Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[pinkman7382]

I'm pretty sure this season will be Ernie's last. I don't see how he can survive these last 3-4 years of obvious & colossal incompetence.

Yeah, there's a good chance EG "retires" this year to "spend more time with his family".

Rumor or guess?

[pinkman7382]

Yeah, there's a good chance EG "retires" this year to "spend more time with his family".

Realistically I think Ted will want to look within the Wizards organization for a potential GM candidate. One person I think could become the next GM who is within the Wizards organization is Tommy Sheppard. He seems far more knowledgeable as a GM than EG which isn't saying much. He has been the Senior Vice President of Basketball Operations for the last 15 years.

His "role in Washington includes responsibilities with salary cap management, negotiations, draft preparation and talent evaluation of collegiate athletes and professionals, both domestically and abroad. Additional responsibilities of Sheppard’s include an assisting role in the recruitment and evaluation of free agents, statistical evaluation of NBA players, the hiring of coaches and personnel, and monitoring the Wizards’ efforts in the NBA’s Player Programs. Sheppard is also specifically tasked with organizing the Wizards’ training camp and preseason schedules, overseeing the athletic training, strength training, video, technology and equipment areas for the team, and directing in-arena renovations to areas including the Wizards locker room, players lounge, family lounge and front offices."

If anyone is set to replace Ernie Grunfeld in the near future, it most likely will be Tommy Sheppard.

Interview from Lithuania 2 days ago (makes you wonder why he is there):

Watch on YouTube

TheSecretKevin WizKev Kevin Broom likes and respects Tommy Sheppard. I get the sense some of the occasionally good scouting done by the team was influenced by Sheppard. As much as we complain about front office personnel then we also complain when they don't play enough the guys we like, or trade them away. I wouldn't be excited about his ascension, but I wouldn't hate it either.

I'm sure he's a smart guy but I want the Wizards to look outside the organization. David Griffin would be solid

[nate33]

I'm pretty sure this season will be Ernie's last. I don't see how he can survive these last 3-4 years of obvious & colossal incompetence.

Yeah, there's a good chance EG "retires" this year to "spend more time with his family".

Rumor or guess?

Guess

[pcbothwel]

Here's a ridiculous, but plausible scenario. I got it from an ESPN article predicting free agent moves, and the Wizards were "also mentioned" as a potential destination for Cousins, though they weren't a top 4 prediction.

First, we assume Howard opts out and Mahinmi is stretched. That results in the following payroll:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
7 minimum salary roster spots - $6.2M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $84.9M
CAP SPACE: $25.1M

Wall and Beal somehow convince Cousins to come here on a 2+1 deal starting at $25.1M.
Jeff Green is resigned for the vet minimum.
Satoransky is resigned for the the Room Minimum for 1 year at $4.5M (with a wink-wink deal that he'll be resigned for more money next year using Bird Rights).
Thomas Bryant is resigned using Early Bird Rights.
Dekker is resigned for the vet minimum
We draft Dat2U's favorite: De'Andre Hunter

Lineup:

Sato/Randle
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Brown
Green/Dekker
Cousins/Bryant

Maybe we also convince one of Ariza or Wesley Johnson to stick around for the vet minimum. If Wall comes back healthy, that's a good team. Or at least it will be a good team on paper. (I'm not too sure if Cousins is a winning player, but it's worth a shot.) It would look really good if we end up with the #2 or #3 pick and land Barrett.

Huh?... Cousins is about to turn 29 and is clearly a step slow. We can keep Sato on his cap hold (6M) and still have 16M in cap space.
Nothing about a 29 y/o Center coming off an Achilles tear with a TS of 53% says "20M per year".

We can offer him 3/50M and there is ZERO reason to offer more. Vucevic and Favors will both be a year younger and healthier...so his market will be limited by them as well.

I just assume we use the MLE instead of the additional amount gained from the cap space.

[Dat2U]

Here's a ridiculous, but plausible scenario. I got it from an ESPN article predicting free agent moves, and the Wizards were "also mentioned" as a potential destination for Cousins, though they weren't a top 4 prediction.

First, we assume Howard opts out and Mahinmi is stretched. That results in the following payroll:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
7 minimum salary roster spots - $6.2M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $84.9M
CAP SPACE: $25.1M

Wall and Beal somehow convince Cousins to come here on a 2+1 deal starting at $25.1M.
Jeff Green is resigned for the vet minimum.
Satoransky is resigned for the the Room Minimum for 1 year at $4.5M (with a wink-wink deal that he'll be resigned for more money next year using Bird Rights).
Thomas Bryant is resigned using Early Bird Rights.
Dekker is resigned for the vet minimum
We draft Dat2U's favorite: De'Andre Hunter

Lineup:

Sato/Randle
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Brown
Green/Dekker
Cousins/Bryant

Maybe we also convince one of Ariza or Wesley Johnson to stick around for the vet minimum. If Wall comes back healthy, that's a good team. Or at least it will be a good team on paper. (I'm not too sure if Cousins is a winning player, but it's worth a shot.) It would look really good if we end up with the #2 or #3 pick and land Barrett.

Huh?... Cousins is about to turn 29 and is clearly a step slow. We can keep Sato on his cap hold (6M) and still have 16M in cap space.
Nothing about a 29 y/o Center coming off an Achilles tear with a TS of 53% says "20M per year".

We can offer him 3/50M and there is ZERO reason to offer more. Vucevic and Favors will both be a year younger and healthier...so his market will be limited by them as well.

I just assume we use the MLE instead of the additional amount gained from the cap space.

The only reason I would be interested in signing Cousins is so Wall & Cousins can be called in the "Bad Achillies Boyz" when Wall returns to the court.

[nate33]

I just assume we use the MLE instead of the additional amount gained from the cap space.

If we can sign Cousins for just the MLE, then I'm all for it. But if he costs more than that, the only way to get there is to renounce all of our exceptions, create cap space, and sign Cousins with the cap space.

Good point on there being other good centers on the market. Maybe Cousins does indeed cost considerably less.

[payitforward]

Yeah, there's a good chance EG "retires" this year....

Realistically I think Ted will want to look within the Wizards organization for a potential GM candidate. One person ... is Tommy Sheppard. ...If anyone is set to replace Ernie Grunfeld in the near future, it most likely will be Tommy Sheppard.

Interview from Lithuania 2 days ago (makes you wonder why he is there)...

Not for the weather!

Shephard comes off as a very different kind of person than Ernie, that's for sure.... But, he's tarred w/ Ernie's brush as far as I'm concerned.

He's a key person in an extremely unsuccessful, quite inept Front Office. They need to clean house in that outfit; no one with any connection to the current mess -- which has nothing to do w/ bad luck or injuries & everything to do with incompetence -- deserves a promotion at this point.

Wish him the best... somewhere else.

[payitforward]

I don't want Cousins at any price. Not b/c he's been a bad player -- or even b/c of some dispute about just how good he really is at his best -- but just because we need to rebuild not tinker. To me at least, age & injury leave him with no role in that rebuild.

I can't see Nate's lineup of...

Sato/Randle
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Brown
Green/Dekker
Cousins/Bryant

It's this year's lineup plus one rookie & a veteran question mark coming off a serious injury.

If we are going to add veterans, they need to be 1) healthy, 2) not as old as Green/Ariza, & 3) cheap. If they're front court players, they need to be strong rebounders.

[Dat2U]

Ok so I'm going over the 3 scenarios that can happen with our lottery pick:

1. We don't move up. The most likely scenario. We'd probably draft between the 7-9 pick range (based on the standings now).

I would prefer SF De'Andre Hunter. He projects as a draft and immediately start SF that can impact the defensive side of the ball right away. Has Kawhi-like abilities defensively. Efficient offensively but not a shot creator yet. Has a high b-ball IQ. I see him as a better & bigger version of Mikail Bridges.

2. We jump up and land in the 2-4 range.

There's actually a decent chance of this happening. As of now, my order is:

2. R.J. Barrett
3. Ja Morant
4. Darius Garland
5. Cameron Reddish
6. De'Andre Hunter

R.J. has his warts but he's multi-skilled, incredibly versatile and very productive. He's also finding his 3pt touch which will be crucial to his success. Fearless. Will grab boards, can distribute. Alot to like.

Ja is the closest thing to John Wall I've seen in a prospect, even moreso then De'Aaron Fox - in both the good and bad aspects. Will be one of the best athletes at the position coming in. Can play wild and out of control. Excellent court vision. Excellent feel, is a natural scoring PG. Jumper is a little better than Wall's but streaky. Gets real sloppy like Wall too. Has a casual and too cool for school flair about him. I like him more if he goes to a strong hard nosed coach that will demand the best from him.

Darius Garland fits today's mold as a scoring PG. A high skill level. Can shoot from anywhere. Can dribble the ball on a string. I thing he would have been a lock top 5 pick if not for his injury. Reminds me of Lillard.

I cut Cameron Reddish some slack for having to play with two alpha's like Zion and R.J. The opportunity just isn't going to be there to showcase his ball skills as he's forced to become basically a 3 & D guy as the 3rd wheel on most nights. When either Zion or R.J. has been out, his production and activity level spikes. The talent is there. I wonder if he's as good a shooter as claimed to be but he has top 5 talent.

3. We hit the jackpot and find the promised land of Zion.

This throws any rebuild out the window. Zion may be more impactful defensively than offensively and immediately makes us a playoff team with Beal. The question is what do you do next? Stick with Beal & Zion and hope Wall gets healthy? Trade Beal, Brown & every conceivable pick for AD and Holiday and go all in? Trade Beal for R.J. Barrett + others and go for the long term glory?

[doclinkin]

Suck to get lucky. Or Build a Good Team. I feel like those are the choices in looking towards the future. Ted's 10 Point Plan, Sam Hinkie's 'Process' are both suck luck methods.

Vs a team like San Antonio who is always in the running, always has a good team, but without landing the next Big Timmy are never real contenders for a chip.

The draft order lotto reset adds some disincentive for the Suck2Luck method. Which means maybe it is time for us to lay out a plan of incremental improvement, and to get solid team with a unifying vision of how to get there and what that means.

My theory is that Ernie has stuck around for so long in part because of adherence to an unstated philosophy that is the shadow of that 10 pt plan. I think his teams are designed for a Boom/Bust result. He commonly builds a team that wins with its starters and has zero bench behind them. OR he loads up on a single position, so redundancy does not help us if the team falters in the other key positions. Consider that we have never had quality back-ups or competition at our star positions. Until Saty developed overseas we had the dumpster scrapings at PG. SInce landing Beal we have had nobody at back up 2 guard. And when we did have cap room to incrementally improve our team and build it into a solid squad, too good for lotto but not a real contender against LeBron, we instead spent ALL of our excess cash on back up nobodies at the center position (Mahinmi, Smith, Nicholson all at once). I think the point is we are supposed to win or fail and get lucky. Because year after year it has been proven the teams that win are the ones with the right superstar on court. Or now in the era of super teams, sometimes it's the right chemistry among multiple superstars. LeBron or team of stars. Sometimes both.

Problem is, in sucking lucky, odds are, we fail. Year after year. Odds are everyone does. While we stockpiled and kept high draft picks we were never lucky enough to suck into the game-changing keystone player in the right year. And to keep those high picks proved unaffordable long term. Seems like everyone has tired of that game. The roller coaster of streaks and failures based on over-playing injured stars, and hoping to get lucky. Maybe its time to recognize the probability that luck is not on your side, for any team, that even the Process that landed a squad multiple picks year after year has not resulted in a championship. Yes we want a chip, but is there a way to build instead a solid squad that is fun to watch, that gives good effort, and instead of trying to outsuck the sucky, we look for inefficiencies in the game and actually build a scouting department that is good at outguessing opponents later in the draft to land a Giannis or the like even with a later pick.

As a fan base are we willing to cheer for a team that may not win a championship if year after year they were able to give us Spurs level success? Effort. Good attitude. Smart play. Even if other hypertalents would transcend and beat us. Because a few of us on here could lay out a plan that would build a good team. Ideas on how to maximize efficiencies in our favor. Build a solid squad from bench to starters, even given a shortfall in cap while we survive the wreckage of 9 or so points of that Plan. I have ideas on how to do that, to build a hellofa Good team, but even in that I know the truth of the adage "Good is the enemy of Great".

I'd like to see peoples plans for both: how do we build a good team.
-Vs-
How do we build a champion contender.

I'd say building a good team is the way to go. Either way, you need people who know what they're doing.

Several posters, especially Dat2U and nate33, regularly lay out plausible plans that seem to make a lot more sense than what they've been doing.

Chuckling at how you're squinting your eyes in order to impute a conscious strategy onto Ernie's actions that probably doesn't exist.

I've followed GMEG since I was a Knicks fan during the Patrick Ewing era. How he builds a team changed when Ted was in charge. He has always distrusted the draft and valued veterans. If a pick has to be made he prefers to swing for the fences and select raw players who have unmatched athletic ability rather than ones with more finished skills. But with the Knicks he often had redundancy on the bench, and liked competition between starters and back-ups, lining up the replacement for a guy while a player in front of him was starting. He would have an Oakley backed up by Anthony Mason. A series of solid point guards from Mark Jackson to Doc Rivers to Greg Anthony.

In multiple interviews Ted has said there is a plan. In multiple interviews Ted has said Ernie is following the plan. Even after year after year of leaning on the injury excuse and overplaying our starters heavy minutes. Ted's 10 point plan makes it clear he expects the only way to improve in the league is to get lucky in the draft process:

3. Once you decide to rebuild--bring the house down to the foundation--be consistent with your plan--and with your asks--we always sought to get "a pick and a prospect" in all of our trades. We believed that volume would yield better results than precision. We decided to trade multiple stars at their prime or peak to get a large volume of young players. Young players will get better as they age, so you have built in upside. Youngsters push vets to play better to keep their jobs, and they stay healthier, and they are more fun--less jaded by pro sports.

4. Commit to building around the draft. Invest in scouting, development, and a system. Articulate that system and stay with it so that all players feel comfortable-- know the language-- know what is expected of them-- read the Oriole Way*. It worked and it is a great tutorial. Draft players that fit the system, not the best player. Draft the best player for the system. Don't deviate or get seduced by agents, media demands, or by just stats or hype. Envision how this player will slide into your system.

I agree with the theory that Ted has had a hand in personnel decisions. And that he tends to listen to his stars, and asks Ernie to do what they suggest, so John Wall acts as de facto auxiliary GM. I think Ernie is lazy in free agency and lacks foresight and vision for building a team and I think he is reactive in GMing, tends to focus and go in a frenzy of activity early in the free agency to get it over with, or when his job is on the line. But I do think there is an outline of a plan there. In keeping Ernie Ted makes it clear every time that they are following a plan. They seem to think they are following some blueprint. Maybe so, but if so they have just been deluded in their internal evaluation, not just of players but from the coach on up to the owner.

[payitforward]

...In multiple interviews Ted has said there is a plan. In multiple interviews Ted has said Ernie is following the plan.

...we always sought to get "a pick and a prospect" in all of our trades. ...volume would yield better results than precision. ...trade multiple stars at their prime or peak to get a large volume of young players.

What? I can't think of a single example of this way of working any time after late in Wall's rookie season. & certainly not in the last 6+ years!

Trade young players for Nene.
Trade cap space for veterans (Okafor / Ariza)
Try to rely on old vets like Rasual Butler, Martell Webster, Andre Miller, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden, Paul Pierce, Ramon Sessions, Kris Humphries, Dejuan Blair (prematurely old), etc.
Other than Wall, let 6 of the first 7 draft picks you make as an owner leave without getting any return of any kind for them!
Keep the next 2 draft picks, yay! (Beal & Sato).
Turn your next 12 draft picks (mid-late R2 in 2012, #3 in 2013 plus 2 R2 picks that year, 2014 picks in both rounds, 2015 picks in both rounds, 2016 picks in both rounds, 2017 picks in both rounds) into nothing at all: zero.
(Clear so far, right? That's 3 guys for the team out of 19 draft picks)
Make your R1 pick in 2018 plus a way speculative far off R2 pick that year (something at least!) while trading away your next 4 R2 picks for... literally nothing (either to hide a mistake or for someone who you ditch or who is expiring).

Okay, that's 4 guys (plus maybe Sanon -- & the invaluable rights to Aaron White) out of 25 picks. & this is what we are to call "following the plan?" As in:

Commit to building around the draft. Invest in scouting, development, and a system. ...Don't deviate...

[doclinkin]

...In multiple interviews Ted has said there is a plan. In multiple interviews Ted has said Ernie is following the plan.

...we always sought to get "a pick and a prospect" in all of our trades. ...volume would yield better results than precision. ...trade multiple stars at their prime or peak to get a large volume of young players.

What? I can't think of a single example of this way of working any time after late in Wall's rookie season. & certainly not in the last 6+ years!

Trade young players for Nene.
Trade cap space for veterans (Okafor / Ariza)
Try to rely on old vets like Rasual Butler, Martell Webster, Andre Miller, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden, Paul Pierce, Ramon Sessions, Kris Humphries, Dejuan Blair (prematurely old), etc.
Other than Wall, let 6 of the first 7 draft picks you make as an owner leave without getting any return of any kind for them!
Keep the next 2 draft picks, yay! (Beal & Sato).
Turn your next 12 draft picks (mid-late R2 in 2012, #3 in 2013 plus 2 R2 picks that year, 2014 picks in both rounds, 2015 picks in both rounds, 2016 picks in both rounds, 2017 picks in both rounds) into nothing at all: zero.
(Clear so far, right? That's 3 guys for the team out of 19 draft picks)
Make your R1 pick in 2018 plus a way speculative far off R2 pick that year (something at least!) while trading away your next 4 R2 picks for... literally nothing (either to hide a mistake or for someone who you ditch or who is expiring).

Okay, that's 4 guys (plus maybe Sanon -- & the invaluable rights to Aaron White) out of 25 picks. & this is what we are to call "following the plan?" As in:

Commit to building around the draft. Invest in scouting, development, and a system. ...Don't deviate...

Right but the rest of the plan talks about how once you have sucked into a few high draft picks then you build around them with short term veterans.

Pretty much every part of the supposed plan has been violated at some point. But Ted claims that Ernie is doing what he has asked him to. Meeting his benchmarks. Commonly in years past we have had solid numbers relative to the rest of the league when our starters are healthy, and then a bench of dumpster juice. That led us to a few years of good draft picks. It also led to desperate coaches overplaying our starters into injury. I'm not saying it is a good plan, Im saying I think Ted is complicit.

[queridiculo]

I'm not saying it is a good plan, Im saying I think Ted is complicit.

At this point complicit is putting it mildly.

Ernie is who he's always been, Leonsis owns ALL of it now.

The 2016 offseason should have been the final straw.

With every DNP Mahinmi collects there should be a needle in the Ernie voodoo doll, instead we get Leonsis doling out top secret contract extensions.

[payitforward]

I'm not saying it is a good plan, Im saying I think Ted is complicit.

At this point complicit is putting it mildly.

Ernie is who he's always been, Leonsis owns ALL of it now.

The 2016 offseason should have been the final straw.

With every DNP Mahinmi collects there should be a needle in the Ernie voodoo doll, instead we get Leonsis doling out top secret contract extensions.

Yes, that nails it.

As to "the plan," every plan is a good plan until it doesn't work, & none of them work. To stay with Ted for a minute, did AOL have a "strategy" in place to buy Time Warner? No. Steve Case saw an opportunity to turn the inflated value of his stock into real assets & went for it (note that Ted had nothing to do w/ this incredible deal as far as I am aware). Screw "strategy," there is no such thing. & screw "the plan" too....

[dckingsfan]

Ok so I'm going over the 3 scenarios that can happen with our lottery pick:

Question - we can pick 4th now? Assume that was a change with the revised draft - I totally missed that.

In the second scenario, you would take Barrett over Morant? Not questioning you - just would like your insight.

And if we get Zion, a couple of things would happen.
1) Dwight would opt in
2) It would become much easier to sign FAs
3) EG then really would be the GM for life

[DCZards]

Ok so I'm going over the 3 scenarios that can happen with our lottery pick:

Question - we can pick 4th now? Assume that was a change with the revised draft - I totally missed that.

In the second scenario, you would take Barrett over Morant? Not questioning you - just would like your insight.

And if we get Zion, a couple of things would happen.
1) Dwight would opt in
2) It would become much easier to sign FAs
3) EG then really would be the GM for life

We won’t know until mid-May who wins the Zion sweepstakes. Hopefully, EG will be replaced before then.

[nate33]

Ok so I'm going over the 3 scenarios that can happen with our lottery pick:

Question - we can pick 4th now? Assume that was a change with the revised draft - I totally missed that.

In the second scenario, you would take Barrett over Morant? Not questioning you - just would like your insight.

I'd take Barrett over Morant too.

Reason #1 is that we still have John Wall on the roster and Wall and Morant can't play together. While Wall is out, the combined playmaking of Sato, Beal and Barrett will compensate for the lack of a pure PG. And when Wall gets back, there is still plenty minutes for those 4 guys (plus Brown) at the PG, SG and SF spots.

Reason #2 is that bigger is better. In the NBA, you still need a ton of dudes who can switch defensively 1 through 4. Barrett can do that. Morant can't.

[nate33]

Here's a ridiculous, but plausible scenario. I got it from an ESPN article predicting free agent moves, and the Wizards were "also mentioned" as a potential destination for Cousins, though they weren't a top 4 prediction.

First, we assume Howard opts out and Mahinmi is stretched. That results in the following payroll:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
7 minimum salary roster spots - $6.2M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $84.9M
CAP SPACE: $25.1M

The same scenario as above, but instead of going after Cousins, what if we went after Tobias Harris? Imagine landing Harris for $25M a year while also getting lucky enough to draft Barrett. Resign Sato with the Room Exception, plus Green and Dekker for the vet minimum. Add in a random vet-minimum free agent center like Kyle O'Quinn:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown
SF Barrett/Dekker
PF Harris/Green
C Bryant/O'Quinn

We would just need a coach who could teach defense. And for Brown and Dekker to learn to shoot 3's.

[dckingsfan]

Ok so I'm going over the 3 scenarios that can happen with our lottery pick:

Question - we can pick 4th now? Assume that was a change with the revised draft - I totally missed that.

In the second scenario, you would take Barrett over Morant? Not questioning you - just would like your insight.

I'd take Barrett over Morant too.

Reason #1 is that we still have John Wall on the roster and Wall and Morant can't play together. While Wall is out, the combined playmaking of Sato, Beal and Barrett will compensate for the lack of a pure PG. And when Wall gets back, there is still plenty minutes for those 4 guys (plus Brown) at the PG, SG and SF spots.

Reason #2 is that bigger is better. In the NBA, you still need a ton of dudes who can switch defensively 1 through 4. Barrett can do that. Morant can't.

Ah, defense...

[Shoe]

It would be a mistake to trade Beal. In today’s NBA you need 2 (probably 3) top 25 players to compete for a title. Trading a top 25 player like Beal with the hope of eventually securing 2-3 other top 25 players is a huge gamble.

Beal is young and continues to get better. He has yet to reach his peak, imo. He’s a high-character, high-work ethic guy who plays hard all the time and seems to have fun playing the game. BB is also growing in his role as a team leader. That’s the kind of person you want to be the face of your franchise.

If Beal wants to stay in DC and is committed to doing that, I think the Zards would be wise to build around him.

To me, this is a clear case of “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

The math doesnt add up. You have Wall under contract for the next 4 years with the super max. Beal is due an extension and wants the max. How do you put a team around Beal that can actually do something?

You can't. How do you suppose the Wizards acquire the one to two other stars they need? Draft? It isn't going to be through free agency.

The future is real predictable. We'll max Beal out, be stuck on a one way train to nowhere and will end dealing him for pennies on the dollar once he's got his extension and demands a trade.

So what's the rosy scenario for a Beal led team where the second best player is either Thomas Bryant or Tomas Satoransky?

The NBA is a fluke league. Nuggets traded Gobert AND Donovan Mitchell to the Jazz, yet they're still 8 games ahead of them and a top team in the west. Rebuilding is a fluke game.

The top teams in the east with potential to win a championship this year -
Bucks :

2005 - #1 Andrew Bogut
2006 - "acquiring Jamaal Magloire (the player selected in Milwaukee's slot, Cedric Simmons, appeared in just 75 NBA games)"
2007 - #6 Yi Jianlian
2008 - #8 Joe Alexander
2009 - #10 Brandon Jennings
2010 - #15 Larry Sanders
2011 - #11 Jimmer Fredette (traded )
2012 - #14 John Henson
2013 - #15 Giannis
2014 - #2 Jabari Parker
2015 - #17 Rashad Vaughn
2016 - #10 Thon Maker

Only needed a non-lottery foreign prospect, second rounder from UVA, and a G-leaguer. Capitalized on disgruntled Bledsoe forcing his way out of the Suns, and Lopez signed a 1 year $3,000,000 contract.

Raptors:

2006 - #1 Andrea Bargnani
2007 - none
2008 - #17 Roy Hibbert
2009 - #9 DeMar DeRozan
2010 - #13 Ed Davis
2011 - #5 Jonas Valanciunas
2012 - #8 Terrence Ross
2014 - #20 Bruno Cabocolo
2015 - #20 Delon Wright

Kawhi out of nowhere demands a trade, and the Spurs wanted a win-now player instead of the best possible package of future assets (hard to see any other franchise wanting that in the future for their unhappy superstar). Drafted #27 Siakam.

Sixers:

Sam Hinkie destroyed any chance of another "process". With the new odds tank at your own peril .

Orlando Magic are in their 6th year of rebuilding with 6 lottery picks (five of them being in the top six) and they are just now competing for the 8th seed. Kings with 12 straight years of lottery picks, only now competing for the 8th seed. T-Wolves and Pelicans wasting/wasted their #1 pick big men.

The three teams of the future* people agree on - Mavs had 3 lottery picks from 2000-2018 (3 since 2013), and then were gifted Luka and Kristaps in one year. Hawks traded Luka away, still had 3 picks in one of the deepest drafts in a long while. Bulls got Markannen in a Butler trade, the other pieces are questionable, got Otto as a salary dump. Other potential teams: Suns are terrible and Ayton and Booker are already unhappy. Nets, thought to be dead after they traded all of their high draft picks away, now they finally get their picks back and aren't even in the lottery.

For the Wizards, all this doom and gloom of having a 25 year old, 2x all star, arguably top 3 at his position. As for the other guard Wall, I don't buy that he's going to be a terrible player when he comes back. He ended his bone spurs season with 21/4/9 with 2 steals and 1 block, and his eFG% - for what it's worth - was the highest of his career, his TS% second highest, even with his FT shooting down .80 points of his career average, and his 3pt shooting down .70 points from last year. Call me a Wall homer, but I think he'll evolve his game, and if Beal keeps being accoladed by the league, and if the Wizards get a coach Wall respects, he'll accept being 2nd fiddle.

Since 04 -
Single title:

Boston went from winning 24 games in 2007 and losing the lottery, to winning 66 games in 2008 and winning the finals because they turned Al Jefferson(15) Gerald Green (18) Ryan Gomes (50) Jeff Green (5) into Ray Allen and KG; Dallas Mavericks had won at least 50 games every season since 2000, no lottery picks, and in six of those years they had no first round picks; Miami with Payton, Mourning, O'Neal and Wade.

Multiple titles:

Spurs juggernaut that won't be recreated. Lakers well built with a top 3 player. Curry era defining Warriors against injured Cavs, then with a KD free agent superteam, Cavs/Heat with the GOAT of a generation LeBron.

Because Wizards will never be a free agent destination, it will take a miracle, not a rebuild, to ever hope of winning a title. Most great teams will never win a title. I'd say the strategy of keep Beal + major fluke has as good or better % chance as the total rebuild at winning a championship. Imagine if the Wizards got the #2 pick in 2010. I doubt they even win 1 playoff series. And from now on you tank with terrible odds in shallow drafts - and if they don't adjust rookie contracts when high schoolers come out you're forced to hand out 5 year maxes to 21 year olds because your team has no way to improve besides the draft.