Team Canada Basketball Thread V2.0

[mojo13]

And breaking news as well - they have determined the top seeds:
USA, Spain, France, Serbia, Argentina, Lithuania and Greece.
http://www.fiba.basketball/news/top-seeds-for-fiba-basketball-world-cup-2019-draw-confirmed-in-latest-nike-world-ranking-men

The complete draw procedures, based on the ranking and geographical principles, will be published during the week leading up to the next milestone event on the Road to China 2019.

Still don;t know if placment in the FIBA Americas even matters.


Hopefully we get China's pool, because we won;t get into Argentina's (which would be the second worst 1 seed).

[BilboBanginz]

Hmmmmm....new FIBA Rankings just came out today.
We are unmoved at #23. So winning FIBA Americas did not matter?
http://www.fiba.basketball/rankingmen

http://www.fiba.basketball/en/news/top-seeds-for-fiba-basketball-world-cup-2019-draw-confirmed-in-latest-nike-world-ranking-men

The wording of this article leads me to believe that the tournament draw will be based off of FIBA Rankings, which is not great for Canada. We're 23rd, 17th if you exclude teams that didn't qualify. That means that Canada will probably be the 3rd best team in it's group for the World Cup based on FIBA rank.

[Mattd97]

That's some bull

[mojo13]

Hmmmmm....new FIBA Rankings just came out today.
We are unmoved at #23. So winning FIBA Americas did not matter?
http://www.fiba.basketball/rankingmen

http://www.fiba.basketball/en/news/top-seeds-for-fiba-basketball-world-cup-2019-draw-confirmed-in-latest-nike-world-ranking-men

The wording of this article leads me to believe that the tournament draw will be based off of FIBA Rankings, which is not great for Canada. We're 23rd, 17th if you exclude teams that didn't qualify. That means that Canada will probably be the 3rd best team in it's group for the World Cup based on FIBA rank.

Ya - here are the HYPOTHETICAL pots just on ranking:
1. CHI-USA-ESP-FRA-SRB-ARG-LIT-GRE
2. RUS-AUS-BRA-ITA-P.R-TUR-DOM-VEN
3. GER-CAN-CZE-POL.IRN-MTN-PHI-KOR
4. NIG-SEN-NZL-ANG-JAP-JOR-TUN-CMF


That would be so FIBA to see us win FIBA Americas but be the worst seeded Americas team.

[casoldi]

How do we destroy Venezuela and we're a 3 seed and they're a 2 seed SMH

[mojo13]

How do we destroy Venezuela and we're a 3 seed and they're a 2 seed SMH

This is nothing official. It is speculation that if they used seeding based just on their rankings. We have to wait and see.

[frumble]

Thanks for the info and clarification re the Worlds seeding and Olympic qualifying.

Finishing in the top 16 at the Worlds (top 2 of 4 in initial group) is going to be critical to qualifying for Olympics. I don't like our chances of being one of the two other America's teams that gets to go to Olympic qualifying tournament, as I suspect it will be based on a wildcard entry system that is susceptible to corruption.

[Pooh_Jeter]

I read somewhere that the seedings are based on the last 8 years of play (i guess it includes qualification games too?).

So obviously there are 4 groups of 8 teams, but does anyone have a detailed schedule of the tournament? So 7 round robin games then playoffs?

[mojo13]

I read somewhere that the seedings are based on the last 8 years of play (i guess it includes qualification games too?).

So obviously there are 4 groups of 8 teams, but does anyone have a detailed schedule of the tournament? So 7 round robin games then playoffs?

There will be 8 groups of 4 teams. And yes we may be talking about the current FIBA rankings (8 year history weighted more heavily to recent results) as the the criteria for seeding. That was what was used determine the Top 8 Seeds listed above.

[mojo13]

Thanks for the info and clarification re the Worlds seeding and Olympic qualifying.

Finishing in the top 16 at the Worlds (top 2 of 4 in initial group) is going to be critical to qualifying for Olympics. I don't like our chances of being one of the two other America's teams that gets to go to Olympic qualifying tournament, as I suspect it will be based on a wildcard entry system that is susceptible to corruption.

I think there is still some confusion here. To clarify my understanding of the Olympic Qualifier Tournaments. After they determine the 7 direct entries into the Olympics from the World Cup (Canada would need to be among the top two finishers among the FIBA Americas - so it could be anywhere from 2nd to 26th). They then take the 16 next best finishers from the WC (that could be a bronze medal team because it is two max. per zone (one from Africa)) and add them to the Olympic Qualifier Tournaments. Then they fill that out with 8 wild cards (no more than two per zone). Those wild cards could go to teams that finished lower than the "Next 16" in the WC or teams that where not even in the WC at all (like Slovenia, Mexico, Croatia etc.)

Canada would have to really $hit the bed to not at least get into the the "Next 16" from the WC to the Olympic Qualifier Tournaments. That would be teams in the ~8th to ~25th range give or take. No way we would be below that.

Heck we are clearly the 2nd best team in the Americas and should finish top 2 among FIBA Americas in the WC. Weird pools and playoff matchups can happen and Argentina or Brasil could end up ahead of us, but we'd clearly have the best Vegas odds at this point (might need to reassess after we see the pools). ARG and BRA are clearly declining. ARG was practically full force in the Qualifiers missing maybe a couple players. We can put together a way better A team than them.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Hmmmmm....new FIBA Rankings just came out today.
We are unmoved at #23. So winning FIBA Americas did not matter?
http://www.fiba.basketball/rankingmen

Interesting. I wish I had taken a screenshot of the last one so I could see if our point total even went up at all.

At least we should gain some ground after the World Cup, since Mexico won't get any points from that after not qualifying, and we'll at least get some points just for participating, and hopefully many more if we can make a good showing. Our previous participation that will be dropped from the 8-year cycle would be the 2010 World Championship where we finished 22nd. So as long as the team does better than that, Canada's standing should increase slightly.

It'll probably take until about 2022 or 2023 until the ranking reflects Canada's true strength in the sport. And hopefully the boys ranking is a good indicator of where we're headed, where Canada is currently tied for 2nd with Lithuania, only behind the US (although the RJ Barrett-led world championship may have temporarily raised that ranking to unreasonable heights, as I don't think we should expect to win the gold every two years).

[aminiaturebuddha]

Seeding based on ranking is definitely not advantageous for Canada, but even still I'd have a hard time seeing how we'd end up in a group where Canada wouldn't be better than two of the teams. All they would need to do is get into the second round, and then from there they should be in the driver's seat.

Conversely, can you imagine being a team that is seeded 1st or 2nd, and then finding out that you also have to deal with a close-to full strength Canadian team in your pool? Some teams are going to be very unhappy with their draw come March.

[mojo13]

Seeding based on ranking is definitely not advantageous for Canada, but even still I'd have a hard time seeing how we'd end up in a group where Canada wouldn't be better than two of the teams. All they would need to do is get into the second round, and then from there they should be in the driver's seat.

Conversely, can you imagine being a team that is seeded 1st or 2nd, and then finding out that you also have to deal with a close-to full strength Canadian team in your pool? Some teams are going to be very unhappy with their draw come March.

I don’t know. There is a chance Canada gets in with Australia as a 2 seed and then USA or France or Spain as a 1 seed and then a Nigeria or someone as a 4th seed. Hopefully not, but that seems a possible nightmare scenario.

[TrueNorth31]

Glad the issue of seeding and the draw has come up for the World Cup.

The reason it's important is that in the initial round the top 2 teams in each group of 4 move onto the top bracket. Canada does not want to be placed into a Group of Death with lets say Spain-Australia and a weak Asian team. We could be sent to the backside of the draw( bottom 16) if we struggle out of the gate and lose to two strong opponents.

The good news is that FIBA does not seem to use a strict seeding system, rather it tries to spread the groups evenly according to both quality and geographical principles.

Here's how they did the recent World U19 draw ( scroll to the 28 minute mark) where they describe the principles in place for the draw.

http://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2019/videos/LIVE-%F0%9F%94%B4-Draw

You'd have to think they're quite aware of the deficiencies of this rather dubious points system. Obviously on paper both Canada and Australia are arguably top 8 teams - so they need to find a way to finagle this disparity. I also feel that FIBA doesn't want to anger both the NBA and the Shoe companies which are huge money drivers for this event. Canada with a very strong NBA presence in terms of players has that as an advantage. Fiba also seems to want to get China into the top 16 to keep interest up in the host country - so even though they are ranked # 30 overall, they got a top 8 seed (hopefully this shows they are somewhat open to being flexible). Let's hope common sense prevails in the making up of the groups.

[Hair Canada]

Hmmmmm....new FIBA Rankings just came out today.
We are unmoved at #23. So winning FIBA Americas did not matter?
http://www.fiba.basketball/rankingmen

Interesting. I wish I had taken a screenshot of the last one so I could see if our point total even went up at all.

At least we should gain some ground after the World Cup, since Mexico won't get any points from that after not qualifying, and we'll at least get some points just for participating, and hopefully many more if we can make a good showing. Our previous participation that will be dropped from the 8-year cycle would be the 2010 World Championship where we finished 22nd. So as long as the team does better than that, Canada's standing should increase slightly.

It'll probably take until about 2022 or 2023 until the ranking reflects Canada's true strength in the sport. And hopefully the boys ranking is a good indicator of where we're headed, where Canada is currently tied for 2nd with Lithuania, only behind the US (although the RJ Barrett-led world championship may have temporarily raised that ranking to unreasonable heights, as I don't think we should expect to win the gold every two years).

Nice discussions here everyone, thanks.

Regarding the youth seeding, we don't really need to win gold every two years. It's enough that we continue to win the silver in the U16 and U18 FIBA Americas (as we've been doing fairly easily in recent years) and then perform reasonably well and win a medal once in a while in the U17 and U19 WCs. Such achievements should solidify us in 2nd place, as European teams face stiffer competition and tend to fluctuate more in achievements depending on class.

[frumble]

I think there is still some confusion here. To clarify my understanding of the Olympic Qualifier Tournaments. After they determine the 7 direct entries into the Olympics from the World Cup (Canada would need to be among the top two finishers among the FIBA Americas - so it could be anywhere from 2nd to 26th). They then take the 16 next best finishers from the WC (that could be a bronze medal team because it is two max. per zone (one from Africa)) and add them to the Olympic Qualifier Tournaments. Then they fill that out with 8 wild cards (no more than two per zone). Those wild cards could go to teams that finished lower than the "Next 16" in the WC or teams that where not even in the WC at all (like Slovenia, Mexico, Croatia etc.)

Canada would have to really $hit the bed to not at least get into the the "Next 16" from the WC to the Olympic Qualifier Tournaments. That would be teams in the ~8th to ~25th range give or take. No way we would be below that.

Thank you, that makes sense. So automatic entry into Olympic qualifiers is not top 16, but next 16 after the auto bids to the Olympics. Yes, I agree our chances of being in the next 16 after the auto bids has got to be very high, even if participation isn't great.

And we should have a decent chance at one of the two auto bids, provided we have decent participation.

[TrueNorth31]

The problem with letting things go to the last chance tournament is timing. The tournaments appear to be scheduled for June 24/20 - unfortunately this is the absolute worst possible time for NBA players who don't have contracts for the 2020 season. The issue is that you can't sign contracts until about July 6/20 long after the event is over. Also most European players don't have contracts until mid -July and as well Vegas summer league starts in the first week of July ( July 5 in 2019). Here's the contract situation for some of our top players( obviously injuries and NBA clubs signing off on availability are also factors ) .

- Joseph ( free agent after this season - hopefully he signs for more than 1 year and is available )
- Murray ( available - will sign a long term extension this year )
- SGA ( hopefully available - not expected to attend Vegas as entering third year )
- Barrett ( expected to go to Vegas - can he pressure them to do both?)
- Brooks ( free agent probably not available)
- Wiggins ( under contract available)
- Tristan ( not available free agent)
- Powell ( free agent not available)
- Olynyk ( under contract)
- Lyles ( Free agent unless he signs extension)

We are a little thin in the post, so that's something to consider . Hopefully we get a good draw and it doesn't come to this. Another thing to consider instead of a 4 team pool in 2016 it's now a 6 man group - with the winner moving on to the Olympics.

[Mattd97]

The problem with letting things go to the last chance tournament is timing. The tournaments appear to be scheduled for June 24/20 - unfortunately this is the absolute worst possible time for NBA players who don't have contracts for the 2020 season. The issue is that you can't sign contracts until about July 6/20 long after the event is over. Also most European players don't have contracts until mid -July and as well Vegas summer league starts in the first week of July ( July 5 in 2019). Here's the contract situation for some of our top players( obviously injuries and NBA clubs signing off on availability are also factors ) .

- Joseph ( free agent after this season - hopefully he signs for more than 1 year and is available )
- Murray ( available - will sign a long term extension this year )
- SGA ( hopefully available - not expected to attend Vegas as entering third year )
- Barrett ( expected to go to Vegas - can he pressure them to do both?)
- Brooks ( free agent probably not available)
- Wiggins ( under contract available)
- Tristan ( not available free agent)
- Powell ( free agent not available)
- Olynyk ( under contract)
- Lyles ( Free agent unless he signs extension)

We are a little thin in the post, so that's something to consider . Hopefully we get a good draw and it doesn't come to this. Another thing to consider instead of a 4 team pool in 2016 it's now a 6 man group - with the winner moving on to the Olympics.

well thats one benefit to this format, weve got a deep pool of guys whove played games together. for a qualifying tournament against weaker teams, that may almost be better than a full nba team who havent had that same practice

[Sakkreth]

China being first seed is a joke. They would get blown out by 30 vs any other team in the top seed.

[mojo13]

I don't know if news on the "B" and "C" guys is still interesting until the next round of qualifiers (tell me and I'll stop posting) - but Trae Bell Haynes separated from Fraport Skyliners last week. I heard once or twice that he was struggling a couple months back, so I guess they finally pulled the plug. But I don't know the real details.

https://www.usbasket.com/Canada/news/567734/Trae-Bell-Haynes-left-Deutsche-Bank-Skyliners

Kassius Robertson seemed to play well this year in the BBL, so I am a little surprised Trae flamed out. But I think Best and Peter-McNeilly have struggled a bit too. I tell ya, the best under the radar talents in Europe continue to be Kenny Chery and Dylan Ennis.

Anyone ever here what happened to Manny Diressa this year? It was announced in the summer that he signed in Serbia and then I have never heard another word. Season long injury?