Xatticus wrote:Those are statistics. His metrics have been declining.
Vucevic's eFG% at the end of each month:
Oct: .608
Nov: .590
Dec: .565
Jan: .555
His eFG% up to Dec. 1: .590
His eFG% since Dec. 1: .530
Vucevic's TS% at the end of each month:
Oct: .639
Nov: .620
Dec: .590
Jan: .572
His TS% up to Dec. 1: .620
His TS% since Dec. 1: .537
Vucevic's career TS%: .533
League average TS%: .558
Orlando Magic TS%: .540
Fournier's TS% since Dec. 1: .547
He hasn't been particularly efficient since the first couple months of the season, but his season statistics are still buoyed by those first couple months. There is no doubt that his efficiency metrics are regressing towards the mean. The important question regards what that mean is. If the new mean is the same as the old mean, an extension would quickly become a huge problem.
You’re being a little disingenuous with the numbers.
1. You said Vucevic’s metrics have steadily declined. This isn’t accurate.
2. You said Vucevic’s metrics have declined because he’s taking more midrange jumpers. This isn’t accurate
3. You said Vucevic hasn’t been particularly efficient since the first two months. This isn’t accurate.
Vucevic EFG% by monthOct: .608
Nov: .585
Dec: .518
Jan: .538
Vucevic TS% by monthOct: .639
Nov: .613
Dec: .535
Jan: .554
Vucevic Career MarksEFG%: .513
TS%: .533
So as you can see, Vucevic had 1.5 great months in Oct and Nov, then had a “bad” month in December and then bounced back with a very good January.
October is only a 7 game month, so we can’t consider that a full month since most teams play 15-16 games in a normal month. I also put “bad” in quotes for December because it was actually right in line with his career numbers.
It’s unfair to say Vucevic’s numbers have steadily declined considering January was better than December and what he did in January was more efficient than his career numbers. Beyond that, I think it’s worth noting that he did suffer that sprained ankle in December, missed a game and then had three pretty poor games in a row coming off the injury.
Let’s look at Vuc’s shooting zones by month.
October13.3 FGA per game
38.3% of shots at the rim: 5.1 per game at .750%
22.6% of shots in the paint: 3.0 per game at .429%
27.0% of shots from midrange: 3.6 per game at .400%
12.0% of shots from 3PT: 1.6 per game at .636%
2.9 FT per game at .850%
November16.5 FGA per game
29.1% of shots at the rim: 4.8 per game at .750%
30.0% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .468%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.4 per game at .564%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.4 per game at .364%
3.1 FT per game at .840%
December16.4 FGA per game
29.9% of shots at the rim: 4.9 per game at .610%
29.9% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .492%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.3 per game at .450%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.3 per game at .325%
2.7 FT per game at .688%
January18.4 FGA per game
31.5% of shots at the rim: 5.8 per game at .685%
31.0% of shots in the paint: 5.7 per game at .462%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.8 per game at .400%
16.8% of shots from 3PT: 3.1 per game at .380%
2.5 FT per game at .725%
CareerAt Rim: .656%
In Paint: .471%
Midrange: .433%
3PT: .332%
FT: .735%
So as you can see Vuc’s number of midrange attempts were actually the lowest they’ve been all season in December which was his least efficient month of the season.
So what caused the big drop in efficiency in December?
Right off the bat it’s very noticeable that Vucevic only shot 61% at the rim in December. This is lower than his career mark of .656% and significantly lower than the low 70%s marks he’s put up the last two years. This was pretty obviously an unsustainable negative blip that could be attributed to small sample size noise and possibly also to the ankle injury. Vucevic immediately jumped back up to a much better 69% at the rim in January.
Another area where Vucevic noticeably dipped that has nothing to do with his shot selection is his FT%.
After shooting 85% in October and 84% in November, he slumped down to just 69% in December and 72% in January. That 16% drop in FT% from Oct/Nov to Dec led to a nearly 3% drop in his TS%. Again, this has literally nothing to do with shot selection. He simply bricked more free throws than he did earlier in the year and more than he normally has the previous three seasons.
He actually shot even more shots at the rim and in the paint in January than he did in those first 1.5 hot months, the issue primarily is that he’s missing a lot more FTs and he isn’t finishing quite as well as he’s shown to be capable of the last two years.
His overall percentage of midrange shots has been completely static for 3 months. The perception is that he’s taking more because he took fewer threes in January, but the amount of midrange was the exact same as his hot months.
