The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1

[Dr Spaceman]

OK, I was bored so had to look at this. This is these 3 man groups over 11 games. The 11 games you're claiming makes this a GOAT defensive ceiling.

Spoiler:

These are OKC's top 11 3 man lineups, in a larger sample, for the season.



Every single one of them is better, in a larger sample, straight down the line. Houston's defense isn't unstoppable. It's been fairly average. And I'm saying this as someone who thinks they're the 2nd best team in the west but they're not even the highest defensive ceiling in the league today let alone ever. They're barely top 10 in a small sample you're hand choosing.

Edit: Also, here's Toronto and Boston. Also on the full season.

All 3 man units listed, minutes-weighted:

Houston: 105.394 defensive rating
OKC: 102.754
Toronto: 104.962
Boston: 104.682

So their top lineups have performed about as well defensively as Toronto and Boston and all 3 are a ways behind OKC. I’ll take that as a good sign for Houston’s defense.

[70sFan]

Warriors averaged 114.5 ORtg in the WCF. I know they had some really good games against them, but this is not what I'd call "shutting down". Not even close. They did very well in 3 games, but got absolutely destroyed in the other 4.
People also forget that Warriors outscored Houston by almost 10 ppg in the series. I really think that Rockets job became a bit too mythical, it was amazing series for them, but calling them "clear winners until CP3 injury" or "them shutting down Warriors" is not somethinf true.

[Dr Spaceman]

-I adressed sample size concerns in my reply to 70sFan

Whid did not impress me, at all. The only thing that makes this tiny sample relevant according to you is that they have been defending better.

and -3 is not slightly above average; that’s excellent.

In a 11 game sample it most certainly is not. Teams that are really good defensively have stretches that go way beyond that. The Thunder had a 29 game stretch in which they held opponents to 101.2 pp100p. The Bucks had a 27 game stretch in which they held opponents to 102.2 pp100p. Over the last 11 games, Houston is at 109.1 pp100p, which is one point per 100 possessions better than league average, which, by definition, is slightly above average (everything per bbref)

That's why you can't look at three weeks stretches like this and declare them highly relevant. They're not. They can be an indicator for the future, but the severity with which you're trying to drive this point home is simply off base.

To recap 1. Prior performance indicates the Rockets current stretch is a real thing and

In what way? What prior performance? The only prior performance we have on them is being bad defensively this season.

2. Their strength of schedule in this stretch is crazy high

70sFan said everything that needed to be said on this matter.

They get healthy this season and show indications that they have approached the same level they played at before. For some reason everyone is just dying to discount this. I don’t get it.

Because it's simply not true. That's what you don't get. You can't come out swinging like this when they haven't even been close to whatever it is you think they've been doing. "Nobody can score on them" would be an accurate description if they locked people up, holding them to 85 points a night or whatever. They're not even close to that.

The Thunder don’t have a track record of being a -10 defense. If they did I’d take that streak you mentioned very seriously.

First of all: Who has a track record of being a "- 10 defense"? Secondly, over the last two seasons the Thunder have been much better defensively with their PG-wing-Center trio on the floor than the Rockets even though they have tanked defensively in the 2nd half of the season two years in a row:

Westbrook-George-Adams: 107.7 per pbpstats.com
Paul-Harden-Capela: 112.1 per pbpstats.com

Historical data for the Thunder points towards them being a much better defense with their man guys on the floor than the Rockets over the past two seasons. But hell, I'm interested in a "pissing contest". I was simply using the Thunder as an example of a team that had a much more impressive defensive stretch than this.

It’s pretty clear at this point that there’s no common ground to be reached here. I’m not naive. I can look at the basketball reference homepage and see where the Rockets tank in defense. If, in spite of this, I am still saying I consider them one of the strongest defenses in the league, that should give you a pretty clear indication of how confident I am in this opinion. Simply repeating points per 100 numbers that I’ve already looked up for myself isn’t going to sway me.

PP100 can be affected by a lot of factors that don’t have much to do with defensive execution. Hot shooting, poor lineup management, strength of schedule, etc. You can’t fake the process. If I see a team that has an elite scheme and that is able to execute that scheme with few breakdowns, and I see enough of it that I’m confident in this opinion, pp100 doesn’t do much for me other than give a general ballpark, it’s far too imprecise to meaningfully rank teams. If the Rockets are somewhere in the top 10, that’s enough for me with how well they execute.

If you simply cannot wrap your head around the idea that a team could both be elite defensively and have less than inspiring regular season performance then there’s nowhere to go from here. I still had the Warriors as one of the best defenses last year despite their lackluster performance because the process was good. When a team really starts to lose it you can see it in the execution, 14 Heat is a good example as is this year’s Warriors (IMO).

If you seriously y want to move me from this position your argument needs to look like “actions x and y are not working and have been exploited by teams z and a and here is statistical eveidence for it”. But by repeating points per 100 all you’re doing is getting confirmation bias from people that already agree with you. That doesn’t help anyone.

I have provided, in detail, the exact reasons why the Rockets defense is so impressive to me. This isn’t some dude at the bar saying “Isiah was the best PG of all time look at how clutch he was!” I watch a lot of basketball, I have a lot of notebooks filled, and I’m willing to break down exactly what I see on film. If you don’t find me credible that’s fine but statistics can not tell the whole story of basketball.

Here’s a prediction: over the rest of this season the Rockets will be a top 5-10 defensive squad and will put up playoff performances in the same neighborhood as last year. If I’m wrong feel free to revisit this discussion and call me out.

The Rockets are finally healthy, they’re playing well, and the defense looks as impressive as last year to my eye. This has been my position for like 7 posts now.

[Pillendreher]

Here’s a prediction: over the rest of this season the Rockets will be a top 5-10 defensive squad and will put up playoff performances in the same neighborhood as last year. If I’m wrong feel free to revisit this discussion and call me out.

Good enough for me. No use to go back and forth on this

[bondom34]

OK, I was bored so had to look at this. This is these 3 man groups over 11 games. The 11 games you're claiming makes this a GOAT defensive ceiling.

Spoiler:

These are OKC's top 11 3 man lineups, in a larger sample, for the season.



Every single one of them is better, in a larger sample, straight down the line. Houston's defense isn't unstoppable. It's been fairly average. And I'm saying this as someone who thinks they're the 2nd best team in the west but they're not even the highest defensive ceiling in the league today let alone ever. They're barely top 10 in a small sample you're hand choosing.

Edit: Also, here's Toronto and Boston. Also on the full season.

All 3 man units listed, minutes-weighted:

Houston: 105.394 defensive rating
OKC: 102.754
Toronto: 104.962
Boston: 104.682

So their top lineups have performed about as well defensively as Toronto and Boston and all 3 are a ways behind OKC. I’ll take that as a good sign for Houston’s defense.

I picked 3 teams in the current NBA, all of who are better. And your conclusion is the worst one is the GOAT? Huh? That makes no sense, I could take Utah and Indy too, and they're not even top 5.

Edit: Here's another 3. Denver, Indy, and Utah. Denver's not even a good all time defense.





Like, they are what they are. A slightly above average 2018 defense. They're not even close to a greatest ever. They're not even close to greatest this year.

They might stay top 5-10 the rest of the season, but that's not even close to GOAT level. And its not even close to last year which wasn't GOAT level.

[Dr Spaceman]

OK, I was bored so had to look at this. This is these 3 man groups over 11 games. The 11 games you're claiming makes this a GOAT defensive ceiling.

Spoiler:

These are OKC's top 11 3 man lineups, in a larger sample, for the season.



Every single one of them is better, in a larger sample, straight down the line. Houston's defense isn't unstoppable. It's been fairly average. And I'm saying this as someone who thinks they're the 2nd best team in the west but they're not even the highest defensive ceiling in the league today let alone ever. They're barely top 10 in a small sample you're hand choosing.

Edit: Also, here's Toronto and Boston. Also on the full season.

All 3 man units listed, minutes-weighted:

Houston: 105.394 defensive rating
OKC: 102.754
Toronto: 104.962
Boston: 104.682

So their top lineups have performed about as well defensively as Toronto and Boston and all 3 are a ways behind OKC. I’ll take that as a good sign for Houston’s defense.

I picked 3 teams in the current NBA, all of who are better. And your conclusion is the worst one is the GOAT? Huh? That makes no sense, I could take Utah and Indy too, and they're not even top 5.

Edit: Here's another 3. Denver, Indy, and Utah. Denver's not even a good all time defense.





Like, they are what they are. A slightly above average 2018 defense. They're not even close to a greatest ever. They're not even close to greatest this year.

They might stay top 5-10 the rest of the season, but that's not even close to GOAT level. And its not even close to last year which wasn't GOAT level.

Plenty of top defensive teams ever have been in that fringe top ten-ish range. To name a few, 13 Heat (9th), 14 Grizzlies (8th), 18 Warriors (11th), 12 Pacers (9th), 06 Heat (10th). It’s not some impossibility.

Is it unlikely a grea;t defensive team foul end up looking as poor as the Rockets for most of the year? Yes. Is it possible? No, especially when you consider mitigating factors like age, the fact their scheme is extremely physically taxing (like the 13 Heat for example), injuries etc.

I’m not calling them the GOAT. Consistency is important. I’m saying they can reach a level that few, if any, have reached before.

[bondom34]

All 3 man units listed, minutes-weighted:

Houston: 105.394 defensive rating
OKC: 102.754
Toronto: 104.962
Boston: 104.682

So their top lineups have performed about as well defensively as Toronto and Boston and all 3 are a ways behind OKC. I’ll take that as a good sign for Houston’s defense.

I picked 3 teams in the current NBA, all of who are better. And your conclusion is the worst one is the GOAT? Huh? That makes no sense, I could take Utah and Indy too, and they're not even top 5.

Edit: Here's another 3. Denver, Indy, and Utah. Denver's not even a good all time defense.





Like, they are what they are. A slightly above average 2018 defense. They're not even close to a greatest ever. They're not even close to greatest this year.

They might stay top 5-10 the rest of the season, but that's not even close to GOAT level. And its not even close to last year which wasn't GOAT level.

Plenty of top defensive teams ever have been in that fringe top ten-ish range. To name a few, 13 Heat (9th), 14 Grizzlies (8th), 18 Warriors (11th), 12 Pacers (9th), 06 Heat (10th). It’s not some impossibility.

Is it unlikely a grea;t defensive team foul end up looking as poor as the Rockets for most of the year? Yes. Is it possible? No, especially when you consider mitigating factors like age, the fact their scheme is extremely physically taxing (like the 13 Heat for example), injuries etc.

I’m not calling them the GOAT. Consistency is important. I’m saying they can reach a level that few, if any, have reached before.

But they can't even reach the level of the best defenses in the NBA today. Their ceiling isn't as high as OKC, or Utah, or Boston. It's closer to Denver who's pretty average.

Edit: Also I don't think the 18 Warriors were an all time defense at all. The 13 Heat maybe, and the others not really either. Like 08 Boston is an all time defense.

[Lost92Bricks]

12 games since all-star break...107.5 DRtg. Despite facing the Warriors twice, Celtics, Raptors.

[Dr Spaceman]

But they can't even reach the level of the best defenses in the NBA today. Their ceiling isn't as high as OKC, or Utah, or Boston. It's closer to Denver who's pretty average.

Edit: Also I don't think the 18 Warriors were an all time defense at all. The 13 Heat maybe, and the others not really either. Like 08 Boston is an all time defense.

I don’t really know what you mean by “ceiling” but clearly it’s not the same thing as me. Those three teams you mentioned have been very consistent solid defenses, better than the Rockets so far this RS for sure, but I haven’t seen any of them shut down teams the way Houston has especially in the playoffs.

I mean we saw OKC and HOU go against the exact same Jazz team last year and the Jazz hung 108 ORTG on the Thunder and 101 on the Rockets. I know they had success pulling the ball out against Melo but if that was all it was they could’ve tried the same against Harden. Melo alone is not a -7 defensive player by himself.

Utah has real, repeatable issues guarding strong pick and roll guards in the postseason and have had these issues for years and will as long as Gobert is the key piece. Paul averaged 25 against them in 17 with the Clips and 25 against them in 18 with the Rockets. Curry averaged 25 on 68% true shooting in a sweep. Granted these are tough, tough covers but Gobert consistently has real issues in pick and roll coverage against quick shooting guards which, ya know, there’s a lot of them in the league today.

Boston I have no idea on earth how you could even feel comfortable projecting a ceiling for them given how much turmoil their roster has seen over the past few seasons.

As far as all those teams I mentioned to back and look at their playoff performances. Each has a very good argument for being the best defensive in the league in the given season.

Unless of course by “ceiling” you just mean “points per 100 in the regular season” which it seems like all that most in this thread are concerned with.

[bondom34]

But they can't even reach the level of the best defenses in the NBA today. Their ceiling isn't as high as OKC, or Utah, or Boston. It's closer to Denver who's pretty average.

Edit: Also I don't think the 18 Warriors were an all time defense at all. The 13 Heat maybe, and the others not really either. Like 08 Boston is an all time defense.

I don’t really know what you mean by “ceiling” but clearly it’s not the same thing as me. Those three teams you mentioned have been very consistent solid defenses, better than the Rockets so far this RS for sure, but I haven’t seen any of them shut down teams the way Houston has especially in the playoffs.

I mean we saw OKC and HOU go against the exact same Jazz team last year and the Jazz hung 108 ORTG on the Thunder and 101 on the Rockets. I know they had success pulling the ball out against Melo but if that was all it was they could’ve tried the same against Harden. Melo alone is not a -7 defensive player by himself.

Utah has real, repeatable issues guarding strong pick and roll guards in the postseason and have had these issues for years and will as long as Gobert is the key piece. Paul averaged 25 against them in 17 with the Clips and 25 against them in 18 with the Rockets. Curry averaged 25 on 68% true shooting in a sweep. Granted these are tough, tough covers but Gobert consistently has real issues in pick and roll coverage against quick shooting guards which, ya know, there’s a lot of them in the league today.

Boston I have no idea on earth how you could even feel comfortable projecting a ceiling for them given how much turmoil their roster has seen over the past few seasons.

As far as all those teams I mentioned to back and look at their playoff performances. Each has a very good argument for being the best defensive in the league in the given season.

Unless of course by “ceiling” you just mean “points per 100 in the regular season” which it seems like all that most in this thread are concerned with.

By ceiling I mean best performances, Houston can't do that. Using a small sample of 1 playoff series vs a matchup, when OKC had Melo last year and now doesn't and Houston now lost personnel makes no sense. Houston has real issues with depth and their guard rotation as well as covering Harden. Boston's been consistently better and held well last year in the postseason.

If "ceiling" means they can have a random game better than average sure, but other teams can have better games than them on average, on any night, and more consistently. You're projecting off no real data based off a team that no longer exists and ignoring changes on the other teams too.

Just using this year, and just looking at "elite" games defensively (ballpark a better than 100 D rating for a game), Houston has 6 such games. That ranks 27th in the NBA. They're not elite by any measure, there's just no data showing it. They're not last year's team. And if you wanted data on this year's team, they're the 10th best team defending GSW so far:

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&OpponentTeamID=1610612744

You're just projecting off of last year when age and personnel have effected both Houston and every other NBA team.

[Young_Star11]

There is no other player in the NBA who needs to win his first title more for his legacy than CP3.

If there is, it's probably his teammate Harden.

It was cruel how injury denied him his best opportunity last season.

He's not getting any younger, this year might be it.

[Dr Spaceman]

But they can't even reach the level of the best defenses in the NBA today. Their ceiling isn't as high as OKC, or Utah, or Boston. It's closer to Denver who's pretty average.

Edit: Also I don't think the 18 Warriors were an all time defense at all. The 13 Heat maybe, and the others not really either. Like 08 Boston is an all time defense.

I don’t really know what you mean by “ceiling” but clearly it’s not the same thing as me. Those three teams you mentioned have been very consistent solid defenses, better than the Rockets so far this RS for sure, but I haven’t seen any of them shut down teams the way Houston has especially in the playoffs.

I mean we saw OKC and HOU go against the exact same Jazz team last year and the Jazz hung 108 ORTG on the Thunder and 101 on the Rockets. I know they had success pulling the ball out against Melo but if that was all it was they could’ve tried the same against Harden. Melo alone is not a -7 defensive player by himself.

Utah has real, repeatable issues guarding strong pick and roll guards in the postseason and have had these issues for years and will as long as Gobert is the key piece. Paul averaged 25 against them in 17 with the Clips and 25 against them in 18 with the Rockets. Curry averaged 25 on 68% true shooting in a sweep. Granted these are tough, tough covers but Gobert consistently has real issues in pick and roll coverage against quick shooting guards which, ya know, there’s a lot of them in the league today.

Boston I have no idea on earth how you could even feel comfortable projecting a ceiling for them given how much turmoil their roster has seen over the past few seasons.

As far as all those teams I mentioned to back and look at their playoff performances. Each has a very good argument for being the best defensive in the league in the given season.

Unless of course by “ceiling” you just mean “points per 100 in the regular season” which it seems like all that most in this thread are concerned with.

By ceiling I mean best performances, Houston can't do that. Using a small sample of 1 playoff series vs a matchup, when OKC had Melo last year and now doesn't and Houston now lost personnel makes no sense. Houston has real issues with depth and their guard rotation as well as covering Harden. Boston's been consistently better and held well last year in the postseason.

If "ceiling" means they can have a random game better than average sure, but other teams can have better games than them on average, on any night, and more consistently. You're projecting off no real data based off a team that no longer exists and ignoring changes on the other teams too.

Just using this year, and just looking at "elite" games defensively (ballpark a better than 100 D rating for a game), Houston has 6 such games. That ranks 27th in the NBA. They're not elite by any measure, there's just no data showing it. They're not last year's team. And if you wanted data on this year's team, they're the 10th best team defending GSW so far:

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&OpponentTeamID=1610612744

You're just projecting off of last year when age and personnel have effected both Houston and every other NBA team.

I mean the qualitative difference between HOU and OKC should be pretty obvious after last night, no? First three possesssions: GSW open three, GSW open three, Iggy dunk after slipping a pin down. OKC puts so much pressure on their wings to get over 3-4 screens in a possession because their frontline lacks the athleticism/intelligence and the wings just can’t do it. GSW had a 40 point first quarter.

This is what I mean by process, it’s shot quality. HOU did not have a good result in terms of ORTG but it’s because of Cousins kicking the crap out of Capela in the post. He’s talented enough to do it, but you still are okay with GSW getting that shot 10/10 times because it means Curry isn’t popping off for three. Curry did not get open against HOU, but I actually lost track of how many times he got loose last night.

[eminence]

'Gobert has real issues with CP3/Curry' - Gobert sprained his knee seconds into the Clippers series. And Utah was like a -5 defense last playoffs.

'OKC/HOU played the same Jazz squad last season' - Minus one starting PG.

[bondom34]

I don’t really know what you mean by “ceiling” but clearly it’s not the same thing as me. Those three teams you mentioned have been very consistent solid defenses, better than the Rockets so far this RS for sure, but I haven’t seen any of them shut down teams the way Houston has especially in the playoffs.

I mean we saw OKC and HOU go against the exact same Jazz team last year and the Jazz hung 108 ORTG on the Thunder and 101 on the Rockets. I know they had success pulling the ball out against Melo but if that was all it was they could’ve tried the same against Harden. Melo alone is not a -7 defensive player by himself.

Utah has real, repeatable issues guarding strong pick and roll guards in the postseason and have had these issues for years and will as long as Gobert is the key piece. Paul averaged 25 against them in 17 with the Clips and 25 against them in 18 with the Rockets. Curry averaged 25 on 68% true shooting in a sweep. Granted these are tough, tough covers but Gobert consistently has real issues in pick and roll coverage against quick shooting guards which, ya know, there’s a lot of them in the league today.

Boston I have no idea on earth how you could even feel comfortable projecting a ceiling for them given how much turmoil their roster has seen over the past few seasons.

As far as all those teams I mentioned to back and look at their playoff performances. Each has a very good argument for being the best defensive in the league in the given season.

Unless of course by “ceiling” you just mean “points per 100 in the regular season” which it seems like all that most in this thread are concerned with.

By ceiling I mean best performances, Houston can't do that. Using a small sample of 1 playoff series vs a matchup, when OKC had Melo last year and now doesn't and Houston now lost personnel makes no sense. Houston has real issues with depth and their guard rotation as well as covering Harden. Boston's been consistently better and held well last year in the postseason.

If "ceiling" means they can have a random game better than average sure, but other teams can have better games than them on average, on any night, and more consistently. You're projecting off no real data based off a team that no longer exists and ignoring changes on the other teams too.

Just using this year, and just looking at "elite" games defensively (ballpark a better than 100 D rating for a game), Houston has 6 such games. That ranks 27th in the NBA. They're not elite by any measure, there's just no data showing it. They're not last year's team. And if you wanted data on this year's team, they're the 10th best team defending GSW so far:

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&OpponentTeamID=1610612744

You're just projecting off of last year when age and personnel have effected both Houston and every other NBA team.

I mean the qualitative difference between HOU and OKC should be pretty obvious after last night, no? First three possesssions: GSW open three, GSW open three, Iggy dunk after slipping a pin down. OKC puts so much pressure on their wings to get over 3-4 screens in a possession because their frontline lacks the athleticism/intelligence and the wings just can’t do it. GSW had a 40 point first quarter.

This is what I mean by process, it’s shot quality. HOU did not have a good result in terms of ORTG but it’s because of Cousins kicking the crap out of Capela in the post. He’s talented enough to do it, but you still are okay with GSW getting that shot 10/10 times because it means Curry isn’t popping off for three. Curry did not get open against HOU, but I actually lost track of how many times he got loose last night.

You're now using a one game sample when OKC held GSW to a 99 O rating their first 3 matchups. You're better than this.

Doc, you can't seriously say these things when you've gone from a full season last year, with a different team, that showed more promise consistently, to a new team that's shown less with a smaller sample (now going on 11-12 games), and now shrinking that down to a single game! I know you're going to say it's not about one game, but it is because otherwise you'd not have noted that after GSW's offense was held down much better through 3 meetings than it was vs Houston, while they still have a worse ORtg vs Boston, OKC, Milwaukee, Toronto, Utah, and Philly than vs Houston in a larger sample. There's just increasingly smaller samples being used and you're better than that.

[bondom34]

'Gobert has real issues with CP3/Curry' - Gobert sprained his knee seconds into the Clippers series. And Utah was like a -5 defense last playoffs.

'OKC/HOU played the same Jazz squad last season' - Minus one starting PG.

And plus one Melo.

[thekdog34]

There is no other player in the NBA who needs to win his first title more for his legacy than CP3.

If there is, it's probably his teammate Harden.

It was cruel how injury denied him his best opportunity last season.

He's not getting any younger, this year might be it.

They still had a chance, but Harden was pretty terrible in games 6 and 7.

[Lost92Bricks]

'Gobert has real issues with CP3/Curry' - Gobert sprained his knee seconds into the Clippers series. And Utah was like a -5 defense last playoffs.

'OKC/HOU played the same Jazz squad last season' - Minus one starting PG.

The Rockets completely exploited him in the playoffs last year. Not only CP and Harden, but he was getting outplayed by Clint as well. Not a good series for him.

[eminence]

'Gobert has real issues with CP3/Curry' - Gobert sprained his knee seconds into the Clippers series. And Utah was like a -5 defense last playoffs.

'OKC/HOU played the same Jazz squad last season' - Minus one starting PG.

The Rockets completely exploited him in the playoffs last year. Not only CP and Harden, but he was getting outplayed by Clint as well. Not a good series for him.

What would the Jazz have needed to do to not be 'completely exploited' in terms of Houston's offensive success? Eg if they had held Houston to 5 fewer ppg would that have been a success?

I'm interested in the standard here.

[ShotCreator]

They look good. Danuel House is a good NBA player who should start.


Harden should rest with Paul being healthy again.

[bondom34]

Yeah they're easily 2nd best in the west. I disagree on the defensive ceiling thing but but far they're clear the field.