Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[nate33]

Going into the offseason, we have the following salaries on the books:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Mahinmi - $15.4M
Brown - $3.2M
Howard - $5.6M*
Draft pick - $4.1M
SUBTOTAL: $93.2M (or 87.6M if Howard declines his player option)

I'm certain we won't opt in on Parker's $20M team option because that salary alone is likely to make it impossible to retain most of the rest of the team. The luxtax threshold is $132M. That leaves $38.8M (or maybe $44.4M) to fill out the roster. We have the following players we may or may not wish to retain:

Portis - RFA - Bird Rights
Sato - RFA - Bird Rights
Dekker - RFA - Bird Rights
Bryant - RFA - Early Bird Rights + Gilbert Arenas Provision
Randle - RFA - Non-Bird Rights
Parker - UFA - Non-Bird Rights
Ariza - UFA - Bird Rights
Green - UFA - Non Bird Rights

Those with Bird Rights can be paid whatever we want. Those with Early Bird Rights can be matched up to 175% of their original salary. Those with Non-Bird Rights can be paid 120% of their current salary. Bryant has the Gilbert Arenas provision, which means no contract offer can exceed the MLE over the first 2 years of the deal, and we can use the MLE to match it. Basically, we're going to have to use a portion of the MLE to pay him, which means that we will only have whatever is leftover available to use to retain Jeff Green. We could also use the Bi-Annual Exception on Green which pays up to $3.9M

The TLDR version is that it appears that we have enough cap exceptions to pay everybody what their market price will be, except possibly Jeff Green, depending on the contract of Bryant. So the real question is, how much will these guys cost in total, and will that cost exceed the luxury tax?

My first stab at it looks something like this:

Sato - $9M (Just above the MLE which is probably what other teams will offer)
Bryant - $5M (Not many teams are in need of a center, and Bryant's defensive issues are starting to get exploited)
Green - $3.9M (Bi-Annual Exception. Green might get more elsewhere but he likes it here.)
Randle - $1M (Vet minimum)
McRae - $1M (Vet minimum)
Dekker - $1M (Vet minimum)

That leaves $16M for 2 more players, or $22M for 3 more players if Howard opts out. That money will go to one or more of Ariza, Parker or Portis. I don't know who we're going to get and what they're going to cost. That will depend on the next 28 games plus the draft. It doesn't look like we'll be able to retain all three, and I suspect they're highly inclined to retain Ariza.

It will help greatly if Howard opts out, and I think he might. We can also free up $10M more in cap room by stretching Mahinmi, but I think that's unlikely. The last thing we need is a $5M a year cap charge for the next 3 years when we're already paying Wall not to play.

[Ruzious]

Thanks for making that post - maybe sticky it.

I think you're probably close on the costs - though they usually end up being higher than I expect. Hopefully you're right about Bryant. Portis - despite his faults - puts up the numbers that usually get players paid - high volume scoring and rebounding. He might take up that full 16 mil.

[dckingsfan]

Thanks for making that post - maybe sticky it.

I think you're probably close on the costs - though they usually end up being higher than I expect. Hopefully you're right about Bryant. Portis - despite his faults - puts up the numbers that usually get players paid - high volume scoring and rebounding. He might take up that full 16 mil.

Cosign on sticky...

And agreed the costs will go up as EG bids against himself.

[queridiculo]

I wonder how much John Wall's insurance payment is going to factor next season. The Wizards will only be on the hook for around $9 million of John's salary next year so in theory the Wizards could push well into the luxury tax threshold without really feeling the pain.

That DPE might come in handy signing a vet for a one year deal.

[FAH1223]

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[nate33]

Stickied as requested. I'll leave it up for a few days.

[mhd]

Depending on how the draft goes (assuming we don't get a top 3 pick), I could see the following trade (right now we are at 8 and Dallas is at 11 (which ATL has).

8th+Mahinmi for 11th (from Atlanta via Dallas)+2019 Minny/LAL 2nd rounder (ATL gets lesser valued)+Plumlee

We'd save 3 million in costs (Plumlee makes 3 million less) and both expire next year. We'd also get a 2nd rounder back (ATL has 3 of them next year).

Perhaps that gives us some extra breathing room.

[FAH1223]

Stickied as requested. I'll leave it up for a few days.

THis may as well be the 2019 Offseason Thread

[Illmatic12]

Thanks for making that post - maybe sticky it.

I think you're probably close on the costs - though they usually end up being higher than I expect. Hopefully you're right about Bryant. Portis - despite his faults - puts up the numbers that usually get players paid - high volume scoring and rebounding. He might take up that full 16 mil.

Cosign on sticky...

And agreed the costs will go up as EG bids against himself.

I would be very surprised if EG is the one making these decisions. Not to say Tommy Sheppard or whoever the replacement is will do any better.

[nate33]

Thanks for making that post - maybe sticky it.

I think you're probably close on the costs - though they usually end up being higher than I expect. Hopefully you're right about Bryant. Portis - despite his faults - puts up the numbers that usually get players paid - high volume scoring and rebounding. He might take up that full 16 mil.

Cosign on sticky...

And agreed the costs will go up as EG bids against himself.

Fortunately, a lot of the free agents are restricted, so EG doesn't have to bid against himself. Sato and Bryant can simply be matched, as can Portis and Dekker. Parker and Ariza are the ones to be concerned about. EG may give them big money to try and lock them up early because they're unrestricted. And then, other teams will know how much luxtax room we have left and they'll be able to try and poach Sato and Portis with offers having a high first year cost.

It's going to be an interesting offseason. There are so many teams with money, and so many free agents out there. Some guys are going to get mispriced early (either too high or too low), a lot of guys will get overpaid, and there will be some bargains later on once teams run out of money.

Overall, the only guy I really care about is Sato, and to a lesser extent, Bryant. All the other free agents are interchangeable. If someone overpays to poach Ariza, fine, we'll go find another 3&D guy like KCP or Terrence Ross and it won't make much difference. The key is, whoever we get, it has to be at a good price.

[Dat2U]

Going into the offseason, we have the following salaries on the books:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Mahinmi - $15.4M
Brown - $3.2M
Howard - $5.6M*
Draft pick - $4.1M
SUBTOTAL: $93.2M (or 87.6M if Howard declines his player option)

I'm certain we won't opt in on Parker's $20M team option because that salary alone is likely to make it impossible to retain most of the rest of the team. The luxtax threshold is $132M. That leaves $38.8M (or maybe $44.4M) to fill out the roster. We have the following players we may or may not wish to retain:

Portis - RFA - Bird Rights
Sato - RFA - Bird Rights
Dekker - RFA - Bird Rights
Bryant - RFA - Early Bird Rights + Gilbert Arenas Provision
Randle - RFA - Non-Bird Rights
Parker - UFA - Non-Bird Rights
Ariza - UFA - Bird Rights
Green - UFA - Non Bird Rights

Those with Bird Rights can be paid whatever we want. Those with Early Bird Rights can be matched up to 175% of their original salary. Those with Non-Bird Rights can be paid 120% of their current salary. Bryant has the Gilbert Arenas provision, which means no contract offer can exceed the MLE over the first 2 years of the deal, and we can use the MLE to match it. Basically, we're going to have to use a portion of the MLE to pay him, which means that we will only have whatever is leftover available to use to retain Jeff Green. We could also use the Bi-Annual Exception on Green which pays up to $3.9M

The TLDR version is that it appears that we have enough cap exceptions to pay everybody what their market price will be, except possibly Jeff Green, depending on the contract of Bryant. So the real question is, how much will these guys cost in total, and will that cost exceed the luxury tax?

My first stab at it looks something like this:

Sato - $9M (Just above the MLE which is probably what other teams will offer)
Bryant - $5M (Not many teams are in need of a center, and Bryant's defensive issues are starting to get exploited)
Green - $3.9M (Bi-Annual Exception. Green might get more elsewhere but he likes it here.)
Randle - $1M (Vet minimum)
McRae - $1M (Vet minimum)
Dekker - $1M (Vet minimum)

That leaves $16M for 2 more players, or $22M for 3 more players if Howard opts out. That money will go to one or more of Ariza, Parker or Portis. I don't know who we're going to get and what they're going to cost. That will depend on the next 28 games plus the draft. It doesn't look like we'll be able to retain all three, and I suspect they're highly inclined to retain Ariza.

It will help greatly if Howard opts out, and I think he might. We can also free up $10M more in cap room by stretching Mahinmi, but I think that's unlikely. The last thing we need is a $5M a year cap charge for the next 3 years when we're already paying Wall not to play.

23-32. I can't see a scenario where 6 guys off this roster deserve to be re-signed. Why keep this bunch together. To do what? Win 35 games next year?

I look at Tomas & Thomas as options to be resigned and that's about it.

Maybe Green to have a vet around but he'd likely have more value to a contending team.

[Ruzious]

I'd be inclined to keep McRae - not that he's a young prospect, but I think he will be quality depth at a cheap price.

[gambitx777]

what are the chances that if we end up with a top 3 pick, EG pulls an EG and trades it to dump wall and add a vet on a one year deal and a struggling young player on a rookie deal that will count as out pick this year and a pick swap or something.

[FAH1223]

what are the chances that if we end up with a top 3 pick, EG pulls an EG and trades it to dump wall and add a vet on a one year deal and a struggling young player on a rookie deal that will count as out pick this year and a pick swap or something.

Let's hope they miss the playoffs and Ted doesn't have EG making that sort of decision.

We need to use our pick, full stop. And we need to get a kid who can be a legitimate All-Star potential player with it. Can't **** this up.

[Dat2U]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. Could he get us Barrett or Morant? That's my target. A long term controllable and inexpensive talent that we can build around.

Roll into next season with Barrett (via Beal), Garland (via our own pick) with Sato, Bryant, Brown and begin a true rebuild.

Bring back Wall slowly. Maybe get him a handful of games at the end of the '19-'20 season.

In '20-'21 he should be on a strict minutes limit, the meantime we can continue the tank and add one more key pick.

If we've drafted right by the '21-22 we could have reloaded with 4 fairly high lottery picks.

[gambitx777]

what are the chances that if we end up with a top 3 pick, EG pulls an EG and trades it to dump wall and add a vet on a one year deal and a struggling young player on a rookie deal that will count as out pick this year and a pick swap or something.

Let's hope they miss the playoffs and Ted doesn't have EG making that sort of decision.

We need to use our pick, full stop. And we need to get a kid who can be a legitimate All-Star potential player with it. Can't **** this up.

What if beal told you, I like it here, but if wall stays I go. would you be willing to trade that pick to get wall gone if you have a chance to keep a proven all star in beal long term. ? im not taking either position im just saying.

[FAH1223]

what are the chances that if we end up with a top 3 pick, EG pulls an EG and trades it to dump wall and add a vet on a one year deal and a struggling young player on a rookie deal that will count as out pick this year and a pick swap or something.

Let's hope they miss the playoffs and Ted doesn't have EG making that sort of decision.

We need to use our pick, full stop. And we need to get a kid who can be a legitimate All-Star potential player with it. Can't **** this up.

What if beal told you, I like it here, but if wall stays I go. would you be willing to trade that pick to get wall gone if you have a chance to keep a proven all star in beal long term. ? im not taking either position im just saying.

Bradley Beal's desires should have no bearing on using our lottery pick. If he wants out, and by all indications so far is that he wants to stay, then you find a trade similar to the one that the Clippers got for Blake Griffin last year.

No one's taking Wall's contract until he can play basketball at a high level and that ain't happening until Fall 2020 at the earliest.

[gambitx777]

Let's hope they miss the playoffs and Ted doesn't have EG making that sort of decision.

We need to use our pick, full stop. And we need to get a kid who can be a legitimate All-Star potential player with it. Can't **** this up.

What if beal told you, I like it here, but if wall stays I go. would you be willing to trade that pick to get wall gone if you have a chance to keep a proven all star in beal long term. ? im not taking either position im just saying.

Bradley Beal's desires should have no bearing on using our lottery pick. If he wants out, and by all indications so far is that he wants to stay, then you find a trade similar to the one that the Clippers got for Blake Griffin last year.

No one's taking Wall's contract until he can play basketball at a high level and that ain't happening until Fall 2020 at the earliest.

IDK, i think there might be a team or two who if they have a high pick and we get 1 or 2 and they see a chance to get barret or zion. they might say hell ok lets take that contract. I'm not advocating it but im saying i wouldn't be shocked if the ping pong balls fell our way and we got at least one or two calls that were willing to think about taking wall off our hands for that pick.

[nate33]

23-32. I can't see a scenario where 6 guys off this roster deserve to be re-signed. Why keep this bunch together. To do what? Win 35 games next year?

I look at Tomas & Thomas as options to be resigned and that's about it.

Maybe Green to have a vet around but he'd likely have more value to a contending team.

Randle, McRae and Dekker are mostly just placeholders. All three of those guys actually seem pretty decent for vet minimum contracts, and they are not the cause of our woeful record. But certainly, if we can find better options, that would be great. The point is, those slots are going to be for minimum salary vets, the best we can find.

When discussing the actual rotation-caliber free agents (the ones that cost more than the vet minimum), you can't forget the rules of the salary cap. Factoring only the 6 guys under contract and 6 minimum salary vets, our cap number is already $99M. That leaves just $11M in cap room if we renounce everyone (including Sato and Bryant). I don't know about you, but I'm not thrilled about a roster that incorporates just Wall, Beal, Brown, Mahinmi, Howard, our pick, and just one $11M player, plus minimum salary vets as players 7 through 14.

Basically, going the cap room route isn't going to work. We need to use exceptions. The only exceptions we have are the MLE exception (about $8.7M), the Bi-Annual ($3.9M), as many vet minimum exceptions as we want (up to $2.1M) and all of the various Bird Exceptions for our current players. The bottom line is that if we want to field a respectable roster rather than completely punt on the season, we're going to have to retain a handful of the guys that are currently on the roster. It's either retain them or try to replace their production with minimum salary guys.

[nate33]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. Could he get us Barrett or Morant? That's my target. A long term controllable and inexpensive talent that we can build around.

Roll into next season with Barrett (via Beal), Garland (via our own pick) with Sato, Bryant, Brown and begin a true rebuild.

Bring back Wall slowly. Maybe get him a handful of games at the end of the '19-'20 season.

In '20-'21 he should be on a strict minutes limit, the meantime we can continue the tank and add one more key pick.

If we've drafted right by the '21-22 we could have reloaded with 4 fairly high lottery picks.

Agreed. This is my preferred plan too. Trade Beal for picks and bottom out.

Unfortunately, all indications are that they intend to keep Beal. And if they intend to keep Beal, they intend to try and win games. And if they intend to try and win games, they're going to bring back much of the existing roster because the contracts of Wall, Beal and Mahinmi alone make rebuilding via free agency an impossibility.