Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[Ruzious]

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Uggg, I like Ariza, but him re-signing here makes very little sense.

[Ruzious]

Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?

Philly has made an awful trade here. Harris isn't particularly good (yes he shoots the 3 well, scores well). To give up a promising young player, 2 R1 picks (of which one is almost certain to be pretty high), & 2 R2 picks for him...? Never.

I actually agree with you on this one, but didn't you used to be a big Harris fan?

[JAR69]

I don't understand any of the complaining. We traded the #3 overall pick for the #2 plus the #22. Then we traded the #13 overall for the #4. Win and win.

[Shanghai Kid]

Think it might be time for all of us to throw in our cards as Wizards fans. Its starting to feel like an abusive relationship.

[Ruzious]

Think it might be time for all of us to throw in our cards as Wizards fans. Its starting to feel like an abusive relationship.

Can't - we have AWFD - Addicted Wiz Fan Disorder.

[BigA]

Think it might be time for all of us to throw in our cards as Wizards fans. Its starting to feel like an abusive relationship.

Starting?

[Tyrone Messby]

Think I’m done with this team until EG is gone if he’s still the GM at the draft. It’s a sick joke he is running this team just like Bruce Allen running the Skins. What did DC do to deserve this **** management?

Happy we got out from the Porter contract but it’s just another example of EG cleaning up his mistakes. He’s a true buffoon. F Ted too.

[Ruzious]

Think I’m done with this team until EG is gone if he’s still the GM at the draft. It’s a sick joke he is running this team just like Bruce Allen running the Skins. What did DC do to deserve this **** management?

Happy we got out from the Porter contract but it’s just another example of EG cleaning up his mistakes. He’s a true buffoon. F Ted too.

You know there's a problem when almost every trade he's made the last few years is in part to clean up a mess he made.

[dorianwrite]

Since Ariza allegedly wants to be in Washington next season, here's the crushingly obvious thing to do next: trade Ariza to the Lakers (or whatever other likely playoff-bound team he'd like to go to) for an expiring contract and whatever else you can get (2nd round picks, young project who may not pan out, whatever). He'll get to be in a playoff environment for a few months, and if Ariza is so destined to return to Washington, he can do so in free agency this summer.

[dckingsfan]

Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?

Philly has made an awful trade here. Harris isn't particularly good (yes he shoots the 3 well, scores well). To give up a promising young player, 2 R1 picks (of which one is almost certain to be pretty high), & 2 R2 picks for him...? Never.

I think you are right that it is a bad trade - but not because Harris isn't good. He is a terrific defender and defensive rebounder. And he stretches the floor really well - he will fit this team perfectly. He will make Simmons non shooting something that doesn't matter when he is surrounded by Embiid, Harris, Butler and Reddick - who are you going to leave?

So, great pick up but... really too expensive.

[dckingsfan]

Which is the thread where we boycott the ticket?

[payitforward]

Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?

Philly has made an awful trade here. Harris isn't particularly good (yes he shoots the 3 well, scores well). To give up a promising young player, 2 R1 picks (of which one is almost certain to be pretty high), & 2 R2 picks for him...? Never.

I actually agree with you on this one, but didn't you used to be a big Harris fan?

I loved him coming out of college. He'd had great freshman numbers. I thought he was quite a bargain at #19 in the 2011 draft. & that hasn't changed, actually, given the 2011 draft being a textbook example of randomness after the #1 pick.

The 2 best players in that draft went #15 & #30. 3 guys picked in the 50s plu the guy who went #60 have all had way better NBA careers than the #2 pick! Better than 4 of the 9 guys picked from 2-10. Wow....

[doclinkin]

Since Ariza allegedly wants to be in Washington next season, here's the crushingly obvious thing to do next: trade Ariza to the Lakers (or whatever other likely playoff-bound team he'd like to go to) for an expiring contract and whatever else you can get (2nd round picks, young project who may not pan out, whatever). He'll get to be in a playoff environment for a few months, and if Ariza is so destined to return to Washington, he can do so in free agency this summer.

Never happen. If we miss the playoffs (likely) Ernie needs to re-sign Ariza to justify giving Oubre away. We will likely get at least two trademark Ernie 'obviously's at the press conference when we overpay to re sign him: ''Well obviously we like Ariza as a player and as a steadying force in our locker room who could provide leadership for your younder players ..." etc.

[BigA]

Since Ariza allegedly wants to be in Washington next season, here's the crushingly obvious thing to do next: trade Ariza to the Lakers (or whatever other likely playoff-bound team he'd like to go to) for an expiring contract and whatever else you can get (2nd round picks, young project who may not pan out, whatever). He'll get to be in a playoff environment for a few months, and if Ariza is so destined to return to Washington, he can do so in free agency this summer.

Never happen. If we miss the playoffs (likely) Ernie needs to re-sign Ariza to justify giving Oubre away. We will likely get at least two trademark Ernie 'obviously's at the press conference when we overpay to re sign him: ''Well obviously we like Ariza as a player and as a steadying force in our locker room who could provide leadership for your younder players ..." etc.

Right, as someone put it in another thread, Ernie in charge of the rebuild is the worst of all possible worlds because he'll continue to be in a mode where he's cleaning up or justifying previous mistakes.

We're looking at an endless road of suck for as far as the eye can see toward the horizon. Years and years of suck.

[payitforward]

Could we have got that deal Clips got from Philly (or more) for Brad?

Philly has made an awful trade here. Harris isn't particularly good (yes he shoots the 3 well, scores well). To give up a promising young player, 2 R1 picks (of which one is almost certain to be pretty high), & 2 R2 picks for him...? Never.

I think you are right that it is a bad trade - but not because Harris isn't good. He is a terrific defender and defensive rebounder. And he stretches the floor really well - he will fit this team perfectly. He will make Simmons non shooting something that doesn't matter when he is surrounded by Embiid, Harris, Butler and Reddick - who are you going to leave?

So, great pick up but... really too expensive.

I didn't say Harris was "awful," right? I said he "isn't particularly good," & he isn't. Of course if we cherry pick the numbers we like, we can make him look a lot better. But, when an NBA player is on the floor, absolutely everything he does or doesn't do impacts results. His team gets the benefit of the good things he does, but it also, & equally fully, experiences the negative impact of the not-good things. Hence, what you need to know about a player is how good he is overall. The rest is minor.

Overall, Harris "isn't particularly good." He has the classic problem of a tweener forward. If you can play him at the 3, you're ok. If you play him at the 4, he's below average. (4's put up bigger raw numbers in a bunch of areas)

As to him being "a terrific... defensive rebounder," btw, he is having his best year at that, yes. He's gettin 8 defensive boards per 40 minutes. Last year he got 5.8. On his career, he's averaged 5.65 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. If he maintains this better pace, he'll be more helpful. If he regresses to his mean, not so much.

In thinking about this, btw, I've worked out a way to measure overall offensive efficiency -- i.e. scoring & more -- using the formula for Total Scoring %. I think it's interesting, but it's long -- so I'm putting it inside a spoiler in case you're not interested.

Spoiler:

In fairness, if a guy gets an offensive rebound it's like he's wiped out one of his missed field goal attempts. Along the same lines, a steal (while it happens on defense, obviously) gives his team another chance to score. So a player's steals can also be deducted from his FGAs.

So for every offensive rebound & every steal, we simply take away one FGA in our calculation -- upping the player's offensive efficiency.

OTOH, similarly, if a player turns the ball over, it's more or less equivalent to taking and missing a shot which the other team rebounds. So for every turnover, we simply add one FGA in our calculation -- lowering the player's offensive efficiency in this case.

Since we're talking about Tobias Harris -- he is posting a terrific 60.5% TS% this year. Figuring these other elements into the equation his overall offensive efficiency drops a bit but not much: 58.6%

Obviously, that's a lot better than, for example, Sam Dekker -- another "tweener" -- whose TS% is only 53.7%. & that's on lower usage -- he's scoring 9 fewer points than Harris per 40 minutes.

But, what if we calculate that same overall offensive efficiency % for him? Big change -- because of his offensive rebounding, steals, & fewer turnovers (which you would expect from someone who is lower usage) Sam Dekker is posting an overall offensive efficiency of 75.4%.

Of course, I'm sure the response will be that "turnovers are a cost of higher usage, & someone has to be higher usage" -- which may be valid.

If we leave turnovers out of the picture, Harris is at 60.8%. Dekker is at 68.6%.

I'm not trying to ding Harris or over-praise Dekker. Who knows what would happen if Sam played the minutes Tobias Harris plays! Not to mention that on the total of other stuff (assists plus defensive rebounds plus blocks minus fouls) Tobias is better (yet... not if you add back those turnovers we decided to overlook!).

But, Harris is expensive. Dekker is cheap. 1 protected R1 pick would have been more than enough for them to acquire him instead of Harris, right?

Would I rather have Dekker, Miami's unprotected 2021 pick, Landry Shamet, & 2 R2 picks instead of Harris? Oh yes!

[dorianwrite]

Since Ariza allegedly wants to be in Washington next season, here's the crushingly obvious thing to do next: trade Ariza to the Lakers (or whatever other likely playoff-bound team he'd like to go to) for an expiring contract and whatever else you can get (2nd round picks, young project who may not pan out, whatever). He'll get to be in a playoff environment for a few months, and if Ariza is so destined to return to Washington, he can do so in free agency this summer.

Never happen. If we miss the playoffs (likely) Ernie needs to re-sign Ariza to justify giving Oubre away. We will likely get at least two trademark Ernie 'obviously's at the press conference when we overpay to re sign him: ''Well obviously we like Ariza as a player and as a steadying force in our locker room who could provide leadership for your younder players ..." etc.

Oh, I didn't say EG was going to do it, just that it's a stupidly obvious move. We're not making the playoffs this year, so let's trade Ariza (with his knowledge and consent) for something useful, and then re-sign him in the off-season. (Where I'm sure EG will, indeed, overpay him.)

[dckingsfan]

Philly has made an awful trade here. Harris isn't particularly good (yes he shoots the 3 well, scores well). To give up a promising young player, 2 R1 picks (of which one is almost certain to be pretty high), & 2 R2 picks for him...? Never.

I think you are right that it is a bad trade - but not because Harris isn't good. He is a terrific defender and defensive rebounder. And he stretches the floor really well - he will fit this team perfectly. He will make Simmons non shooting something that doesn't matter when he is surrounded by Embiid, Harris, Butler and Reddick - who are you going to leave?

So, great pick up but... really too expensive.

I didn't say Harris was "awful," right? I said he "isn't particularly good," & he isn't. Of course if we cherry pick the numbers we like, we can make him look a lot better. But, when an NBA player is on the floor, absolutely everything he does or doesn't do impacts results. His team gets the benefit of the good things he does, but it also, & equally fully, experiences the negative impact of the not-good things. Hence, what you need to know about a player is how good he is overall. The rest is minor.

Overall, Harris "isn't particularly good." He has the classic problem of a tweener forward. If you can play him at the 3, you're ok. If you play him at the 4, he's below average. (4's put up bigger raw numbers in a bunch of areas)

As to him being "a terrific... defensive rebounder," btw, he is having his best year at that, yes. He's gettin 8 defensive boards per 40 minutes. Last year he got 5.8. On his career, he's averaged 5.65 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. If he maintains this better pace, he'll be more helpful. If he regresses to his mean, not so much.

In thinking about this, btw, I've worked out a way to measure overall offensive efficiency -- i.e. scoring & more -- using the formula for Total Scoring %. I think it's interesting, but it's long -- so I'm putting it inside a spoiler in case you're not interested.

Spoiler:

In fairness, if a guy gets an offensive rebound it's like he's wiped out one of his missed field goal attempts. Along the same lines, a steal (while it happens on defense, obviously) gives his team another chance to score. So a player's steals can also be deducted from his FGAs.

So for every offensive rebound & every steal, we simply take away one FGA in our calculation -- upping the player's offensive efficiency.

OTOH, similarly, if a player turns the ball over, it's more or less equivalent to taking and missing a shot which the other team rebounds. So for every turnover, we simply add one FGA in our calculation -- lowering the player's offensive efficiency in this case.

Since we're talking about Tobias Harris -- he is posting a terrific 60.5% TS% this year. Figuring these other elements into the equation his overall offensive efficiency drops a bit but not much: 58.6%

Obviously, that's a lot better than, for example, Sam Dekker -- another "tweener" -- whose TS% is only 53.7%. & that's on lower usage -- he's scoring 9 fewer points than Harris per 40 minutes.

But, what if we calculate that same overall offensive efficiency % for him? Big change -- because of his offensive rebounding, steals, & fewer turnovers (which you would expect from someone who is lower usage) Sam Dekker is posting an overall offensive efficiency of 75.4%.

Of course, I'm sure the response will be that "turnovers are a cost of higher usage, & someone has to be higher usage" -- which may be valid.

If we leave turnovers out of the picture, Harris is at 60.8%. Dekker is at 68.6%.

I'm not trying to ding Harris or over-praise Dekker. Who knows what would happen if Sam played the minutes Tobias Harris plays! Not to mention that on the total of other stuff (assists plus defensive rebounds plus blocks minus fouls) Tobias is better (yet... not if you add back those turnovers we decided to overlook!).

But, Harris is expensive. Dekker is cheap. 1 protected R1 pick would have been more than enough for them to acquire him instead of Harris, right?

Would I rather have Dekker, Miami's unprotected 2021 pick, Landry Shamet, & 2 R2 picks instead of Harris? Oh yes!

Nice analysis - I like Dekker too... we should resign him if possible.

I just think that given the team aspect of the game Harris is a better (much) fit for Philly - he is a much better 3 point shooter (that helps Simmons). Also, he is a much better defensive rebounder than Dekker (this year). Two things that really help Philly. And yes, he is a tweener, but one that can defend both SF and PF as well (he does pretty well on switch to Cs as well).

Now, if Dekker develops a 3...

And remember, I agreed that they overpaid for Harris, right?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The good news is I don't care much if at all any more.

Ted gonna Ted. Minion EG gonna keep his job.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Since Ariza allegedly wants to be in Washington next season, here's the crushingly obvious thing to do next: trade Ariza to the Lakers (or whatever other likely playoff-bound team he'd like to go to) for an expiring contract and whatever else you can get (2nd round picks, young project who may not pan out, whatever). He'll get to be in a playoff environment for a few months, and if Ariza is so destined to return to Washington, he can do so in free agency this summer.

Duh. It's beyond me why anyone thinks next season can be the reason to keep a guy with an expiring contract instead of getting assets for it.

[Meliorus]

We should trade Ariza for a bad contract (expires in 2020) + 1st (though we can't take on extra salary for this season) but at least for expiring + 2nd. Green as well. I don't even know what kind of team we have right now, let's see...

Sato/Randle/Wall (inj.)
Beal/Brown
Dekker/Johnson(/Ariza)
Parker/Portis(/Green)
Bryant/Mahinmi/Howard (inj.)

Ugh. What a horrific roster. We wanted to tank but not this way.

Why is Parker starting he's not a NBA player.