2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (III)

[Riko]

Without fanboy agenda, when was last time a rookie had so much impact in his team Ws?

[TheProfessor]

Personal favorites rookies right now:
Luka: Thought he was going to be best rookie in the draft, hasnt disappointed. His game reminds of White Harden.
JJJ: Second coming of MIA Chris Bosh, wish he was a little more fluid and a better playmaker but you can't have everything. Perfect big for the modern game.
Shai: Kid just plays right
Shamet: Best shooter in the draft
Ayton: So surprised by him, the dude is a passable defender. I think he honestly ends up a better version of KAT.
Carter: Him and Lauri are going to be scary for years to come.
Miles Bridges: Again another kid that plays right, See him as elite 3&D with some ability to create.

[Bob8]

I have to say I’m positively surprised by Bagley and offensive part of Trae, his defense is as bad as expected. I knew JJJ will be very good. At the moment maybe the biggest disappointment in big5 is Ayton. Not that he looks bad, he just hasn’t any influence on Suns game. Part of the reason is that the league is just very difficult for classical bigs, who aren’t rim protectors, other problem is that he and Booker for some reason don’t fit together and third that he’s just too nice guy. He should take the similar approach to the games that Embiid has.

[peZt]

I have to say I’m positively surprised by Bagley and offensive part of Trae, his defense is as bad as expected. I knew JJJ will be very good. At the moment maybe the biggest disappointment in big5 is Ayton. Not that he looks bad, he just hasn’t any influence on Suns game. Part of the reason is that the league is just very difficult for classical bigs, who aren’t rim protectors, other problem is that he and Booker for some reason don’t fit together and third that he’s just too nice guy. He should take the similar approach to the games that Embiid has.

Yeah it doesn't really look like Ayton has much impact on a game, at least for now. He needs to be a lot tougher and more aggressive. But that seems to be one of the things that players can't learn. Either you are tough or you're not.

[JPF]

Dzanan Musa - 30 Pts, 11 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 6-12 3PT.

Watch on YouTube

He’s approaching 220 pounds after entering the season at 197 pounds.

Those are good news. If Musa can add some good weight to his body, he can definately play in NBA, no question there. The way he looked in europe though with 190 pounds or less, he would get eaten alive. Looking forward to see him develop.

[gh123]

Without fanboy agenda, when was last time a rookie had so much impact in his team Ws?

Luka's been carrying this crap of a team like a mad man. Now got help in THJ, the dude is so much better than Wes it's not even remotely close. Without Luka's clutch heroics we'd be bottom 5 right now, but right now we even have a chance at a playoff spot, mathematically

[mixerball]

Luka is 19 years old.

Most 19 years don't have any experience in any level of "professional" ball, so he's not your average youngster.

But to your question - could he improve? It's possible. He at least has a great work ethic that suggests he'd continue to try to improve.

still, there were players (euroleagu mvps) already who played proffesionally in europe and came into league and no one came close to production doncic has in his 1st year at 19. this narrative needs to stop. he isnt doing these things in nba because he played proffesionally in europe. he is doing them because he is incredibly talented and that good.

[Bob8]

Luka is 19 years old.

Most 19 years don't have any experience in any level of "professional" ball, so he's not your average youngster.

But to your question - could he improve? It's possible. He at least has a great work ethic that suggests he'd continue to try to improve.

still, there were players (euroleagu mvps) already who played proffesionally in europe and came into league and no one came close to production doncic has in his 1st year at 19. this narrative needs to stop. he isnt doing these things in nba because he played proffesionally in europe. he is doing them because he is incredibly talented and that good.

Exactly. Almost everyone from Europe was a professional for many years before they came in NBA and they’re nothing more than solid players. Rubio was a professional longer than Luka before he came in NBA. The same goes for Saric, Dragic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Satoransky, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cedi Osman, Korkmaz...The difference between them and Luka is not how long they were professionals before NBA, but how talented they were.
And when we’re talking about how long Luka is a professional, I hope that you understand he was going to a school all this years in Europe, like high school boys in USA. And in schools in Europe players don’t have that many privileges like in USA.

[Wagonband]

Luka is 19 years old.

Most 19 years don't have any experience in any level of "professional" ball, so he's not your average youngster.

But to your question - could he improve? It's possible. He at least has a great work ethic that suggests he'd continue to try to improve.

still, there were players (euroleagu mvps) already who played proffesionally in europe and came into league and no one came close to production doncic has in his 1st year at 19. this narrative needs to stop. he isnt doing these things in nba because he played proffesionally in europe. he is doing them because he is incredibly talented and that good.

Why do people keep saying that? Like it's a question if Luka will improve? He is 19! How many NBA players haven't improved after being 19y old? 0? But Luka will not improve of course, because he played with pros and yada yada yada...

Theoretically, even if he just improves his conditioning and NOTHING alse, which is like a 99,9% chance he will do, as all young players do in the NBA, his season stats will become automatically something like 24/9/6 (more rebounds, less misses at the FT line because of fatigue...). That's considering just a marginal improvment. That's HOF numbers.

And if he does improve other parts of his game as well, his ceiling is beyond those numbers, which is where the cuttoff is for the true generational superstars.

You guys really need to start thinking about this objectively. See how i don't diss anyone in this post? It's because i believe all of these rookies will improve, and this could be the best draft class ever, or at least top 3. But people still saying Doncic will not be able to improve much

He is basically already improving every month this season... What more proof do you need?

[Golden Knight]

Luka is 19 years old.

Most 19 years don't have any experience in any level of "professional" ball, so he's not your average youngster.

But to your question - could he improve? It's possible. He at least has a great work ethic that suggests he'd continue to try to improve.

still, there were players (euroleagu mvps) already who played proffesionally in europe and came into league and no one came close to production doncic has in his 1st year at 19. this narrative needs to stop. he isnt doing these things in nba because he played proffesionally in europe. he is doing them because he is incredibly talented and that good.

It's ridiculous.

How many 22 year-olds and younger have even managed 20/5/5 in NBA history? Only 9 including Luka.
How many 23 and younger have managed 20/5/5? Only 17 including Luka.

The dude is only 19! 19 is 19 whether you have tons of pro experience or not. Pro experience helps but if you are not good in the first place you are not going to put up numbers that Luka is producing right now.

[Ferulci]

Luka is 19 years old.

Most 19 years don't have any experience in any level of "professional" ball, so he's not your average youngster.

But to your question - could he improve? It's possible. He at least has a great work ethic that suggests he'd continue to try to improve.

still, there were players (euroleagu mvps) already who played proffesionally in europe and came into league and no one came close to production doncic has in his 1st year at 19. this narrative needs to stop. he isnt doing these things in nba because he played proffesionally in europe. he is doing them because he is incredibly talented and that good.

This. Those type of "he played professional ball so his ceiling is lower" posts are straight ignorance. What he has done at 19 years in Euroleague is unheard of. If anything, it shows that is ceiling is sky high.
Just ask Brandon Payne...Steph's curry trainer.
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/nba-insider-tom-haberstroh/secret-guard-en-story-luka-doncics-undercover-steph-curry-workout

[BaDaBo]

How about watching games and not just staring at the stat sheet? Luka doesn't care about shooting %, he is hoisting last second shots multiple times a game.. Yes, his shooting lately hasn't been as stellar as it was at the beginning of the season, but it is not that bad either. His FT's worry me a bit, though.

I watch the games man, not all of them, but I do watch.

For a kid who lives off of a reputation for getting to the hoop, it's quite interesting that he's shooting jumpers at almost a 5:1 clip compared to layups.

1- What reputation are you talking about?

2- Which perimeter player who shoots 3s has much more than 20% of his shots at the rim?

Irving is at .236 and one of the reason is that he avoids contact : 3.6 FTA vs 6.3 FTA for Luka.

You are being irrational.

And like it has been said, I don't have the numbers, but if you took out Luka's last second "shots", he would go from a 35% to a 37% 3pt shooter (if he had 18 such shots this year, which I think must be close). Not bad for a rookie who creates most of his shots.

I'm very late to the conversation but let me put this out there. Do as you wish with this info.

Luka is 6/36 or 16,7% on 3pt with 2 seconds or less on the shot clock. Removing those shots his season 3pt% is 36,9% rather than 34,9%.

Luka is 1/14 or 7,1% on 3pt with 2 seconds or less on the shot clock and the distance is greater than 35ft. Removing those shots his season 3pt% is 36,1% rather than 34,9%.

Stats from Basketball-reference.

[Bob8]

I watch the games man, not all of them, but I do watch.

For a kid who lives off of a reputation for getting to the hoop, it's quite interesting that he's shooting jumpers at almost a 5:1 clip compared to layups.

1- What reputation are you talking about?

2- Which perimeter player who shoots 3s has much more than 20% of his shots at the rim?

Irving is at .236 and one of the reason is that he avoids contact : 3.6 FTA vs 6.3 FTA for Luka.

You are being irrational.

And like it has been said, I don't have the numbers, but if you took out Luka's last second "shots", he would go from a 35% to a 37% 3pt shooter (if he had 18 such shots this year, which I think must be close). Not bad for a rookie who creates most of his shots.

I'm very late to the conversation but let me put this out there. Do as you wish with this info.

Luka is 6/36 or 16,7% on 3pt with 2 seconds or less on the shot clock. Removing those shots his season 3pt% is 36,9% rather than 34,9%.

Luka is 1/14 or 7,1% on 3pt with 2 seconds or less on the shot clock and the distance is greater than 35ft. Removing those shots his season 3pt% is 36,1% rather than 34,9%.

Stats from Basketball-reference.

He's 0/13 in 40+ Ft. Without this his % is 36.3%. And no, players are normally not taking that many almost impossible shots. Trae has taken only 2 of this, the same Harden, Durant 0, Curry 7.

[King Ken]

Without fanboy agenda, when was last time a rookie had so much impact in his team Ws?

Luka's been carrying this crap of a team like a mad man. Now got help in THJ, the dude is so much better than Wes it's not even remotely close. Without Luka's clutch heroics we'd be bottom 5 right now, but right now we even have a chance at a playoff spot, mathematically

Don't let THJ fool ya, he always has about 5 great games in him

[leolozon]

1- What reputation are you talking about?

2- Which perimeter player who shoots 3s has much more than 20% of his shots at the rim?

Irving is at .236 and one of the reason is that he avoids contact : 3.6 FTA vs 6.3 FTA for Luka.

You are being irrational.

And like it has been said, I don't have the numbers, but if you took out Luka's last second "shots", he would go from a 35% to a 37% 3pt shooter (if he had 18 such shots this year, which I think must be close). Not bad for a rookie who creates most of his shots.

I'm very late to the conversation but let me put this out there. Do as you wish with this info.

Luka is 6/36 or 16,7% on 3pt with 2 seconds or less on the shot clock. Removing those shots his season 3pt% is 36,9% rather than 34,9%.

Luka is 1/14 or 7,1% on 3pt with 2 seconds or less on the shot clock and the distance is greater than 35ft. Removing those shots his season 3pt% is 36,1% rather than 34,9%.

Stats from Basketball-reference.

He's 0/13 in 40+ Ft. Without this his % is 36.3%. And no, players are normally not taking that many almost impossible shots. Trae has taken only 2 of this, the same Harden, Durant 0, Curry 7.

Even without using time constraint, he's at 42.4% when shooting from 22-24 feet (so next to the line, which is where spot-up shooters are usually hanging) and 36.7% when shooting from under 30 feet. Let's remember that he shoots mostly unassisted and that players tend to get better at shooting as they age.

To say that he should stop shooting 3s and stop developping is outside game is ludicrous.

[gh123]

Without fanboy agenda, when was last time a rookie had so much impact in his team Ws?

Luka's been carrying this crap of a team like a mad man. Now got help in THJ, the dude is so much better than Wes it's not even remotely close. Without Luka's clutch heroics we'd be bottom 5 right now, but right now we even have a chance at a playoff spot, mathematically

Don't let THJ fool ya, he always has about 5 great games in him

Meh, still a lot better than Wes, including defense. Also, he's like 26 I believe, at the start of his prime. He should be getting better playing alongside competent teammates as long as he stays under control and doesn't try to do crazy stuff.

[Dirk]

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

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jobbed

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clutch and jobbed again

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Dirk cameo

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[Buzzard]

Last 30 Day stats are staying consistent.

Luka:
23.3 PTS, 8.2 REB, 6.9 AST, 2.9 TO, .427 FG%, .700 FT%, .304 3PT%
Trae:
20.6 PTS, 4.2 REB, 8.1 AST, 3.7 TO, .453 FG%, .816 FT%, .366 3PT%

TS% for January and February.
Luka:
.530 and .551
Trae:
.577 and .551

eFG% for January and February.
Luka:
.492 and .513
Trae:
.518 and .505

I understand Luka will win the ROY; but some of you are tripping if you don't think Trae has future all-star written all over him.

[Stribor]

Last 30 Day stats are staying consistent.

Luka:
23.3 PTS, 8.2 REB, 6.9 AST, 2.9 TO, .427 FG%, .700 FT%, .304 3PT%
Trae:
20.6 PTS, 4.2 REB, 8.1 AST, 3.7 TO, .453 FG%, .816 FT%, .366 3PT%

TS% for January and February.
Luka:
.530 and .551
Trae:
.577 and .551

eFG% for January and February.
Luka:
.492 and .513
Trae:
.518 and .505

I understand Luka will win the ROY; but some of you are tripping if you don't think Trae has future all-star written all over him.

Yes, he has. It is actually even greater nod to Luka, he seems to be undisputed ROY in the rookie class that could well become known as one of the best classes in the history. Compare this to 2 years ago when Saric and Brogdon were the fighting each other (ok after Biid injury)

[Bob8]

Last 30 Day stats are staying consistent:
Luka:
23.3 PTS, 8.2 REB, 6.9 AST, 2.9 TO, .427 FG%, .700 FT%, .304 3PT%
Trae:
20.6 PTS, 4.2 REB, 8.1 AST, 3.7 TO, .453 FG%, .816 FT%, .366 3PT%

TS% for January and February.
Luka:
.530 and .551
Trae:
.577 and .551

eFG% for January and February.
Luka:
49.2 and 51.3
Trae:
51.8 and 50.5

I understand Luka will win the ROY; but some of you are tripping if you don't think Trae has future all-star written all over him.

Nobody is denying that Trae is playing very well lately, but it’s interesting how you’re using raw stats and shooting % and is in total denial of advanced stats.

Trae vs. Luka

BPM -3.2 vs. 3.9
OBPM 0.00 vs. 3.0
DBPM -3.2. vs O.9
VORP -0.5 vs. 2.6
ORTG 102, DRTG 117 vs. ORTG 109, DRTG 108
RPM -3.27 vs 2.64
ORPM 1.08 vs 3.04
DRPM -4.35 vs. -0.4
WINS -0.16 vs. 6.12

The difference in advanced stats is brutal. That’s the difference between top30 player and below average starter. Nobody knows what will future bring, but if you want to show with raw stats how near is Trae to Luka at the moment, it’s obvious you’re totally wrong.