eminence wrote:+4 sounds well too high for Giannis's O to me. The Bucks are like a +3 offense and his 2-5 are all rock solid, with Bud running the show. I'd say his offense is still a very notable step behind his defense. Say +2/+3 O/D split for +5ish overall (my scale doesn't usually go quite as high as others, topping out at +7).
I'm in the same boat as you here - not sure precisely what scale I'd use, but I'm a bit lower on his offence than most others. My reservations stem from the fact that he's an absolutely elite interior finisher/driver (GOAT level at this) and a pretty good passer, but:
a) He's fairly turnover prone at almost 4 per game - this is probably a consequence of his scoring style (for example, he's at 0.6 travels per game, which leads the league by quite a bit, and he also leads the league in offensive fouls) as his passing style tends to feed perimeter players rather than interior scorers. These passes are empirically less likely to generate turnovers (but also less likely to generate gilt-edged scoring opportunities), so I'd say that as impressive as his scoring is, it's probably less efficient at first glance than we'd think because of the turnovers that he generates in the process. This isn't a huge problem, but it's something to consider when looking at the scoring efficiency of players.
b) On the topic of his passing, under a third of his passes are to the "interior" so even though he's a solid passer with solid assist counts, his passing isn't generating as many elite opportunities as the average higher volume assist player in the league. The four players that play with Giannis the most all drop in TS% when he's on the court - Bledsoe (-10.2%), Brogdon (-2.9%), Middleton (-5.5%) and Lopez (-0.6%). I also feel that Giannis being interior-dominant as a finisher, but not being an elite interior passer means that most players are taking less "at the rim" shots and draw less fouls when he's on the court with them, and the data from pbpstats that I've checked seems to correlate with this. This isn't a new phenomenon - I've thought this for a few years and the data has always seemed to resonate with me whenever I've checked.
c) He's an interior scorer who also doesn't grab that many offensive boards himself, and that could be contributing to Milwaukee's poor offensive rebound numbers.
He's still a good offensive player, but I'm less impressed with his offence than I am with his defence (which I'm pretty high on, and I think he's a legitimate contender for DPOY runner up after Gobert). He's a worthy choice for MVP, but I don't consider his MVP candidacy an historical outlier level candidacy.
