Mavs & Cavs Draft Pick Watch

[Bob8]

Just more excuses. The chart speaks for itself. The higher Luka's usage, the worse he plays.

Because players in losing teams normally have great +\-? What would happen with Curry’s +\-, if they sold all starters except him? Yes context matters, but not here. Hate towards Luka is strong in this board. Interesting enough no one is talking about Trae in Mavs board.

Yet there's a Mav on the Hawks board talking Luka? Weird. TBH, I don't hate Luka in the least. I think he's a hell of a player....just not currently the transcendent, generational player that Mavs fans think he is. I think he has potential to get there, but isn't there yet. I like Trae more and think he's played better than Luka since around January 1 which is ~40 games, so enough of a sample size to matter.

You say context matters? I agree, but I find it funny that you don't give context to the beginning of the season when Luka was playing WITH other NBA players that have been good enough to make the playoffs in Jordan and Barnes while Trae was playing with other rookies and missing his best player in Collins and a scorer in Prince.

Where's that context? Suits your narrative to claim context now that Luka is struggling (efficiency wise) but to ignore it with Trae. I also wonder where is context when considering Luka has been a pro for 3 years ? No wonder he came into the NBA a more well rounded player that had very little adjustment to go through early on.

Context matters always, but I’m not bashing Trae and never had.
About Luka being professional before. All players from Europe were professional players before they came in Nba. Vast majority of them more years than Luka. There just aren’t any school leagues like in USA. And I never heard that players from Europe are better because they’re more ready. The narrative was, they’re bad because they’re playing against scrubs, who didn’t make it in Nba. And suddenly Euroleague is incredible environment for young players. Funny, don’t you think?

[High 5]

Because players in losing teams normally have great +\-? What would happen with Curry’s +\-, if they sold all starters except him? Yes context matters, but not here. Hate towards Luka is strong in this board. Interesting enough no one is talking about Trae in Mavs board.

Some people are going overboard with the Doncic criticism, but you can hardly blame them (to a point) when people like you took every opportunity to rub Doncic in their faces when Trae was struggling. Don't try to take the moral high ground now that Doncic is the one who can't shoot. And we all know you're going to rush over here to gloat if the Mavs luck out on lottery night. You're not fooling anyone.

[marco102]

Because players in losing teams normally have great +\-? What would happen with Curry’s +\-, if they sold all starters except him? Yes context matters, but not here. Hate towards Luka is strong in this board. Interesting enough no one is talking about Trae in Mavs board.

Yet there's a Mav on the Hawks board talking Luka? Weird. TBH, I don't hate Luka in the least. I think he's a hell of a player....just not currently the transcendent, generational player that Mavs fans think he is. I think he has potential to get there, but isn't there yet. I like Trae more and think he's played better than Luka since around January 1 which is ~40 games, so enough of a sample size to matter.

You say context matters? I agree, but I find it funny that you don't give context to the beginning of the season when Luka was playing WITH other NBA players that have been good enough to make the playoffs in Jordan and Barnes while Trae was playing with other rookies and missing his best player in Collins and a scorer in Prince.

Where's that context? Suits your narrative to claim context now that Luka is struggling (efficiency wise) but to ignore it with Trae. I also wonder where is context when considering Luka has been a pro for 3 years ? No wonder he came into the NBA a more well rounded player that had very little adjustment to go through early on.

Context matters always, but I’m not bashing Trae and never had.
About Luka being professional before. All players from Europe were professional players before they came in Nba. Vast majority of them more years than Luka. There just aren’t any school leagues like in USA. And I never heard that players from Europe are better because they’re more ready. The narrative was, they’re bad because they’re playing against scrubs, who didn’t make it in Nba. And suddenly Euroleague is incredible environment for young players. Funny, don’t you think?

Sigh, I hate to go this route, but I will. The reason both Trae and Luka are succeeding is because of the "freedom of movement" rule changes, which allows more skilled players to get to their spots a lot easier. In years past, Europeans were more skilled, but the more athletic defenders were allowed to do more defensively, which inhibited the more skilled less athletic players games.

I feel like if either were drafted in 2003 or even 2008, they would not have such successful rookie years because the adjustment to the NBA would be much harder.

[Bob8]

Because players in losing teams normally have great +\-? What would happen with Curry’s +\-, if they sold all starters except him? Yes context matters, but not here. Hate towards Luka is strong in this board. Interesting enough no one is talking about Trae in Mavs board.

Some people are going overboard with the Doncic criticism, but you can hardly blame them (to a point) when people like you took every opportunity to rub Doncic in their faces when Trae was struggling. Don't try to take the moral high ground now that Doncic is the one who can't shoot. And we all know you're going to rush over here to gloat if the Mavs luck out on lottery night. You're not fooling anyone.

I never started any conversation about Trae vs. Luka. I always just responded about claims being already made. Mostly with stats. I’m hardly being guilty of advanced stats that don’t like Trae.

[observer1995]

I’m not sure if it’s a majority agreement in the forum but Euroleague in comparison to AAU basketball based off what I know (which might be too little and might get shamed by others here) will help you better in being able to develop winning ability which is very valuable. Even if the Euro is a prodigy (and this is any case), they won’t play if they won’t play within the team on offense or try on defense, while in AAU, the prodigal type talents are more on the lines of allowed to do whatever they want. I’m not on board with the latter helping. AAU might have more raw talent than some teams in Euroleague (I’m really not buying that with the top leagues though, talking about lower tier leagues), just with younger players, but they might not be getting as good development.

Some Euroleague teams might not be very good but the highest leagues (and Liga ACB 100% would count as one of the higher leagues, if not the highest) have been said to be a tiny step down from the NBA. I have seen those arguments but was not on board with agreeing...it was ridiculous, but I was more lurking last summer.

[lethalweapon3]

Some back-of-napkin calculations (it's more of a paper towel) based on post-Lottery odds combos (#5 and #6 only)...

Neither #5 Nor #6 Move into Top 4: 36.36%
#5 Moves into Top 4, #6 Does Not: 26.44%
#6 Moves into Top 4, #5 Does Not: 21.54%
#5 AND #6 Move into Top 4: 15.66%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario A (Hawks at #5, Mavs at #6)

Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 62.80%
Mavs keep pick: 37.20%

Hawks stay or move down: 57.90%
Hawks move up: 42.10%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario B (Mavs at #5, Hawks at #6)

Mavs keep pick: 78.46%
Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 21.54%

Hawks stay or move down: 62.80%
Hawks move up: 37.20%


~lw3

I hesitate to question you, but how do you figure the Mavs would have a 78.46% chance to keep their pick at 5th? I'm pretty sure it's only 44.3%. 42.1% chance to move up + 2.2% to stay at 5th.

No, no, anything I do involving number-crunching on a Friday night is ALWAYS questionable!

Because the first part involved combinations of what would happen with #5 AND #6 only (the dual "either-or" scenarios of whether they'll move up into the Top 4, or not), the Hawks at #6 getting the Mavspick anyway would happen only if the Mavs at #5 (pre-lotto) had to move down, because the Hawks move up while Dallas doesn't.

The odds the #6 slot moves up to #4 (37.2%) and the odds that the #5 slot does not (100%, minus the 42.1% you noted), produces a combo scenario that I calculated at [(37.2)*(100-42.1)/100] = 21.54 (apologies to the significant-figure fans out there). That's the only of the four above situations ("#6 Moves into Top 4, #5 Does Not") under Scenario B where the Hawks get that pick, making the Mavs-keep-pick alternatives a summation of the other three situations (100-21.54) = 78.46.

But the fallacy with my myopic analysis is hiding in that 36.36% value (the "Neither #5 Nor #6 Move into Top 4" situation). That includes (1) the odds that there are no changes within the Top 4 (the #1 through #4 teams stay in the Top 4, via some combo, so no #5 or #6 movement)... AND, (2) the odds at least one team below the Hawks moves up, sending the Mavspick down below its Top-5 protection even without the Hawks moving up. The net effect on pick ownership wouldn't change under Scenario A if both picks moved down due to the Lottery results, but under Scenario B, it absolutely would.

I needed to break that down further, to allow for the odds that one or more teams in the #7 through #14 range bumped the #5 Mavspick down to a Hawks-friendly #6 or lower. I'm too lazy to do that today, but I trust that it would bring me right on back to around 56%, the 100% minus the 44.3% value you calculated by addition.

Assuming that's correct, then we're looking at merely an approximate seven-percentage-point differential improving Dallas' odds of keeping the pick, if the teams switch #5 and #6 spots between now the end of the season (37.2% under Scenario A; 44.3%, as you calculated under Scenario B). That's way less of a big deal than the more-than-doubly improved odds I calculated last night, so I'll take it!


~lw3

[Spud2nique]

Some back-of-napkin calculations (it's more of a paper towel) based on post-Lottery odds combos (#5 and #6 only)...

Neither #5 Nor #6 Move into Top 4: 36.36%
#5 Moves into Top 4, #6 Does Not: 26.44%
#6 Moves into Top 4, #5 Does Not: 21.54%
#5 AND #6 Move into Top 4: 15.66%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario A (Hawks at #5, Mavs at #6)

Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 62.80%
Mavs keep pick: 37.20%

Hawks stay or move down: 57.90%
Hawks move up: 42.10%

---

Pre-Lottery Scenario B (Mavs at #5, Hawks at #6)

Mavs keep pick: 78.46%
Mavs pick conveys to Hawks: 21.54%

Hawks stay or move down: 62.80%
Hawks move up: 37.20%


~lw3

I hesitate to question you, but how do you figure the Mavs would have a 78.46% chance to keep their pick at 5th? I'm pretty sure it's only 44.3%. 42.1% chance to move up + 2.2% to stay at 5th.

No, no, anything I do involving number-crunching on a Friday night is ALWAYS questionable!

Because the first part involved combinations of what would happen with #5 AND #6 only (the dual "either-or" scenarios of whether they'll move up into the Top 4, or not), the Hawks at #6 getting the Mavspick anyway would happen only if the Mavs at #5 (pre-lotto) had to move down, because the Hawks move up while Dallas doesn't.

The odds the #6 slot moves up to #4 (37.2%) and the odds that the #5 slot does not (100%, minus the 42.1% you noted), produces a combo scenario that I calculated at [(37.2)*(100-42.1)/100] = 21.54 (apologies to the significant-figure fans out there). That's the only of the four above situations ("#6 Moves into Top 4, #5 Does Not") under Scenario B where the Hawks get that pick, making the Mavs-keep-pick alternatives a summation of the other three situations (100-21.54) = 78.46.

But the fallacy with my myopic analysis is hiding in that 36.36% value (the "Neither #5 Nor #6 Move into Top 4" situation). That includes (1) the odds that there are no changes within the Top 4 (the #1 through #4 teams stay in the Top 4, via some combo, so no #5 or #6 movement)... AND, (2) the odds at least one team below the Hawks moves up, sending the Mavspick down below its Top-5 protection even without the Hawks moving up. The net effect on pick ownership wouldn't change under Scenario A if both picks moved down due to the Lottery results, but under Scenario B, it absolutely would.

I needed to break that down further, to allow for the odds that one or more teams in the #7 through #14 range bumped the #5 Mavspick down to a Hawks-friendly #6 or lower. I'm too lazy to do that today, but I trust that it would bring me right on back to around 56%, the 100% minus the 44.3% value you calculated by addition.

Assuming that's correct, then we're looking at merely an approximate seven-percentage-point differential improving Dallas' odds of keeping the pick, if the teams switch #5 and #6 spots between now the end of the season (37.2% under Scenario A; 44.3%, as you calculated under Scenario B). That's way less of a big deal than the more-than-doubly improved odds I calculated last night, so I'll take it!


~lw3

Lw3, will you go to Vegas with me?

[Spud2nique]

Yes sir Grizz!

[peoriabird]

Are we starting to see a pattern? Doncic plays... Dallas looses. Doncic sits...Dallas wins! Looking like a bad team all star! LOL!

[King Ken]

Mavs Win!

[jayu70]

Dallas with the Win!
Makes our win today even sweeter!

[LeftHandThriller]

Are we starting to see a pattern? Doncic plays... Dallas looses. Doncic sits...Dallas wins! Looking like a bad team all star! LOL!

Shut him down for the rest of the season!

[Spud2nique]

Mavs win!!!

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7bc973ec-bcc5-480f-9406-7ae81f0edfa3

[peoriabird]

If this trend continues, how will the experts explain it in a way that absolves their "Golden boy"?

[jayu70]

If this trend continues, how will the experts explain it in a way that absolves their "Golden boy"?

l
Well they did trade 4 starters ......but wait, they just won.

[peoriabird]

If this trend continues, how will the experts explain it in a way that absolves their "Golden boy"?

l
Well they did trade 4 starters ......but wait, they just won.

And now New York is loosing every game with those bums!

[jayu70]

If this trend continues, how will the experts explain it in a way that absolves their "Golden boy"?

l
Well they did trade 4 starters ......but wait, they just won.

And now New York is loosing every game with those bums!

NYK, Cavs, Suns are locked into the bottom 3.

[observer1995]

I honestly think Luka isn't shut down even though there's 6 games left...but regardless I think the Mavs win 2 more games...mainly because they still have Memphis twice and Phoenix. It'll be a close call but I think the Hawks end up not moving ahead of them (or behind, whichever way you want to call it)...then it'll be clench time on the ping pong balls anyway.

[peoriabird]

I honestly think Luka isn't shut down even though there's 6 games left...but regardless I think the Mavs win 2 more games...mainly because they still have Memphis twice and Phoenix. It'll be a close call but I think the Hawks end up not moving ahead of them (or behind, whichever way you want to call it)...then it'll be clench time on the ping pong balls anyway.

It depends on how many games he plays! They are good without him. They play much faster without him pounding the rock

[Buzzard]

I honestly think Luka isn't shut down even though there's 6 games left...but regardless I think the Mavs win 2 more games...mainly because they still have Memphis twice and Phoenix. It'll be a close call but I think the Hawks end up not moving ahead of them (or behind, whichever way you want to call it)...then it'll be clench time on the ping pong balls anyway.

It depends on how many games he plays! They are good without him. They play much faster without him pounding the rock

And to think it was suppose to be Trae who would dribble and shoot the basketball to much.