Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[trast66]

Shoe - good post. I think the Bucks have avoided the terrible contracts (Mahinmi, Wall even if he is still serviceable). And they had the draft picks, both rounds, to take. Ted trades them to cover mistakes. The Belichick thinking where the more picks, even if lower in round, the better as it’s a crapshoot anyway except for LeBron. And the Bucks weren’t what they are until a better coach came in.

Agree should not trade Beal (nor Otto). And get a new coach and of course GM.

I disagree it takes a miracle to win a championship. it takes luck for sure, but you make your own luck. Pat Riley didn’t just get lucky, he was good.

[Illmatic12]

Shoe - good post. I think the Bucks have avoided the terrible contracts (Mahinmi, Wall even if he is still serviceable). And they had the draft picks, both rounds, to take. Ted trades them to cover mistakes. The Belichick thinking where the more picks, even if lower in round, the better as it’s a crapshoot anyway except for LeBron. And the Bucks weren’t what they are until a better coach came in.

Agree should not trade Beal (nor Otto). And get a new coach and of course GM.

I disagree it takes a miracle to win a championship. it takes luck for sure, but you make your own luck. Pat Riley didn’t just get lucky, he was good.

Didn't the Bucks just give up a future first to dump John Henson's contract? They've had multiple draft picks and got nothing out of them. Jabari Parker was a #2 overall pick who walked for NOTHING. Heck, they could have at least tried to trade him to the Wizards for Otto Porter, lol! Thon Maker - top 10 pick they ended up trading for a 2nd rounder. Bucks hit on the Giannis pick, outside of that can you really look at their track record of moves/personnel management and say this is a team that had a well-executed plan? No, it was mostly luck.

And we'll see how easy it is for them to avoid terrible contracts this offseason - Bledsoe, Middleton, Brogdon, Mirotic, Lopez all FAs and every single one of them will want to get paid significantly more than they're worth, because of the team's high-profile of success.

I believe Milwaukee's old GM was the one who drafted the Greek Freak. Well, their new FO has basically been coasting (yes they did well to hire Budenholzer, but that's an easy sell when you have a foundational player in place like Giannis). This summer is where the Bucks FO will have to actually earn their money.

[Illmatic12]

I'm pretty sure this season will be Ernie's last. I don't see how he can survive these last 3-4 years of obvious & colossal incompetence.

Yeah, there's a good chance EG "retires" this year to "spend more time with his family".

Rumor or guess?

Leonsis interview that came out today. Judge for yourself, does it seem like Ernie's employment status is in good standing with his boss? Idk but it doesn't sound good for him

Read on Twitter

If, ie when the Wiz miss the playoffs, it seems pretty likely that a decision has been made for him to step aside. Of course Ted would never say it directly out of respect for their personal friendship.

I would bet Ernie has a cushy role lined up with the NY Knicks, probably some sort of emeritus advisory role. As I recall, early in the season NY sports reporters first had the scoop that Grunfeld's job status with Washington was in danger (and somehow they knew this well before David Aldridge, Buckner or anyone else on the Wizards beat reported it).

Wizards will issue a press release thanking Ernie for his service, and EG will release a statement fairly similar to this, with the names/places changed (ehh..okay maybe he'll add a little more flourish and prose than this)

MILWAUKEE -- The Milwaukee Bucks released general manager Ernie Grunfeld from the final year of his contract Sunday, allowing him to immediately pursue other jobs in the NBA.

"I have one year left on my contract and the Bucks graciously have allowed me to resign and seek other employment," Grunfeld said in a statement released by the team. "I appreciate that. I have been treated well in Milwaukee and we have had success."

Grunfeld has been rumored as a candidate for president of basketball operations with the Washington Wizards. The Washington Post reported Saturday that Grunfeld could join the Wizards' front office as early as Tuesday.

[dangermouse]

Now I really am cheering on every loss. BOTTOM OUT GUYS! High pick + Ernie might not be making it. Wooweee that would be better than getting swept in round 2 again.

[nate33]

Yeah, there's a good chance EG "retires" this year to "spend more time with his family".

Rumor or guess?

Leonsis interview that came out today. Judge for yourself, does it seem like Ernie's employment status is in good standing with his boss? Idk but it doesn't sound good for him

Read on Twitter

If, ie when the Wiz miss the playoffs, it seems pretty likely that a decision has been made for him to step aside. Of course Ted would never say it directly out of respect for their personal friendship.

[nate33]

It would be a mistake to trade Beal. In today’s NBA you need 2 (probably 3) top 25 players to compete for a title. Trading a top 25 player like Beal with the hope of eventually securing 2-3 other top 25 players is a huge gamble.

Beal is young and continues to get better. He has yet to reach his peak, imo. He’s a high-character, high-work ethic guy who plays hard all the time and seems to have fun playing the game. BB is also growing in his role as a team leader. That’s the kind of person you want to be the face of your franchise.

If Beal wants to stay in DC and is committed to doing that, I think the Zards would be wise to build around him.

To me, this is a clear case of “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

The math doesnt add up. You have Wall under contract for the next 4 years with the super max. Beal is due an extension and wants the max. How do you put a team around Beal that can actually do something?

You can't. How do you suppose the Wizards acquire the one to two other stars they need? Draft? It isn't going to be through free agency.

The future is real predictable. We'll max Beal out, be stuck on a one way train to nowhere and will end dealing him for pennies on the dollar once he's got his extension and demands a trade.

So what's the rosy scenario for a Beal led team where the second best player is either Thomas Bryant or Tomas Satoransky?

The NBA is a fluke league. Nuggets traded Gobert AND Donovan Mitchell to the Jazz, yet they're still 8 games ahead of them and a top team in the west. Rebuilding is a fluke game.

The top teams in the east with potential to win a championship this year -
Bucks :

2005 - #1 Andrew Bogut
2006 - "acquiring Jamaal Magloire (the player selected in Milwaukee's slot, Cedric Simmons, appeared in just 75 NBA games)"
2007 - #6 Yi Jianlian
2008 - #8 Joe Alexander
2009 - #10 Brandon Jennings
2010 - #15 Larry Sanders
2011 - #11 Jimmer Fredette (traded )
2012 - #14 John Henson
2013 - #15 Giannis
2014 - #2 Jabari Parker
2015 - #17 Rashad Vaughn
2016 - #10 Thon Maker

Only needed a non-lottery foreign prospect, second rounder from UVA, and a G-leaguer. Capitalized on disgruntled Bledsoe forcing his way out of the Suns, and Lopez signed a 1 year $3,000,000 contract.

Raptors:

2006 - #1 Andrea Bargnani
2007 - none
2008 - #17 Roy Hibbert
2009 - #9 DeMar DeRozan
2010 - #13 Ed Davis
2011 - #5 Jonas Valanciunas
2012 - #8 Terrence Ross
2014 - #20 Bruno Cabocolo
2015 - #20 Delon Wright

Kawhi out of nowhere demands a trade, and the Spurs wanted a win-now player instead of the best possible package of future assets (hard to see any other franchise wanting that in the future for their unhappy superstar). Drafted #27 Siakam.

Sixers:

Sam Hinkie destroyed any chance of another "process". With the new odds tank at your own peril .

Orlando Magic are in their 6th year of rebuilding with 6 lottery picks (five of them being in the top six) and they are just now competing for the 8th seed. Kings with 12 straight years of lottery picks, only now competing for the 8th seed. T-Wolves and Pelicans wasting/wasted their #1 pick big men.

The three teams of the future* people agree on - Mavs had 3 lottery picks from 2000-2018 (3 since 2013), and then were gifted Luka and Kristaps in one year. Hawks traded Luka away, still had 3 picks in one of the deepest drafts in a long while. Bulls got Markannen in a Butler trade, the other pieces are questionable, got Otto as a salary dump. Other potential teams: Suns are terrible and Ayton and Booker are already unhappy. Nets, thought to be dead after they traded all of their high draft picks away, now they finally get their picks back and aren't even in the lottery.

For the Wizards, all this doom and gloom of having a 25 year old, 2x all star, arguably top 3 at his position. As for the other guard Wall, I don't buy that he's going to be a terrible player when he comes back. He ended his bone spurs season with 21/4/9 with 2 steals and 1 block, and his eFG% - for what it's worth - was the highest of his career, his TS% second highest, even with his FT shooting down .80 points of his career average, and his 3pt shooting down .70 points from last year. Call me a Wall homer, but I think he'll evolve his game, and if Beal keeps being accoladed by the league, and if the Wizards get a coach Wall respects, he'll accept being 2nd fiddle.

Since 04 -
Single title:

Boston went from winning 24 games in 2007 and losing the lottery, to winning 66 games in 2008 and winning the finals because they turned Al Jefferson(15) Gerald Green (18) Ryan Gomes (50) Jeff Green (5) into Ray Allen and KG; Dallas Mavericks had won at least 50 games every season since 2000, no lottery picks, and in six of those years they had no first round picks; Miami with Payton, Mourning, O'Neal and Wade.

Multiple titles:

Spurs juggernaut that won't be recreated. Lakers well built with a top 3 player. Curry era defining Warriors against injured Cavs, then with a KD free agent superteam, Cavs/Heat with the GOAT of a generation LeBron.

Because Wizards will never be a free agent destination, it will take a miracle, not a rebuild, to ever hope of winning a title. Most great teams will never win a title. I'd say the strategy of keep Beal + major fluke has as good or better % chance as the total rebuild at winning a championship. Imagine if the Wizards got the #2 pick in 2010. I doubt they even win 1 playoff series. And from now on you tank with terrible odds in shallow drafts - and if they don't adjust rookie contracts when high schoolers come out you're forced to hand out 5 year maxes to 21 year olds because your team has no way to improve besides the draft.

Great post, Shoe!

I disagree about the Wall part though. I think Wall will never be the same. And as I've said before, Wall at 90% of what he once was is crippling because he must dominate the ball to be on the court. Other good players can defer if they're not at 100%, but Wall can't do that because he is an absolute dumpster fire as an off-the-ball player.

[pcbothwel]

Rumor or guess?

Leonsis interview that came out today. Judge for yourself, does it seem like Ernie's employment status is in good standing with his boss? Idk but it doesn't sound good for him

Read on Twitter

If, ie when the Wiz miss the playoffs, it seems pretty likely that a decision has been made for him to step aside. Of course Ted would never say it directly out of respect for their personal friendship.

I've been saying this for a couple months... EG is out.
Now, it may be in the most gracious way with EG "Retiring" and Tommy Sheppard may be the replacement...but EG is gone.

[queridiculo]

I've been saying this for a couple months... EG is out.
Now, it may be in the most gracious way with EG "Retiring" and Tommy Sheppard may be the replacement...but EG is gone.

So if it's so obvious Ernie is out, who on earth signed off on all these god awful trades?

I'll believe it when I see it.

[pcbothwel]

I've been saying this for a couple months... EG is out.
Now, it may be in the most gracious way with EG "Retiring" and Tommy Sheppard may be the replacement...but EG is gone.

So if it's so obvious Ernie is out, who on earth signed off on all these god awful trades?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Think about the trades we made:
- No future salary added
- No 1st round picks traded

The fact that our young players were kept(Brown, Bryant, Sato) along with our best asset (Beal) means EG had clear constraints on what he could do.
Ted has to put this team in a position to attract a good GM.
Salary flexibility, 1st round picks, and at least one elite asset/AS player is at the very least a decent starting core.

[nate33]

I've been saying this for a couple months... EG is out.
Now, it may be in the most gracious way with EG "Retiring" and Tommy Sheppard may be the replacement...but EG is gone.

So if it's so obvious Ernie is out, who on earth signed off on all these god awful trades?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Think about the trades we made:
- No future salary added
- No 1st round picks traded

The fact that our young players were kept(Brown, Bryant, Sato) along with our best asset (Beal) means EG had clear constraints on what he could do.
Ted has to put this team in a position to attract a good GM.
Salary flexibility, 1st round picks, and at least one elite asset/AS player is at the very least a decent starting core.

That's being a little too charitable.

I think you are partly correct in that Ted refused to trade any future 1sts so that the team remained attractive to a good GM. But I don't think the salary dumping was based in future flexibility. Our future flexibility is bad no matter what, because of Wall's contract. The salary dumps were to avoid the luxtax.

[pcbothwel]

So if it's so obvious Ernie is out, who on earth signed off on all these god awful trades?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Think about the trades we made:
- No future salary added
- No 1st round picks traded

The fact that our young players were kept(Brown, Bryant, Sato) along with our best asset (Beal) means EG had clear constraints on what he could do.
Ted has to put this team in a position to attract a good GM.
Salary flexibility, 1st round picks, and at least one elite asset/AS player is at the very least a decent starting core.

That's being a little too charitable.

I think you are partly correct in that Ted refused to trade any future 1sts so that the team remained attractive to a good GM. But I don't think the salary dumping was based in future flexibility. Our future flexibility is bad no matter what, because of Wall's contract. The salary dumps were to avoid the luxtax.

We are saying the same thing. I dont mean being under the cap. "Flexibility" meaning the new GM can make some trades and use the MLE without being under immediate directive to cut salary to get under the tax.

We are over the cap, but have RFA rights on Sato, Bryant, Dekker, and Portis along with rights on Ariza and Green.
A smart GM sees a good bit of maneuverability there along with a top 6 pick and Beal

[dckingsfan]

... "Flexibility" meaning the new GM can make some trades and use the MLE without being under immediate directive to cut salary to get under the tax...

[payitforward]

Here's a ridiculous, but plausible scenario. I got it from an ESPN article predicting free agent moves, and the Wizards were "also mentioned" as a potential destination for Cousins, though they weren't a top 4 prediction.

First, we assume Howard opts out and Mahinmi is stretched. That results in the following payroll:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
7 minimum salary roster spots - $6.2M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $84.9M
CAP SPACE: $25.1M

The same scenario as above, but instead of going after Cousins, what if we went after Tobias Harris? Imagine landing Harris for $25M a year while also getting lucky enough to draft Barrett. Resign Sato with the Room Exception, plus Green and Dekker for the vet minimum. Add in a random vet-minimum free agent center like Kyle O'Quinn:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown
SF Barrett/Dekker
PF Harris/Green
C Bryant/O'Quinn

We would just need a coach who could teach defense. And for Brown and Dekker to learn to shoot 3's.

nate, I'm loving this "scenario" jag you've gone on! It encourages thinking laterally, creatively, about who's out there & how to acquire the guy(s).

I'm not a huge fan of Harris, as you know. He's a good player, no doubt, but -- to me at least -- Wall's contract seems to make it impossible for the Wizards to become a good team except by by acquiring players who are big-time bargains, i.e. way more productive than their pay grade. That's not Harris.

Maybe the best example of someone underpaid who is also & obviously an outstanding player is Larry Nance. He is signed through June 2023 at a bargain salary -- a bargain now, plus it declines year by year ($12.7m > $11.7m > $10.7m > $9.7m).

Another bargain player I'd be targeting is Kevon Looney, who will be unrestricted at the end of the season. I'm sure GS will want to retain him, but they have a difficult salary situation to navigate. Perhaps Looney will fall between the stools.

It looks to me like Dat's favorite player ( -- not!) is falling victim to the current trend of 3-point-shooting bigs & will be available at a veteran minimum salary next year. Whatever you think he *can't* do, the things he actually does are enough to make him an enormous bargain at that price. I wouldn't pass on him, that's for sure.

[payitforward]

The NBA is a fluke league. Nuggets traded Gobert AND Donovan Mitchell to the Jazz, yet they're still 8 games ahead of them and a top team in the west. Rebuilding is a fluke game....

Sam Hinkie destroyed any chance of another "process". With the new odds tank at your own peril .

Orlando Magic are in their 6th year of rebuilding with 6 lottery picks (five of them being in the top six) and they are just now competing for the 8th seed. Kings with 12 straight years of lottery picks, only now competing for the 8th seed. ...

...Boston went from winning 24 games in 2007 and losing the lottery, to winning 66 games in 2008 and winning the finals because they turned Al Jefferson(15) Gerald Green (18) Ryan Gomes (50) Jeff Green (5) into Ray Allen and KG...

...Because Wizards will never be a free agent destination, it will take a miracle, not a rebuild, to ever hope of winning a title. Most great teams will never win a title. I'd say the strategy of keep Beal + major fluke has as good or better % chance as the total rebuild at winning a championship. ...

A lot of thought went into the terrific long post you crafted, Shoe -- thanks!

I want to pick a couple of bones, however.

1. The NBA isn't "a fluke league." It's a league whose game has only 5 men on the floor at a time. That means one player has an outside influence, & it only takes 2-3 players to turn an also ran into a champion (you give the best example: the Celtics a decadee+ ago).

In our case, for example, right now we have 5 players who eat up 160 of the 240 player-minutes per game. The overall productivity of those guys is the determining factor in our lack of success. Beal is really good, Ariza is just ok, Portis has been pretty bad, Green has been really bad (despite having a good season -- for him), & Parker has been just absolutely godawful. The results follow logically from the above.

But, the fact that 1 or 2 individuals have a big impact doesn't make success a fluke! It just makes player evaluation extremely important up & down the lineup. Do a bad job, & you lose a lot of games. Do a good job, & you become a good team.

Nor does it matter where you draft: research has shown that after the 3d pick there is no statistically meaningful correlation between where a player was picked & his level of success. Most people don't like that fact, & so they ignore it or deny it.

Orlando has done a terrible job of drafting, they've traded better players for worse players, they've traded young players for old players, they've made just about every mistake you can make in the last 8 years. It's no fluke that they have had little success.

Your points about the Nuggets don't support the position either. They are good precisely b/c they have been able to evaluate talent: Nikola Jokic, Will Barton, Monte Morris -- all R2 picks. In fact, I think they only have 1 player on their roster who was a lottery pick, & that's Jamal Murray who hasn't yet looked like he was worth any R1 pick at all.

2. The above doesn't really support your claim that keeping Beal has a higher chance of leading to a title than letting him go in a high-pick based total rebuild. But... it doesn't really show it wrong either! IOW, it's not the key variable.

The key variable is to stop doing stupid things (trading picks for bad players, trading players for players who are worse, trading young for old, handing out a supermax to a player who isn't really good enough to warrant one, etc. etc. etc.) & start doing smart ones.

Those "flukes" you see occur when doing something smart also turns lucky, so that you get more than you imagined you would. I.e. it ain't chance -- or, "chance favors the prepared mind," as the saying goes.

[nate33]

Here's a ridiculous, but plausible scenario. I got it from an ESPN article predicting free agent moves, and the Wizards were "also mentioned" as a potential destination for Cousins, though they weren't a top 4 prediction.

First, we assume Howard opts out and Mahinmi is stretched. That results in the following payroll:

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
7 minimum salary roster spots - $6.2M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $84.9M
CAP SPACE: $25.1M

The same scenario as above, but instead of going after Cousins, what if we went after Tobias Harris? Imagine landing Harris for $25M a year while also getting lucky enough to draft Barrett. Resign Sato with the Room Exception, plus Green and Dekker for the vet minimum. Add in a random vet-minimum free agent center like Kyle O'Quinn:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown
SF Barrett/Dekker
PF Harris/Green
C Bryant/O'Quinn

We would just need a coach who could teach defense. And for Brown and Dekker to learn to shoot 3's.

nate, I'm loving this "scenario" jag you've gone on! It encourages thinking laterally, creatively, about who's out there & how to acquire the guy(s).

I'm not a huge fan of Harris, as you know. He's a good player, no doubt, but -- to me at least -- Wall's contract seems to make it impossible for the Wizards to become a good team except by by acquiring players who are big-time bargains, i.e. way more productive than their pay grade. That's not Harris.

Maybe the best example of someone underpaid who is also & obviously an outstanding player is Larry Nance. He is signed through June 2023 at a bargain salary -- a bargain now, plus it declines year by year ($12.7m > $11.7m > $10.7m > $9.7m).

Another bargain player I'd be targeting is Kevon Looney, who will be unrestricted at the end of the season. I'm sure GS will want to retain him, but they have a difficult salary situation to navigate. Perhaps Looney will fall between the stools.

It looks to me like Dat's favorite player ( -- not!) is falling victim to the current trend of 3-point-shooting bigs & will be available at a veteran minimum salary next year. Whatever you think he *can't* do, the things he actually does are enough to make him an enormous bargain at that price. I wouldn't pass on him, that's for sure.

Yeah, in general, I agree with your main point that high price free agency is usually a sucker's game. The reality is that Harris probably costs more like $35M, not $25M, which makes this idea far less palatable. Mostly, I'm just throwing some ideas out there.

I'd be open minded to looking after Larry Nance Jr. I don't feel the same about Looney though. I think you have to take his numbers with a heaping dose of salt. Basically, he is never guarded by anyone because they're all focused on Curry, Durant and Klay. If you give him some actual defensive attention, I think his numbers would plummet.

[Jay81]

I feel it. Ernie is on his way out

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[dckingsfan]

I feel it. Ernie is on his way out.

I now consider Ernie jinxed!

[Dat2U]

Ok so I'm going over the 3 scenarios that can happen with our lottery pick:

Question - we can pick 4th now? Assume that was a change with the revised draft - I totally missed that.

In the second scenario, you would take Barrett over Morant? Not questioning you - just would like your insight.

And if we get Zion, a couple of things would happen.
1) Dwight would opt in
2) It would become much easier to sign FAs
3) EG then really would be the GM for life

1. Yep, we can get the 4th pick now!

2. Yep, I've seen growth in Barrett over the season. His stroke looks smoother as well. It looks like he'lI think he'll be a good shooter at the NBA level as he continues to work on it. That was my #1 concern for him. With a broke jumper, he's just a bigger Larry Hughes or a quick twitch Tyreke Evans. With a knockdown jumper he's a future 25+ scorer in the league and a multiyear all-star at minimum.

I'm not down on Ja. It's just easier to scout Barrett because all of his games are readily available. Morant like I said has all the Wall traits. The only difference is he is more elusive laterally and bouncy than Wall but Wall has the better frame to absorb contact from straight line drives. It would sort of hard to move on from Wall so abruptly with his clone but the kid is a special talent.

3. If we get Zion, our entire world would get turned upside down as a Wizards fan. This board would also become much busier!

[queridiculo]

I feel it. Ernie is on his way out.

I now consider Ernie jinxed!

I consider Ernie being out jinxed

[dckingsfan]

I feel it. Ernie is on his way out.

I now consider Ernie jinxed!

I consider Ernie being out jinxed

We are doing reverse jinxing