All Things Vladdy: Debuting Friday the 26th

[dorkestra]

His dad was one of my favorite ever players. Excited to see the next edition.

[johanliebert]

Getting to the Majors at a young age like he will next season likely, means his contract clock will also start early. Meaning he will be VERY VERY expensive as he enters his Prime. Considering how much guys like Harper and Machado are rumored to be priced at soon, it could be very expensive for the Jays

Can the Jays or will they afford say a $400 million contract. If it comes down to that?

I doubt he signs a cheaper guaranteed money deal like Trout. That guy lost a lot of money doing so.

Why are you worried about Rogers. We all know they won’t spend that money.

I can’t beleive fans are speaking about his service time Rogers just needs to penny up. I doubt the Red Sox would have him down there.

[Lukeem]

What is the point of trying to develop a superstar if you’re worried about having to pay him someday

This is so stupid if he’s ready play him

[Schad]

We have two choices with Vlad:

- we can have him in the majors for a couple weeks in April of this year, or;
- we can have him for the whole of the 2026 season.

So long as baseball's rules remain what they are, this is an absolute no-brainer.

[wamco]

Bingo.

[SharoneWright]

The title did always seem a little bit off, LOL. Edited for spelling.

[phillipmike]

We have two choices with Vlad:

- we can have him in the majors for a couple weeks in April of this year, or;
- we can have him for the whole of the 2026 season.

So long as baseball's rules remain what they are, this is an absolute no-brainer.

Exactly, what do you prefer...

Under 1 WAR in for 2-3 weeks April of 2019 on a non playoff team vs. potentially 3-7 WAR in 2026 for a full season when you project to be in contention or can use as trade bait.

AGAIN under 1 WAR for 3 weeks or 3-7 WAR for a full season?

Anyone that questions this logic is... nvm i wont even go there.

[wamco]

I fail to see how it’s even debatable really.

[EJaggit]

We have two choices with Vlad:

- we can have him in the majors for a couple weeks in April of this year, or;
- we can have him for the whole of the 2026 season.

So long as baseball's rules remain what they are, this is an absolute no-brainer.

This is a sad question... But how does control time work with MLB? I understand if we don't call him up we have more control but how long do these years of control last? Is there a link for me to maybe understand MLB call up/ service time better?

[SharoneWright]

I'm with McCown. I think we bring him up May 1 and immediately sign him to an 8 year/150 million dollar extension.

[phillipmike]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/21/top-100-mlb-players-2019-bryce-harper-manny-machado-mike-trout

Vlad is the only Jay to make the list at 100.

Like winter or Gabbo, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming. When he arrives, he’s poised to deliver some serious thunder. Consider what he accomplished at Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo last year at 19 years old: .402/.449/.671 at the former, .336/.414/.564 at the latter, and just one fewer walk than strikeouts combined. And he was doing this against pitchers anywhere from five to 10 years his senior. The son of a Hall of Famer who was one of the best natural hitters of his era, Vladito promises to be a special player immediately, even if he should have debuted last year. — Jon Tayler

The Big Number: 2 | Only two hitters in the 21st century have gotten 500 or more plate appearances in their age-20 season and put up an OPS+ of 125 or better: Jason Heyward and Mike Trout. Bet on Vlad Jr. becoming the third.

[phillipmike]

I'm with McCown. I think we bring him up May 1 and immediately sign him to an 8 year/150 million dollar extension.

We basically have Vladdy on a series of seven 1-year contracts at pre-arb for 3 seasons and 4 arb years (likely to be super 2).

Lets Say Vladdy breaks all Arb records and the Jays offer him 2M in his last pre-arb year like the Angels gave Trout (1M);

I looked at the record for each time around and added roughly 4-5M+ to account for inflation and the best case that Vladdy is better than guys like Trout and Betts.

2019: 600,000
2020: 600,000
2021: 2,000,000
2022: 15,000,000 (arb 1)
2023: 25,000,000 (arb 2)
2024: 30,000,000 (arb 3)
2025: 35,000,000 (arb 4)
Total: 108.2M

Keeping in mind the record for arb 4 is currently 26M by Arenado (i gave Vladdy a 9M bump to be generous).

So best case for Vladdy and the Jays is that he is making 110M in arb (number likely to be closer to 100M or well below if Vladdy isnt as good as Trout or Betts). Unless Vladdy gives me at least 2 FA years (i might even insist on 3-4 FA deals) i dont see the need to guarantee him 150M for 1 extra year (on a 8 year deal) when you have him for the next 7 years at no long term financial risk as he is on a series of non guaranteed 1 year deals.

[Schad]

8 years, $150m would presumably only cover from 2020 on, so his high-end arb estimate + two FA years would would be closer to $180m, but the point stands: I'd be willing to pay quite generously from day one to buy out a couple FA years, but that's a bit too generous. 8 years, $100m or 9 years, $130m? Sure.

[SharoneWright]

Thanks guys. Obviously I didn't break it down at that level. Just was in support of the principle. Anything under 20M per year for Vlad will quickly (probably) look pretty good. I'm just generally supportive of betting early on a player I believed in, to save money and/or gain years on the back end. Kind of how the Leafs should have signed both Matthews and Marner longterm last summer. It's a risk, but when have the Jays (or Leafs) ever had such top level prospect in the past 25 years? Never? Obviously baseball's prolonged arbitration system mitigates the risk of a player's long term deal going up 25-40% based on a single rookie or sophomore season's performance, but if there's ever a time to make a value-bet, this is it.

[phillipmike]

Thanks guys. Obviously I didn't break it down at that level. Just was in support of the principle. Anything under 20M per year for Vlad will quickly (probably) look pretty good. I'm just generally supportive of betting early on a player I believed in, to save money and/or gain years on the back end. Kind of how the Leafs should have signed both Matthews and Marner longterm last summer. It's a risk, but when have the Jays (or Leafs) ever had such top level prospect in the past 25 years? Never? Obviously baseball's prolonged arbitration system mitigates the risk of a player's long term deal going up 25-40% based on a single rookie or sophomore season's performance, but if there's ever a time to make a value-bet, this is it.

Dont get me started on this. Last off-season was the perfect time to sign Matthews and Marner.

[Wo1verine]

Thanks guys. Obviously I didn't break it down at that level. Just was in support of the principle. Anything under 20M per year for Vlad will quickly (probably) look pretty good. I'm just generally supportive of betting early on a player I believed in, to save money and/or gain years on the back end. Kind of how the Leafs should have signed both Matthews and Marner longterm last summer. It's a risk, but when have the Jays (or Leafs) ever had such top level prospect in the past 25 years? Never? Obviously baseball's prolonged arbitration system mitigates the risk of a player's long term deal going up 25-40% based on a single rookie or sophomore season's performance, but if there's ever a time to make a value-bet, this is it.

Dont get me started on this. Last off-season was the perfect time to sign Matthews and Marner.

Just be thankful you'll be able to sign your players ....
In Ottawa ... Karlsson, Hoffman, Methot, Brassard, Stone, Duchene, Dzingel and top 4 draft choice ( fans luck Hughes) all traded in 2 years time.

[Black Watch]

Hitting homeruns off a motherfrrrucking tee, y'all:

Watch on YouTube

[SharoneWright]

Man oh man, it took 1 winter at age19 for Vlad to get fat. He really swelled. Weight will be his biggest MLB battle.

[BigLeagueChew]

Hitting homeruns off a motherfrrrucking tee, y'all:

Watch on YouTube

#plakata

whats so hard about hitting off a tee?!

[Schad]

whats so hard about hitting off a tee?!

When hitting a pitched ball, a large part of the exit velocity is generated by the pitch itself. When hitting a ball off a tee, you're generating all of it.