Is this the Worst Stretch of Thunder Basketball Since the Inaugural '08-'09 season?

1bigfan13 · Post #1 » by **1bigfan13** » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:14 pm

Sitting in my office today thinking about the current state of the franchise and it struck me that this current 45-day stretch is the quite possibly the worst stretch of basketball we've seen from the OKC Thunder since their first year in OKC.

Even during the injury riddled 2014-2015 season, Scott Brooks at least had these guys playing with some form of consistency throughout the entire year. The team never nosedived like this current version of the Thunder.

Am I overreacting and drawing a complete blank, or is this indeed the worst pile of junk the Thunder have offered up in over a decade?

Post #2 » by **ThunderBolt** » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:34 pm

I would say it’s the worst because we’re out of excuses.

1bigfan13 · Post #3 » by **1bigfan13** » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:46 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:I would say it’s the worst because we’re out of excuses.

There definitely are no excuses. As I pointed out, even during the 2014-2015 season the team never looked this bad for this long.

The frustrating part is no one seems interested in making a single adjustment. Donovan trots out the same raggedy rotations night after night. And the players play the same brand of ineffective one-on-one, stand-in-the-corner-and-watch-while-PG13-or-Westbrook-tries-to-create-something brand of basketball.

The team is just poorly coached and are led by players with low basketball IQs. It's a recipe for disaster. This organization badly needs a complete overhaul from top to bottom.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #4 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:02 am

In terms of results compared to what most fans set for expectations it is easily the worst. I'm going to go with the start of the '14-'15 season as the worst stretch. OKC started out 3-12 and went on to miss the playoffs by a game or as I remember that season missing the playoffs by an Anthony Davis half court shot.

NaturalThunder · Post #5 » by **NaturalThunder** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:15 am

Kizz Fastfists wrote:In terms of results compared to what most fans set for expectations it is easily the worst. I'm going to go with the start of the '14-'15 season as the worst stretch. OKC started out 3-12 and went on to miss the playoffs by a game or as I remember that season missing the playoffs by an Anthony Davis half court shot.

That season was extremely riddled with injuries. In hindsight, you can excuse most of that and, in hindsight, that season and stretch weren't unforgivable or frustrating. We tied for 8th in the standings but the Pelicans held the head-to-head tiebreaker. We went 47-35. The following year, our 47-35 record would've been good enough to finish something like 5th in the West.

This year, though? This is the worst stretch and most frustrating stretch since '08-'09. We spent the first 55ish games with a top 2-3 record in the West and top 5 record overall. We haven't suffered any significant injuries since the ASB. I know Paul George missed a few games but nothing sustained or serious and no other core player has been out for an extended period of time with a serious injury.

We just suck. We suck all kinds of suck right now. There are 22-25 teams in the NBA, as of March 27th, who are legitimately better than us. We've somehow gone from being a top 5 team for 2/3rds of the season to a bottom 5 team for the final 1/3rd of the season with no significant injuries.

And as I'm typing this, we're losing by 9 at the half at home to the Oladipo-less Pacers. A week and a half ago we blew a 20 point second half lead to them and tonight we're just going to straight up lose by 15-20 to them in our arena.

This team needs a new coach and a teardown. It's not working.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #6 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:54 am

NaturalThunder wrote:This team needs a new coach and a teardown. It's not working.

I've been saying this. I also am of the minority opinion that this is who this team is and so them finishing in the 45ish win range and being an easy first round exit doesn't come off as a disappointment to me. I've been screaming for a rebuild since kd ran off to worship Draymond. OKC has been the same team the last three years with just a reshuffling of the deckchairs. Given their roster, cap space and assets that isn't going to change. This year number three of them being the same team with the same results.

Post #7 » by **slick_watts** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:34 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
NaturalThunder wrote:This team needs a new coach and a teardown. It's not working.

I've been saying this. I also am of the minority opinion that this is who this team is and so them finishing in the 45ish win range and being an easy first round exit doesn't come off as a disappointment to me. I've been screaming for a rebuild since kd ran off to worship Draymond. OKC has been the same team the last three years with just a reshuffling of the deckchairs. Given their roster, cap space and assets that isn't going to change. This year number three of them being the same team with the same results.

you're not the only one!

andre roberson tearing his patellar tendon was the end for me.

JustOneFix · Post #8 » by **JustOneFix** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:53 pm

This is could all end up just well, it's still not too late. I'm pretty confident we could beat anyone in the first round outside of GS, Denver and maybe Houston. We could play against the Clippers, Blazers or Jazz and then the Rockets in the second round, or maybe even against some lower seed such as Spurs or Jazz if they suprise Denver in the first round. Everything is possible. With a little bit of luck and effort, they could end up in the WCF and give GS a scare.

SecondTake · Post #9 » by **SecondTake** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:36 pm

After yesterdays performance I'm pretty sure we're back on track for the WCF. People need to calm down, team is back on the wagon.

RunOKC · Post #10 » by **RunOKC** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:31 pm

SecondTake wrote:After yesterdays performance I'm pretty sure we're back on track for the WCF. People need to calm down, team is back on the wagon.

Loving the optimism. Hope you're right

sleestak33 · Post #11 » by **sleestak33** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 10:37 am

It's an unbelievably bad stretch especially considering how well they were playing earlier in the season. The talent is there (they're clearly a top 4 team in the West talent wise) yet they have a very low collective basketball IQ and their leader Westbrook is the worst in that regard. They could fix 80% of their issues offensively by simply having Russ never shoot more than a couple of 3 pointers per game and 20 or less for the entire team per game. I know the NBA has moved more towards shooting them but they simply can't do it and they just keep jacking them up. They have to be the worst 3 point shooting team in the league.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #12 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 11:28 am

sleestak33 wrote:They have to be the worst 3 point shooting team in the league.

Seven teams are worse. Washington and Dallas are the only two that shoot a worse percentage and take more shots from 3. LAL, Phoenix, Memphis, NY and NOLA also shoot a worse percentage. Those 7 and OKC are the only 8 teams in the NBA shooting under 35% from 3. There are 5 teams shooting 37%+, as a team, from 3 and only one of them takes more 3s per game than OKC.

NetsWorld · Post #13 » by **NetsWorld** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 12:31 pm

It has been a disaster and this is the third year post KD we are experimenting with a Westbrook led Thunder team, Westbrook needs to get his act together and stop receiving so many techs, the team needs him; the team has egged the second half of the season pretty badly and it is a shame because we went from a top two or three team in the West to a low seeded playoff team. I don't expect a first round win this year, it's time to tear the team up and bring in fresh talent.

SecondTake · Post #14 » by **SecondTake** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 1:35 pm

sleestak33 wrote:It's an unbelievably bad stretch especially considering how well they were playing earlier in the season. The talent is there (they're clearly a top 4 team in the West talent wise) yet they have a very low collective basketball IQ and their leader Westbrook is the worst in that regard. They could fix 80% of their issues offensively by simply having Russ never shoot more than a couple of 3 pointers per game and 20 or less for the entire team per game. I know the NBA has moved more towards shooting them but they simply can't do it and they just keep jacking them up. They have to be the worst 3 point shooting team in the league.

WB has been shooting three's well since the All star break so this doesn't make a lot of sense. Before the break he was jacking up 3's scoring in the mid 20%'s and we were winning. Since the all star break his efficiency has gone up substantially and we're losing. Cant blame Westbrook.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #15 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 1:54 pm

SecondTake wrote:WB has been shooting three's well since the All star break so this doesn't make a lot of sense. Before the break he was jacking up 3's scoring in the mid 20%'s and we were winning. Since the all star break his efficiency has gone up substantially and we're losing. Cant blame Westbrook.

We clearly have different definitions of "well". He is taking EIGHT 3s a game since the break and hitting 34.7%. That is NOT a good thing. It is a very high volume for someone shooting below league average even when shooting "well". I agree that you can't blame Russ for the losing any more than you could credit him for the winning. They played the easiest schedule in the NBA early on and when the schedule flipped so did their record. Which was predicted by every statistical analysis and computer model BEFORE the season. OKC was projected to have a hot start and then have a progressively worse record each month starting in January. The team is behaving almost exactly as predicted/expected.

SecondTake · Post #16 » by **SecondTake** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 2:11 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
SecondTake wrote:WB has been shooting three's well since the All star break so this doesn't make a lot of sense. Before the break he was jacking up 3's scoring in the mid 20%'s and we were winning. Since the all star break his efficiency has gone up substantially and we're losing. Cant blame Westbrook.

We clearly have different definitions of "well". He is taking EIGHT 3s a game since the break and hitting 34.7%. That is NOT a good thing. It is a very high volume for someone shooting below league average even when shooting "well". I agree that you can't blame Russ for the losing any more than you could credit him for the winning. They played the easiest schedule in the NBA early on and when the schedule flipped so did their record. Which was predicted by every statistical analysis and computer model BEFORE the season. OKC was projected to have a hot start and then have a progressively worse record each month starting in January. The team is behaving almost exactly as predicted/expected.

No one predicted this. Analysts predicted our start wouldn't be as hot as it was and our finish wouldn't be as cold as it is. This has been an utter collapse not explainable by the schedule. Regardless the only player playing better since the all star break is Westbrook. Everyone else on the team has dropped off. Adams has looked great for 3 games, but looked terrible before then.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #17 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 4:22 pm

SecondTake wrote:No one predicted this. Analysts predicted our start wouldn't be as hot as it was and our finish wouldn't be as cold as it is. This has been an utter collapse not explainable by the schedule. Regardless the only player playing better since the all star break is Westbrook. Everyone else on the team has dropped off. Adams has looked great for 3 games, but looked terrible before then.

ESPN predicted 48 wins. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24365036/nba-standings-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

Kevin Pelton had 47.2 wins. http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/24246576/projected-nba-win-totals-playoff-standings-all-30-teams-2018-19

Bleacher Report was optimistic at 51. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789744-2018-19-nba-schedule-win-loss-predictions-for-every-team#slide0

CBS sports had them at 45.9. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

EVERYONE predicted this! Teams have streaks through the season and the schedule for OKC set them up to be good early and struggle late. This team is right where it was projected in that 47 win area. They could be 1-2 win below "expectations", but it isn't like they pulled a LAL. I was talking about this MONTHS ago and idiots were screams SRS, which was irrelevant because them having the easiest schedule had led to an inflated point differential which was throwing off the simple system which ignores too many factors to be reliable with the scheduling split OKC had this year. If their schedule had been balanced their record would have been more evenly distributed and people wouldn't have gotten so high on a team that was clearly seriously flawed.

Post #18 » by **slick_watts** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 4:59 pm

an srs projection from even january 5 would have had us at around 50 wins due to the easy schedule, where a 5+ srs team would normally be in the 53-55 win range.

the defense going from 7th best all-time to worse than league average can't just be explained away by strength of schedule differences. the offense has been consistently mediocre most of the year, even when the team was in the 4-5+ srs range.

SecondTake · Post #19 » by **SecondTake** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 5:15 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
SecondTake wrote:No one predicted this. Analysts predicted our start wouldn't be as hot as it was and our finish wouldn't be as cold as it is. This has been an utter collapse not explainable by the schedule. Regardless the only player playing better since the all star break is Westbrook. Everyone else on the team has dropped off. Adams has looked great for 3 games, but looked terrible before then.

ESPN predicted 48 wins. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24365036/nba-standings-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

Kevin Pelton had 47.2 wins. http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/24246576/projected-nba-win-totals-playoff-standings-all-30-teams-2018-19

Bleacher Report was optimistic at 51. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789744-2018-19-nba-schedule-win-loss-predictions-for-every-team#slide0

CBS sports had them at 45.9. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

EVERYONE predicted this! Teams have streaks through the season and the schedule for OKC set them up to be good early and struggle late. This team is right where it was projected in that 47 win area. They could be 1-2 win below "expectations", but it isn't like they pulled a LAL. I was talking about this MONTHS ago and idiots were screams SRS, which was irrelevant because them having the easiest schedule had led to an inflated point differential which was throwing off the simple system which ignores too many factors to be reliable with the scheduling split OKC had this year. If their schedule had been balanced their record would have been more evenly distributed and people wouldn't have gotten so high on a team that was clearly seriously flawed.

These are pre season predictions. No one was predicting us winning under 50 games a few weeks before the all star break when we were fighting for the second seed. There are ebbs and flows to a season, but this is a cratering of seismic port-portions. No one in February would have predicted the thunder closing the season with one of the worst records in the league.

1bigfan13 · Post #20 » by **1bigfan13** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 10:49 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
SecondTake wrote:No one predicted this. Analysts predicted our start wouldn't be as hot as it was and our finish wouldn't be as cold as it is. This has been an utter collapse not explainable by the schedule. Regardless the only player playing better since the all star break is Westbrook. Everyone else on the team has dropped off. Adams has looked great for 3 games, but looked terrible before then.

ESPN predicted 48 wins. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24365036/nba-standings-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

Kevin Pelton had 47.2 wins. http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/24246576/projected-nba-win-totals-playoff-standings-all-30-teams-2018-19

Bleacher Report was optimistic at 51. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789744-2018-19-nba-schedule-win-loss-predictions-for-every-team#slide0

CBS sports had them at 45.9. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

EVERYONE predicted this! Teams have streaks through the season and the schedule for OKC set them up to be good early and struggle late. This team is right where it was projected in that 47 win area. They could be 1-2 win below "expectations", but it isn't like they pulled a LAL. I was talking about this MONTHS ago and idiots were screams SRS, which was irrelevant because them having the easiest schedule had led to an inflated point differential which was throwing off the simple system which ignores too many factors to be reliable with the scheduling split OKC had this year. If their schedule had been balanced their record would have been more evenly distributed and people wouldn't have gotten so high on a team that was clearly seriously flawed.

I don't completely buy this. I get what you're saying in that most analysts predicted this team to finish around the 47 win mark but there's not a single person out there who predicted that this team would literally have the 3rd worst record in the NBA the final 1/3 of the season. And when you look at some of the losses this team has suffered (home losses to lottery teams missing their best players) I think it's safe to say that the problem is deeper than just "the schedule being tougher". Do you honestly think this team playing the brand of basketball they're currently playing would have won 37 games before the All-Star break? I certainly don't.

What's happening now goes far beyond what anyone thought. After the great start to the season it's an absolute embarrassment that this team couldn't get to 50 wins. All it would have taken was for this team to play .500 ball down the stretch. If on February 14th you asked those same analysts from the links you posted what their updated predictions were, I'm willing to bet that each and every one of them would have put OKC in plus-50 win territory.