2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (III)

[leolozon]

To say that he should stop shooting 3s and stop developping is outside game is ludicrous.

False. Nobody said, that certainly not myself but it's clear that's the bizarre conversation going on in your head.

But jacking up 8-10 three's a game? Ya no, hard pass.

Good thing he only averages 6.9.

[Bob8]

He used the 27 game sample from my post. I compared Trae’s first 28 games and his last 27 games.

And I’m sure you have started with Trae’s bad game? Look, you can do whatever you want, but you have to understand that I can do the same for Luka or Mavs. So it’s nothing wrong, when you have only 1 player/team in your preferred timeline, but when you put in another player/team the comparison is not fair anymore, because you deliberately has chosen the timeline which suits your purpose.

I was comparing how Trae has improved through out the 1st and 2nd half of the season so far. Had nothing to do with Luka or the Mavs.

Yes, but the other one used it for comparison.

[enigmatics]

Good thing he only averages 6.9.

That has steadily been increasing as the season has progressed.

[Sactowndog]

I like Bagley and he's looked even better than I thought...but kind of funny that he puts up 30/7 and suddenly it's, "Bagley has a higher ceiling than Luka!" Meanwhile on the same day, Luka puts up 28/9/6 and 13 in the 4th, including what would be the go-ahead winner, yet that's supposed to be no big deal (which, in a way, it is since he does it so often...)

I think people have said Bagley has a higher ceiling for quite some time. That’s no slam on Luka who is already a special player. But the fact is Luka already is close to maximizing the spacing he generates on his step backs. How much more space do you think he can generate? Luka is highly highly skilled already at 19. People want to say he’s 19 but their is some limit to the amount of polish you can put on an already polished game.

[Bob8]

I like Bagley and he's looked even better than I thought...but kind of funny that he puts up 30/7 and suddenly it's, "Bagley has a higher ceiling than Luka!" Meanwhile on the same day, Luka puts up 28/9/6 and 13 in the 4th, including what would be the go-ahead winner, yet that's supposed to be no big deal (which, in a way, it is since he does it so often...)

I think people have said Bagley has a higher ceiling for quite some time. That’s no slam on Luka who is already a special player. But the fact is Luka already is close to maximizing the spacing he generates on his step backs. How much more space do you think he can generate? Luka is highly highly skilled already at 19. People want to say he’s 19 but their is some limit to the amount of polish you can put on an already polished game.

15 kg of muscles, 5% points on shooting, 5.5 points, 2.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds.

[burek3]

They are not even the same mold of players, their ceilings are incomparable.

[shakes0]

And I’m sure you have started with Trae’s bad game? Look, you can do whatever you want, but you have to understand that I can do the same for Luka or Mavs. So it’s nothing wrong, when you have only 1 player/team in your preferred timeline, but when you put in another player/team the comparison is not fair anymore, because you deliberately has chosen the timeline which suits your purpose.

I was comparing how Trae has improved through out the 1st and 2nd half of the season so far. Had nothing to do with Luka or the Mavs.

Yes, but the other one used it for comparison.

yes, because someone else used that same sample size to suggest that Trae was piling up stats for a bottom feeder while Luka was doing it for a much better team. What other sample size am I supposed to use there Bob?

The only poster you should take issue with in this discussion is the guy who made the false claim about the teams' Trae and Luka play for. I merely responded with facts.

[LukaV]

But the fact is Luka already is close to maximizing the spacing he generates on his step backs. How much more space do you think he can generate? Luka is highly highly skilled already at 19. People want to say he’s 19 but their is some limit to the amount of polish you can put on an already polished game.

Already posted in this thread once or twice, but worth reading again for anyone who thinks Luka doesn't have a lot of room left to grow/improve - https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/nba-insider-tom-haberstroh/secret-guard-en-story-luka-doncics-undercover-steph-curry-workout .

Some excerpts and quotes by Curry’s longtime trainer:
1.) “These are really difficult concepts,” Payne says. “When you’re Stephen, these are difficult concepts. This wasn’t a BS workout. This was a real I-have-something-that-I-have-to-get-done-with-Stephen workout. To be thrown into that and respond as well as he did, it was impressive.” This particular drill took Curry three minutes flat to complete. His shots were flawless, barely grazing the rim. Doncic, trying to keep up with the commands and pace, took nine minutes and forty-eight seconds. (Doncic is also still learning English, his fourth language.)

2.) “That’s the first sign of neurological overload,” Payne corrects me. “Like, it’s too much for a player. He couldn’t breathe because his mouth is closed.” /.../ Something I’ve never considered: How good will Doncic be when he learns how to breathe properly?

3.) “His footwork now is incredible, it’s amazing,” Payne says. “At the end of games? It is incredible. But if you think about it, it’s completely unrefined. Think about how good he’s going to be if he does get this stuff.”

4.) “He’s made for this,” Duffy says of Doncic. “I don’t know what the ceiling is. Does Steph Curry put a ceiling on himself? Does Steve Nash? Kobe Bryant? Luka is definitely in that echelon.”

5.) He quickly shows me a spreadsheet where they’re tracking every one of Doncic’s shots and pairing it with the drills he did in August. Doncic’s shooting percentages on Escape Dribbles, Wing Curl 2s, Slide and Read, all listed. Each shot has a link to both the in-game video and the workout video from August. Payne: "There’s a whole lot of meat left on that bone, man. A whole lot.”

///

So, just from this article you can see Curry's longtime trainer sees a lot of room for improvement, for example proper breathing (Curry had to be taught how to improve his breathing patterns) and footwork. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. He's been doing his floaters and stepbacks for a year&a half or a bit more -> can you imagine how much better they'll be once he's done 10.000 repetitions in the next couple of years? His midrange pull-up is relatively rare compared to his other shots -> can you imagine if he masters that? If he works with Dirk on his fadeaway? What happens when he improves his split-second decision making? For someone as good as he is, he's still extremely inexperienced and makes sub-optimal decisions (see last nights final two shots against Portland)? What about his condition, something that been one of the biggest knocks on him entering the season? With better conditioning comes better shooting in the later stages of the game, better decision making, more minutes on the floor, better free throws (consider that he still has a lot of % left to improve with his FTs). He's been playing basketball professionally for a bit over three years now (first year with Real in 15/16 he didn't play a lot, around 11-12 mpg). Let's say, for the purpose of this discussion, that the top NCAA programs are comparable (in terms of preparing a player for NBA) to Euroleague/ACB. Now consider how many great NBA players in the past came to this league with 4 (not 3, like Dončić) years of tutoring by the best NCAA coaches (where they could focus more on basketball unlike Luka, who had to attend school with less leniency towards athletes), and how much more they still improved in the NBA. And then consider that seniors they were on average at least 3 years older than Dončić, meaning they were much more mature (physically, emotionally, intellectually) during their NCAA years compared to Dončić in Real. EDIT: So they could benefit much more from that tutoring than a very young Luka from his Real coaches.

So yeah, I'm getting tired of people saying that Luka is significantly close to his ceiling.

[Archx]

I like Bagley and he's looked even better than I thought...but kind of funny that he puts up 30/7 and suddenly it's, "Bagley has a higher ceiling than Luka!" Meanwhile on the same day, Luka puts up 28/9/6 and 13 in the 4th, including what would be the go-ahead winner, yet that's supposed to be no big deal (which, in a way, it is since he does it so often...)

I think people have said Bagley has a higher ceiling for quite some time. That’s no slam on Luka who is already a special player. But the fact is Luka already is close to maximizing the spacing he generates on his step backs. How much more space do you think he can generate? Luka is highly highly skilled already at 19. People want to say he’s 19 but their is some limit to the amount of polish you can put on an already polished game.

Wait, what? Did you compare his ceiling to Bagley's based on how much space he generates with his step back?

Did you read the article when Curry's trainer coached him before this season for a short time? He said that Luka hasn't even scratched the surface yet, how can you argue against that?

Oh lol.. above poster beat me to it by a second ... Well i guess we both have a point here

[Ascrilas]

I don't take anyone seriously who thinks Doncic doesn't have the highest ceiling and floor of this class.

That said, I think the Top 5 are all studs. Has there ever been a year where the entire Top 5 became an All-Star? Don't think so. This draft class will go down as one of the best in recent times, if not ever, I hope.

[Texas Chuck]

So yeah, I'm getting tired of people saying that Luka is significantly close to his ceiling.

I mean maybe this is his ceiling or close to it. That would be a huge surprise and disappointment, but he wouldn't be the first player to fall in love with the lifestyle and not continue to work to improve. Doesn't sound like the hyper-competitive Luka Doncic that wins titles and MVPs and gets angry with losses, but sure maybe.

But realize people who suggest he is either have a clear agenda or a bias against Euro(read: not freak athletes because Giannis escapes this) or they are just ignorant in thinking that polished equals finished or that professional experiences means you can't continue to grow.

It's just a position not remotely justifiable on any level. Stop engaging with posters suggesting that. Particularly if they are fans of a team who passed on Luka. Every single one of us is self-deluded in order to protect ourselves. It's a natural defense mechanism many of them aren't self-aware enough to even realize they are doing it.

I honestly hope Bagley and Fox become a modern Stockton/Malone or Nash/Dirk or Nash/Amare. I hope Trae Young is the good Gilbert Arenas or the penniless Steph Curry.

But today? Today there is no evidence whatsoever to justify saying they have higher ceilings. Larry Bird was never an elite athlete in terms of running fast or jumping high. Nor was Nash, Magic, Duncan, Stockton, Dirk, Steph, Harden, etc Of course people define athlete way too narrowly and place far too little stock in the mental components.

Gerald Green was never ever ever going to be more than a role player because his understanding of the game is too limited despite being a great athlete. Same with Zach Lavine. But guys like Danny Green, Joe Ingles, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw all have impacts way beyond their athleticism because they just understand basketball.

Or heck any of us who regularly play pickup know that the 40-something guys at the gym almost always hold the 20-something guys off the court despite giving up size and athleticism because they just understand the game at a higher level.

This Luka is peaking at 19 is one of the stupidest memes in the history of this board.

[Duke4life831]

Not here to talk about the Bagley vs Luka ceiling thing (way too early to know any of that). But did want to give Bagley some props. The dude is still really raw but I think 2 things stand out when I watch him. The elite athleticism, the dude runs the court like a gazelle and he gets up so high and so quick. And also his elite touch around the rim. It just seems like if he gets that shot off in the paint with his left hand, its going in.

The 3pt shot isnt consistent yet, but the form and touch on it looks really good. The dude is super raw but already is a per 36, 20/10 and 1.5 blocks on over 50% from the field player. Obviously you cant just extract that and call him a 20/10 player already. But I dont think its a stretch to say he is that far away from being that kind of player. He has better shooting splits from all the different distances from the court compared to a rookie AD.

The offensive potential with him just smacks you in the face every time you watch him. I also think his defense is a lot better than most thought it would be and while I dont think he will ever be elite on that end, I definitely think he has the potential to be a good-really good defender.

Also on a side note. I dont care what player it is. To say any 19 year old is close to his ceiling just sounds so dumb to me. None of these guys are close to their ceiling.

[Nuntius]

Most 19 years don't have any experience in any level of "professional" ball, so he's not your average youngster.

But to your question - could he improve? It's possible. He at least has a great work ethic that suggests he'd continue to try to improve.

still, there were players (euroleagu mvps) already who played proffesionally in europe and came into league and no one came close to production doncic has in his 1st year at 19. this narrative needs to stop. he isnt doing these things in nba because he played proffesionally in europe. he is doing them because he is incredibly talented and that good.

Exactly. Almost everyone from Europe was a professional for many years before they came in NBA and they’re nothing more than solid players. Rubio was a professional longer than Luka before he came in NBA. The same goes for Saric, Dragic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Satoransky, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cedi Osman, Korkmaz...The difference between them and Luka is not how long they were professionals before NBA, but how talented they were.
And when we’re talking about how long Luka is a professional, I hope that you understand he was going to a school all this years in Europe, like high school boys in USA. And in schools in Europe players don’t have that many privileges like in USA.

Bojan, Bogdan and Satoransky are playing pretty well right now. But yeah, Luka is just a different tier.

[Bob8]

I was comparing how Trae has improved through out the 1st and 2nd half of the season so far. Had nothing to do with Luka or the Mavs.

Yes, but the other one used it for comparison.

yes, because someone else used that same sample size to suggest that Trae was piling up stats for a bottom feeder while Luka was doing it for a much better team. What other sample size am I supposed to use there Bob?

The only poster you should take issue with in this discussion is the guy who made the false claim about the teams' Trae and Luka play for. I merely responded with facts.

Last 27 games is 12/11 in wins for the Hawks. Last 24 games is 11/9 for the Mavs. So it’s very important which period you take. But more important, does either data tell us, what influence have Luka and Trae on their teams winning? Of course not. We have advanced stats for that, but unfortunately they’re not very popular in this thread.

[Buzzard]

If you wanted to show the trend, you should have compared Trae in the start of the season and Trae in last month and not comparing last month of Trae with Luka. And we wouldn’t have had this conversation.

The tend comparison is because this is a ROY discussion; and they are the two players mentioned in this discussion who were swapped for each other. It is not to hurt anyone's feelings; just a ROY discussion.

You didn’t compare a trend but last month of this 2 players using raw and numerical stats, because you don’t trust advanced stats.

I compared last 30 days, not a singled out month, for one group of stats. Then compared the monthly splits for another group of stats. If I could pull last 45 or 60 days for counting stats and percentages, I would have. But Yahoo only goes back to past 30 days or full season.

I will go back 30 days again in a week or two. I do keep up with how Trae is trending; I only recently started sharing the good news here.

[BoogieTime]

So yeah, I'm getting tired of people saying that Luka is significantly close to his ceiling.

I mean maybe this is his ceiling or close to it. That would be a huge surprise and disappointment, but he wouldn't be the first player to fall in love with the lifestyle and not continue to work to improve. Doesn't sound like the hyper-competitive Luka Doncic that wins titles and MVPs and gets angry with losses, but sure maybe.

But realize people who suggest he is either have a clear agenda or a bias against Euro(read: not freak athletes because Giannis escapes this) or they are just ignorant in thinking that polished equals finished or that professional experiences means you can't continue to grow.

It's just a position not remotely justifiable on any level. Stop engaging with posters suggesting that. Particularly if they are fans of a team who passed on Luka. Every single one of us is self-deluded in order to protect ourselves. It's a natural defense mechanism many of them aren't self-aware enough to even realize they are doing it.

I honestly hope Bagley and Fox become a modern Stockton/Malone or Nash/Dirk or Nash/Amare. I hope Trae Young is the good Gilbert Arenas or the penniless Steph Curry.

But today? Today there is no evidence whatsoever to justify saying they have higher ceilings. Larry Bird was never an elite athlete in terms of running fast or jumping high. Nor was Nash, Magic, Duncan, Stockton, Dirk, Steph, Harden, etc Of course people define athlete way too narrowly and place far too little stock in the mental components.

Gerald Green was never ever ever going to be more than a role player because his understanding of the game is too limited despite being a great athlete. Same with Zach Lavine. But guys like Danny Green, Joe Ingles, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw all have impacts way beyond their athleticism because they just understand basketball.

Or heck any of us who regularly play pickup know that the 40-something guys at the gym almost always hold the 20-something guys off the court despite giving up size and athleticism because they just understand the game at a higher level.

This Luka is peaking at 19 is one of the stupidest memes in the history of this board.

Well if your upset about how some view Luka’s ceiling, you’d understand others don’t appreciate your takes on their prospects (Kings possibly viewing Bagley as a bench player/Buddy Hield having more value at the time of his trade). Maybe we should start a poll on whether or not Hield had more value when the Pelicans traded him than Bagley does now (Id love to)? Takes like those make some not appreciate where your coming from, or the prospect that you promote. I’ve personally found some Luka supporters over zealous to the point of not respecting the class.

Bagley is a phenomenal prospect, and I think it’s fair to say he’s more physically gifted and has more room to grow than an unathletic high usage point forward who needs to monopolize the offense. It’s a legit argument that certain prospects have less experience, are more raw, and have higher ceilings in proportion to what they are showing now

As far as Trae/Luka is concerned, Im traditional in i want the ball in the hands of my point guard, who is more apt to break down defense

[Bob8]

The tend comparison is because this is a ROY discussion; and they are the two players mentioned in this discussion who were swapped for each other. It is not to hurt anyone's feelings; just a ROY discussion.

You didn’t compare a trend but last month of this 2 players using raw and numerical stats, because you don’t trust advanced stats.

I compared last 30 days, not a month, for one group of stats. Then compared the monthly splits for another group of stats. If I could pull last 45 or 60 days for counting stats and percentages, I would have. But Yahoo only goes back to past 30 days or full season.

I will go back 30 days again in a week or two. I do keep up with how Trae is trending; I only recently started sharing the good news here.

May I have a suggestion? We should just leave Trae vs. Luka battle aside till the next year. And then start from the beginning, full year stats and see who’s better. No excuses from both sides.

[Bob8]

So yeah, I'm getting tired of people saying that Luka is significantly close to his ceiling.

I mean maybe this is his ceiling or close to it. That would be a huge surprise and disappointment, but he wouldn't be the first player to fall in love with the lifestyle and not continue to work to improve. Doesn't sound like the hyper-competitive Luka Doncic that wins titles and MVPs and gets angry with losses, but sure maybe.

But realize people who suggest he is either have a clear agenda or a bias against Euro(read: not freak athletes because Giannis escapes this) or they are just ignorant in thinking that polished equals finished or that professional experiences means you can't continue to grow.

It's just a position not remotely justifiable on any level. Stop engaging with posters suggesting that. Particularly if they are fans of a team who passed on Luka. Every single one of us is self-deluded in order to protect ourselves. It's a natural defense mechanism many of them aren't self-aware enough to even realize they are doing it.

I honestly hope Bagley and Fox become a modern Stockton/Malone or Nash/Dirk or Nash/Amare. I hope Trae Young is the good Gilbert Arenas or the penniless Steph Curry.

But today? Today there is no evidence whatsoever to justify saying they have higher ceilings. Larry Bird was never an elite athlete in terms of running fast or jumping high. Nor was Nash, Magic, Duncan, Stockton, Dirk, Steph, Harden, etc Of course people define athlete way too narrowly and place far too little stock in the mental components.

Gerald Green was never ever ever going to be more than a role player because his understanding of the game is too limited despite being a great athlete. Same with Zach Lavine. But guys like Danny Green, Joe Ingles, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw all have impacts way beyond their athleticism because they just understand basketball.

Or heck any of us who regularly play pickup know that the 40-something guys at the gym almost always hold the 20-something guys off the court despite giving up size and athleticism because they just understand the game at a higher level.

This Luka is peaking at 19 is one of the stupidest memes in the history of this board.

Well if your upset about how some view Luka’s ceiling, you’d understand others don’t appreciate your takes on their prospects (Kings possibly viewing Bagley as a bench player/Buddy Hield having more value at the time of his trade). Maybe we should start a poll on whether or not Hield had more value when the Pelicans traded him than Bagley does now (Id love to)? Takes like those make some not appreciate where your coming from, or the prospect that you promote. I’ve personally found some Luka supporters over zealous to the point of not respecting the class.

Bagley is a phenomenal prospect, and I think it’s fair to say he’s more physically gifted and has more room to grow than an unathletic high usage point forward who needs to monopolize the offense. It’s a legit argument that certain prospects have less experience, are more raw, and have higher ceilings in proportion to what they are showing now

As far as Trae/Luka is concerned, Im traditional in i want the ball in the hands of my point guard, who is more apt to break down defense

You don’t have higher ceiling just because you’re raw and more athletic. What about skills? Bagley might be more far away from his ceiling, he will probably improve more, but that doesn’t mean he will ever catch Luka, who is classes away from him at the moment. And what this ceiling is really anyway? Vivid imagination how your player will look someday? Your imagination is new Giannis and mine 6’8”, 230 combination of Bird, Magic, Harden and Curry. Whose ceiling/vivid imagination is better player? Saying that one player has higher ceiling because he’s more athletic is total nonsense. I admit though, that all this ceiling talk is nonsense per se. It’s like playing poker with empty cards and just making up what you have in the hand.

[King Ken]

So yeah, I'm getting tired of people saying that Luka is significantly close to his ceiling.

I mean maybe this is his ceiling or close to it. That would be a huge surprise and disappointment, but he wouldn't be the first player to fall in love with the lifestyle and not continue to work to improve. Doesn't sound like the hyper-competitive Luka Doncic that wins titles and MVPs and gets angry with losses, but sure maybe.

But realize people who suggest he is either have a clear agenda or a bias against Euro(read: not freak athletes because Giannis escapes this) or they are just ignorant in thinking that polished equals finished or that professional experiences means you can't continue to grow.

It's just a position not remotely justifiable on any level. Stop engaging with posters suggesting that. Particularly if they are fans of a team who passed on Luka. Every single one of us is self-deluded in order to protect ourselves. It's a natural defense mechanism many of them aren't self-aware enough to even realize they are doing it.

I honestly hope Bagley and Fox become a modern Stockton/Malone or Nash/Dirk or Nash/Amare. I hope Trae Young is the good Gilbert Arenas or the penniless Steph Curry.

But today? Today there is no evidence whatsoever to justify saying they have higher ceilings. Larry Bird was never an elite athlete in terms of running fast or jumping high. Nor was Nash, Magic, Duncan, Stockton, Dirk, Steph, Harden, etc Of course people define athlete way too narrowly and place far too little stock in the mental components.

Gerald Green was never ever ever going to be more than a role player because his understanding of the game is too limited despite being a great athlete. Same with Zach Lavine. But guys like Danny Green, Joe Ingles, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw all have impacts way beyond their athleticism because they just understand basketball.

Or heck any of us who regularly play pickup know that the 40-something guys at the gym almost always hold the 20-something guys off the court despite giving up size and athleticism because they just understand the game at a higher level.

This Luka is peaking at 19 is one of the stupidest memes in the history of this board.

You can't help yourself, always dogging out Trae and thinking just because you are a mod, it's okay. You free to give your hot takes but Gilbert Arenas or a penniless Steph is just meh posting that we wouldn't be okay with from regular posters. If I said Luka was a rich mans Tyreke Evans and dollar general verison of Larry Bird. You would find it offensive. Please give all players the same respect sir.

You are fine to give a hot take, Trae defense, Luka defense, Luka IQ, Bagley advanced stats, Luka scoring, Luka speed but stop with the penniless ****. That's disrespectful!

[Texas Chuck]

don’t appreciate your takes on their prospects (Kings possibly viewing Bagley as a bench player/Buddy Hield having more value at the time of his trade).

I love how you've sunk your teeth so deeply into that post of mine. I didn't know my views carried that much weight. At the time I posted that he was a bench player and depending on development combined with what the Kings seem to have been looking for at the 4/5--defense and shooting, it wasn't that outrageous a take.

I stand by my belief that Hield is more valuable than Bagley btw. @ me all you want. This league values wings who can shoot way more than it values offensive bigs. You can not like how this impacts my perception of Hield and Bagley, but none of that changes that reality. Maybe Bagley shows he can defend, but if he doesn't it's not me saying his ceiling and value are capped, it's reality that is going to say that.

I hope all the kids pan out. I've actively rooted against exactly 3 players in my life: Kobe, Wade, and Rose. I did hope for like a decade that Timmy would get old and retire, but that was just me wasting my time. I want all players to succeed.

But offense only bigs don't have the value they once did unless they are absolutely elite--talking Shaq/Dirk levels-- and Kings fans should know this better than most considering the Boogie era--and he was a far better defender than Bagley is. But the Kings weren't ever going to get where they wanted building around Boogie and they won't building around Bagley either. He needs to be supporting Fox and the wings, not supplanting them.