Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[Shanghai Kid]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. Could he get us Barrett or Morant? That's my target. A long term controllable and inexpensive talent that we can build around... and begin a true rebuild.

Bring back Wall slowly. Maybe get him a handful of games at the end of the '19-'20 season.

In '20-'21 he should be on a strict minutes limit, the meantime we can continue the tank and add one more key pick.

If we've drafted right by the '21-22 we could have reloaded with 4 fairly high lottery picks.

Agreed. This is my preferred plan too. Trade Beal for picks and bottom out...

Mine too. But, one question of Dat -- what is the role of John Wall in this? Are you suggesting that in '21-22, when he comes off that strict minutes limit, he is likely to be a key, functioning part of that rebuilt team?

Doesn't that seem unlikely? What's the usual profile for a 31-year old player whose excellence has been based on elite athleticism coming off of a major bummer of an injury that's kept him off the court for most of 3 years?

It strikes me that the strategy might better be to trade him at whatever point it becomes possible.

A lot depends on how John looks when he comes back.

Let's say in the unlikely scenario he comes back at an All-Star level, you are adding to him a rebuilding team maybe coming into it's own. Then you have trade options up.

But if hes terrible, we are basically stuck.

[tontoz]

The fact that we are talking about trading Beal just shows our desperation.

[Nyk4lyfe]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. Could he get us Barrett or Morant? That's my target. A long term controllable and inexpensive talent that we can build around.

Roll into next season with Barrett (via Beal), Garland (via our own pick) with Sato, Bryant, Brown and begin a true rebuild.

Bring back Wall slowly. Maybe get him a handful of games at the end of the '19-'20 season.

In '20-'21 he should be on a strict minutes limit, the meantime we can continue the tank and add one more key pick.

If we've drafted right by the '21-22 we could have reloaded with 4 fairly high lottery picks.

#4 pick + DSJ + pure cap space for Beal

[payitforward]

...
Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Mahinmi - $15.4M
Brown - $3.2M
Howard - $5.6M*
Draft pick - $4.1M
SUBTOTAL: $93.2M (or 87.6M if Howard declines his player option)

...
Sato - $9M (Just above the MLE which is probably what other teams will offer)
Bryant - $5M (Not many teams are in need of a center, and Bryant's defensive issues are starting to get exploited)
Green - $3.9M (Bi-Annual Exception. Green might get more elsewhere but he likes it here.)
Randle - $1M (Vet minimum)
McRae - $1M (Vet minimum)
Dekker - $1M (Vet minimum)

That leaves $16M for 2 more players, or $22M for 3 more players if Howard opts out. That money will go to one or more of Ariza, Parker or Portis. ... It doesn't look like we'll be able to retain all three, and I suspect they're highly inclined to retain Ariza.

It will help greatly if Howard opts out, and I think he might....

This is great, nate -- but... I have some questions/revisions (surprise!) -- but... not so many (also a surprise?).

Obviously, Howard would opt out only if a) he got a better offer, or b) he decided to retire. I don't think he'll get a better offer alas. & retiring w/ almost $6m on the table... I don't see it. So, I fear he'll pick up that option.

Sato -- We'd better get an extension negotiated soon, rather than hope to match whatever Sato gets offered in the off-season. In the current NBA it only takes 1 desperate nutcase to cost you a player you'd really like to keep (unless Ernie is the nutcase, of course, in which case he helps you dump someone you're dying to get rid of). That might make it quite rational to pay a little more to get it done early.

Green -- I'm kind of amazed at how consistently Jeff Green is overrated on this Board, including by you. Yes, he's a good guy, yes, he's a terrific locker room presence (hmm, what is our record so far??) -- & he is having a terrific year shooting the ball. But, he'll be 32 when next season starts. &, as a PF, Jeff is averaging less than 6.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. It's simple: you can get Jeff Green's production for the cost of a vet minimum salary, & he has no future, so that's not what you're buying either. That said -- I'm certainly delighted with him at a veteran minimum salary, & I think he'll be available for that. Btw, a vet. min. salary for someone with his years is $2.4m.

Dekker -- Just as Green is over-rated, so too are you under-rating what Dekker has provided -- he's a lot more productive than Jeff, though in fewer minutes. Above all, he's 24, still improving, & cheap. That's a guy to sew up for a few years on an affordable deal with raises/team options. I know I'm broken record on the subject, but the way you win in the NBA is to have as many guys as possible who are more productive than what they are being paid. The more control you have over guys like that the better. It would be easy to get that in Dekker's case. If Dekker were signed for $3/4/5m over 3 years w/ team options, I'm pretty sure it would turn out to be a bargain contract.

In the case of Bryant, IMO he has barely scratched the surface of his talent. What's desirable is to get the longest-term contract possible. Here too, I'd be willing for it to rise from year to year, with team options. It can rise significantly in years 3 & 4 (if he'd sign for that long). That will look like more money to him now than it will in a few years if he continues to improve.

I like Randle; he seems a great kid & just about good enough to be on an NBA roster (esp. given his ability to sink open 3's). But I don't think there'll be any competition for his services, so no need to give him any more than the minimum.

Jordan McRae is irrelevant. He's not an NBA player. Plus, he turns 28 next month. I'd rather fill his spot with just about anyone 22 or under.

[queridiculo]

Yes. We have Bird Rights on Portis.

I don't know what he would cost. That's the hardest question to answer in this offseason. There are so many free agents and so many teams with cap room. A lot will depend on how many top tier free agents (Kawhi, Kyrie, Durant, etc.) switch teams. If many do in fact change teams, then a lot of cap room will be devoted to those guys, leaving much less available for second tier and third tier guys. But if Durant, Kyrie, etc. stay put, then teams like NY, LA and the Clippers will have a boatload of cap room and nothing to spend it on, so they are likely to drive up the cost of second-tier free agents.

Portis turned down $50 million last year, so my guess is he'll go to the highest bidder.

I hope that's not going to be the Wizards.

Anything more than the MLE would be an overpay.

[Eli Babak]

Portis turned down $50 million last year, so my guess is he'll go to the highest bidder.

I hope that's not going to be the Wizards.

Anything more than the MLE would be an overpay.

I agree. I've watched him play for 1.5 years now and he is just not that good or anything special. I'm afraid Ernie will throw big money at him or match a large offer because he has to keep his boys around, ditto Parker (though he isn't a RFA). Those guys right now are just playing for their next contracts. I think Bobby is a hard working dude who's worth 7-9M/year maybe but I have no faith in Parker.

What a crappy situation. They can either keep this **** core together and keep fighting for a playoff spot next year or trade Beal and start over - Wall's contract is awful but maybe when he has 2-3 years left in his deal and he's healthy and playing at decent level he can be moved.

By the way, I listed what our glorious GM did this season:

- Jodie Meeks (signed in 2017 and gave him a player option)
- Jason Smith (signed in 2016 to a 3y deal with a player option)
- Kelly Oubre (15th pick in 2015, used 2016 and 2019 2nds to move up in the draft)
- Austin Rivers (traded Marcin Gortat (our 2014 1st) for him just few months ago)
- Otto Porter (3rd pick in 2013)
- Markieff Morris (our 2016 1st)
- 2022 2nd to Cleveland
- 2023 2nd to New Orleans
- removed protections from 2020 2nd round pick
- a lot of cash

->

- Sam Dekker (18th pick in 2015)
- Trevor Ariza (expiring 33y old wing player)
- Jabari Parker (not gonna explain his situation here)
- Bobby Portis (22nd pick in 2015)
- Wesley Johnson (expiring awful player)
- 2023 2nd from Chicago (top-36 protected)

Luckily I have a reason to watch Chicago and even though GarPax & Boylen are awful too at least they have a real young core and something to build around.

[nate33]

Portis turned down $50 million last year, so my guess is he'll go to the highest bidder.

I hope that's not going to be the Wizards.

Anything more than the MLE would be an overpay.

I agree. I've watched him play for 1.5 years now and he is just not that good or anything special. I'm afraid Ernie will throw big money at him or match a large offer because he has to keep his boys around, ditto Parker (though he isn't a RFA). Those guys right now are just playing for their next contracts. I think Bobby is a hard working dude who's worth 7-9M/year maybe but I have no faith in Parker.

Fortunately, EG just doesn't have the flexibility to throw a lot of big money around to anyone.

It's a pretty sure bet that he'll retain Sato since we lack a PG otherwise. And after retaining him, the payroll will be in the neighborhood of $102M, leaving only $30M for everyone else on the roster. He simply can't throw $15M or so at Bobby Portis.

At this point, I think the biggest danger is that he throws a $15-18M offer at Parker. But frankly, I could at least live with it because Parker is a genuine talent. Yeah, it's a gamble that he won't revert to his old ways, but we're already in a position where the only way to field a .500 roster is to win a few gambles. The worst case scenario is that it blows up in our face and we're stuck with another terrible contract over the next 3 years. But if that happens, we'll just tank, which is what most of us want in the first place.

The one thing I don't want is to spend $12M on an aging vet like Ariza. There's no upside to that. He'll just help us win 37 games instead of 33. What's the point.

[payitforward]

But, one question for Dat; what is the role of John Wall in this?...

A lot depends on how John looks when he comes back.

Let's say in the unlikely scenario he comes back at an All-Star level, you are adding to him a rebuilding team maybe coming into it's own. Then you have trade options up.

But if hes terrible, we are basically stuck.

Yes, but -- to quote our own GM -- "this is a business; you have to look long-term." Which means you have to make a call NOW or at least soon about what is most likely from John Wall two years from now. You can't wait & see & react.

That's why I raised the question to Dat....

[Ruzious]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. Could he get us Barrett or Morant? That's my target. A long term controllable and inexpensive talent that we can build around.

Roll into next season with Barrett (via Beal), Garland (via our own pick) with Sato, Bryant, Brown and begin a true rebuild.

Bring back Wall slowly. Maybe get him a handful of games at the end of the '19-'20 season.

In '20-'21 he should be on a strict minutes limit, the meantime we can continue the tank and add one more key pick.

If we've drafted right by the '21-22 we could have reloaded with 4 fairly high lottery picks.

#4 pick + DSJ + pure cap space for Beal

I would do it - even though the draft is very week in that area. I'd then look to trade down - probably with Boston.

It would give us the ability to sign both Parker and Portis - assuming we want to sign them both.

[payitforward]

Portis ...Anything more than the MLE would be an overpay.

I agree. I've watched him play for 1.5 years now and he is just not that good or anything special.... Bobby is a hard working dude who's worth 7-9M/year maybe but I have no faith in Parker.

Fortunately, EG ... simply can't throw $15M or so at Bobby Portis.

At this point, I think the biggest danger is that he throws a $15-18M offer at Parker. But frankly, I could at least live with it because Parker is a genuine talent. Yeah, it's a gamble ...The worst case scenario is that it blows up in our face and we're stuck with another terrible contract over the next 3 years. But if that happens, we'll just tank, which is what most of us want in the first place.

The one thing I don't want is to spend $12M on an aging vet like Ariza. There's no upside to that. He'll just help us win 37 games instead of 33. What's the point.

1. Ernie will do anything he needs to do, pay any amount he has to pay, to keep at least one of Portis & Parker. Otherwise, he'll have made himself look like a bozo (pick a guy #3 in the draft, max him, then give him away for no return). Ernie never does anything that reveals his mistakes. No matter how much he gives 1 or both those guys, however bad the overpay(s) he will still have kicked the can down the road, which is all that matters to him.

2. Yes, Bobby Portis is certainly worth more than $7-9m. That's pitched too low in the current NBA. But, $16m -- what he wants -- is too high, I agree. But the fact that he turned down 4 yrs/$50m doesn't mean Ernie can't sign him for @$12m a year. It'll just be for 2 years instead of 4. That's a good bet for Bobby & his agent. Salaries will continue to rise.

3. If someone gives Jabari Parker a 3 year contract for $15-18m a year -- a guy who has PROVEN he's a bust over almost 5 years in the league -- they are nuts. I don't think anybody is quite that nuts.

4. But, if Bobby goes elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie offer Parker a $15m 1-year contract -- good faith, make good. But, keep in mind: that's what his $20m contract with the Bulls was! Moreover, they played him 27 minutes a game for the first 39 games of the season. He was so bad that they proceeded to make him inactive.

That's not the way I'd go. If I offered him anything at all it would be a 3-year contract with a cheap first year & team options for years 2 & 3, & quite big raises for each of those years. Make him prove something.

(No, btw, his two games with us are not evidence in the other direction. No one questions his talent!)

[Dat2U]

Agreed. This is my preferred plan too. Trade Beal for picks and bottom out...

Mine too. But, one question of Dat -- what is the role of John Wall in this? Are you suggesting that in '21-22, when he comes off that strict minutes limit, he is likely to be a key, functioning part of that rebuilt team?

Doesn't that seem unlikely? What's the usual profile for a 31-year old player whose excellence has been based on elite athleticism coming off of a major bummer of an injury that's kept him off the court for most of 3 years?

It strikes me that the strategy might better be to trade him at whatever point it becomes possible.

A lot depends on how John looks when he comes back.

Let's say in the unlikely scenario he comes back at an All-Star level, you are adding to him a rebuilding team maybe coming into it's own. Then you have trade options up.

But if hes terrible, we are basically stuck.

I have no idea what he'll look like but either way we'll be in far better off in 21-22 than now as we could have potentially 4 high picks added to the roster. One from dealing Beal and the 2019, 2020 & 2021 picks. Wall will only have 2 years left on his deal at that time and could have possibly worked his way back into a trade-able contract. If not, maybe stretching the last year isn't the worst option considering the cap will continue to grow.

[Dat2U]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. Could he get us Barrett or Morant? That's my target. A long term controllable and inexpensive talent that we can build around.

Roll into next season with Barrett (via Beal), Garland (via our own pick) with Sato, Bryant, Brown and begin a true rebuild.

Bring back Wall slowly. Maybe get him a handful of games at the end of the '19-'20 season.

In '20-'21 he should be on a strict minutes limit, the meantime we can continue the tank and add one more key pick.

If we've drafted right by the '21-22 we could have reloaded with 4 fairly high lottery picks.

#4 pick + DSJ + pure cap space for Beal

I would do it - even though the draft is very week in that area. I'd then look to trade down - probably with Boston.

It would give us the ability to sign both Parker and Portis - assuming we want to sign them both.

Dear God please tell me were not already concerned about keeping players who have proven to be bad?

[Ruzious]

#4 pick + DSJ + pure cap space for Beal

I would do it - even though the draft is very week in that area. I'd then look to trade down - probably with Boston.

It would give us the ability to sign both Parker and Portis - assuming we want to sign them both.

Dear God please tell me were not already concerned about keeping players who have proven to be bad?

They're 23/24, and for good or bad - they're on our roster, so we have to deal with the situation we're given. I'm not ready to write them off. I want to see how they play the rest of the season before making a determination either way. Both have at least as good a chance of succeeding as Brook Lopez did.

[Dat2U]

I agree. I've watched him play for 1.5 years now and he is just not that good or anything special.... Bobby is a hard working dude who's worth 7-9M/year maybe but I have no faith in Parker.

Fortunately, EG ... simply can't throw $15M or so at Bobby Portis.

At this point, I think the biggest danger is that he throws a $15-18M offer at Parker. But frankly, I could at least live with it because Parker is a genuine talent. Yeah, it's a gamble ...The worst case scenario is that it blows up in our face and we're stuck with another terrible contract over the next 3 years. But if that happens, we'll just tank, which is what most of us want in the first place.

The one thing I don't want is to spend $12M on an aging vet like Ariza. There's no upside to that. He'll just help us win 37 games instead of 33. What's the point.

1. Ernie will do anything he needs to do, pay any amount he has to pay, to keep at least one of Portis & Parker. Otherwise, he'll have made himself look like a bozo (pick a guy #3 in the draft, max him, then give him away for no return). Ernie never does anything that reveals his mistakes. No matter how much he gives 1 or both those guys, however bad the overpay(s) he will still have kicked the can down the road, which is all that matters to him.

2. Yes, Bobby Portis is certainly worth more than $7-9m. That's pitched too low in the current NBA. But, $16m -- what he wants -- is too high, I agree. But the fact that he turned down 4 yrs/$50m doesn't mean Ernie can't sign him for @$12m a year. It'll just be for 2 years instead of 4. That's a good bet for Bobby & his agent. Salaries will continue to rise.

3. If someone gives Jabari Parker a 3 year contract for $15-18m a year -- a guy who has PROVEN he's a bust over almost 5 years in the league -- they are nuts. I don't think anybody is quite that nuts.

4. But, if Bobby goes elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie offer Parker a $15m 1-year contract -- good faith, make good. But, keep in mind: that's what his $20m contract with the Bulls was! Moreover, they played him 27 minutes a game for the first 39 games of the season. He was so bad that they proceeded to make him inactive.

That's not the way I'd go. If I offered him anything at all it would be a 3-year contract with a cheap first year & team options for years 2 & 3, & quite big raises for each of those years. Make him prove something.

(No, btw, his two games with us are not evidence in the other direction. No one questions his talent!)

Despite what the board may think, I'm actually optimistic about the immediate future.

Of course Ted/Ernie will not tank and will try to put together a roster that can compete for a playoff spot.

And of course this is something they'll fail miserably at.

They can hardly put together a playoff team with the full cap at their disposal.

Now we expect them to do so with close to $60 Mil in dead cap next season (Wall, Mahinmi & Howard)???

Let them have at it. They can't give anyone more than a 4 year deal so let them promptly box themselves into the corner right after they dumped Otto b/c they had boxed themselves into a corner. We've got Wall for the next 4 seasons so any cap hell they create is absolutely fine by me. Its Ted's dime.

And the end result will likely be a solid lottery pick because of their incompetence.

My only fear would be them dealing our future 1st round picks.

[Eli Babak]

Bobby Portis is certainly worth more than $7-9m. That's pitched too low in the current NBA. But, $16m -- what he wants -- is too high, I agree. But the fact that he turned down 4 yrs/$50m doesn't mean Ernie can't sign him for @$12m a year. It'll just be for 2 years instead of 4. That's a good bet for Bobby & his agent. Salaries will continue to rise.

But, if Bobby goes elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie offer Parker a $15m 1-year contract -- good faith, make good. But, keep in mind: that's what his $20m contract with the Bulls was! Moreover, they played him 27 minutes a game for the first 39 games of the season. He was so bad that they proceeded to make him inactive.

That's not the way I'd go. If I offered him anything at all it would be a 3-year contract with a cheap first year & team options for years 2 & 3, & quite big raises for each of those years. Make him prove something.

This makes too much sense. If they keep Portis/Parker it has to be 2-3 year contract with a team option/partial guarantee (knowing Ernie it'd be a player option instead).

Sigh. Imagine if (please when) they miss the playoffs and Ernie actually gets fired (I know that will not happen because Ted loves him). That would be one of the greatest days of my life.

[payitforward]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. ...

#4 pick + DSJ + pure cap space for Beal

Who's DSJ? I'm guessing you mean DeAndre Jordan, right?

He'd only be in the deal to make the numbers work, so in terms of value exchanged it's just the #4 pick for Beal straight up.

Beal was picked #3 in 2012. Here are the #4 & #5 picks since we took Brad: Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Aaron Gordon, Dante Exxum, Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Josh Jackson, DeAaron Fox, Jaren Jackson Jr., & Trae Young.

How many of those fourteen guys would you rather have than Brad Beal? Well... I'm sure we can agree to eliminate ten immediately. The other four are Porzingis, Fox, JJJ, & Young.

Porzingis hasn't become good yet. I wouldn't be interested in him.
Young might turn out to be very good, but he might not. I wouldn't trade Beal for him.
JJJ has great potential. In our situation, I'd trade Beal for him.
DeAaron Fox. I'd trade Beal for him as well.

That's two guys out of fourteen. Does that explain why we might be reluctant to make your trade?

[Eli Babak]

For 2019 we need to bottom out.

I'd deal Beal for the highest pick possible. ...

#4 pick + DSJ + pure cap space for Beal

Who's DSJ? I'm guessing you mean DeAndre Jordan, right?

He means Dennis Smith Jr. who's been pretty bad so far in his short NBA career. It would be a gamble for the Wiz. If Knicks offered 3rd pick we could get Barrett or Morant and that'd be nice.

[queridiculo]

This makes too much sense. If they keep Portis/Parker it has to be 2-3 year contract with a team option/partial guarantee (knowing Ernie it'd be a player option instead).

Sigh. Imagine if (please when) they miss the playoffs and Ernie actually gets fired (I know that will not happen because Ted loves him). That would be one of the greatest days of my life.

Would you really put it past Ted and Ernest to just roll with Parker's $20 million for the 2019 season?

Not exercising Parker's team option checks multiple boxes in the Ernieverse.

- recent lottery pick (no.2!!!!)
- young
- potential
- injury prone (if things go sideways he's already got an alibi)
- maintain salary cap flexibility
- addresses a need (PF), can play multiple positions

Yeah, the Wizards are going to feel the squeeze, but they've almost go $30 million in insurance money to play with before going deep into the tax starts hurting Leonsis bottom line.

[TGW]

This makes too much sense. If they keep Portis/Parker it has to be 2-3 year contract with a team option/partial guarantee (knowing Ernie it'd be a player option instead).

Sigh. Imagine if (please when) they miss the playoffs and Ernie actually gets fired (I know that will not happen because Ted loves him). That would be one of the greatest days of my life.

Would you really put it past Ted and Ernest to just roll with Parker's $20 million for the 2019 season?

Not exercising Parker's team option checks multiple boxes in the Ernieverse.

- recent lottery pick (no.2!!!!)
- young
- potential
- injury prone (if things go sideways he's already got an alibi)
- maintain salary cap flexibility
- addresses a need (PF), can play multiple positions

Yeah, the Wizards are going to feel the squeeze, but they've almost go $30 million in insurance money to play with before going deep into the tax starts hurting Leonsis bottom line.

I'm actually not opposed to keeping Parker and letting Ariza and Green walk.

And dare I say it...Grunfailed actually might have won that Bulls trade.

*edit* Usually agree with Dat on most, but trading Beal is a bad idea. He's too good. He's young. He's market value. Not too many players that check all of those checkboxes. Trading him for anything less than Zion would be a mistake.

[Dat2U]

But, one question for Dat; what is the role of John Wall in this?...

A lot depends on how John looks when he comes back.

Let's say in the unlikely scenario he comes back at an All-Star level, you are adding to him a rebuilding team maybe coming into it's own. Then you have trade options up.

But if hes terrible, we are basically stuck.

Yes, but -- to quote our own GM -- "this is a business; you have to look long-term." Which means you have to make a call NOW or at least soon about what is most likely from John Wall two years from now. You can't wait & see & react.

That's why I raised the question to Dat....

The stuck part isn't in two years, it's right now. We'll still be stuck in two years but we can be in a decent position if we've offset Wall's deal by having some productive rookie deals on the cap. And as Wall's deal gets shorter, the chances he can be moved increases.