2019 Packers Off Season Thread - Cut Day Saturday

[LittleRooster]

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[humanrefutation]

Barnwell on Preston Smith:

Preston Smith, OLB, Green Bay Packers
The deal: Four years, $52 million with $16 million guaranteed at signing
Grade: C-

One of two pass-rushers named Smith to sign with the Packers on Tuesday, Preston has had an interesting four-year career across from Ryan Kerrigan in Washington. He produced eight sacks on 305 pass-rushing opportunities as a rookie, which seemed to hint that the second-round pick held serious potential as a breakout star.

Since then, Smith has been closer to good than great. He has stayed healthy and started 48 games, but he has only racked up 16.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons across 1,130 pass rushes, which means he has generated sacks nearly half as frequently as he did during that rookie campaign. Smith's 49 knockdowns over that time suggest a slightly more optimistic approach, given that they would predict a 22-sack total, but Smith's cumulative three-year production is in the same ballpark with guys like Chris Long, Lorenzo Alexander, and long-time Packers stalwart Clay Matthews.

Matthews is a free agent, and the Packers made it clear he won't be coming back as an edge rusher with their signings on Tuesday. Along with Za'Darius Smith's signing, the Packers will be using their two Smiths to replace Matthews and soon-to-be free agent Nick Perry.

I understand the desire to move on from disappointing veterans and upgrade the edge rush, and there's certainly upside here, given that both Smiths are 26. At the same time, though, the Packers are paying something north of $20 million per season to two players who haven't produced a single nine-sack season in eight tries. They both benefited from playing alongside excellent talent and rarely saw double teams.

Most importantly, the Packers are making these moves in a year in which they have two first-round picks in a draft full of edge-rushing talent. It's possible Green Bay looked at the draft crop and didn't see impactful players falling to them at picks 12 or 30, but most other organizations don't seem to feel that way about this year's class. It's not an optimal use of resources to take expensive swings at young contributors with upside when the Packers were already well-positioned to take much cheaper swings at promising players. Adding one edge-rusher in free agency made sense, but two is probably overkill.

[emunney]

I'm glad we got two guys. We can still draft one if a good one falls; it's not going to hurt us to have a rotation of decent pass rushers.

[agiaco]

I'm totally fine with adding two via free agency if Gute thinks he can fill other holes in the draft early on. For a team that's lacked edge rushing for way too long, it's going to be great getting some pressure and relieving the secondary a bit.

[MAC1987]

Barnwell on Preston Smith:

Preston Smith, OLB, Green Bay Packers
The deal: Four years, $52 million with $16 million guaranteed at signing
Grade: C-

One of two pass-rushers named Smith to sign with the Packers on Tuesday, Preston has had an interesting four-year career across from Ryan Kerrigan in Washington. He produced eight sacks on 305 pass-rushing opportunities as a rookie, which seemed to hint that the second-round pick held serious potential as a breakout star.

Since then, Smith has been closer to good than great. He has stayed healthy and started 48 games, but he has only racked up 16.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons across 1,130 pass rushes, which means he has generated sacks nearly half as frequently as he did during that rookie campaign. Smith's 49 knockdowns over that time suggest a slightly more optimistic approach, given that they would predict a 22-sack total, but Smith's cumulative three-year production is in the same ballpark with guys like Chris Long, Lorenzo Alexander, and long-time Packers stalwart Clay Matthews.

Matthews is a free agent, and the Packers made it clear he won't be coming back as an edge rusher with their signings on Tuesday. Along with Za'Darius Smith's signing, the Packers will be using their two Smiths to replace Matthews and soon-to-be free agent Nick Perry.

I understand the desire to move on from disappointing veterans and upgrade the edge rush, and there's certainly upside here, given that both Smiths are 26. At the same time, though, the Packers are paying something north of $20 million per season to two players who haven't produced a single nine-sack season in eight tries. They both benefited from playing alongside excellent talent and rarely saw double teams.

Most importantly, the Packers are making these moves in a year in which they have two first-round picks in a draft full of edge-rushing talent. It's possible Green Bay looked at the draft crop and didn't see impactful players falling to them at picks 12 or 30, but most other organizations don't seem to feel that way about this year's class. It's not an optimal use of resources to take expensive swings at young contributors with upside when the Packers were already well-positioned to take much cheaper swings at promising players. Adding one edge-rusher in free agency made sense, but two is probably overkill.

Doesn't sound to good. But these moves probably had alot of input from Pettine. A couple key points.

1. They stay healthy, which bring consistency
2. The up front money may seem like alot but did they get big guarnteed money? or is that guarnteed money basically going to year 1 and 2. Meaning cut in year 3 if they don't produce. (other posters seem to have alluded to this point as well).

[humanrefutation]

Barnwell on Za'Darius Smith:

Za'Darius Smith, LB, Green Bay Packers
The deal: Four years, $66 million with a $20 million signing bonus
Grade: D+

Smith was a minor breakout candidate coming into 2017. He racked up 16 quarterback knockdowns to go with a mere 3.5 sacks that season, which usually hints at an increase the following year. Indeed, in a bigger role, Smith pieced together an impressive contract year with 8.5 sacks and 25 knockdowns, leading him to this big deal with Green Bay.

This isn't the first time the Ravens have had a backup breakout with a big sack total in the fourth year of his career. In 2012, Paul Kruger had nine sacks and then signed a big contract with the Browns. Kruger did put together an 11-sack season, but he recorded a total of 8.5 sacks in his three other post-Ravens campaigns. In 2014, Pernell McPhee impressed with 7.5 sacks and 26 knockdowns, leading him to sign a multi-year deal with the Bears. Injuries sapped McPhee's effectiveness, and he has generated 14 sacks in four subsequent seasons.

Smith is closer to McPhee than he is to Kruger, which is good. I also like his upside more than Preston Smith's. The Packers also just paid Za'Darius $16.5 million per season, which is a staggering amount of money for a player who has one year of notable production as a pass-rusher. Trey Flowers, who has been a far more productive player, just took home something in the ballpark of $17 million per season. Chandler Jones and Melvin Ingram average $16.5 million on their extensions.

If the average annual salary here is true -- and that's always a dangerous assumption before the specific contract details are out -- this is simply too much money. Smith's representation tweeted that Smith will take home $34.5 million over two seasons, though, which is probably close to what the practical guarantee will be on this contract. Smith needs to produce 25 sacks over those two seasons to make the math work on this for the Packers, and he hasn't yet been at that level as a pro.

[Matches Malone]

LOL at Bill Barnwell. Dude gave our signings outside of Amos, terrible grades. Look, you gotta pay if you want to upgrade in free agency, and we majorly upgraded.

[RRyder823]

Barnwell on Preston Smith:

Preston Smith, OLB, Green Bay Packers
The deal: Four years, $52 million with $16 million guaranteed at signing
Grade: C-

One of two pass-rushers named Smith to sign with the Packers on Tuesday, Preston has had an interesting four-year career across from Ryan Kerrigan in Washington. He produced eight sacks on 305 pass-rushing opportunities as a rookie, which seemed to hint that the second-round pick held serious potential as a breakout star.

Since then, Smith has been closer to good than great. He has stayed healthy and started 48 games, but he has only racked up 16.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons across 1,130 pass rushes, which means he has generated sacks nearly half as frequently as he did during that rookie campaign. Smith's 49 knockdowns over that time suggest a slightly more optimistic approach, given that they would predict a 22-sack total, but Smith's cumulative three-year production is in the same ballpark with guys like Chris Long, Lorenzo Alexander, and long-time Packers stalwart Clay Matthews.

Matthews is a free agent, and the Packers made it clear he won't be coming back as an edge rusher with their signings on Tuesday. Along with Za'Darius Smith's signing, the Packers will be using their two Smiths to replace Matthews and soon-to-be free agent Nick Perry.

I understand the desire to move on from disappointing veterans and upgrade the edge rush, and there's certainly upside here, given that both Smiths are 26. At the same time, though, the Packers are paying something north of $20 million per season to two players who haven't produced a single nine-sack season in eight tries. They both benefited from playing alongside excellent talent and rarely saw double teams.

Most importantly, the Packers are making these moves in a year in which they have two first-round picks in a draft full of edge-rushing talent. It's possible Green Bay looked at the draft crop and didn't see impactful players falling to them at picks 12 or 30, but most other organizations don't seem to feel that way about this year's class. It's not an optimal use of resources to take expensive swings at young contributors with upside when the Packers were already well-positioned to take much cheaper swings at promising players. Adding one edge-rusher in free agency made sense, but two is probably overkill.

After my initial shock of these signings had worn off I on board with this conclusion. People talk about BPA but odds were and still are in favor of BPA at 12 still being an edge player. Signing both Smith puts us in a very real position of with passing on the better player in the draft or paying huge money to a rotational pass rusher the next few years.

Sure it opens up the possibility of trading down or even drafting a guy like Wlliams to take over at Tackle but I'm having a hard time shaking the feeling the Z Smith is going to be making 16 million a year at least the next two years to be rotated in and out on 3rd downs.

Plus side is that would mean our edge situation is strong but as stated in that article probably not the best use of resources

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[humanrefutation]

Barnwell on Adrian Amos:

Adrian Amos, S, Green Bay Packers
The deal: Four years, $37 million
Grade: B-

After attempting to sign away cornerback Kyle Fuller from the Bears last offseason, the Packers finally stole a piece of the secondary from their divisional rivals. They traded Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in October and moved longtime cornerback Tramon Williams into the free safety spot, where the 35-year-old did surprisingly well for a veteran moved into a new role out of desperation in midseason. A rash of injuries in the secondary left the Packers starting street free agents like Eddie Pleasant and Ibraheim Campbell in games during the second half. It was a mess.

While Amos can play either safety spot, my suspicion is that he'll primarily end up playing free safety for the Packers, who have Kentrell Brice and Josh Jones to compete for the strong safety spot. There's always a risk of adding one piece from a great defense and hoping he'll be the same player in a lesser unit, but the Packers might not be far off from above-average cornerback play if Jaire Alexander continues to improve after an impressive rookie season across from Josh Jackson and Kevin King. (Amos also helps Green Bay the most alliterative defensive backfield in football.)

Amos hasn't had the sort of breakout, takeaway-laden season that ex-teammates Fuller and Eddie Jackson had in 2018. He hasn't deflected a million passes or forced a bunch of fumbles. It's a bit of a surprise to see him earn north of $9 million per year, but he's a solid, versatile safety who will allow the Packers to disguise more of what they want to do before the snap and give them the flexibility to bring in a more specific sort of free or strong safety if they choose to upgrade at the other spot in the draft. He also doesn't turn 26 until April, so Green Bay should be getting his peak seasons.

And on Billy Turner:

Billy Turner, G, Green Bay Packers
The deal: Four years, $28 million
The grade: D

A penny for Ted Thompson's thoughts. The long-time Packers general manager famously avoided free agency to the chagrin of some Packers fans, with the David Byrne lookalike preferring to build through the draft and rack up compensatory picks. The Packers tiptoed in the other direction last offseason under new GM Brian Gutekunst by signing Jimmy Graham and Muhammad Wilkerson, but after sprinting into free agency on Tuesday with four signings, the game has officially changed.

In the case of Turner, that's not for the better. It's difficult to see Thompson making this sort of move. Turner was a project coming out of North Dakota State when the Dolphins took him in the third round of the 2014 draft, and he struggled in a season starting at right guard before Miami released him in 2016. Turner caught on with the Ravens practice squad and then made his way to Denver, where he spent two years as a reserve or on injured reserve before being forced into the lineup in 2018.

With the help of a highly regarded offensive line coach in Sean Kugler, who is now in Arizona, Turner looked better in his return to the lineup. He filled in at both right tackle and left guard while starting 11 games, and STATS, LLC credited him as responsible for 3.5 sacks. Turner only committed two penalties in those 11 starts, which is reasonably impressive, too. The Broncos were hit by injuries along their line and still managed to run the ball effectively, finishing fifth in rush offense DVOA.

Before the 2018 season, Turner looked like a replacement-level lineman. Now, the 27-year-old looks like he might be a useful utility lineman, although you wouldn't really want to plug Turner in and count on him as a starter. The Packers are giving Turner $11 million in the first year of this deal, which values Turner as a surefire starter, likely at guard.

Green Bay needed to upgrade on Justin McCray, but it's unclear whether Turner's lone competent season as a pro will translate without Kugler in the mix. It's also a change from a Packers organization which has been drafting and developing guards effectively for seemingly decades. Would a reunion with T.J. Lang (if healthy) at a much lower price point have made more sense?

Given that the Packers have four top-75 picks and just spent heavily on their biggest defensive weaknesses, could they have found a similarly promising prospect in the draft for far less? Turner's too expensive of a lottery ticket.

[HaroldinGMinor]

I am fine taking two OLBs and then taking an OLB with #12.

[humanrefutation]

Yeah, there's no reason why we shouldn't take a pass rusher at 12 if that's BPA. We can absolutely use more than two.

But I get Barnwell's point - the contracts for the Smiths and Turner are Pro-Bowl level contracts for players who haven't played up to that point consistently, yet.

[Ill-yasova]

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I believe he only had 1 QB Hit all season. He was like the football equivalent of a guy with a .500 BABIP.

[Matches Malone]

Me at work today.

[MikeIsGood]

Yeah, there's no reason why we shouldn't take a pass rusher at 12 if that's BPA. We can absolutely use more than two.

But I get Barnwell's point - the contracts for the Smiths and Turner are Pro-Bowl level contracts for players who haven't played up to that point consistently, yet.

From that perspective, nearly all FA deals should be C or lower. Which is fine if that's how you want to treat it, but not unique to us.

[ReasonablySober]

I don't agree with Barnwell about relying on the draft to fill needs, particularly when you're on the clock with an aging QB. We just saw Thompson rely on that exact same strategy for over a decade and the Packers were left with a trash roster around an all-world QB.

I'm not expecting the new signings to be superstars. But if they're simply good players that allows us not to worry about their positions for the next few years, I'll be more than happy.

Go into the draft and take the best overall talents that fall.

[humanrefutation]

Yeah, there's no reason why we shouldn't take a pass rusher at 12 if that's BPA. We can absolutely use more than two.

But I get Barnwell's point - the contracts for the Smiths and Turner are Pro-Bowl level contracts for players who haven't played up to that point consistently, yet.

From that perspective, nearly all FA deals should be C or lower. Which is fine if that's how you want to treat it, but not unique to us.

Look at his grades. There are a whole lot of Cs and Ds.

[Turk Nowitzki]

Billy Turner is the most questionable signing to me. They must see something they like, seems like he's a bit of a late bloomer who finally got a chance to show he can be serviceable last year.

[MikeIsGood]

Yeah, there's no reason why we shouldn't take a pass rusher at 12 if that's BPA. We can absolutely use more than two.

But I get Barnwell's point - the contracts for the Smiths and Turner are Pro-Bowl level contracts for players who haven't played up to that point consistently, yet.

From that perspective, nearly all FA deals should be C or lower. Which is fine if that's how you want to treat it, but not unique to us.

Look at his grades. There are a whole lot of Cs and Ds.

Hard to keep up at work today; I trust you. Was just making a point that overpaying is essentially how you get free agents.

Today's deals strike me as better than yesterday's, though not by much.

[HaroldinGMinor]

And the reality is that you're only committing to roughly two years for these guys. They'll never see the full value of these contracts.

[Kerb Hohl]

And the reality is that you're only committing to roughly two years for these guys. They'll never see the full value of these contracts.

Next year we have a decent amount of space (probably) and/or can create some. Clark, Crosby, Martinez, Bulaga, Daniels are the notable free agents.

Clark is the only guy I'd for sure say we need to bring back. Maybe Martinez. So we should have some money to spend again next year or at least be able to keep who we need to keep.

After that (offseason before 2021), the Smith, Smith, Turner, Amos crowd can probably be cut basically for free.