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Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1201 » by payitforward » Wed Feb 6, 2019 1:45 am

80sballboy wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21

This is interesting. If we make the playoffs, there's a little financial payoff for Ted -- not much to tell the truth. But something. &, I suppose, a little non-financial payoff as well -- pride.

But, we are 22-31. The odds are small that we make the playoffs. & if we don't make the playoffs, what difference does it make to Ted whether we are "worse this year?" How does it affect him if we're worse? Not at all.

If anything, in fact, given that we miss the playoffs the worse we are the better our chances of making the playoffs in the future, even if only because we have a higher draft pick in June -- as well as a better chance that we are bumped to Zion. IOW, in a sense, if we do miss the playoffs then the worse we are the better it is for Ted!

For Ernie, OTOH, it's definitely worse for us not to make the playoffs. It might cost him his job. For that reason, any increase in our chance to make them, no matter how small, helps him.

He may even think that if we only miss by a little bit, he has a chance to argue for his future -- "it was just bad luck, not the moves I made." "We did exactly the right thing, but injuries can't be predicted."

Etc. etc. etc. until the end of the bullsh*t -- to which, obviously, there is no end! Ernie has pulled the wool over Ted's eyes for ten years now; he is hoping he can do it one more time!

What I see here, in other words, is a divergence of interests between Ernie Grunfeld & his owner Ted Leonsis.

That's a first. Until now, Ernie's moves have never been questioned by Ted as far as any of us know; in fact some of the dumbest ones were specifically praised by our owner (e.g. he loved the trade for Kieff).

If I'm right, this 'divergence' means that Ernie thinks he's gone if he misses the playoffs!

The thought has me hyperventilating! :)
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1202 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:14 am

NatP4 wrote:Still think Beal and Porter are the types of players/character that you look to build a team around. Both still young. I’m keeping those guys and not getting carried away at a small sample size.
Totally agree.

Keep Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Dekker, McCrea, and Brown Jr. Green is a good re sign.I'd trade Ariza to his choice between LAL and HOU.

Porter and Beal are solid enough.

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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1203 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:22 am

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Still think Beal and Porter are the types of players/character that you look to build a team around. Both still young. I’m keeping those guys and not getting carried away at a small sample size.

the problem is, there is no way to build a good team around those two guys since were only working with 65% of the cap. Basically all we can do is maybe remain a half-decent 40-win team, but that's probably going to result in Beal leaving in 2 years.
Totally disagree.

Draft smartly.

Pick a dynamic big from the following: Hachimura, Lawson, Fernando, PJ Washington, Clarke, Gafford, Bol.

Select an alpha male guard among: Ja Morant, Shamorie Ponds, Carsen Edwards, Kyle Bowman, Trey Jones.

Improve rebounding and defense; because the Wizards already have shooting and scoring.

The Wizards have talent, nate33. They lack one dynamic big man and one PG with handles.

Morant is really dynamic and maybe better than John Wall.

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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1204 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:27 am

payitforward wrote:
80sballboy wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21

This is interesting. If we make the playoffs, there's a little financial payoff for Ted -- not much to tell the truth. But something. &, I suppose, a little non-financial payoff as well -- pride.

But, we are 22-31. The odds are small that we make the playoffs. & if we don't make the playoffs, what difference does it make to Ted whether we are "worse this year?" How does it affect him if we're worse? Not at all.

If anything, in fact, given that we miss the playoffs the worse we are the better our chances of making the playoffs in the future, even if only because we have a higher draft pick in June -- as well as a better chance that we are bumped to Zion. IOW, in a sense, if we do miss the playoffs then the worse we are the better it is for Ted!

For Ernie, OTOH, it's definitely worse for us not to make the playoffs. It might cost him his job. For that reason, any increase in our chance to make them, no matter how small, helps him.

He may even think that if we only miss by a little bit, he has a chance to argue for his future -- "it was just bad luck, not the moves I made." "We did exactly the right thing, but injuries can't be predicted."

Etc. etc. etc. until the end of the bullsh*t -- to which, obviously, there is no end! Ernie has pulled the wool over Ted's eyes for ten years now; he is hoping he can do it one more time!

What I see here, in other words, is a divergence of interests between Ernie Grunfeld & his owner Ted Leonsis.

That's a first. Until now, Ernie's moves have never been questioned by Ted as far as any of us know; in fact some of the dumbest ones were specifically praised by our owner (e.g. he loved the trade for Kieff).

If I'm right, this 'divergence' means that Ernie thinks he's gone if he misses the playoffs!

The thought has me hyperventilating! :)
The odds are small. After 53 games played they're nine losses or 4.5 games below .500.

I think 39 wins probably gets into the playoffs. So, 17-12 is the Wizards' playoff win pace. Not likely.

However, as few as 37 wins might make it in. 15-14 is possible.

I'd say the Wizards have about a 33% chance as of today; without looking at the home/road breakdown and the opponents.



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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1205 » by dangermouse » Wed Feb 6, 2019 3:07 am

With Wall out until post-all star game 2020, whats the point in trying to compete and make playoffs? Wall is unmovable and is going to cost a fortune, which will make putting pieces around the Beal/Porter/Bryant core impossible. If there's any time to sell a mini-blowup to the fans, its now. Put everyone on the table except maybe Bryant and Brown Jnr. Rack up as many 1st & 2nd rounders, young future pospects and **** contracts that expire in another season as possible with Beal, Porter, Sato, Ariza, Green etc.

Rebuild the team while Wall recuperates.
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long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:
NatP4 wrote:but why would the pacers want Mahinmi's contract


Well, in fairness, we took Mike Pence off their hands. Taking back Mahinmi is the least they can do.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1206 » by Sactowndog » Wed Feb 6, 2019 4:45 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Still think Beal and Porter are the types of players/character that you look to build a team around. Both still young. I’m keeping those guys and not getting carried away at a small sample size.
Totally agree.

Keep Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Dekker, McCrea, and Brown Jr. Green is a good re sign.I'd trade Ariza to his choice between LAL and HOU.

Porter and Beal are solid enough.

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How do you resign them? With Wall, Mahinmi, Porter, Beal and a higher first round pick you are already at the salary cap. Your players in free agency are ripe to be picked off by teams with money to spend.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1207 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Feb 6, 2019 6:41 am

Sactowndog wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Still think Beal and Porter are the types of players/character that you look to build a team around. Both still young. I’m keeping those guys and not getting carried away at a small sample size.
Totally agree.

Keep Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Dekker, McCrea, and Brown Jr. Green is a good re sign.I'd trade Ariza to his choice between LAL and HOU.

Porter and Beal are solid enough.

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How do you resign them? With Wall, Mahinmi, Porter, Beal and a higher first round pick you are already at the salary cap. Your players in free agency are ripe to be picked off by teams with money to spend.
Just ask Ernie how...

:(

In that case, use rookies, round two picks, and FAs to be like Romelo Trimble.

At least Mahinmi comes off the books soon.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1208 » by Ruzious » Wed Feb 6, 2019 10:22 am

nate33 wrote:How many draft picks could we get Boston to include in a Beal + Mahinmi for Hayward trade?

The idea here is to take advantage of Ainge's desperation to retain Kyrie (and ultimately to get Davis). Also, Mahinmi's contract would be the right sized ballast to use in a Tatum for AD trade this summer.

Thing is - by including Mahinmi, factor in we'll get one less 1st rounder, and it'll be harder to complete a trade.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1209 » by queridiculo » Wed Feb 6, 2019 10:31 am

Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:How many draft picks could we get Boston to include in a Beal + Mahinmi for Hayward trade?

The idea here is to take advantage of Ainge's desperation to retain Kyrie (and ultimately to get Davis). Also, Mahinmi's contract would be the right sized ballast to use in a Tatum for AD trade this summer.

Thing is - by including Mahinmi, factor in we'll get one less 1st rounder, and it'll be harder to complete a trade.


Yeah, not sure why we'd bother to dilute Beal's value by including him at that point.

That deal basically signals a tankathon, eating the final year of Ian's deal shouldn't be a concern.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1210 » by Shoe » Wed Feb 6, 2019 11:38 am

payitforward wrote:
Shoe wrote:...If the Knicks get two max guys and want a 3rd star (and can't get AD), I'd take their Top 3 1st pick and future picks for Beal. I don't want any players in the league already.

Right -- we need to start over (with a different GM -- otherwise what's the difference).

Are they going to give us that top 3 pick & other picks for Beal?

Plus, lets try a trade that would work in the trade machine:

Beal to the Knicks

Kanter (expiring), Mitchell Robinson, Damyean Dotson & New York's '19 R1 pick to the Wiz.

I'm sure they don't want to trade Robinson, but he's key to this deal.

Takes almost $4m off our salary, while also adding 2 players to take us back up to 14. Great for our salary problems next year as well.

Follow that up with Ariza to the Lakers -- they are reported interested in acquiring him -- for Rondo (expiring) & Hart (would they do that?). If they won't trade Hart, make it a R2 pick (best one they own), & use a trade exception to make the deal legal.

Gets us under the luxury tax & much better set up going forward.

Thoughts?


I was thinking the Beal trade would have to be made in the off-season since they want to retain their cap space. So the Knicks would take Morant or Barrett, sign two max players, then trade whomever they selected for Beal. The Wizards would pair a top 3 pick with a top 8 pick.

On another Beal trade scenario, the Clippers Tobias trade has opened them two max slots and given them draft capital. I could see them getting Kawhi + another max player, then wanting to add a third star. Plan A would be AD, but Beal would be the next best guy available. Their 1st this year isn't great so I'd want 2019, 2020, Heat 2021 at least.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1211 » by Ruzious » Wed Feb 6, 2019 1:43 pm

Shoe wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Shoe wrote:...If the Knicks get two max guys and want a 3rd star (and can't get AD), I'd take their Top 3 1st pick and future picks for Beal. I don't want any players in the league already.

Right -- we need to start over (with a different GM -- otherwise what's the difference).

Are they going to give us that top 3 pick & other picks for Beal?

Plus, lets try a trade that would work in the trade machine:

Beal to the Knicks

Kanter (expiring), Mitchell Robinson, Damyean Dotson & New York's '19 R1 pick to the Wiz.

I'm sure they don't want to trade Robinson, but he's key to this deal.

Takes almost $4m off our salary, while also adding 2 players to take us back up to 14. Great for our salary problems next year as well.

Follow that up with Ariza to the Lakers -- they are reported interested in acquiring him -- for Rondo (expiring) & Hart (would they do that?). If they won't trade Hart, make it a R2 pick (best one they own), & use a trade exception to make the deal legal.

Gets us under the luxury tax & much better set up going forward.

Thoughts?


I was thinking the Beal trade would have to be made in the off-season since they want to retain their cap space. So the Knicks would take Morant or Barrett, sign two max players, then trade whomever they selected for Beal. The Wizards would pair a top 3 pick with a top 8 pick.

On another Beal trade scenario, the Clippers Tobias trade has opened them two max slots and given them draft capital. I could see them getting Kawhi + another max player, then wanting to add a third star. Plan A would be AD, but Beal would be the next best guy available. Their 1st this year isn't great so I'd want 2019, 2020, Heat 2021 at least.

We'd need to get back more from the Clippers than they got for Tobias, but they don't have a 2019 1st rounder. I think I'd have to hold out for Harrell, and they probably wouldn't give him up. I just don't see a trade working out with LAC. The picks they have just aren't good enough.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1212 » by Ruzious » Wed Feb 6, 2019 1:48 pm

Supposedly, the Lakers were interested in trading for Ariza, but they traded for Reggie Bullock yesterday, so gotta figure they're no longer interested in Ariza.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1213 » by Dark Faze » Wed Feb 6, 2019 1:54 pm

we probably don't trade Beal without a GM change

once that happens, everything is on the table, but Ernie won't do it
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1214 » by trast66 » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:09 pm

Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1215 » by Eli Babak » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:13 pm

Ruzious wrote:Supposedly, the Lakers were interested in trading for Ariza, but they traded for Reggie Bullock yesterday, so gotta figure they're no longer interested in Ariza.


Bullock can play SG so they could still use Ariza. Unfortunately if they trade for Davis it's very likely they use KCP as a filler and that's it for us. Let's hope Sacramento calls and offers something like Randolph + 2nd. Whatever. Screw this team.

trast66 wrote:Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?


We should get more.

- Muscala/Chandler were just fillers as expiring contracts, no value.
- Shamet was 26th pick last year and is a ok young player.
- 2020 1st is very likely in 25-30 range.
- 2021 MIA 1st is a very nice asset to have.
+ 2021 and 2023 2nd round picks.

Like I said yesterday "Beal is legit all-star, good fit for every team, healthy and under contract for 2 more years". Harris also expires after this season and is looking for a big payday.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1216 » by Ruzious » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:36 pm

Eli Babak wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Supposedly, the Lakers were interested in trading for Ariza, but they traded for Reggie Bullock yesterday, so gotta figure they're no longer interested in Ariza.


Bullock can play SG so they could still use Ariza. Unfortunately if they trade for Davis it's very likely they use KCP as a filler and that's it for us. Let's hope Sacramento calls and offers something like Randolph + 2nd. Whatever. Screw this team.

trast66 wrote:Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?


We should get more.

- Muscala/Chandler were just fillers as expiring contracts, no value.
- Shamet was 26th pick last year and is a ok young player.
- 2020 1st is very likely in 25-30 range.
- 2021 MIA 1st is a very nice asset to have.
+ 2021 and 2023 2nd round picks.

Like I said yesterday "Beal is legit all-star, good fit for every team, healthy and under contract for 2 more years". Harris also expires after this season and is looking for a big payday.

Agreed. As I mentioned maybe 2 weeks ago, Boston - with potentially 4 1sts in 2019 as well as tradable talent - and a need for someone like Beal - seems to be a great trade partner. And it helps that Boston was basically dissed by Anthony Davis in favor of Milwaukee. I think Ainge had his sights set on Davis.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1217 » by Dark Faze » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:44 pm

Would now be a decent time to take a flyer on Markelle Fultz?

Obviously it adds salary. But swapping out say Jeff Green and Markieff Morris for Fultz could be a hail mary prayer at hoping this core can be salvaged to some extent.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1218 » by pcbothwel » Wed Feb 6, 2019 2:56 pm

Dark Faze wrote:Would now be a decent time to take a flyer on Markelle Fultz?

Obviously it adds salary. But swapping out say Jeff Green and Markieff Morris for Fultz could be a hail mary prayer at hoping this core can be salvaged to some extent.


Ariza + Dekker (Or Green) for Fultz & Patton ... Boom
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1219 » by Shanghai Kid » Wed Feb 6, 2019 3:50 pm

I honestly don't see Beal or Otto resigning here. Even if your huge Beal and Otto fan, you have to ask why would they want to resign?

We have to get maximum value back for them.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII 

Post#1220 » by FAH1223 » Wed Feb 6, 2019 3:53 pm

Shanghai Kid wrote:I honestly don't see Beal or Otto resigning here. Even if your huge Beal and Otto fan, you have to ask why would they want to resign?

We have to get maximum value back for them.


Which is why you need a competent GM.
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