Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[NatP4]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

Good thing about that group is that it would have a bonafide chance to win us the top pick in the 2020 draft.

[DCZards]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

Hunter won't be there at 14. He's a top ten pick. Clarke may be there at 14, although I've seen a few mock drafts that have him in the 10-12 range.

[pcbothwel]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

Stop stealing my plans...

My 2 amendments would be:
1) Hunter & Clarke probably wont both be available, so you take either 1 at 14, and then either Garland, Hayes, Bol, Porter, Little, Doumbouya, Goga, or Fernando at 19.

2) Curry for the MLE...lololol... Seth Curry is a 29 y/o combo guard that doesnt defend, draw fouls, and has a higher TOV% than AST%
... I would MUUUCCCHHH rather spend that on Tyreke Evans, Arcidiacono, Cory Joseph or Tyus Jones

[nate33]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

I'd be thrilled with this scenario, but I don't think Hunter and Clarke last quite that long. Hunter will probably go before #14 and Clarke before #19. If we traded down, we might be able to still get Clarke, but we'd have to take him with the #14 pick. I haven't scouted deep enough into the draft to know who to get at #19.

I would love to get those two guys though. This team is desperate for defense and having a pair of sturdy forwards that think defense first would be a godsend.

[payitforward]

A lot of thoughtful comments! Surely, the single biggest variable is whether Ernie is still here. If he is, history tells us he will make any moves, however misguided, to hide previous errors. Hence, there's really no reason to discuss any future on that hypothesis -- with him at the helm we have no future.

What about a new GM -- esp. one Ted hires ...& then gets out of his way! In that case:

there's no reason to stretch Mahinmi. No reason to re-sign Trevor Ariza (except for vet minimum). No reason to re-sign Jeff Green (ditto). No reason to bring back Bobby Portis. No reason to bring back Jabari Parker. No reason to bring back Wes Johnson. No reason to do anything about Howard but hope he opts out (but... I doubt he will). No reason to pick up Chasson Randle's option (he does seem a likeable guy, but he's not worth the $1.86m of that option).

IOW, after literally 9 years of "rebuilding," we have 5 players worth retaining: Bradley Beal, Tomas Satoransky, Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant & Sam Dekker. & John, of course, making it 6.

Mahinmi will be on the roster, & we will have our R1 pick, taking us to 8 players -- at a probable cost @$101m, maybe a little less maybe a little more, depending on what it costs to sew up Sato, Bryant & Dekker for as long term as possible (a must in all 3 cases).

If we retain Green at the veteran minimum, sign Randle for @$1m, & pick Clarke, we are at 11 players for @ $108m (but only 10 of them play, Wall being out).

So far, what we see, basically, is this year's team -- plus one guy (Clarke) & minus another (Ariza). We are a 35-win team this year. Why would we expect to be better next year?

Well, if we hold down Green's minutes. If we play Dekker a whole lot more than we are playing him this year. If Clarke (or whoever) really can contribute from early in his rookie season. If we play Bryant more than 19 minutes a game. If we play Brown 20+ minutes a game. If those last 2 guys really do develop. Those things would make us better. Maybe we'd get up to .500?

The other thing we can do to improve is fill those 3 remaining spots in a really productive way. We'll have @$25m to do that, right?

But, how? Via free agency, I suppose. Who would be the 3 guys at a total of $25m who'd be able to do that? & what if, heaven forbid, Howard picks up his option, we'll be @117m for 12 guys. Who then?

[nate33]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

Stop stealing my plans...

My 2 amendments would be:
1) Hunter & Clarke probably wont both be available, so you take either 1 at 14, and then either Garland, Hayes, Bol, Porter, Little, Doumbouya, Goga, or Fernando at 19.

2) Curry for the MLE...lololol... Seth Curry is a 29 y/o combo guard that doesnt defend, draw fouls, and has a higher TOV% than AST%
... I would MUUUCCCHHH rather spend that on Tyreke Evans, Arcidiacono, Cory Joseph or Tyus Jones

I think Brown is going to pan out as more of a SG than a SF. So the rotation would be:

Sato/Beal (and Wall)
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Dekker
Clarke/Dekker
Bryant/Mahinmi

We'd still have about $27M in luxtax room (assuming Howard departs) but we'd have only the MLE and Bird Rights as a means of signing any halfway decent players. Under those circumstances, I think I'd willingly pay Ariza to come back on a one-year deal. Then use the full MLE on the best player I could find at any position. Heck, maybe even sign Portis and/or Parker to 1-year deals since there isn't much else we can do with the luxtax room. At least with those contracts around, they're assets that can be traded mid-season for someone, also, we would maintain Bird Rights on them in the unlikely event that they broke out and became stars.

[payitforward]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

Good thing about that group is that it would have a bonafide chance to win us the top pick in the 2020 draft.

Well, we certainly wouldn't be a playoff team, but why would that group push us down to the very bottom I wonder? Especially since that's only 8 of the 14 players we'll have on our roster.

Because we would no longer have Green? Ariza? Parker? Portis? Randle? Wes Johnson? Is that it? We need those guys?

[nate33]

The other thing we can do to improve is fill those 3 remaining spots in a really productive way. We'll have @$25m to do that, right?

But, how? Via free agency, I suppose. Who would be the 3 guys at a total of $25m who'd be able to do that? & what if, heaven forbid, Howard picks up his option, we'll be @117m for 12 guys. Who then?

The how part is tricky. Even if we had $25M in luxtax room available, we'd have only the $9M MLE (plus Bird Rights on Ariza, Portis and Parker) as a means of actually paying anyone more than a vet minimum contract. I'm all for using the MLE on the best bargain we can get in free agency, but it appears likely that we will still have $16M or so in luxtax room leftover, and no way to sign free agents. Once we get to that point, it makes sense to resign one or two of Ariza, Portis or Parker to a 1-year deal. It's either that or have luxtax room that serves no useful purpose.

[DCZards]

Don’t sign Portis or Parker. Let Bryant be the starting center and Brandon Clarke be the actual crunch time big minutes small ball 5.

Trade our pick for 14&19 and take Hunter and Clarke. Sign Seth Curry for the MLE. Re sign Dekker.

Sato Curry
Beal Curry
Brown Jr Hunter
Clarke Dekker Hunter
Bryant Clarke

Nothing unrealistic about any of it. That’s a good foundation. Also need to fire Brooks obviously.

Good thing about that group is that it would have a bonafide chance to win us the top pick in the 2020 draft.

Well, we certainly wouldn't be a playoff team, but why would that group push us down to the very bottom I wonder? Especially since that's only 8 of the 14 players we'll have on our roster.

Because we would no longer have Green? Ariza? Parker? Portis? Randle? Wes Johnson? Is that it? We need those guys?

I can see us being worse than last year with this group. Because you're basically relying on two rookies (Hunter & Clarke) and a SG/SF with limited experience (Brown jr.) to hold down the SF & PF slots.

That is unless you sign an experienced PF and/or SF (maybe Green or Ariza on the cheap) to help on the frontline. Portis would also be an option if the price is right.

[payitforward]

I think Brown is going to pan out as more of a SG than a SF. So the rotation would be:

Sato/Beal (and Wall)
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Dekker
Clarke/Dekker
Bryant/Mahinmi

We'd still have about $27M in luxtax room (assuming Howard departs) but we'd have only the MLE and Bird Rights as a means of signing any halfway decent players. Under those circumstances, I think I'd willingly pay Ariza to come back on a one-year deal. Then use the full MLE on the best player I could find at any position. Heck, maybe even sign Portis and/or Parker to 1-year deals since there isn't much else we can do with the luxtax room. At least with those contracts around, they're assets that can be traded mid-season for someone, also, we would maintain Bird Rights on them in the unlikely event that they broke out and became stars.

Well... since that's only 9 players, we'd obviously have to sign someone

But, why Ariza? It's obvious we won't be a good team next season. Shouldn't we focus on younger players? So, I guess I can see taking a $5m flyer on Parker. Though it's hard to believe there'd be much pay-back. Ditto on bringing Green back for the veteran minimum.

But, overall, doesn't it seem like time to turn our back to the past & start the next rebuild with a new GM?

[DCZards]

I think Brown is going to pan out as more of a SG than a SF. So the rotation would be:

Sato/Beal (and Wall)
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Dekker
Clarke/Dekker
Bryant/Mahinmi

Brown could actually turn out playing more PG than SF. We saw a little of him at PG in the Wolves game.

[pcbothwel]

I think Brown is going to pan out as more of a SG than a SF. So the rotation would be:

Sato/Beal (and Wall)
Beal/Brown
Hunter/Dekker
Clarke/Dekker
Bryant/Mahinmi

We'd still have about $27M in luxtax room (assuming Howard departs) but we'd have only the MLE and Bird Rights as a means of signing any halfway decent players. Under those circumstances, I think I'd willingly pay Ariza to come back on a one-year deal. Then use the full MLE on the best player I could find at any position. Heck, maybe even sign Portis and/or Parker to 1-year deals since there isn't much else we can do with the luxtax room. At least with those contracts around, they're assets that can be traded mid-season for someone, also, we would maintain Bird Rights on them in the unlikely event that they broke out and became stars.

Well... since that's only 9 players, we'd obviously have to sign someone

But, why Ariza? It's obvious we won't be a good team next season. Shouldn't we focus on younger players? So, I guess I can see taking a $5m flyer on Parker. Though it's hard to believe there'd be much pay-back. Ditto on bringing Green back for the veteran minimum.

But, overall, doesn't it seem like time to turn our back to the past & start the next rebuild with a new GM?

PIF... outside of a young player on a good contract, I would look any FA as a potential asset.
The reason I think Ariza is a good fit is simple.
Why for Wiz?
- You get a high character wing that can do a bit of everything on the court. Great role model for Brown Jr.
- 2 way wings that can pass and shoot are great assets at the deadline to deal to a contender

Why for Ariza?
- Starting role
- Good money (More than the Tax payer MLE of 5.5M)
- City/team he knows and feels comfortable with
- Have understanding that if team isnt contending (We wont be) that we would deal him the LAC, LAL, Houston, etc.

[payitforward]

Good thing about that group is that it would have a bonafide chance to win us the top pick in the 2020 draft.

Well, we certainly wouldn't be a playoff team, but why would that group push us down to the very bottom I wonder? Especially since that's only 8 of the 14 players we'll have on our roster.

Because we would no longer have Green? Ariza? Parker? Portis? Randle? Wes Johnson? Is that it? We need those guys?

I can see us being worse than last year with this group. Because you're basically relying on two rookies (Hunter & Clarke) and a SG/SF with limited experience (Brown jr.) to hold down the SF & PF slots.

That is unless you sign an experienced PF and/or SF (maybe Green or Ariza on the cheap) to help on the frontline. Portis would also be an option if the price is right.

Sure. I can too. But, the truth is that no matter who we add tp those guys, or to any guys we can start out with, we aren't going to be good next year. We aren't good this year, so why will we be good next year?

Do you really want, for example, Ariza to play minutes that Troy Brown could be playing next year? Why? Troy Brown is playing better than Ariza as a rookie. You expect Brown to develop; you expect Ariza to fade if anything.

If we're a bad team, if we miss the playoffs, what's the benefit?

[Dat2U]

Outside of landing Zion or trading for AD, there's little to no chance this team makes the playoffs next year.

I see Chicago, Atlanta, New York all being better than us right now. Chicago has to rest Otto to tank correctly. John Collins & Trae Young have broke out and the Knicks are likely coming away with KD & Kyrie.

That's just the team's UNDER us right now.

Re-signing Ariza & Green isn't going to make that 8th seed happen.

But I full expect the Wizards to try and fall flat doing so. I just hope no more long term assets are flushed away in the process although I assume they will be.

[dckingsfan]

I think Brown is going to pan out as more of a SG than a SF.

Or PG/SG? Does it change things if the guard rotation is Sato/Beal/Brown?

[NatP4]

interesting thought, I see Brown as a primary ball handler also. Maybe he can be that 1&2 guard behind Sato and Beal, play him big minutes. Hunter is your 3/4, Clarke is your 4/5.

They need to sign FAs that can be core pieces for the future, or flipped for assets. Trading otto to shed cap space and re signing Portis or Ariza would be outrageously stupid in my opinion. Just imagine for a minute, if this team had done the right thing and traded Wall to the lakers. Let's say it was literally just for Lonzo Ball and nothing else:

Sato Ball
Beal Brown jr
Oubre Hunter
Otto Dekker
Bryant Clarke

Such a terrible season

[NatP4]

I think Brown is going to pan out as more of a SG than a SF.

Or PG/SG? Does it change things if the guard rotation is Sato/Beal/Brown?

yeah, it makes Hunter an obvious choice to fill the 3/4 stretch forward void left from the hilariously awful Otto Porter trade

[payitforward]

The other thing we can do to improve is fill those 3 remaining spots in a really productive way. We'll have @$25m to do that, right?

But, how? Via free agency, I suppose. Who would be the 3 guys at a total of $25m who'd be able to do that? & what if, heaven forbid, Howard picks up his option, we'll be @117m for 12 guys. Who then?

The how part is tricky. Even if we had $25M in luxtax room available, we'd have only the $9M MLE (plus Bird Rights on Ariza, Portis and Parker) as a means of actually paying anyone more than a vet minimum contract. I'm all for using the MLE on the best bargain we can get in free agency, but it appears likely that we will still have $16M or so in luxtax room leftover, and no way to sign free agents. Once we get to that point, it makes sense to resign one or two of Ariza, Portis or Parker to a 1-year deal. It's either that or have luxtax room that serves no useful purpose.

The other way to look at it: I ask myself, "when does it serve a useful purpose to sign a player to a 1-year deal?" (I'm leaving out vet minimum deals, the purpose of which is to fill out a roster inexpensively)

One purpose I see easily is for some specific upgrade relating to succeeding in the playoffs. Either in the sense of increasing the likelihood of getting out of round 1 (or 2, or 3, or winning a title) or in the sense of getting home court advantage or at least a match-up against a weaker team in round 1 when you think you have a team that can contend for a title.

Another purpose I see, a possible purpose at least, is along the lines of your suggestion to perhaps sign Jabari Parker to see whether a still young and obviously gifted athlete will finally put it together. In the nature of things, that's a long shot, but there can be individual cases where the argument to do it is strong.

I can think of no other purpose. What am I missing? Given the situation we are in I'd rather add cheap young players who might have a shot to improve.

Obviously, one does not altogether preclude the other. In particular, however, Trevor Ariza is the prototype of a player a team like ours does not need. & in principle, the older a player is the less interest I have in that kind of 1-year deal.

[nate33]

I can think of no other purpose. What am I missing? Given the situation we are in I'd rather add cheap young players who might have a shot to improve.

You are missing that a player on a one-year deal can be useful ballast in a trade, and if you manage to negotiate a cost effective deal, he can actually be a trade asset at the deadline to trade to a win-now team.

The bottom line, assuming all else is equal, come the Trade Deadline next February, I'd rather have a 15-man roster that costs $128M and includes Ariza on a one-year $8M contract, than have a 14-man roster that costs $120M. We would have more flexibility to do stuff. Maybe someone would trade us a worthless player and a late 2nd for Ariza.