2018-19 Offseason Thread

[BigLeagueChew]

Pitching left by free agency(age/fwar in 2018)

Dallas Keuchel (31, 3.6)
Clay Buchholz (34, 1.9)
Jeremy Hellickson (32, 1.2)
Brett Anderson (31, 0.9)
James Shields (37, 0.8)
Edwin Jackson (35, 0.7)
Francisco Liriano (35, 0.3)
Doug Fister (35, 0.3)
Bartolo Colon (46, 0.2)
Yovani Gallardo (33, 0.1)
Sam Howard (25, 0.0)
Chris Tillman (31, -0.4)
Ervin Santana (36, -0.5)
Gio Gonzalez (33, 2.0)

Craig Kimbrel (31, 1.5)
Tony Sipp (35, 0.9)
Nick Vincent (32, 0.7)
Sergio Romo (36, 0.5)
Jake Diekman (32, 0.5)
Aaron Loup (31, 0.3)
Adam Warren (31, 0.3)
John Axford (36, 0.2)
Bud Norris (34, 0.2)
Ryan Madson (38, 0.2)
more...

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

[wamco]

Better options out there still than Richard and shoemaker

[Schad]

There are better options out there. However, it's quite clear that we're aiming to reduce payroll and long-term salary commitments, which shouldn't be surprising given that revenues will probably drop substantially while we're rebuilding. It's also not terribly sensible to throw substantial money at old dudes when you aren't going to be competitive, so we aren't doing that.

[vaff87]

Should sign Edwin Jackson. I’m sure he would like to play for another team. I believe we had him, but traded him away immediately and he never got to play for us, iirc.

[BigLeagueChew]

There are better options out there. However, it's quite clear that we're aiming to reduce payroll and long-term salary commitments, which shouldn't be surprising given that revenues will probably drop substantially while we're rebuilding. It's also not terribly sensible to throw substantial money at old dudes when you aren't going to be competitive, so we aren't doing that.

You're leaning more towards a trade over free agency then.

[I_Like_Dirt]

You're leaning more towards a trade over free agency then.

I won't speak for Schad, but it's not even about trades. Trades will get rid of the better players on the roster, not add more, at least in the immediate. Other players will come back in those trades, sure, but mostly the signings are going to be (and should be) short term relatively small contracts to the players that will accept them that management feels have reasonable potential to outperform those contracts in order to potentially trade them later. The thing with significant free agent signings is that you can't actually go out and make a couple of them every single offseason. The money runs out eventually and you generally get the best value on those contracts up front so the idea is to time the front end of those contracts with when the team is actually ready to really start winning rather than slightly improving the team when it doesn't matter anyway in an attempt to chase 77 wins creating bloated contracts at a later point when the team might just want to start signing help.

[BigLeagueChew]

You're leaning more towards a trade over free agency then.

I won't speak for Schad, but it's not even about trades. Trades will get rid of the better players on the roster, not add more, at least in the immediate. Other players will come back in those trades, sure, but mostly the signings are going to be (and should be) short term relatively small contracts to the players that will accept them that management feels have reasonable potential to outperform those contracts in order to potentially trade them later. The thing with significant free agent signings is that you can't actually go out and make a couple of them every single offseason. The money runs out eventually and you generally get the best value on those contracts up front so the idea is to time the front end of those contracts with when the team is actually ready to really start winning rather than slightly improving the team when it doesn't matter anyway in an attempt to chase 77 wins creating bloated contracts at a later point when the team might just want to start signing help.

Just trying to forecast our next move.

Am not expecting a big free agent signing or anything but would go with a few invites to spring training on a number of guys like axford, clippard. I'd be entertained by Bartolo Colon getting a shot here even though his era and fip are now in the 5's, small moves like that with 1 year deals or invites and the possibility of trades.

[Schad]

Oh definitely; I would expect us to still hand out some ST invites and the like. Part of the reason we haven't is that our 40-man is fairly crowded with people we don't want to DFA...some of those younger pitchers will need to make the roster, as relievers if not starters.

[BigLeagueChew]

Oh definitely; I would expect us to still hand out some ST invites and the like. Part of the reason we haven't is that our 40-man is fairly crowded with people we don't want to DFA...some of those younger pitchers will need to make the roster, as relievers if not starters.

Some roster moves around Pompey, Urena, Maile or Reese. Pompey is out of options.

[polo007]

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[wamco]

Taking on bad contracts to get prospects or signing free agents that may have actual value come trade deadline time would only speed up the rebuild. If we waited a month shoe and Richard prob would be minor league deals like granderson and liriano

[Schad]

Taking on bad contracts to get prospects or signing free agents that may have actual value come trade deadline time would only speed up the rebuild. If we waited a month shoe and Richard prob would be minor league deals like granderson and liriano

Here's the thing about minor league deals: they aren't all created equal. All it effectively means is that the player does not occupy a roster spot, and isn't guaranteed money prior to Opening Day...if they make the team, their contracts become guaranteed for a pre-agreed figure, not just the minimum. If Granderson makes the Marlins' roster (a good bet), he'll earn between $1.75m and $2m. Liriano is scheduled to make $1.8m to $3.3m depending on what incentives he hits.

Richard, on the other hand, is actually cheaper than either of them. He's making $3m, but the Padres are paying $1.5m of that. Shoemaker costs a bit more, but there's a good reason...he has an extra year of arbitration left if he does well, so it's an upside play that you don't have available with the likes of Liriano/Granderson, which is why someone was likely going to hand him a guaranteed deal.

[wamco]

Sure, but generally the salary is going to lower. I’d much rather the jays sign a gio gonzo and bucholtz/hellickson and flip them at deadline

[wamco]

I’d honestly rather go with 2 of them as plan a.
Plan b would be SRF AnD Pantone
Plan c would be shoe and Richard as they are gonna be a complete waste of time and money as a sp

[Schad]

I’d honestly rather go with 2 of them as plan a.
Plan b would be SRF AnD Pantone
Plan c would be shoe and Richard as they are gonna be a complete waste of time and money as a sp

Gio Gonzalez is after a multi-year deal worth more than $10m AAV. 2018 was the fourth-straight year that his FIP/xFIP got worse, and he's now one of the softest-tossing starters in the majors. His average fastball velocity was lower than that of Clayton Richard for the second straight year, who is the dictionary definition of a soft-tossing lefty.

As for Shoemaker, I don't know why he's a complete waste of time if Hellickson isn't. When healthy, he's actually been good: his career numbers equate to more than 2.5 fWAR per 180 IP, which means he's been decidedly above-average when actually on the mound. Hellickson's at 1.6 fWAR per 180 IP career; Shoemaker is absolutely more of a risk, given his injury woes, but if you're looking for someone who can be flipped at the deadline for something of value, you're better off betting on him to be healthy than betting on Hellickson to be anything other than mediocre. Even during his weirdly successful 2017 season, Hellickson fetched Garrett Cleavinger (a minor league reliever with control issues), Hyun Soo Kim (a struggling corner OF that was mostly in the deal for financial reasons, and let go at the end of the year) and IFA bonus money, so he's no great cash cow.

[vaff87]

I’d honestly rather go with 2 of them as plan a.
Plan b would be SRF AnD Pantone
Plan c would be shoe and Richard as they are gonna be a complete waste of time and money as a sp

Gio Gonzalez is after a multi-year deal worth more than $10m AAV. 2018 was the fourth-straight year that his FIP/xFIP got worse, and he's now one of the softest-tossing starters in the majors. His average fastball velocity was lower than that of Clayton Richard for the second straight year, who is the dictionary definition of a soft-tossing lefty.

As for Shoemaker, I don't know why he's a complete waste of time if Hellickson isn't. When healthy, he's actually been good: his career numbers equate to more than 2.5 fWAR per 180 IP, which means he's been decidedly above-average when actually on the mound. Hellickson's at 1.6 fWAR per 180 IP career; Shoemaker is absolutely more of a risk, given his injury woes, but if you're looking for someone who can be flipped at the deadline for something of value, you're better off betting on him to be healthy than betting on Hellickson to be anything other than mediocre. Even during his weirdly successful 2017 season, Hellickson fetched Garrett Cleavinger (a minor league reliever with control issues), Hyun Soo Kim (a struggling corner OF that was mostly in the deal for financial reasons, and let go at the end of the year) and IFA bonus money, so he's no great cash cow.

Just found this random: Shoemaker’s career ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all identical at 3.93.

[hst420]

65-97

Okay next year..

[Lateral Quicks]

They certainly need to make it harder to manipulate the service clock. The Jays are doing the right thing under the current rules by keeping Vlad down, but he clearly should be on the opening day roster if it's purely a question of performance. It's the rules that need to change.

[phillipmike]

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[BigLeagueChew]

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Mystery team was after him yesterday. his career numbers against right handed batters are outstanding, however last year both lefties and right handed batters hit him for over .700 OPS. It would seem he's lost a bit on his slider compared to his days with the Giants. Was also on Tampa with our new coach.