market is high is when you’re more prone to make a big blunder. If Machado or Harper can be had for a reasonable cost (no idea what that would be unless I knew what they were turning down), then it makes sense to get them regardless of team direction because they wouldn’t be preventing more rebuilding and they are young enough to still be good by the time the team is ready to contend.

I don’t mind going the young route and waiting on prospects but you have to jump on opportunities too.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#509 » by phillipmike » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:15 pm

Another way to look at the Galvis signing is the Jays traded 4 years of Diaz (28 years old) for 6 years of Thornton and signed a comparable player in Galvis (29 years old) for potentially 2 years.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=6609,15937

If you prorate Diaz's PAs to Galvis you would get 2.9 WAR compared to Galvis' 2.8 WAR. Comparable players similar in salary, though less control with Galvis but gaining 6 years of Thornton. Diaz's value is a bit more balanced as he is a positive contributor with the glove and the bat whereas Galvis brings more of his value with the glove and is below average with the bat. As Davidi argue earlier the glove is where the Jays should benefit from with Galvis as he will help your pitchers get outs more than Diaz and/or Gurriel at SS.

Good piece of gaining value and asset management.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#510 » by polo007 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:29 pm

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#511 » by So_Fresh » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:36 pm

polo007 wrote:
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Going to be a looooooooooong season folks!
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#512 » by phillipmike » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:53 pm

So_Fresh wrote:
polo007 wrote:
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Going to be a looooooooooong season folks!


Its essentially the same lineup as last year except you swap Martin out for Jansen who is projected to be better than the 0.6 WAR Martin put up last season. Diaz's 1.6 WAR for Galvis' 1.2 WAR plus a young player in Gurriel. And you have the hype of Vladdy over Donaldson and the 35 games he gave you last year.

Barring injury this year's on field product should be much better than what we saw in 2018, both short term and long term. Not to mention Jays fans should be more excited to watch Vladdy and Jansen play than Donaldson and Martin.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#513 » by Schad » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:13 pm

Yeah, we'll lose about the same number of games, in all likelihood, but it'll be far more pleasant viewing. A rebuilding team with good young talent that kinda sucks is more watchable than a theoretically competing team with old dudes that kinda sucks.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#514 » by Schad » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:25 pm

Skin Blues wrote:It's not ideal, but that's assuming the climate around free agents doesn't change. I believe it will. Teams will adjust to the new market. These are big ships that don't make nimble turns. If the Yankees/Dodgers are out of the big Free Agent game, other teams will fill that void once they see how much cheaper it is and get ownership approval. At $400M it made no sense for them to sign Machado. At less than $300M, it probably does. There's so much surplus value potential in an 8 year $260M deal for Machado that the fact his best year occurs during a lost season is not a huge deal. I'm not advocating for it, but it's not as crazy an idea as it seemed like it would have been entering the offseason.


Does depend a bit on when we're expecting to compete. 2020 is still pretty unlikely, IMO; we have too many FAs, and if we're signing Machado and then running out the contracts on the 2020 FAs, we're completely nuts.

$195m/6 or something for his ages 28-33 seasons* stands a pretty good chance of being a not-bad deal, but I'm leery of suggesting that any player has a good-to-great chance of offering a bunch of surplus value at approx. 4 WAR/year worth of contract in that age range. Machado's certainly a better bet than most (not sure that Harper is, frankly), but the list of players in that age range exceeding that threshold recently isn't crazy-long, and the list of players who failed to make the grade features a bunch of guys who once looked like good bets.

*Machado's less than a week past the age cutoff, so it's 28.5-33.5 if you want to be over-precise.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#515 » by dagger » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:30 pm

Schad wrote:Yeah, we'll lose about the same number of games, in all likelihood, but it'll be far more pleasant viewing. A rebuilding team with good young talent that kinda sucks is more watchable than a theoretically competing team with old dudes that kinda sucks.


And yes, a young player's improvement over the course of a season is much more encouraging than having to watch somebody like Morales struggle out of the gate and blame his new glasses for his troubles. Even when he rounds into somewhat better form around June, you're left feeling cheated.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#516 » by wamco » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:33 pm

Spend some money Atkins
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#517 » by polo007 » Fri Feb 1, 2019 12:09 am

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#518 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Feb 1, 2019 3:29 am

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#519 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Feb 1, 2019 6:50 pm

Atkins: Blue Jays still seeking pitching as spring training approaches

“In the past three-and-a-half years it’s all been about (general) talent acquisition and now we’re at the point where we really need to be focused on pitching in every potential acquisition.”

Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 14, but as Atkins noted that’s not a hard deadline for the Blue Jays.

“There’s obviously a lot that could occur in spring training even, and things we could do throughout the season as we continue to try to build depth and make the organization better.”


https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/atkins-blue-jays-still-seeking-pitching-spring-training-approaches/
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#520 » by polo007 » Sat Feb 2, 2019 11:47 pm

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