Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[nate33]

I'm looking around for value in the 2019 free agency class and I recall something Zach Lowe discussed in a podcast a while ago:

The Second Draft.

Basically, sometimes you can find pretty good values on guys coming off their rookie deals, who appeared to be busts on their old team. There are several reasons. First of all, some guys aren't really THAT bad but they are perceived to be bad because they're disappointing relative to their draft position. Some guys get stuck in a bad situation and never really get a chance. And finally, some guys are simply late bloomers and they don't get their act together until their 5th NBA season after finally realizing that the easy money is gone.

A couple examples of recent "Second Draft" successes are:

Nerlens Noel - currently on a $1.7M deal and putting up great per-minute stats in OKC
Noah Vonleh - earning the vet minimum in NY but should end up playing 2000 minutes.
Elfrid Payton - being paid $3M to be a serviceable starter in New Orleans
Julius Randle - putting up dominant numbers in Davis' absence on an $8.6M contract
Jeremy Lamb - making $8M a year in Charlotte to be an above average starting SG

I'm checking out the 2015 draft class and Qualifying Offer guys from the 2014 draft class to see if anyone looks interesting.

Possible targets are:
Rodney Hood - playing on his QO for Portland. 22 mpg with a WS/48 of .092.
Trey Lyles - buried in Denver's deep roster. Last year he played 1400 minutes and posted a PER of 17.9 and a WS/48 of .135
Sam Dekker - obviously

Some longshot gambles could include Emmanuel Mudiay or Stanley Johnson, but both would be wild bets on their pedigree, not on anything they have actually shown on the basketball court.

[doclinkin]

I'm looking around for value in the 2019 free agency class and I recall something Zach Lowe discussed in a podcast a while ago:

The Second Draft.

Basically, sometimes you can find pretty good values on guys coming off their rookie deals, who appeared to be busts on their old team. There are several reasons. First of all, some guys aren't really THAT bad but they are perceived to be bad because they're disappointing relative to their draft position. Some guys get stuck in a bad situation and never really get a chance. And finally, some guys are simply late bloomers and they don't get their act together until their 5th NBA season after finally realizing that the easy money is gone.
...
Noah Vonleh - earning the vet minimum in NY but should end up playing 2000 minutes.
Jeremy Lamb - making $8M a year in Charlotte to be an above average starting SG
...
I'm checking out the 2015 draft class and Qualifying Offer guys from the 2014 draft class to see if anyone looks interesting.

Possible targets are:
Rodney Hood - playing on his QO for Portland. 22 mpg with a WS/48 of .092.
Trey Lyles - buried in Denver's deep roster. Last year he played 1400 minutes and posted a PER of 17.9 and a WS/48 of .135
Sam Dekker - obviously

This guy Jabari Parker from the 2014 draft is playing pretty well. He had a couple down years with injury issues and motivation but maybe he has turned a corner and is re-energized...

From that draft (2015) I liked Richaun Holmes. He was drafted late and played behind Embiid and Jahlil Okafor, so he never got quite the burn I thought his numbers suggested, then Phoenix drafted a Big number one overall too, so again he may be squeezed out. And I think that is an area where you can find gold. Look for productive players on the bench behind allstars or lottery picks. They may be more likely to be overlooked.

I had hopes he would develop his outside shot, but it hasn't happened. Still I thought his run jump athleticism would've been a good fit as a rim runner playing next to John.

oh and I like Vonleh and Lamb. When we were looking for trade options those were two I'd tabbed.

[payitforward]

I'm looking around for value in the 2019 free agency class and I recall something Zach Lowe discussed in a podcast a while ago:

The Second Draft.

Basically, sometimes you can find pretty good values on guys coming off their rookie deals, who appeared to be busts on their old team. There are several reasons. First of all, some guys aren't really THAT bad but they are perceived to be bad because they're disappointing relative to their draft position. Some guys get stuck in a bad situation and never really get a chance. And finally, some guys are simply late bloomers and they don't get their act together until their 5th NBA season after finally realizing that the easy money is gone.

A couple examples of recent "Second Draft" successes are:

Nerlens Noel - currently on a $1.7M deal and putting up great per-minute stats in OKC
Noah Vonleh - earning the vet minimum in NY but should end up playing 2000 minutes.
Elfrid Payton - being paid $3M to be a serviceable starter in New Orleans
Julius Randle - putting up dominant numbers in Davis' absence on an $8.6M contract
Jeremy Lamb - making $8M a year in Charlotte to be an above average starting SG

I'm checking out the 2015 draft class and Qualifying Offer guys from the 2014 draft class to see if anyone looks interesting.

Possible targets are:
Rodney Hood - playing on his QO for Portland. 22 mpg with a WS/48 of .092.
Trey Lyles - buried in Denver's deep roster. Last year he played 1400 minutes and posted a PER of 17.9 and a WS/48 of .135
Sam Dekker - obviously

Some longshot gambles could include Emmanuel Mudiay or Stanley Johnson, but both would be wild bets on their pedigree, not on anything they have actually shown on the basketball court.

Very cool, nate! Lyle's playing as much this year as he did last year, but he's not playing nearly as well.

Here's my list of guys sort of like that (some are a different angle on gamble but in a similar direction):

Noel
Khem Birch
Boban Marjanovic
Salah Mejri
Kenneth Faried
Ekpe Udoh
Kevon Looney
Cheick Diallo
Richaun Holmes
T.J. McConnell
Danuel House
Sindarius Thornwell

Not all of these guys are expiring but many are. Some have been big surprises to me (House above all -- I didn't think he was any kind of NBA player when he was in SL with us a couple of years ago, but he actually produced pretty well with Houston).

[Ruzious]

Indiana has to find money to sign an entire team aside from Turner and Dipo (and McDermott). Domantas gets 25 minutes a game. Someone is bound to offer him more money and minutes and opportunity in free agency. He may be dangled to see what they can get for him before then. But I don't see what we could offer or swap.

Yeah shame about Denzel, but in his 2 years before that and 4 years of school he improved in every significant category even as his usage steadily increased. Those are the players that will make you proud to have on your squad.

If we continue to slip in the lottery and get to a ppint where Hunter is no longer available I would honestly consider a pick swap with Indy for Sabonis. I would try to get them to take Howard as well

Indiana trades: Sabonis + Indy pick #23
Wasington trades: Howard + Was pick #10

F ??? / Dekker / Kabengele (R)
F ??? / T. Brown Jr.
C Sabonis / Bryant / Mahinmi
G Beal / ???
G Satoransky / ??? / Wall

Sabonis is a fantasy. If Sabonis agrees to a contract that we consider reasonable enough that we want to trade for him, it is going to be reasonable enough for Indy to keep him.

Basically, if Sabonis wants an $18M deal, Indy is going to keep him. If Sabonis wants a max contract of $27M and Indy starts shopping him, we wouldn't be able to afford him.

Yeah, we're not getting Sabois for the 10th pick. His stats are outstanding, and he's an improving defender. Am I wrong in saying Indy should be playing him and Turner together?

[nate33]

Very cool, nate! Lyle's playing as much this year as he did last year, but he's not playing nearly as well.

Here's my list of guys sort of like that (some are a different angle on gamble but in a similar direction):

Noel
Khem Birch
Boban Marjanovic
Salah Mejri
Kenneth Faried
Ekpe Udoh
Kevon Looney
Cheick Diallo
Richaun Holmes
T.J. McConnell
Danuel House
Sindarius Thornwell

Not all of these guys are expiring but many are. Some have been big surprises to me (House above all -- I didn't think he was any kind of NBA player when he was in SL with us a couple of years ago, but he actually produced pretty well with Houston).

Most of those guys are backup centers or non-shooting PF's posting nice rebounding numbers in limited minutes. While I recognize that they look great on many of the advanced metrics because of their high rebound per possession numbers, there's a reason that very few of them get many minutes. You just can't run a functioning NBA offense without at least 4 shooters these days, and preferably 5. Their individual numbers may look good, but the affect on their teammates is detrimental due to their inability to space the floor.

That said, non-shooting centers can still work if you have floor spacing around them, and we do. Khem Birch would be a nice vet minimum signing if Howard ended up departing. It would be useful to have a defense/rebounder type to augment Bryant's polished scoring but so-so defense.

I'm not sure what you see in Sindarius Thornwell. He's a SG that can't handle the ball (A/TO ratio well below 1) and can't finish in traffic (2P% is a ghastly .394). And he got even worse in his second year.

Daniel House might be an interesting target as cheap forward depth.

[nate33]

Any particular players you'd be looking to get with those exceptions? I've noticed it's a lot easier to find players you don't like vs players you do like.

Marco Belinelli
Yogi Ferrell
Frank Mason III
Skal Labissierre
Mo Harkless
Jonathon Simmons
D.J. Augustin
Lance Thomas + incentive from NY (Dotson or a pick?)
E'Twaun Moore
Christian Wood
George Hill
James Johnson
Sindarius Thornwell
Domantas Sabonis - hes likely available but he'll cost.
Damian Jones
Thon Maker
Langston Galloway
Kris Dunn
Denzel Valentine
Willy Hernangomez
Shabazz Napier
Jaylen Brown - same as Sabonis
Taurean Prince
De'Andre Bembry
Alex Len

All of these guys have one year left on their deal.

For us to use our TPE's to acquire players from other teams, we must first appeal to their motivations to moving such a player. We have no 2nd round picks, so we can't offer a pick as an incentive. Therefore, the only advantage we are offering is salary savings. The teams who have the rights to those players must need salary savings more than they need the player. Looking at the list of players you produced, I see very few examples were such a deal would make sense from the other team's perspective.

Marco Belinelli - Good player on good contract. Why would San Antonio give him to us?
Yogi Ferrell - Good player on good contract. Why would Sacramento give him to us?
Frank Mason III - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys. (roster spots have to be filled by someone)
Skal Labissierre - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
Mo Harkless - His salary is bigger than our biggest TPE
Jonathon Simmons - $5.7M for a guy with a PER of 7 and an ORtg of 91? Maybe if they give us a pick.
D.J. Augustin - I suppose if Orlando drafts a PG this might interest them. But do they need luxtax room?
Lance Thomas + incentive from NY (Dotson or a pick?) - Lance's salary is only $1M guaranteed. He will be cut.
E'Twaun Moore - Good player on good contract. Why would New Orleans give him to us?
Christian Wood - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
George Hill - He will be cut for the cap savings. Last year is only $1M guaranteed.
James Johnson - His salary is bigger than our biggest TPE
Sindarius Thornwell - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
Domantas Sabonis - hes likely available but he'll cost.
Damian Jones - That could work. Not sure if GSW is interested. The savings would be very small for them.
Thon Maker - He's not very good. I think we could do just as well filling the role with a vet minimum signing.
Langston Galloway - $7M for a backup PG? Not unless they're giving us a pick.
Kris Dunn - Why would Chicago do this? They don't need the cap room.
Denzel Valentine - Why would Chicago do this? They don't need the cap room.
Willy Hernangomez - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
Shabazz Napier - What is the incentive for Brooklyn? Their savings would be negligible.
Jaylen Brown - He is a legit asset. Boston isn't giving him away for the TPE
Taurean Prince - He is a legit asset. Atlanta isn't giving him away for the TPE
De'Andre Bembry - Is he better than what we could find with the vet minimum? Also Atlanta doesn't need cap savings.
Alex Len - Why is Atlanta dumping a cheap, young, somewhat useful player for cap savings?

Of all the names on the list, the only ones that seem even remotely beneficial for both teams is Damian Jones if Golden State is really trying to dump every bit of non-essential salary they can. I'd also be interested in using our TPE to absorb a bad contract like Jonathon Simmons, but I figure we'll have better negotiating leverage at the Trade Deadline.

[Ruzious]

One of Dat's targets (and a fave of Pif's and mine) just became available as the Bucks waived Christian Wood to make room for Tim Frazier - who they picked up because of Brogdon's injury. I'd pick him up, sign him to an extension, and probably cut Randle.

[nate33]

One of Dat's targets (and a fave of Pif's and mine) just became available as the Bucks waived Christian Wood to make room for Tim Frazier - who they picked up because of Brogdon's injury. I'd pick him up, sign him to an extension, and probably cut Randle.

Yup. I'd snap up Wood in a heartbeat. He was incredible in preseason but is buried behind way too much depth in Milwaukee.

Rather than cutting Randle, I'd cut Wesley Johnson. We don't have enough guards on the roster to cut Randle. Cutting Johnson would simply mean more minutes for Dekker and Brown, which is a good thing for now and the future.

[doclinkin]

Yeah, we're not getting Sabois for the 10th pick. His stats are outstanding, and he's an improving defender. Am I wrong in saying Indy should be playing him and Turner together?

I think they should. But that's been my jeremiad for a while now. Teams are scared of perimeter switching and won't play bigs even despite the rebound advantage. I think there are missed opportunities in this. That the slight uptick in 3fg% may be offset if you have interior rebounding and efficient scoring inside that provokes fouls and free throws. Teams are starting to realize this is the only counter they've got to the high efficient outside gunning: load up on rebounding on both ends and from all positions on the floor. The Bucks have the best record in the league in part because of this. But. On the other hand. WE just eked out a win over a twin towers team in Memphis, with our own efficient scoring from the outside. So. I dunno. Cudgel vs dagger. Strong vs quick.

[Dat2U]

Any particular players you'd be looking to get with those exceptions? I've noticed it's a lot easier to find players you don't like vs players you do like.

Marco Belinelli
Yogi Ferrell
Frank Mason III
Skal Labissierre
Mo Harkless
Jonathon Simmons
D.J. Augustin
Lance Thomas + incentive from NY (Dotson or a pick?)
E'Twaun Moore
Christian Wood
George Hill
James Johnson
Sindarius Thornwell
Domantas Sabonis - hes likely available but he'll cost.
Damian Jones
Thon Maker
Langston Galloway
Kris Dunn
Denzel Valentine
Willy Hernangomez
Shabazz Napier
Jaylen Brown - same as Sabonis
Taurean Prince
De'Andre Bembry
Alex Len

All of these guys have one year left on their deal.

For us to use our TPE's to acquire players from other teams, we must first appeal to their motivations to moving such a player. We have no 2nd round picks, so we can't offer a pick as an incentive. Therefore, the only advantage we are offering is salary savings. The teams who have the rights to those players must need salary savings more than they need the player. Looking at the list of players you produced, I see very few examples were such a deal would make sense from the other team's perspective.

Marco Belinelli - Good player on good contract. Why would San Antonio give him to us?
Yogi Ferrell - Good player on good contract. Why would Sacramento give him to us?
Frank Mason III - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys. (roster spots have to be filled by someone)
Skal Labissierre - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
Mo Harkless - His salary is bigger than our biggest TPE
Jonathon Simmons - $5.7M for a guy with a PER of 7 and an ORtg of 91? Maybe if they give us a pick.
D.J. Augustin - I suppose if Orlando drafts a PG this might interest them. But do they need luxtax room?
Lance Thomas + incentive from NY (Dotson or a pick?) - Lance's salary is only $1M guaranteed. He will be cut.
E'Twaun Moore - Good player on good contract. Why would New Orleans give him to us?
Christian Wood - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
George Hill - He will be cut for the cap savings. Last year is only $1M guaranteed.
James Johnson - His salary is bigger than our biggest TPE
Sindarius Thornwell - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
Domantas Sabonis - hes likely available but he'll cost.
Damian Jones - That could work. Not sure if GSW is interested. The savings would be very small for them.
Thon Maker - He's not very good. I think we could do just as well filling the role with a vet minimum signing.
Langston Galloway - $7M for a backup PG? Not unless they're giving us a pick.
Kris Dunn - Why would Chicago do this? They don't need the cap room.
Denzel Valentine - Why would Chicago do this? They don't need the cap room.
Willy Hernangomez - Teams don't save money by dumping vet min guys.
Shabazz Napier - What is the incentive for Brooklyn? Their savings would be negligible.
Jaylen Brown - He is a legit asset. Boston isn't giving him away for the TPE
Taurean Prince - He is a legit asset. Atlanta isn't giving him away for the TPE
De'Andre Bembry - Is he better than what we could find with the vet minimum? Also Atlanta doesn't need cap savings.
Alex Len - Why is Atlanta dumping a cheap, young, somewhat useful player for cap savings?

Of all the names on the list, the only ones that seem even remotely beneficial for both teams is Damian Jones if Golden State is really trying to dump every bit of non-essential salary they can. I'd also be interested in using our TPE to absorb a bad contract like Jonathon Simmons, but I figure we'll have better negotiating leverage at the Trade Deadline.

Good points on certain guys but teams move on from players all the time. Especially if they are looking for an upgrade or a guy is not a key part of the rotation.

A guy like Len may be okay in Atlanta but is he really part of that teams plans? I don't think so. Atlanta will probably be looking for an upgrade with Omari Spellman the 1st big off the bench. Where does that leave Len?

Atlanta was also looking to move Prince before the deadline. Why? They may not want to extend him. His value is limited considering his rookie status. The advantage we'd have over some other teams is we can just absorb his salary.

Obviously a guy like Brown would require an asset or two in return although I'd argue his value is also limited by his impending contract status.

Dunn is done in Chicago. They have little use for Valentine either. Skal, Hernangomez & Bembry would all be likely candidates to be thrown-in or dumped in another trade deal this offseason. Teams dump small salaries all the time.

Sometimes it's just about creating a roster spot. Why hold on to that 4th year 3rd string F when you have multiple draft picks and are likely to draft one?

Sabonis is interesting. Indiana realizes they can't play them together. They've wanted to and have experimented with it but neither Sabonis or Turner is really nimble enough on the defensive end to not get exposed. Both also function better as Cs on the offensive end.

Sabonis' value is up in air to me. How many teams really need a C and would give up assets knowing Sabonis will also be due for a significant raise soon?

[Dat2U]

Yeah, we're not getting Sabois for the 10th pick. His stats are outstanding, and he's an improving defender. Am I wrong in saying Indy should be playing him and Turner together?

I think they should. But that's been my jeremiad for a while now. Teams are scared of perimeter switching and won't play bigs even despite the rebound advantage. I think there are missed opportunities in this. That the slight uptick in 3fg% may be offset if you have interior rebounding and efficient scoring inside that provokes fouls and free throws. Teams are starting to realize this is the only counter they've got to the high efficient outside gunning: load up on rebounding on both ends and from all positions on the floor. The Bucks have the best record in the league in part because of this. But. On the other hand. WE just eked out a win over a twin towers team in Memphis, with our own efficient scoring from the outside. So. I dunno. Cudgel vs dagger. Strong vs quick.

Milwaukee has Giannis who can do everything. Neither Turner or Sabonis can defend on the perimeter. It's just not a good pairing defensively.

[Dat2U]

One of Dat's targets (and a fave of Pif's and mine) just became available as the Bucks waived Christian Wood to make room for Tim Frazier - who they picked up because of Brogdon's injury. I'd pick him up, sign him to an extension, and probably cut Randle.

Yup. I'd snap up Wood in a heartbeat. He was incredible in preseason but is buried behind way too much depth in Milwaukee.

Rather than cutting Randle, I'd cut Wesley Johnson. We don't have enough guards on the roster to cut Randle. Cutting Johnson would simply mean more minutes for Dekker and Brown, which is a good thing for now and the future.

Can they even afford to sign another guy right now and still be under the luxury tax?

[nate33]

I've been thinking about Dat2U's overarching point that the Wizards basically suck so why should we bring back anybody except Beal and maybe Bryant, Sato and Dekker. I have to disagree.

The Wizards do basically suck right now, but the problem isn't the core players on the roster (Beal, Sato, Ariza, Green, Bryant, Parker, Portis, Dekker, Brown). Those guys collectively are decent. The problem is that our team has an effective payroll $40M less than everyone else because of the injuries (or ineptitude) of Wall, Howard and Mahinmi. Our core team right now is basically playing .500 ball. If you could take that roster and add $40M of good players to it, that's a pretty good team and we wouldn't be discussing how bad everyone sucks.

So I reject the notion that everyone must go because we suck. The fact is, if you replace everyone not named Beal with a bunch of other random free agents signed this offseason, chances are, the team would be just as bad, if not worse. You can't be good with an effective payroll of $85M when everyone else gets to spend $125M - particularly when you don't have a single starting-caliber player on a rookie scale contract.

I have no problems bringing back most of the guys on the roster. I would not bring back Portis because I think his cost will exceed his actual productivity, but I'd be okay with bringing back everyone else (Sato, Bryant, Parker, Ariza, Green, Dekker) at reasonable prices. And by reasonable, I don't mean ludicrously low, not-gonna-happen contracts like Parker at $5M a year or Ariza at the vet minimum. I'd be open to retaining Parker for $12M (on a 2+1 contract) and Ariza for $7M (on a 1-year deal) for example.

I'd also be open to replacing those guys with other guys. I'm just saying that everyone does not NEED to be replaced. In some cases, the guys we have may actually be the best guys we can find for the money.

[nate33]

One of Dat's targets (and a fave of Pif's and mine) just became available as the Bucks waived Christian Wood to make room for Tim Frazier - who they picked up because of Brogdon's injury. I'd pick him up, sign him to an extension, and probably cut Randle.

Yup. I'd snap up Wood in a heartbeat. He was incredible in preseason but is buried behind way too much depth in Milwaukee.

Rather than cutting Randle, I'd cut Wesley Johnson. We don't have enough guards on the roster to cut Randle. Cutting Johnson would simply mean more minutes for Dekker and Brown, which is a good thing for now and the future.

Can they even afford to sign another guy right now and still be under the luxury tax?

Good question.

[Dat2U]

I've been thinking about Dat2U's overarching point that the Wizards basically suck so why should we bring back anybody except Beal and maybe Bryant, Sato and Dekker. I have to disagree.

The Wizards do basically suck right now, but the problem isn't the core players on the roster (Beal, Sato, Ariza, Green, Bryant, Parker, Portis, Dekker, Brown). Those guys collectively are decent. The problem is that our team has an effective payroll $40M less than everyone else because of the injuries (or ineptitude) of Wall, Howard and Mahinmi. Our core team right now is basically playing .500 ball. If you could take that roster and add $40M of good players to it, that's a pretty good team and we wouldn't be discussing how bad everyone sucks.

So I reject the notion that everyone must go because we suck. The fact is, if you replace everyone not named Beal with a bunch of other random free agents signed this offseason, chances are, the team would be just as bad, if not worse. You can't be good with an effective payroll of $85M when everyone else gets to spend $125M - particularly when you don't have a single starting-caliber player on a rookie scale contract.

I have no problems bringing back most of the guys on the roster. I would not bring back Portis because I think his cost will exceed his actual productivity, but I'd be okay with bringing back everyone else (Sato, Bryant, Parker, Ariza, Green, Dekker) at reasonable prices. And by reasonable, I don't mean ludicrously low, not-gonna-happen contracts like Parker at $5M a year or Ariza at the vet minimum. I'd be open to retaining Parker for $12M (on a 2+1 contract) and Ariza for $7M (on a 1-year deal) for example.

My counterargument to this is

A. Look at our schedule. Look who've beaten.
B. Look at Bradley Beal's minutes.
C. Look at how bad Ariza is playing. Why would you want to keep him?

Just a hunch. I think Green may go elsewhere.

Parker is going to the highest bidder. Is this a contract run of his or has he really turned over a new leaf the last 16 games?

The first 222 games of his career have me really skeptical.

D. What's the upside in all of this?

The Wall we know is dunzo. He could still possibly be a useful player but he's now making the super max.

Beal is desperately trying to qualify for the supermax.

This is going to become the basketball equivalent of a dead end for the next four years and beyond.

[nate33]

I've been thinking about Dat2U's overarching point that the Wizards basically suck so why should we bring back anybody except Beal and maybe Bryant, Sato and Dekker. I have to disagree.

The Wizards do basically suck right now, but the problem isn't the core players on the roster (Beal, Sato, Ariza, Green, Bryant, Parker, Portis, Dekker, Brown). Those guys collectively are decent. The problem is that our team has an effective payroll $40M less than everyone else because of the injuries (or ineptitude) of Wall, Howard and Mahinmi. Our core team right now is basically playing .500 ball. If you could take that roster and add $40M of good players to it, that's a pretty good team and we wouldn't be discussing how bad everyone sucks.

So I reject the notion that everyone must go because we suck. The fact is, if you replace everyone not named Beal with a bunch of other random free agents signed this offseason, chances are, the team would be just as bad, if not worse. You can't be good with an effective payroll of $85M when everyone else gets to spend $125M - particularly when you don't have a single starting-caliber player on a rookie scale contract.

I have no problems bringing back most of the guys on the roster. I would not bring back Portis because I think his cost will exceed his actual productivity, but I'd be okay with bringing back everyone else (Sato, Bryant, Parker, Ariza, Green, Dekker) at reasonable prices. And by reasonable, I don't mean ludicrously low, not-gonna-happen contracts like Parker at $5M a year or Ariza at the vet minimum. I'd be open to retaining Parker for $12M (on a 2+1 contract) and Ariza for $7M (on a 1-year deal) for example.

My counterargument to this is

A. Look at our schedule. Look who've beaten.
B. Look at Bradley Beal's minutes.
C. Look at how bad Ariza is playing. Why would you want to keep him?

Just a hunch. I think Green may go elsewhere.

Parker is going to the highest bidder. Is this a contract run of his or has he really turned over a new leaf the last 16 games?

The first 222 games of his career have me really skeptical.

D. What's the upside in all of this?

The Wall we know is dunzo. He could still possibly be a useful player but he's now making the super max.

Beal is desperately trying to qualify for the supermax.

This is going to become the basketball equivalent of a dead end for the next four years and beyond.

A. I realize we've beaten bad teams and can't beat good teams. I've explained why. Changing out our guys for whatever players we can find in free agency or via TPE trades isn't likely to change that. It's the Underpants Gnome theory of roster management. 1. Dump our mediocre players. 2 ? 3. Championship

B. Yes, his minutes should come down. We should definitely add a viable 3rd guard, or play Brown more. Fire Brooks if necessary. But I don't think Beal playing 35 minutes instead of 39 would suddenly make our team a cellar dweller.

C. Fair point on Ariza. Bringing him back is not my first choice. I'd definitely explore other options. But, after the draft and after resigning Sato, Bryant and Parker; if we look around and see that we've got no credible small forwards on the roster other than Brown, I'd at least consider Ariza. He's no longer that great of a player, but he is serviceable and by a accounts, a good veteran mentor. Whether we keep him or not would depend on the other options available. The one point in favor of retaining Ariza over other options is that we will have the Bird Rights to do it.

[closg00]

What a shame, no room for Christian Wood, one more year of Mahinmi. SMH

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[nate33]

What a shame, no room for Christian Wood, one more year of Mahinmi. SMH

Watch on YouTube

To be fair, the fact that we aren't moving to sign him this instant isn't necessarily an indication that the Wizards don't know what they're doing. We can sign him in the summer. He'll be available. I don't think there are a bunch of teams lining up to sign him immediately and then ink him to a long term deal.

[nate33]

What a shame, no room for Christian Wood, one more year of Mahinmi. SMH

To be fair, the fact that we aren't moving to sign him this instant isn't necessarily an indication that the Wizards don't know what they're doing. We can sign him in the summer. He'll be available. I don't think there are a bunch of teams lining up to sign him immediately and then ink him to a long term deal.

I take that back. I guess if someone claims Wood off of waivers, his existing contract continues to apply. That's a great deal. We should do it immediately.

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[payitforward]

Very cool, nate! Lyle's playing as much this year as he did last year, but he's not playing nearly as well.

Here's my list of guys sort of like that (some are a different angle on gamble but in a similar direction):

Noel
Khem Birch
Boban Marjanovic
Salah Mejri
Kenneth Faried
Ekpe Udoh
Kevon Looney
Cheick Diallo
Richaun Holmes
T.J. McConnell
Danuel House
Sindarius Thornwell

Not all of these guys are expiring but many are. Some have been big surprises to me (House above all -- I didn't think he was any kind of NBA player when he was in SL with us a couple of years ago, but he actually produced pretty well with Houston).

Most of those guys are backup centers or non-shooting PF's posting nice rebounding numbers in limited minutes. While I recognize that they look great on many of the advanced metrics because of their high rebound per possession numbers, there's a reason that very few of them get many minutes. You just can't run a functioning NBA offense without at least 4 shooters these days, and preferably 5. Their individual numbers may look good, but the affect on their teammates is detrimental due to their inability to space the floor.

That said, non-shooting centers can still work if you have floor spacing around them, and we do. Khem Birch would be a nice vet minimum signing if Howard ended up departing. It would be useful to have a defense/rebounder type to augment Bryant's polished scoring but so-so defense.

I'm not sure what you see in Sindarius Thornwell. He's a SG that can't handle the ball (A/TO ratio well below 1) and can't finish in traffic (2P% is a ghastly .394). And he got even worse in his second year.

Daniel House might be an interesting target as cheap forward depth.

Well... I wasn't thinking we should get all of them! Maybe not more than one of them. Or just not more than one per position. Noel would be the prime target of that kind, I guess -- the reason you had him on your list?

Just looked at Thornwell's numbers this year. You're right, he's not an NBA player. In college, his on-court smarts helped him be extremely effective. But that hasn't translated. Too bad.