2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Balkman32]

Durant is a joke. Can’t wait to watch him fail after he leaves the Warriors.

[slick_watts]

How dare you compare jokic to Roberson. I'm talking player type. Alot (every) of teams would want a center who can score from anywhere on the floor, they can run their offense through, who cleans up the glass. Not many teams (any) are looking for a wing who can't shoot at a high school level but defends really well to play significant minutes.

it's the same thing. jokic possesses a skill-set usually found in guards. roberson possesses a skillset usually found in bigs. just like having a player like jokic allows the nuggets to do things on offense no other team can do, having a player like roberson allows the thunder to do things on defense no other team can do.

making the argument that the evidence for roberson not being valuable is that his unique skillset isn't present on other teams is tantamount to making the same argument about nikola jokic. there isn't another nikola jokic on another team, so other teams must not value this type of player.

Has the schedule got harder yet or still waiting for that? They haven't missed Roberson at all. Oh, and Westbrook has been dominating lately, btw. Arguably the best playmaker in the league if you haven't noticed....

westbrook can do whatever he wants, but he won't match previous seasons (or, come close) impact unless he scores more efficiently.

of course they miss andre roberson. this would be one of the best defenses ever if he was around.

[hardenASG13]

How dare you compare jokic to Roberson. I'm talking player type. Alot (every) of teams would want a center who can score from anywhere on the floor, they can run their offense through, who cleans up the glass. Not many teams (any) are looking for a wing who can't shoot at a high school level but defends really well to play significant minutes.

it's the same thing. jokic possesses a skill-set usually found in guards. roberson possesses a skillset usually found in bigs. just like having a player like jokic allows the nuggets to do things on offense no other team can do, having a player like roberson allows the thunder to do things on defense no other team can do.

making the argument that the evidence for roberson not being valuable is that his unique skillset isn't present on other teams is tantamount to making the same argument about nikola jokic. there isn't another nikola jokic on another team, so other teams must not value this type of player.

Has the schedule got harder yet or still waiting for that? They haven't missed Roberson at all. Oh, and Westbrook has been dominating lately, btw. Arguably the best playmaker in the league if you haven't noticed....

westbrook can do whatever he wants, but he won't match previous seasons (or, come close) impact unless he scores more efficiently.

of course they miss andre roberson. this would be one of the best defenses ever if he was around.

It's not the same thing. Yes they both are unique players. Jokic has skills that are coveted league wide, and every team would gladly pay him the max to be one of their franchise guys if he were available. Roberson was just a free agent. Nobody wanted to give him starter money, except okc on the cheap. Teams don't look to bring in defensive wings that can't shoot to play 30mpg. Nobody at the deadline is trying to do that. It's not a coveted skill league wide for a starter. I'm sure there are lots of athletic wings who aren't in the league that can defend better than alot of the backup wings in the league, but they don't get contracts because they can't shoot or dribble.

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder (okc is a favorite almost every game, regardless of opponent). That Westbrook Schroeder combo is really a big problem. Seems to be killing them in the standings.

[slick_watts]

It's not the same thing. Yes they both are unique players. Jokic has skills that are coveted league wide, and every team would gladly pay him the max to be one of their franchise guys if he were available. Roberson was just a free agent. Nobody wanted to give him starter money, except okc on the cheap. Teams don't look to bring in defensive wings that can't shoot to play 30mpg. Nobody at the deadline is trying to do that. It's not a coveted skill league wide for a starter. I'm sure there are lots of athletic wings who aren't in the league that can defend better than alot of the backup wings in the league, but they don't get contracts because they can't shoot or dribble.

there are no defensive wings of andre roberson's caliber who cannot shoot for any teams to trade for. he's a unique player. just like jokic. you're making a lot of straw man claims about teams not pursuing a player like andre roberson-- how can they when there aren't any? roberson last year probably had as big a defensive impact as any wing in the last 10 seasons. those don't grow on trees.

how do you know what andre roberson was being offered? he was a restricted free agent. everyone knew okc would match whatever he got.

as always, you make a lot of unsourced assumptions about what teams want.

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

That Westbrook Schroeder combo is really a big problem. Seems to be killing them in the standings.

it's cute how you come out of the woodwork after one or two games this combination happens to be successful. the fact of the matter is the starters w/schroder are still 5pp100 worse than the starters w/ferguson. so, westbrook-schroder combo is hurting the team on average any time it's on the court with the starters at ferguson's expense.

this is closer than it was a few weeks ago, mind you, mainly because the starters defense has struggled a bit. starting to miss andre roberson.

[hardenASG13]

It's not the same thing. Yes they both are unique players. Jokic has skills that are coveted league wide, and every team would gladly pay him the max to be one of their franchise guys if he were available. Roberson was just a free agent. Nobody wanted to give him starter money, except okc on the cheap. Teams don't look to bring in defensive wings that can't shoot to play 30mpg. Nobody at the deadline is trying to do that. It's not a coveted skill league wide for a starter. I'm sure there are lots of athletic wings who aren't in the league that can defend better than alot of the backup wings in the league, but they don't get contracts because they can't shoot or dribble.

there are no defensive wings of andre roberson's caliber who cannot shoot for any teams to trade for. he's a unique player. just like jokic. you're making a lot of straw man claims about teams not pursuing a player like andre roberson-- how can they when there aren't any? roberson last year probably had as big a defensive impact as any wing in the last 10 seasons. those don't grow on trees.

how do you know what andre roberson was being offered? he was a restricted free agent. everyone knew okc would match whatever he got.

as always, you make a lot of unsourced assumptions about what teams want.

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

That Westbrook Schroeder combo is really a big problem. Seems to be killing them in the standings.

it's cute how you come out of the woodwork after one or two games this combination happens to be successful. the fact of the matter is the starters w/schroder are still 5pp100 worse than the starters w/ferguson. so, westbrook-schroder combo is hurting the team on average any time it's on the court with the starters at ferguson's expense.

this is closer than it was a few weeks ago, mind you, mainly because the starters defense has struggled a bit. starting to miss andre roberson.

I'm not coming out of the woodwork after a couple games. It's 51 games into the season, and okc is 15 games over .500. Unfortunately the starters can't play the whole game bc they aren't robots. Schroeder comes off the bench. He's by far the best player on the bench, plays alot. Ferguson does too. It's working, the team is winning alot of games. You guys manufacture problems that are non existent.

[SecondTake]

It's not the same thing. Yes they both are unique players. Jokic has skills that are coveted league wide, and every team would gladly pay him the max to be one of their franchise guys if he were available. Roberson was just a free agent. Nobody wanted to give him starter money, except okc on the cheap. Teams don't look to bring in defensive wings that can't shoot to play 30mpg. Nobody at the deadline is trying to do that. It's not a coveted skill league wide for a starter. I'm sure there are lots of athletic wings who aren't in the league that can defend better than alot of the backup wings in the league, but they don't get contracts because they can't shoot or dribble.

there are no defensive wings of andre roberson's caliber who cannot shoot for any teams to trade for. he's a unique player. just like jokic. you're making a lot of straw man claims about teams not pursuing a player like andre roberson-- how can they when there aren't any? roberson last year probably had as big a defensive impact as any wing in the last 10 seasons. those don't grow on trees.

how do you know what andre roberson was being offered? he was a restricted free agent. everyone knew okc would match whatever he got.

as always, you make a lot of unsourced assumptions about what teams want.

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

That Westbrook Schroeder combo is really a big problem. Seems to be killing them in the standings.

it's cute how you come out of the woodwork after one or two games this combination happens to be successful. the fact of the matter is the starters w/schroder are still 5pp100 worse than the starters w/ferguson. so, westbrook-schroder combo is hurting the team on average any time it's on the court with the starters at ferguson's expense.

this is closer than it was a few weeks ago, mind you, mainly because the starters defense has struggled a bit. starting to miss andre roberson.

I'm not coming out of the woodwork after a couple games. It's 51 games into the season, and okc is 15 games over .500. Unfortunately the starters can't play the whole game bc they aren't robots. Schroeder comes off the bench. He's by far the best player on the bench, plays alot. Ferguson does too. It's working, the team is winning alot of games. You guys manufacture problems that are non existent.

Who would have guessed that a team is better with a starter than a bench player? I guess slick would like us to play a 5 man rotation 48 minutes a game. They all have better net ratings than anyone off the bench. Why didn't Donovan ever think of that?

[Dadouv47]

It's not the same thing. Yes they both are unique players. Jokic has skills that are coveted league wide, and every team would gladly pay him the max to be one of their franchise guys if he were available. Roberson was just a free agent. Nobody wanted to give him starter money, except okc on the cheap. Teams don't look to bring in defensive wings that can't shoot to play 30mpg. Nobody at the deadline is trying to do that. It's not a coveted skill league wide for a starter. I'm sure there are lots of athletic wings who aren't in the league that can defend better than alot of the backup wings in the league, but they don't get contracts because they can't shoot or dribble.

there are no defensive wings of andre roberson's caliber who cannot shoot for any teams to trade for. he's a unique player. just like jokic. you're making a lot of straw man claims about teams not pursuing a player like andre roberson-- how can they when there aren't any? roberson last year probably had as big a defensive impact as any wing in the last 10 seasons. those don't grow on trees.

how do you know what andre roberson was being offered? he was a restricted free agent. everyone knew okc would match whatever he got.

as always, you make a lot of unsourced assumptions about what teams want.

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

That Westbrook Schroeder combo is really a big problem. Seems to be killing them in the standings.

it's cute how you come out of the woodwork after one or two games this combination happens to be successful. the fact of the matter is the starters w/schroder are still 5pp100 worse than the starters w/ferguson. so, westbrook-schroder combo is hurting the team on average any time it's on the court with the starters at ferguson's expense.

this is closer than it was a few weeks ago, mind you, mainly because the starters defense has struggled a bit. starting to miss andre roberson.

I'm not coming out of the woodwork after a couple games. It's 51 games into the season, and okc is 15 games over .500. Unfortunately the starters can't play the whole game bc they aren't robots. Schroeder comes off the bench. He's by far the best player on the bench, plays alot. Ferguson does too. It's working, the team is winning alot of games. You guys manufacture problems that are non existent.

Noel is better than Schroeder and it' not close

[slick_watts]

Unfortunately the starters can't play the whole game bc they aren't robots.

ok so it seems like you're acknowledging that ferguson + westbrook is superior to schroder + westbrook? that's progress.

up until quite recently it was schroder + westbrook closing games and you argued that this was a wise thing to do. have you changed your position?

Schroeder comes off the bench. He's by far the best player on the bench

noel's clearly more impactful.

It's working, the team is winning alot of games. You guys manufacture problems that are non existent.

well, i'm glad that the team 'is winning alot of games'. no reason to look to improve. might as well raise the banner now. it can say 'won alot of games'.

[slick_watts]

Who would have guessed that a team is better with a starter than a bench player? I guess slick would like us to play a 5 man rotation 48 minutes a game. They all have better net ratings than anyone off the bench. Why didn't Donovan ever think of that?

sit down, kiddo.

[ThunderBolt]

The summer Dre was a free agent lots of teams had little cash available from screwing themselves wih the cap spike. It was documented by Royce(?) that Chicago really wanted Andre in the Taj Gibson/cam Payne trade. Alvin Gentry made a comment that Dre was the ultimate glue guy for our team last year.

Andre isn’t a max player but lots of teams would like to have him on the right contract. I think Presti probably could have signed him cheaper but that’s not presti’s philosophy if you are a core member.

[BlockCity]

The summer Dre was a free agent lots of teams had little cash available from screwing themselves wih the cap spike. It was documented by Royce(?) that Chicago really wanted Andre in the Taj Gibson/cam Payne trade. Alvin Gentry made a comment that Dre was the ultimate glue guy for our team last year.

Andre isn’t a max player but lots of teams would like to have him on the right contract. I think Presti probably could have signed him cheaper but that’s not presti’s philosophy if you are a core member.

Not to mention, if you look after your players, they are more likely to stay long term.

I'm sure Andre will be keen on re-signing end of next year

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

[hardenASG13]

Unfortunately the starters can't play the whole game bc they aren't robots.

ok so it seems like you're acknowledging that ferguson + westbrook is superior to schroder + westbrook? that's progress.

up until quite recently it was schroder + westbrook closing games and you argued that this was a wise thing to do. have you changed your position?

Schroeder comes off the bench. He's by far the best player on the bench

noel's clearly more impactful.

It's working, the team is winning alot of games. You guys manufacture problems that are non existent.

well, i'm glad that the team 'is winning alot of games'. no reason to look to improve. might as well raise the banner now. it can say 'won alot of games'.

Don't think I argued that, you're deep in your own head. Unfortunately Westbrook has returned to being great (in a different way), playing Schroeder is working, and the team is winning lots of games.

Noels (I like him alot as a backup C) job is way easier than Schroeders, guys. Think about what you are saying. The only place the grass is greener this season is golden State. But nitpick away fellas

[SecondTake]

Who would have guessed that a team is better with a starter than a bench player? I guess slick would like us to play a 5 man rotation 48 minutes a game. They all have better net ratings than anyone off the bench. Why didn't Donovan ever think of that?

sit down, kiddo.

Maybe you shouldn't be bashing Schroder for not being as impactful as one of our starters. Maybe in your mind Schroder is 'just' a top 10 backup PG in the league, would still put us ahead of another 20. (Sure hope you don't think he's actually worse than that)

[Dadouv47]

Who would have guessed that a team is better with a starter than a bench player? I guess slick would like us to play a 5 man rotation 48 minutes a game. They all have better net ratings than anyone off the bench. Why didn't Donovan ever think of that?

sit down, kiddo.

Maybe you shouldn't be bashing Schroder for not being as impactful as one of our starters. Maybe in your mind Schroder is 'just' a top 10 backup PG in the league, would still put us ahead of another 20. (Sure hope you don't think he's actually worse than that)

Even if Schroeder is a top 5 back up PG in this league, he still plays 28 minutes/game while the others back up PG don't have such an huge role on their respective teams. So basically Schroeder plays significant minutes against opponents best players and that's when he gets exposed on defense and becomes a liability for our team.
So yeah it's a bit unfair to compare him to some back up PGs that only plays against second units but he isn't good enough to play for a team 28 minutes/night and to be paid 15 millions/year.

[Pillendreher]

Russ' FT drawing has recovered a bit lately:



I sincerely hope this is him finding his groove offensively a little bit and not just some random outlier.

[Pillendreher]

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

I have to disagree with this because the data doesn't support this conclusion. If the defensive slippage were solely due to facing stronger opponents, it would have happened a long time ago (it's not like the Thunder only played trash offensive teams for the first 40ish games) and would be restricted to good offensive teams. What really caused this drop in DRtG was that recent stretch of 6 games where they allowed a 119.5 DRtG vs teams that score 109.4 points per 100 possessions on average.



As you can see, that stretch included just one good defensive performance (2nd match vs SAS), but multiple absolutely horrible ones. What's also apparent: The defense has remained pretty steady throughout the season, no matter the opponent.

[Old Man Game]

For some reason they team seemed to literally stop giving a **** at all about defense for 2 weeks or so there. Remember Atlanta just rolling to the rim all game long like they were playing against a JUCO team or something. Was seriously pathetic.

[Pillendreher]

For some reason they team seemed to literally stop giving a **** at all about defense for 2 weeks or so there. Remember Atlanta just rolling to the rim all game long like they were playing against a JUCO team or something. Was seriously pathetic.

The script completely flipped:



If you restart the process of calcuating the offensive and defensive output, starting with the Minnesota loss after the Washington loss (game 40 of the season), you get about the same margin as before, only this time it's on the offensive end:

Games 1-39: -3.1 ORtG | +7.2 DRtG | +4.1 NetRtG
Games 40-51: +7.9 ORtG | -4.1 DRtG | +3.8 NetRtG

[slick_watts]

Either way, I'll keep waiting for the collapse once the schedule gets harder

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

I have to disagree with this because the data doesn't support this conclusion. If the defensive slippage were solely due to facing stronger opponents, it would have happened a long time ago (it's not like the Thunder only played trash offensive teams for the first 40ish games) and would be restricted to good offensive teams. What really caused this drop in DRtG was that recent stretch of 6 games where they allowed a 119.5 DRtG vs teams that score 109.4 points per 100 possessions on average.



As you can see, that stretch included just one good defensive performance (2nd match vs SAS), but multiple absolutely horrible ones. What's also apparent: The defense has remained pretty steady throughout the season, no matter the opponent.

in the last 13 games (from the time the thunder were 9th best defense all-time) the thunder's average opponent offense was +.6pp100 relative to league average, about 1pp100 better than before. they've dropped 2.8pp100 since then relative to league average.

yes, no duh, quality of opponent is not 'sole reason' for such a dramatic slippage. even after those six games you are highlighting the thunder are allowing 109.8pp100 to teams putting up 109.9pp100 on the seasons-- obviously still not the same defensive output as before.

[Pillendreher]

it already has started. the defense went from a top 10 defense of all time to top 75 (losing about 3.0 pp100 relative to league average) in a bit over a month. paul george's ascension has buoyed a smaller resurgence on offense, but the team is now in the 4-5 srs range which is about where i had them assuming losing melo / gaining noel could offset losing 'dre.

I have to disagree with this because the data doesn't support this conclusion. If the defensive slippage were solely due to facing stronger opponents, it would have happened a long time ago (it's not like the Thunder only played trash offensive teams for the first 40ish games) and would be restricted to good offensive teams. What really caused this drop in DRtG was that recent stretch of 6 games where they allowed a 119.5 DRtG vs teams that score 109.4 points per 100 possessions on average.



As you can see, that stretch included just one good defensive performance (2nd match vs SAS), but multiple absolutely horrible ones. What's also apparent: The defense has remained pretty steady throughout the season, no matter the opponent.

in the last 13 games (from the time the thunder were 9th best defense all-time) the thunder's average opponent offense was +.6pp100 relative to league average, about 1pp100 better than before. they've dropped 2.8pp100 since then relative to league average.

yes, no duh, quality of opponent is not 'sole reason' for such a dramatic slippage. even after those six games you are highlighting the thunder are allowing 109.8pp100 to teams putting up 109.9pp100 on the seasons-- obviously still not the same defensive output as before.

Because they're playing worse defense. It's as simple as that.