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Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase?

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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#41 » by Xatticus » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:03 pm

Spoiler:
pepe1991 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Non of them are even close to starting level Cs, they are not even stop-gaps, more like band aid on bullet wound that Vuc departure would results. People ignore what Vuc does for this team.
Guy lierally leads team in everything, he is Magic version of Jokić ( just with piss poor supporting cast, unlike Jokić ).

Dedmon is least bad from that bunch but even him is pretty mediocre player. He is also pretty terrible on defense nowdays ( 112 def rating , -4,8 net rating ).
Holmes is 6'9 (at most ) C that is also pretty poor player on both ends. Rim running C ( -6,6 net rating ).

Much like two above them, Bryant is another C who should be better defender than he is ( 112 def rating, -4,3 net rating ). He made 24 threes in career, so i won't call him plus shooter, he is also restricted. ( Granted, he is 21 years old, so i belive Wiz will want to keep him around ).


Now you can argue that they have negative net rating due playing on bad teams ,but you can flip argument and point out that them being poor players are one of reasons why their teams are bad.

They are solid backups, 14-18 mpg players ,nothing more imo ( you can keep Birch for that purpose ), Magic , without Vuc will have literally nobody who can play 28-33 mpg at C. And no, Bamba is not that guy, at least not yet ( non contact injury after 46 min on heavy min restriction is all you need to know about his nba body )


What makes someone starting quality is whether or not they are starting. We have actually been better this year when Birch is on the floor than when Vucevic is. We were better last season when Birch or Speights were on the floor. We have gotten pummeled when Bamba has been on the floor this year. The same will probably be true for next season, but he is going to play regardless. This is because our long-term future is far more important than short-term success. This should be true for every sub-.500 team in the league. There isn't generally much upside to holding a bad team together unless it is also a young team. We are a bad team.

Vucevic leads this team in a variety of categories because this is what Clifford wants. He wants to run the offense through Vucevic. It was just one season ago that Vucevic finished behind both Fournier and Gordon in scoring and on poor efficiency. We were 25th in offensive efficiency last season. He was awful the season before that when we finished 29th in offensive efficiency. Our offense has improved this season, but we are still just 25th in the league in offensive efficiency; sandwiched between the Hawks and Cavaliers.

When a player occupies a central role in an offense, it can foster the perception that said player is instrumental to the offense and that the offense can't work in their absence. The reality is that our offense isn't really working regardless. Our offense would probably take a step back without Vucevic, but more than anything it would simply look different. The field goal attempts don't disappear. Their variety and distribution changes.

Our relative success this year has been driven by our defense. Vucevic doesn't really fill an important role in that regard. He simply camps in the paint and collects rebounds. The defensive metrics love Vucevic this year because of the team's defensive success and because of his rebounding rates. Defensive metrics have always flattered Vucevic due to his rebounding rates. The problem is that individual rebounding rates don't correlate very well to a team's rebounding efficiency.

Vucevic is almost certainly a better player right now than any of the three players I mentioned, but I don't think replacing Vucevic with Dedmon would significantly alter our win/loss outlook. I'm far less certain about how competitive we would be with Holmes or Bryant playing 25 minutes a night, though my interest in them has little to do with their immediate impact on our team. Young players are more prone to lapses, but both are capable of replacing what Vucevic offers in the paint. Vucevic clearly has a better understanding of NBA offense and his passing is on another level. Holmes and Bryant are at least as good at screening, but both consistently roll to the basket instead of floating away from it. I personally don't place much value in Vucevic's pick and pop game.

With regard to Bryant's shooting... his efficiency is solid from every range and he is shooting better than 80 percent from the free throw line on a healthy FTr. His 24 made three-point shots in his career are 17 more than Vucevic hit in his first five seasons in the league. I think it's safe to say that he is going to be able to pull his defender away from the basket if that's how you choose to utilize him.


. We were better last season when Birch or Speights were on the floor. We have gotten pummeled when Bamba has been on the floor this year.


Birch bearly played until February ,he logged 428 min this year ( Vuc over 2000 ). most of his games are through 8-3 record in February, that Magic had, but not thanks to him but thanks to Vučević 20-12,5 ,4,5 performance

Vucevic leads this team in a variety of categories because this is what Clifford wants. He wants to run the offense through Vucevic. It was just one season ago that Vucevic finished behind both Fournier and Gordon in scoring and on poor efficiency. We were 25th in offensive efficiency last season. He was awful the season before that when we finished 29th in offensive efficiency. Our offense has improved this season, but we are still just 25th in the league in offensive efficiency; sandwiched between the Hawks and Cavaliers.

What are alternatives for running offense through Vuc? Clifford runs plays through best player he has. Gordon? Isaac, Fournier are all clear huge downgrades on offense.


When a player occupies a central role in an offense, it can foster the perception that said player is instrumental to the offense and that the offense can't work in their absence. The reality is that our offense isn't really working regardless. Our offense would probably take a step back without Vucevic, but more than anything it would simply look different. The field goal attempts don't disappear. Their variety and distribution changes.

FGA don't disappear but are taken by lesser players, who get worst looks and more attention from defenders. As i posted before (yesterday actually) most of shots Gordon, isaac, Fournir and Ross get now are open and wide open thanks to Vučević who is only Magic player who draws attention and is worth game- planning if you face Magic.
Magic offensive rating went from 104,7 to 106,7 in one year. On greater scale it didn't mean much but it's clear upgrade from last year.

Our relative success this year has been driven by our defense. Vucevic doesn't really fill an important role in that regard. He simply camps in the paint and collects rebounds. The defensive metrics love Vucevic this year because of the team's defensive success and because of his rebounding rates. Defensive metrics have always flattered Vucevic due to his rebounding rates. The problem is that individual rebounding rates don't correlate very well to a team's rebounding efficiency.

Defensive metrics love Vučević because he plays good defense. Rim protectors got exposed in last two years as blocks become most overrated asspect of defense, because most of blocks result in continuation of opponent's attack, just with inbound and chance to set play.
As for camping in paint, that's execlly what all bigs do, even "great defenders" like Gobert flat out suck outside paint. ( hard to hold that against them ...)

Vucevic is almost certainly a better player right now than any of the three players I mentioned, but I don't think replacing Vucevic with Dedmon would significantly alter our win/loss outlook.


Really? You don't think that replacing allstar with backup of Alex Len is huge step back? That's interesting stand to take. i can only say that i find that ridiculous

With regard to Bryant's shooting... his efficiency is solid from every range and he is shooting better than 80 percent from the free throw line on a healthy FTr

He also shoots 36% from mid range...


I'm not arguing that Birch is better than Vucevic, but it is a fact that the team's net rating has been better over the last couple seasons while Birch has been on the floor. Read into that whatever you wish to. This in no way attributes wins or losses to either player. Vucevic has obviously been the team's most impactful player this season.

We haven't really improved that much on offense. Everything is relative. In this case, everything is relative to the competition. The league efficiency has increased from 108.6 points per 100 possessions to 110.1 points per 100 possessions. This means that we have improved from a team that was 3.4 points worse than average on offense to a team that is now 2.8 points worse than average. Conversely, we have improved from a team that was 1.5 points worse defensively to a team that is 1.8 points better than league average. This is why we rank 25th in offense again this year, yet we have spiked up to 8th in defensive efficiency.

There are basically three ways to defend the pick and roll. The ideal method is to simply switch, but that requires the personnel to do so. Rotations change in the playoffs because players that are incapable of switching become a significant liability.

The second method is to hedge and recover. If you do it well, you can take away the shot without allowing the ballhandler to split the defenders or throw a pocket pass to the big man that is rolling to the basket. When the opposing guard is a particularly dangerous shooter, you are more aggressive and hedge out beyond the 3-point line. Most teams are perfectly happy to allow the big to pop out for along 2-point shot. This has been a staple of our offense in the Vucevic era. That's a bad thing.

We neither switch nor hedge when Vucevic is on the floor. We basically allow him to sag deep into the paint. Even if the opposing ballhandler isn't a good shooter, you should pick them up above the free throw line. Vucevic seldom even does that. We surrender the 3-point shot. This is why we get obliterated by point guards that can shoot off the dribble like Russell, Walker, or Lillard. If they drive to the basket, we have our wings flash to the ballhandler and then recover to their assignment that has generally floated into the back corner. If they overcommit, you give up an open 3-point shot in the corner. Everyone blames our wings when this happens, but it is a function of a defensive scheme that is designed to accommodate the deficiencies of our center in defending the pick and roll. There is just no way that you can spin this as good defense. It is a tacit acknowledgement that actively trying to defend the pick and roll will do more harm than good. The plan is to pray for a miss and get a head start on establishing rebound position.

A low block rate is never a good thing. Not all block rates are created equally, but it is absurd to argue that blocks are inherently bad. Some players are much better than others when it comes to choosing their opportunities. When a player is overeager, they can get into foul trouble or surrender good rebounding position. Some players are actually capable of blocking shots without hunting for them and we have one of those in our starting lineup (Isaac).

Not that it really matters, but Dedmon isn't Len's backup. And yes... I'm confident that it wouldn't be a huge step back. If Vucevic was anywhere near as good as many on this forum believe he is, we wouldn't have a fan base that viewed our present situation (6 games under .500 and fighting for the 8th seed) as a success.
"Xatticus has always been, in my humble opinion best poster here. Should write articles or something."
-pepe1991
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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#42 » by basketballRob » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:05 pm

Lamb is the second best player on the Bobcats and most think they can't afford him.

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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#43 » by BadMofoPimp » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:27 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:

Lot of your bench players are not bench players
Lamb, Danny Green, Bogdanovic, Mirotić, Gibson,Bullock all started A LOT .
Not to mention Lamb, Green,Bojan, Mirotić won't be cheap at all, especially if you look what they make now.
Mirotić (12,5M), Bojan (10,5), Green ( 10).

Good players, but not really realistic targets without big overpay as they all play on top tear teams.


To me, Lamb, Mirotic, Gibson and Bullock are all bench players on a strong playoff team. Bogdanovic and Green are borderline starters on a solid playoff team.


Bojan is averaging 21 ppg since Dipo went down on team that is fighting for 3rd seed...
Also Mirotić, Lamb and Bullock are averaging starting level min, comming off bench or starting isn't really that important. Danny Green pretty much started all games since 2014 i think


Considering how much all those guys are going to get Paid, I would rather stick with Vooch and Ross outside of Bogdanovich, the rest are inferior.
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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#44 » by jayrehme » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:38 am

The Roster:

Bamba/Birch
Isaac/Gordon
?/Iwundu
?/Fournier
DJ/Fultz/Briscoe

The need is obvious, we need wing players/guards/playmakers. Save our money, draft a young player with talent like Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#45 » by OrlandoNed » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:05 am

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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#46 » by darthmerrick » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:17 am

Top Tier: Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Kris middleton,
2nd tier: Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, JJ Reddick, TRoss (Resign), Alec Burks, Danny Green, Darren Collisen
Restricted: Dangelo Russell
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Re: Hypothetical: Vuc and Ross walk - what FA's do we chase? 

Post#47 » by Skybox » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:01 am

jayrehme wrote:The Roster:

Bamba/Birch
Isaac/Gordon
?/Iwundu
?/Fournier
DJ/Fultz/Briscoe

The need is obvious, we need wing players/guards/playmakers. Save our money, draft a young player with talent like Nickeil Alexander-Walker.



Gordon will be traded long before he's backing up Isaac at PF.

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