Season Speculation, Free Agency & Trade Ideas: Our Johnson is finally working

[sunskerr]

The thing people are forgetting about TJ is that his contract is CHEAP and LONG. There is no reason to move him unless there's a clear and absolute talent upgrade. Judging TJ by his talents (or any player for that matter) alone, such as "all he does is score", without taking into account the percentage of salary cap he takes up, is simply not evaluating the entirety of TJ's actual value and so it is a poor assessment. There's no other way of putting it.

[cberry78]

Funny you mention Marion because I was thinking it would be nice if Oubre could turn into that type of player after seeing him with all those rebounds.

Obviously that's a very tall order and I think our bar has gotten so low that sometimes people can seem really good and we forget how good it is to have REALLY good players.

For example, look at Marion's 4th year compared to Oubre's. This was a couple years before Nash came back, when Marbury was here.

http://bkref.com/tiny/rQCx9 You look at BPM's, VORP, ORTG, DRTG..

It's amazing looking at once Nash was there, Marion's rebounds went from in the 9s to over 11 per game for a few years.

Marion was an amazing two-way player. One of my all time favourites. I would love to watch a player like him as a Sun again, but that is not happening for now.

Siakam probably is close...different type of PF but he can have similar impact in the future for the Raptors.

Ayton = Amare
Oubre = Marion
Booker = JJ

Now all we need is Nash.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/ricky-rubio

[bwgood77]

I imagine we will keep the cap hold on Oubre. If we keep our draft pick and the cap hold on Holmes, that will only leave between about $6-$9 million in cap space depending on how high our pick is. If we traded our pick and didn't take any salary back, we would have $15.5 million in cap space with the holds. If we released the Holmes hold it goes up to $17 million.

Here are the draft pick rookie scale contracts...the cap holds on them are 120% of salary because you can pay them anywhere from 80%-120% of hold. I imagine most high picks get the 120%.

So that puts the #1 pick at about $9.6, #2 at about $8.6, #3 at $7.8, #4 at $7, #5 at $6.4, #6 at $5.8 and #7 at $5.3.

So wherever our pick lands, you would subract the associated salary from $15.5 (with Oubre/Holmes holds) and $17 with just Oubre hold.

Doesn't include Dragan. So it will be interesting to see what road they take to create cap space. Obviously trading our pick and adding salary like Jackson, Warren or Johnson are about the only ways to take back a big salary like Jrue in trade. If we don't do a trade, it will come down to either stretching Johnson or trading someone like TJ and not taking money back to create more space (if we keep our pick).

I imagine Bukstein has mapped out a bunch of different scenarios and options with his decision trees or whatever it is they said they used.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Once they use up their cap space they can then use the 4.5 Mil 'room exception' MLE. Can only be a 1 or 2 yr deal. Could be a route they go to grab a cheap rotation vet.

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[lilfishi22]

Good message from Johnson.

Read on Twitter

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

It's great seeing a vet bringing some of that intense Miami Heat culture to the Suns

[cberry78]

I imagine we will keep the cap hold on Oubre. If we keep our draft pick and the cap hold on Holmes, that will only leave between about $6-$9 million in cap space depending on how high our pick is. If we traded our pick and didn't take any salary back, we would have $15.5 million in cap space with the holds. If we released the Holmes hold it goes up to $17 million.

Here are the draft pick rookie scale contracts...the cap holds on them are 120% of salary because you can pay them anywhere from 80%-120% of hold. I imagine most high picks get the 120%.

So that puts the #1 pick at about $9.6, #2 at about $8.6, #3 at $7.8, #4 at $7, #5 at $6.4, #6 at $5.8 and #7 at $5.3.

So wherever our pick lands, you would subract the associated salary from $15.5 (with Oubre/Holmes holds) and $17 with just Oubre hold.

Doesn't include Dragan. So it will be interesting to see what road they take to create cap space. Obviously trading our pick and adding salary like Jackson, Warren or Johnson are about the only ways to take back a big salary like Jrue in trade. If we don't do a trade, it will come down to either stretching Johnson or trading someone like TJ and not taking money back to create more space (if we keep our pick).

I imagine Bukstein has mapped out a bunch of different scenarios and options with his decision trees or whatever it is they said they used.

What if we sigh Tyler to an extension (i.e. 4/36-ish), wouldn't this reduce his cap hit in the coming year?

[bwgood77]

Once they use up their cap space they can then use the 4.5 Mil 'room exception' MLE. Can only be a 1 or 2 yr deal. Could be a route they go to grab a cheap rotation vet.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Is the MLE only available if they are already over the cap before free agency? I knew they had at least one exception....plus the minimum player exceptions.

[phnart]

The thing people are forgetting about TJ is that his contract is CHEAP and LONG. There is no reason to move him unless there's a clear and absolute talent upgrade. Judging TJ by his talents (or any player for that matter) alone, such as "all he does is score", without taking into account the percentage of salary cap he takes up, is simply not evaluating the entirety of TJ's actual value and so it is a poor assessment. There's no other way of putting it.

That kind of logic excludes you from working for the Suns under Robert Sarver in perpetuity...You're clearly way too smart.

But seriously, I think I understand your point, even with my (allegedly) poor skills in assessing the actual value of an NBA player/scorer. As I wrote earlier, my hunch is that TJ is gone. Hopefully they do move him for a "Clear and absolute talent upgrade" as you wrote. With this team, I wouldn't count on it, but my guess is that right now, Sarver and James Jones loves themselves some Oubre Jr. and Bridges, which leaves TJ and JJ as the most likely Suns to move on to greener pastures. I would also surmise that TJ's fragile nature puts him ahead of JJ, who is making less and signed for the same number of years, if I have done my math correctly. Moving TJ and not JJ saves the Suns about 8 mil, from where I sit. Plus, JJ's effort on defense and the occasional (and hopefully improving) ability to pass and create shots for others while driving the lane make him a better fit on the team moving forward.

As the third highest paid player on the team over the next three years (not including this one where there are two dead contracts that surpass him), I don't know if I would say that TJ is "cheap" but then again, it's not my money. I'm sure TJ appreciates the support, though, and as a fan of his and the team, if they can make it work and start winning consistently, I will gladly cheer him on.

[bwgood77]

I imagine we will keep the cap hold on Oubre. If we keep our draft pick and the cap hold on Holmes, that will only leave between about $6-$9 million in cap space depending on how high our pick is. If we traded our pick and didn't take any salary back, we would have $15.5 million in cap space with the holds. If we released the Holmes hold it goes up to $17 million.

Here are the draft pick rookie scale contracts...the cap holds on them are 120% of salary because you can pay them anywhere from 80%-120% of hold. I imagine most high picks get the 120%.

So that puts the #1 pick at about $9.6, #2 at about $8.6, #3 at $7.8, #4 at $7, #5 at $6.4, #6 at $5.8 and #7 at $5.3.

So wherever our pick lands, you would subract the associated salary from $15.5 (with Oubre/Holmes holds) and $17 with just Oubre hold.

Doesn't include Dragan. So it will be interesting to see what road they take to create cap space. Obviously trading our pick and adding salary like Jackson, Warren or Johnson are about the only ways to take back a big salary like Jrue in trade. If we don't do a trade, it will come down to either stretching Johnson or trading someone like TJ and not taking money back to create more space (if we keep our pick).

I imagine Bukstein has mapped out a bunch of different scenarios and options with his decision trees or whatever it is they said they used.

What if we sigh Tyler to an extension (i.e. 4/36-ish), wouldn't this reduce his cap hit in the coming year?

Yes, but I'd be extremely surprised if he passed up on over $19 million for on year and free agency next summer. I assume he could at least get 3/17 next summer.

Not sure I'd want to tie up money in him that long...though I guess if you are just thinking as an alternative to stretching it only adds a few million a year until the final year and frees up $13 now.

Not something I'd count on him doing.

[bwgood77]

Good message from Johnson.

Read on Twitter

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

It's great seeing a vet bringing some of that intense Miami Heat culture to the Suns

I love that. I was thinking earlier that the Knicks game will be interesting because they could be a little TOO high on themselves and go in with the attitude of "We got this....we just won 3 of 4 and beat the Bucks and this is the Knicks" and need to stay focused and know they can't beat ANYONE unless they are all really locked in on defense like that, particularly when we are out a top scorer and shooter.

[bwgood77]

The thing people are forgetting about TJ is that his contract is CHEAP and LONG. There is no reason to move him unless there's a clear and absolute talent upgrade. Judging TJ by his talents (or any player for that matter) alone, such as "all he does is score", without taking into account the percentage of salary cap he takes up, is simply not evaluating the entirety of TJ's actual value and so it is a poor assessment. There's no other way of putting it.

That kind of logic excludes you from working for the Suns under Robert Sarver in perpetuity...You're clearly way too smart.

But seriously, I think I understand your point, even with my (allegedly) poor skills in assessing the actual value of an NBA player/scorer. As I wrote earlier, my hunch is that TJ is gone. Hopefully they do move him for a "Clear and absolute talent upgrade" as you wrote. With this team, I wouldn't count on it, but my guess is that right now, Sarver and James Jones loves themselves some Oubre Jr. and Bridges, which leaves TJ and JJ as the most likely Suns to move on to greener pastures. I would also surmise that TJ's fragile nature puts him ahead of JJ, who is making less and signed for the same number of years, if I have done my math correctly. Moving TJ and not JJ saves the Suns about 8 mil, from where I sit. Plus, JJ's effort on defense and the occasional (and hopefully improving) ability to pass and create shots for others while driving the lane make him a better fit on the team moving forward.

As the third highest paid player on the team over the next three years (not including this one where there are two dead contracts that surpass him), I don't know if I would say that TJ is "cheap" but then again, it's not my money. I'm sure TJ appreciates the support, though, and as a fan of his and the team, if they can make it work and start winning consistently, I will gladly cheer him on.

TJ makes $10.8 next year and Jackson makes $7. Oubre might end up the 3rd highest player and Ayton is right behind TJ. What do you mean "saves money"? Are you talking of trading them without taking salary back? For picks or something and then hopefully using money in FA or getting a clear talent upgrade with trade?

[bwgood77]

The thing people are forgetting about TJ is that his contract is CHEAP and LONG. There is no reason to move him unless there's a clear and absolute talent upgrade. Judging TJ by his talents (or any player for that matter) alone, such as "all he does is score", without taking into account the percentage of salary cap he takes up, is simply not evaluating the entirety of TJ's actual value and so it is a poor assessment. There's no other way of putting it.

He's also a little better than people think...defensively for example. He sticks to his man well and plays decent team defense. Oubre for example shows more energy but is not a good off ball and team defender much of the time and measures near the bottom of the SF DRPM rankings. TJ was really bad last year but showed vast improvement this year in those numbers, despite being on this terrible team (that has gotten beat badly a lot)... but you can see our wing rankings... TJ and JJ on this page, Mikal on page 1 and Oubre on page 3. http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/5

I think the one thing that Oubre brings, even though I don't really thing he is as good of a player as TJ, or at least consistently as good of a player, is that he probably communicates a lot more with teammates on the floor and gets people fired up, and raises people's spirits. That stuff is extremely important for a team like the Suns.

However, that stuff didn't translate to wins when he got here until after Tyler Johnson got here so I think whatever Tyler is doing and saying out there is likely having a more profound effect.

But given our overall talent level, we do have to be careful on letting hard working talent go unless it is that clear absolute talent upgrade, because I still think TJ is extremely important, especially to a team that is by far the worst 3 pt shooting team.

Great shooters are such a premium today. I mean a lot of people have a bunch of them, but we lack so much in that area, that it concerns me to lose one unless they don't provide too much else like Daniels (even though he has proven to be very useful at times).

[WeekapaugGroove]

Once they use up their cap space they can then use the 4.5 Mil 'room exception' MLE. Can only be a 1 or 2 yr deal. Could be a route they go to grab a cheap rotation vet.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Is the MLE only available if they are already over the cap before free agency? I knew they had at least one exception....plus the minimum player exceptions.

Yeah you can only use the full mle if you don't use cap space that summer and are under the tax. But you can use the room expection

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[darmani]

https://www.reddit.com/r/suns/comments/axnzpr/phoenix_suns_2019_cap_space_scenarios/

[bwgood77]

Interesting. I was thinking of making a thread just to have a dedicated place to look at cap scenarios with all the salaries and scenarios listed, so that's certainly useful.

[Crives]

So what’s the deal with Benders contract if we want to resign him? We cannot offer more yearly then the declined option, but we can add up to 4 years? Can other teams offer more then the declined option?

A three year deal at 4.6 is not looking bad.

Anybody know?

[Crives]

Interesting. I was thinking of making a thread just to have a dedicated place to look at cap scenarios with all the salaries and scenarios listed, so that's certainly useful.

Good idea

[BobbieL]

I imagine we will keep the cap hold on Oubre. If we keep our draft pick and the cap hold on Holmes, that will only leave between about $6-$9 million in cap space depending on how high our pick is. If we traded our pick and didn't take any salary back, we would have $15.5 million in cap space with the holds. If we released the Holmes hold it goes up to $17 million.

Here are the draft pick rookie scale contracts...the cap holds on them are 120% of salary because you can pay them anywhere from 80%-120% of hold. I imagine most high picks get the 120%.

So that puts the #1 pick at about $9.6, #2 at about $8.6, #3 at $7.8, #4 at $7, #5 at $6.4, #6 at $5.8 and #7 at $5.3.

So wherever our pick lands, you would subract the associated salary from $15.5 (with Oubre/Holmes holds) and $17 with just Oubre hold.

Doesn't include Dragan. So it will be interesting to see what road they take to create cap space. Obviously trading our pick and adding salary like Jackson, Warren or Johnson are about the only ways to take back a big salary like Jrue in trade. If we don't do a trade, it will come down to either stretching Johnson or trading someone like TJ and not taking money back to create more space (if we keep our pick).

I imagine Bukstein has mapped out a bunch of different scenarios and options with his decision trees or whatever it is they said they used.

What if we sigh Tyler to an extension (i.e. 4/36-ish), wouldn't this reduce his cap hit in the coming year?

Yes, but I'd be extremely surprised if he passed up on over $19 million for on year and free agency next summer. I assume he could at least get 3/17 next summer.

Not sure I'd want to tie up money in him that long...though I guess if you are just thinking as an alternative to stretching it only adds a few million a year until the final year and frees up $13 now.

Not something I'd count on him doing.

I would probably only free up like 10m since he would be getting 9m instead of 19.4. I think it would be a good deal if he took the 3/17 in new money so to speak but it would probably take 3/21 at least so 4/40. I do like what he brings though - toughness, smartsts, competes.

[BobbieL]

https://www.reddit.com/r/suns/comments/axnzpr/phoenix_suns_2019_cap_space_scenarios/

thanks for sharing

Tyler Johnson probably needs to be traded to do anything

granted moving JJ and the FR not Zion pick would allow taking back around 15m - but for what player

[RunDogGun]

tj would go great with lebron

I could see a TJ for Ball trade if we land Zion. Sadly we might have to add a pick, and I would really hate to watch TJ go. Also I picture a Cebolos like emergence for TJ if he went to LA.