Recordwise, what would over-achieving look like in 2019?

dagger · Post #1 » by **dagger** » Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:29 pm

Well, there are no outsized expectations for 2019. The media and developments have (finally) dumbed down the casual fan. But not as much has changed with the Jays from the second half of last season except that the Donaldson and Tulo sagas are done, the obligation (through August at least) to play Russ Martin is done. At least for now, Stroman and Sanchez are still here, and both could have (for them), bounce back years. Both are seemingly in good health, Sanchez claims the surgery he has had on his finger should allow him to pitch up to his capabilities. At this stage, Devin Travis is healthy, too. The only real loss is Jay Happ.

The team has invested in a huge grab bag of AAA/AAAA pitching talent, many recovering form from injuries, and it's not unreasonable to think a couple of the veteran signings in particular (I'm thinking Shoemaker/Richard here) will be no worse than Sam Gaviglio or the rookie starts of Sean Reid Foley and Thomas Pannone in particular, and possibly a bit more reliable. The bullpen might even be better than the pen at the start of last season. Giles, Phelps, Mayza (who was a better LHP than Loup), Biagini in a long role rather than as a starter, Tepera,

Yes, injuries provide a lot of uncertainty with pitching, but there are reasonable odds that of all the long-shots the team has taken in trading for arms the past eight or nine months, one or two will work out decently as relief depth if nothing more.

And getting Vlad will give everyone a shot of adrenalin and purpose.

So the Jays might win a few more games than people expect.

What would be a plausible over-achievers' record for this group?

I'm thinking 75 wins

Of course, if there are over-achievers, there will be a chance to trade guys for prospects, but lets make our over-achieving predictions on the assumption that the talent we start the season with (including Vlad) is what we end it with.

phillipmike · Post #2 » by **phillipmike** » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:31 pm

I expect around 75. If you have injuries and let downs it will be close to 70 and could get in the 60s. If you are healthy, players take the next step and rookies are as good as expect you can get somewhere near 80-85.

dagger · Post #3 » by **dagger** » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:37 pm

phillipmike wrote:I expect around 75. If you have injuries and let downs it will be close to 70 and could get in the 60s. If you are healthy, players take the next step and rookies are as good as expect you can get somewhere near 80-85.

I'm not optimistic about reaching .500 in any scenario because that's where trades would become very attractive. In my mind, playing at or above .500 at the trade deadline would likely mean Sanchez, Stroman, Giles, Phelps, perhaps others, have increased their trade value and attracted offers management won't resist.

Lateral Quicks · Post #4 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:02 am

I'm thinking 70 wins, largely because I think odds are we'll sell off the remaining veteran talent by the end of the year. That includes the likes of Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar, and possibly Smoak. We could be really, really bad after the trade deadline, if not before.

But, it should still be entertaining to watch the prospects come along.

GoRapstheoriginal · Post #5 » by **GoRapstheoriginal** » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:51 pm

Yeah 73 to 80 wins would be nice if possible.

torontoaces04 · Post #6 » by **torontoaces04** » Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:45 am

Anything over 62 wins.

Ado05 · Post #7 » by **Ado05** » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:36 am

80 wins.

So_Fresh · Post #8 » by **So_Fresh** » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:33 pm

Anything over 80, but I'm setting my expectations low and saying the 2019 Blue Jays will finish with 75 to 80 wins. Like Lateral said we're going to be one bad team after July 31st once Shatkins trades Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar and possibly Smoak. Hopefully 3 of the 4 or all 4 will have strong seasons so we can get something decent in return. And by a return I mean MLB ready and "A" or top 100 potential prospects. I'm expecting 2020 will be the same if not worse.

BigLeagueChew · Post #9 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Sat Feb 2, 2019 7:33 pm

Fangraphs team projections are out, 77 wins currently for us.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

The Reds added as much as they could so far this off season and they're only projected for 5 more wins than us.

BigLeagueChew · Post #10 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Fri Feb 8, 2019 6:04 pm

pecota projections also out, including team drc+, from baseball prospectus

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

76 wins projection for the blue jays

dagger · Post #11 » by **dagger** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 7:28 pm

torontoaces04 wrote:Anything over 62 wins.

This looks a fair bit better than a 62 win team right now. That's only a little above 2018 Orioles bad. Except of the loss of half a season of Jay Happ, it may be a slightly better team than last season which is why my thought is closer to 73-75 wins, even if we trade Stroman or Sanchez at the deadline.

Black Watch · Post #12 » by **Black Watch** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:10 am

Tim Dierkes, in a MLBTR weekly chat wrote:77 win team...pretty weak at middle infield and OF corners/DH and a pitching staff that looks highly questionable even if Stroman returns to form. It is fair to say that the Blue Jays are not trying too hard to win in 2019. Unless you're more excited about Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard than I am

ratul · Post #13 » by **ratul** » Fri Mar 1, 2019 4:22 pm

71 wins
19,500 in attendance (35% drop)

Yosemite Dan · Post #14 » by **Yosemite Dan** » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:10 pm

I would not be surprised if we have the worst record in the majors this year, yes worse than Baltimore. So anything above 70 is overachieving.

The_Hater · Post #15 » by **The_Hater** » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:50 pm

If we’re truly talking about overachieving, 81-84 wins. Of course that’s not likely but it only takes a handful overachieving/unexpected seasons, decent health and a dash of luck for an MLB team to find an extra 10-15 wins.

On the flip side, a few underachieving/disappointing seasons, poor health and bad luck could leave them fighting for the worst record in MLB.

dagger · Post #16 » by **dagger** » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:56 pm

I'm seeing some good spring training performance from younger players, the question is whether any of them can force their way onto the team before the trade deadline. Anthony Alford has done well, Kevin Pillar on the other hand, is off to a slow start. But you know that the team isn't just going to DFA Pillar (or Grichuk or any other veteran) to make room for Alford as early as opening day. So if trends continue, the end-of-year win total may also reflect when in-season moves are made. I don't see this management responding to merit-driven moves early in the season - the exception might be bringing up Bo Bichette soon after Vlad if Bo carries his excellent spring into a strong start at Buffalo. Travis is injured, again, and Bo has excellent chemistry with Vlad, so that move might make good sense.