Trade Vucevic poll

[tiderulz]

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

Nowhere close to that

wing players more valuable than big men, AD being an exception

[Nemesis21]

Spoiler:

Those are statistics. His metrics have been declining.

Vucevic's eFG% at the end of each month:
Oct: .608
Nov: .590
Dec: .565
Jan: .555

His eFG% up to Dec. 1: .590
His eFG% since Dec. 1: .530

Vucevic's TS% at the end of each month:
Oct: .639
Nov: .620
Dec: .590
Jan: .572

His TS% up to Dec. 1: .620
His TS% since Dec. 1: .537
Vucevic's career TS%: .533
League average TS%: .558
Orlando Magic TS%: .540
Fournier's TS% since Dec. 1: .547

He hasn't been particularly efficient since the first couple months of the season, but his season statistics are still buoyed by those first couple months. There is no doubt that his efficiency metrics are regressing towards the mean. The important question regards what that mean is. If the new mean is the same as the old mean, an extension would quickly become a huge problem.

You’re being a little disingenuous with the numbers.

1. You said Vucevic’s metrics have steadily declined. This isn’t accurate.

Of course they have been declining. This is irrefutable. I think you are just trying to argue, but I will explain just the same.

The value in statistics lies in their ability to predict what will happen. We never actually know the true mean unless our sample contains all possible data points, but we make do with what we have. To that end, the larger sample is almost invariably a better predictor. When a sample isn't representative of the true mean, you expect regression (up or down).

Vucevic's mean scoring efficiency metrics (eFG% and TS%) have both been in decline since early in the season. In fact, both declined over the duration of his "very good January." This is almost certainly due to regression back towards the true mean and it is highly probable that both will continue to decline over the remainder of the season.

The fact that Vucevic's efficiency metrics were better in January than they were in December doesn't invalidate this. It's highly unlikely that any subset is going to accurately reflect the true mean. Variance (above or below) is expected. You could've cited any particular performance over the course of the season to attempt to refute my statement, but I'd imagine that data from a single game was too obviously cherry picking?

2. You said Vucevic’s metrics have declined because he’s taking more midrange jumpers. This isn’t accurate

I didn't say that. I said I suspect it. I have a solid grasp of the English language and I generally choose my words carefully. Without the data on hand, I could only hypothesize as to why his shot selection had deteriorated. And... yes. His shot selection has deteriorated. I know this because this is precisely what those metrics measure. They don't measure how good someone is at shooting, though that is obviously a factor, but rather they measure the quality of the field goal attempts a player is taking respective to their ability to hit those shots. Distance is only one factor.

3. You said Vucevic hasn’t been particularly efficient since the first two months. This isn’t accurate.

It's an adverb. Look it up. This specific adverb has caused a fair bit of misunderstanding over the last few weeks and I am unsure as to why.

I don't know how you can argue that Vucevic has been particularly efficient over the last two months when his TS% over that span has been below the league average. He was particularly efficient from the beginning of the season through November.

Spoiler:

Vucevic EFG% by month
Oct: .608
Nov: .585
Dec: .518
Jan: .538

Vucevic TS% by month
Oct: .639
Nov: .613
Dec: .535
Jan: .554

Vucevic Career Marks
EFG%: .513
TS%: .533

So as you can see, Vucevic had 1.5 great months in Oct and Nov, then had a “bad” month in December and then bounced back with a very good January.

October is only a 7 game month, so we can’t consider that a full month since most teams play 15-16 games in a normal month. I also put “bad” in quotes for December because it was actually right in line with his career numbers.

It’s unfair to say Vucevic’s numbers have steadily declined considering January was better than December and what he did in January was more efficient than his career numbers. Beyond that, I think it’s worth noting that he did suffer that sprained ankle in December, missed a game and then had three pretty poor games in a row coming off the injury.

Let’s look at Vuc’s shooting zones by month.

October
13.3 FGA per game
38.3% of shots at the rim: 5.1 per game at .750%
22.6% of shots in the paint: 3.0 per game at .429%
27.0% of shots from midrange: 3.6 per game at .400%
12.0% of shots from 3PT: 1.6 per game at .636%
2.9 FT per game at .850%

November
16.5 FGA per game
29.1% of shots at the rim: 4.8 per game at .750%
30.0% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .468%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.4 per game at .564%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.4 per game at .364%
3.1 FT per game at .840%

December
16.4 FGA per game
29.9% of shots at the rim: 4.9 per game at .610%
29.9% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .492%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.3 per game at .450%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.3 per game at .325%
2.7 FT per game at .688%

January
18.4 FGA per game
31.5% of shots at the rim: 5.8 per game at .685%
31.0% of shots in the paint: 5.7 per game at .462%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.8 per game at .400%
16.8% of shots from 3PT: 3.1 per game at .380%
2.5 FT per game at .725%

Career
At Rim: .656%
In Paint: .471%
Midrange: .433%

3PT: .332%

FT: .735%

So as you can see Vuc’s number of midrange attempts were actually the lowest they’ve been all season in December which was his least efficient month of the season.

So what caused the big drop in efficiency in December?

Right off the bat it’s very noticeable that Vucevic only shot 61% at the rim in December. This is lower than his career mark of .656% and significantly lower than the low 70%s marks he’s put up the last two years. This was pretty obviously an unsustainable negative blip that could be attributed to small sample size noise and possibly also to the ankle injury. Vucevic immediately jumped back up to a much better 69% at the rim in January.

Another area where Vucevic noticeably dipped that has nothing to do with his shot selection is his FT%.

After shooting 85% in October and 84% in November, he slumped down to just 69% in December and 72% in January. That 16% drop in FT% from Oct/Nov to Dec led to a nearly 3% drop in his TS%. Again, this has literally nothing to do with shot selection. He simply bricked more free throws than he did earlier in the year and more than he normally has the previous three seasons.

He actually shot even more shots at the rim and in the paint in January than he did in those first 1.5 hot months, the issue primarily is that he’s missing a lot more FTs and he isn’t finishing quite as well as he’s shown to be capable of the last two years.

His overall percentage of midrange shots has been completely static for 3 months. The perception is that he’s taking more because he took fewer threes in January, but the amount of midrange was the exact same as his hot months.

I am all for debating any number of Magic-related topics, but I find it tiresome having to continually clarify statements that are not ambiguous. I think there is an assumption of prejudice around here any time anything unflattering is said about individual players.

[BadMofoPimp]

Spoiler:

You’re being a little disingenuous with the numbers.

1. You said Vucevic’s metrics have steadily declined. This isn’t accurate.

Of course they have been declining. This is irrefutable. I think you are just trying to argue, but I will explain just the same.

The value in statistics lies in their ability to predict what will happen. We never actually know the true mean unless our sample contains all possible data points, but we make do with what we have. To that end, the larger sample is almost invariably a better predictor. When a sample isn't representative of the true mean, you expect regression (up or down).

Vucevic's mean scoring efficiency metrics (eFG% and TS%) have both been in decline since early in the season. In fact, both declined over the duration of his "very good January." This is almost certainly due to regression back towards the true mean and it is highly probable that both will continue to decline over the remainder of the season.

The fact that Vucevic's efficiency metrics were better in January than they were in December doesn't invalidate this. It's highly unlikely that any subset is going to accurately reflect the true mean. Variance (above or below) is expected. You could've cited any particular performance over the course of the season to attempt to refute my statement, but I'd imagine that data from a single game was too obviously cherry picking?

2. You said Vucevic’s metrics have declined because he’s taking more midrange jumpers. This isn’t accurate

I didn't say that. I said I suspect it. I have a solid grasp of the English language and I generally choose my words carefully. Without the data on hand, I could only hypothesize as to why his shot selection had deteriorated. And... yes. His shot selection has deteriorated. I know this because this is precisely what those metrics measure. They don't measure how good someone is at shooting, though that is obviously a factor, but rather they measure the quality of the field goal attempts a player is taking respective to their ability to hit those shots. Distance is only one factor.

3. You said Vucevic hasn’t been particularly efficient since the first two months. This isn’t accurate.

It's an adverb. Look it up. This specific adverb has caused a fair bit of misunderstanding over the last few weeks and I am unsure as to why.

I don't know how you can argue that Vucevic has been particularly efficient over the last two months when his TS% over that span has been below the league average. He was particularly efficient from the beginning of the season through November.

Spoiler:

Vucevic EFG% by month
Oct: .608
Nov: .585
Dec: .518
Jan: .538

Vucevic TS% by month
Oct: .639
Nov: .613
Dec: .535
Jan: .554

Vucevic Career Marks
EFG%: .513
TS%: .533

So as you can see, Vucevic had 1.5 great months in Oct and Nov, then had a “bad” month in December and then bounced back with a very good January.

October is only a 7 game month, so we can’t consider that a full month since most teams play 15-16 games in a normal month. I also put “bad” in quotes for December because it was actually right in line with his career numbers.

It’s unfair to say Vucevic’s numbers have steadily declined considering January was better than December and what he did in January was more efficient than his career numbers. Beyond that, I think it’s worth noting that he did suffer that sprained ankle in December, missed a game and then had three pretty poor games in a row coming off the injury.

Let’s look at Vuc’s shooting zones by month.

October
13.3 FGA per game
38.3% of shots at the rim: 5.1 per game at .750%
22.6% of shots in the paint: 3.0 per game at .429%
27.0% of shots from midrange: 3.6 per game at .400%
12.0% of shots from 3PT: 1.6 per game at .636%
2.9 FT per game at .850%

November
16.5 FGA per game
29.1% of shots at the rim: 4.8 per game at .750%
30.0% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .468%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.4 per game at .564%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.4 per game at .364%
3.1 FT per game at .840%

December
16.4 FGA per game
29.9% of shots at the rim: 4.9 per game at .610%
29.9% of shots in the paint: 4.9 per game at .492%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.3 per game at .450%
20.1% of shots from 3PT: 3.3 per game at .325%
2.7 FT per game at .688%

January
18.4 FGA per game
31.5% of shots at the rim: 5.8 per game at .685%
31.0% of shots in the paint: 5.7 per game at .462%
20.1% of shots from midrange: 3.8 per game at .400%
16.8% of shots from 3PT: 3.1 per game at .380%
2.5 FT per game at .725%

Career
At Rim: .656%
In Paint: .471%
Midrange: .433%

3PT: .332%

FT: .735%

So as you can see Vuc’s number of midrange attempts were actually the lowest they’ve been all season in December which was his least efficient month of the season.

So what caused the big drop in efficiency in December?

Right off the bat it’s very noticeable that Vucevic only shot 61% at the rim in December. This is lower than his career mark of .656% and significantly lower than the low 70%s marks he’s put up the last two years. This was pretty obviously an unsustainable negative blip that could be attributed to small sample size noise and possibly also to the ankle injury. Vucevic immediately jumped back up to a much better 69% at the rim in January.

Another area where Vucevic noticeably dipped that has nothing to do with his shot selection is his FT%.

After shooting 85% in October and 84% in November, he slumped down to just 69% in December and 72% in January. That 16% drop in FT% from Oct/Nov to Dec led to a nearly 3% drop in his TS%. Again, this has literally nothing to do with shot selection. He simply bricked more free throws than he did earlier in the year and more than he normally has the previous three seasons.

He actually shot even more shots at the rim and in the paint in January than he did in those first 1.5 hot months, the issue primarily is that he’s missing a lot more FTs and he isn’t finishing quite as well as he’s shown to be capable of the last two years.

His overall percentage of midrange shots has been completely static for 3 months. The perception is that he’s taking more because he took fewer threes in January, but the amount of midrange was the exact same as his hot months.

I am all for debating any number of Magic-related topics, but I find it tiresome having to continually clarify statements that are not ambiguous. I think there is an assumption of prejudice around here any time anything unflattering is said about individual players.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I suspect he started the season intent on impressing his new coach and motivated for his next contract, but as the season has progressed he has settled for more and more mid-range jumpers.

October
Midrange FGA/game: 3.57
Paint FGA/game: 8.14

November
Midrange FGA/game: 3.44
Paint FGA/game: 9.69

December
Midrange FGA/game: 3.33
Paint FGA/game: 9.83

January
Midrange FGA/game: 3.75
Paint FGA/game: 11.44

February
Midrange FGA/game: 5
Paint FGA/game: 17

He's "settling" for more shots in the paint. Oops.

This always happens. Someone makes up some false narrative, when it’s proven to be false they just move the goal posts. Eventually they’ll be right about something.

[Skin]

Clippers just traded their all-star (should have been) like it ain't no thang.

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

Isn't it amazing what a good decisive GM like Jerry West can do? We suck.

[tiderulz]

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

Isn't it amazing what a good decisive GM like Jerry West can do? We suck.

well, he also as a lot more connections than ours do. But that haul for Harris is amazing. and we let him go for peanuts


edit:what the heck happened to the formatting on this thread

[Skin]

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

Isn't it amazing what a good decisive GM like Jerry West can do? We suck.

well, he also as a lot more connections than ours do. But that haul for Harris is amazing. and we let him go for peanuts


edit:what the heck happened to the formatting on this thread

We broke the internet!

Sigh... Our FO is infuriatingly incapable. This has less to do with connections and more to do with negotiation skills.

[pepe1991]

Why is this thread on steroids?

[j-ragg]

rebuild. expiring player got them two 1sts and Shamet who was a 1st rounder last year, and two 2nds. If they werent keeping Harris that is a great haul

So what the F can we get for Vucevic?

Nowhere close to that

At any point when he's been here has his value exceeded a late first round pick?

[swarlesbarkley]

I like the new format. Also, we must trade Vuc. The combination of Dallas wanting him and Luka and Vuc sharing an agent is WAY too concerning to hope he signs a friendly deal here.

[BadMofoPimp]

The "I hate Vooch" fanbase is coming out in Droves today! Lol. Can't wait to see the meltdown post trade deadline.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

The magic are 25th in pace but they're 27th in "seconds it takes to score". 28th in time to score after a made basket but 15th in time to score after a defensive rebound.

Let's keep rebuilding around Vuc tho...

[Skin]

The "I hate Vooch" fanbase is coming out in Droves today! Lol. Can't wait to see the meltdown post trade deadline.

If we sign Vucevic at $25M, then that leaves us with our highest paid players list looking like...

Vucevic $25M
Gordon $20M
Fournier $17M
Mozgov $16M
~ 78M

The salary cap for the 2019-20 season was set at $109M. If it stays around the same amount and we give Vuc $25M, then we'll be right near the cap. $105M without signing our rookie or any other FAs.

Please lay out a plausible course of action for making us a contender once again.

[BadMofoPimp]

The "I hate Vooch" fanbase is coming out in Droves today! Lol. Can't wait to see the meltdown post trade deadline.

If we sign Vucevic at $25M, then that leaves us with our highest paid players list looking like...

Vucevic $25M
Gordon $20M
Fournier $17M
Mozgov $16M
~ 78M

The salary cap for the 2019-20 season was set at $109M. If it stays around the same amount and we give Vuc $25M, then we'll be right near the cap. $105M without signing our rookie or any other FAs.

Please lay out a plausible course of action for making us a contender once again.

Even if the Magic signed Vooch for that much in which they won't, they could still trade Fournier and Mozgov or stretch Mozgov. You are making assumptions.

[Nemesis21]

The "I hate Vooch" fanbase is coming out in Droves today! Lol. Can't wait to see the meltdown post trade deadline.

If we sign Vucevic at $25M, then that leaves us with our highest paid players list looking like...

Vucevic $25M
Gordon $20M
Fournier $17M
Mozgov $16M
~ 78M

The salary cap for the 2019-20 season was set at $109M. If it stays around the same amount and we give Vuc $25M, then we'll be right near the cap. $105M without signing our rookie or any other FAs.

Please lay out a plausible course of action for making us a contender once again.

Even if the Magic signed Vooch for that much in which they won't, they could still trade Fournier and Mozgov or stretch Mozgov. You are making assumptions.

And??? You're also making assumptions that they'll trade Fournier or stretch Mozgov.


It's not okay for Skin to make assumptions, but it's okay for you to?

[BadMofoPimp]

If we sign Vucevic at $25M, then that leaves us with our highest paid players list looking like...

Vucevic $25M
Gordon $20M
Fournier $17M
Mozgov $16M
~ 78M

The salary cap for the 2019-20 season was set at $109M. If it stays around the same amount and we give Vuc $25M, then we'll be right near the cap. $105M without signing our rookie or any other FAs.

Please lay out a plausible course of action for making us a contender once again.

Even if the Magic signed Vooch for that much in which they won't, they could still trade Fournier and Mozgov or stretch Mozgov. You are making assumptions.

And??? You're also making assumptions that they'll trade Fournier or stretch Mozgov.


It's not okay for Skin to make assumptions, but it's okay for you to?

I said Could, he made definitive statements.

[Nemesis21]

Even if the Magic signed Vooch for that much in which they won't, they could still trade Fournier and Mozgov or stretch Mozgov. You are making assumptions.

And??? You're also making assumptions that they'll trade Fournier or stretch Mozgov.


It's not okay for Skin to make assumptions, but it's okay for you to?

I said Could, he made definitive statements.

Still an assumption. Could, would, should, who gives a crap. It's okay for badmofo to do it, but nobody else. Go it.

[BadMofoPimp]

And??? You're also making assumptions that they'll trade Fournier or stretch Mozgov.


It's not okay for Skin to make assumptions, but it's okay for you to?

I said Could, he made definitive statements.

Still an assumption. Could, would, should, who gives a crap. It's okay for badmofo to do it, but nobody else. Go it.

See, at least I give the courtesy of saying "Could" to describe that there are multiple scenarios. Sometimes, people just blatantly state opinions as fact. That is the difference between an intelligent debate where different things "Could" happen and people throwing out opinions as fact without thinking.

[j-ragg]

I said Could, he made definitive statements.

Still an assumption. Could, would, should, who gives a crap. It's okay for badmofo to do it, but nobody else. Go it.

See, at least I give the courtesy of saying "Could" to describe that there are multiple scenarios. Sometimes, people just blatantly state opinions as fact. That is the difference between an intelligent debate where different things "Could" happen and people throwing out opinions as fact without thinking.

BMP argues the weirdest things. Skin wrote IF twice in his post... just thinking hypothetically like everyone else since we don't know what's gonna happen.

From now on instead of saying "_____ gonna prove y'all wrong!" BMP you have to say "______ could prove y'all wrong!" Wouldn't want an unintelligent comment lol.

[BadMofoPimp]

Still an assumption. Could, would, should, who gives a crap. It's okay for badmofo to do it, but nobody else. Go it.

See, at least I give the courtesy of saying "Could" to describe that there are multiple scenarios. Sometimes, people just blatantly state opinions as fact. That is the difference between an intelligent debate where different things "Could" happen and people throwing out opinions as fact without thinking.

BMP argues the weirdest things. Skin wrote IF twice in his post... just thinking hypothetically like everyone else since we don't know what's gonna happen.

From now on instead of saying "_____ gonna prove y'all wrong!" BMP you have to say "______ could prove y'all wrong!" Wouldn't want an unintelligent comment lol.

Now, that is the best response to the day!

His IF statements in Bold do not dictate anything about what I discussed tho. Only, IF Magic sign Vucevic, they are screwed Cap wise and IF the Salary Cap is at $105 million. What I dicsussed in the "Could" statement, is that Fournier and Mozgov could be moved. Heck, even after signing Vooch, he could be moved as well as AG. Fact is, we don't know the future and can't automatically assume that those 4 will even be on the team next year.

If we sign Vucevic at $25M, then that leaves us with our highest paid players list looking like...

Vucevic $25M
Gordon $20M
Fournier $17M
Mozgov $16M
~ 78M

The salary cap for the 2019-20 season was set at $109M. If it stays around the same amount and we give Vuc $25M, then we'll be right near the cap. $105M without signing our rookie or any other FAs.